Börsipäev 20. oktoober
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Apple (AAPL) lõi eile õhtul teatatud tulemustega mäekõrguselt ootusi ning järelturul kauples aktsia oma all-time-high juures 202.5 peal, 6.6% sulgumishinnast kõrgemal. Ootusi lõi ka Texas Instruments (TXN) nii kasumi kui müügitulude osas ning TXN aktsia kauples järelturul samuti plussis. Tugevad tulemused tehnoloogiasektorist on täna hommikuks Nasdaqi futuuri viinud ca 0.9% kõrgemale.
Täna tuleb kell 15.30 USA septembrikuu ehituslubade annualiseeritud näit (ootus 595 000), ehituslubade näit (ootus 610 000), tootjahinnaindeks (ootus 0.0%) ning tuumikosa tootjahinnaindeks (ootus 0.1%).
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Täna enne turgu tulevad tulemused Coca-Colalt (KO), Peabody Energy'lt (BTU), Pfizer'lt (PFE) ja pärast turgu Yahoo!'lt (YHOO) ja Tupperware'lt (TUP).
Meie tulemuste tabelit saab vaadata siit.
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Ei tasuks ka märkamata jätta Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), BlackRock (BLK), Caterpillar (CAT), Regions Financial (RF), DuPont (DD) ja meie Balti turgu mõjutav Autoliv (ALV).
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Pisut mõtteainet ka intressimäärade teemal. Samal ajal kui Fed ja ECB on lubanud hoida intresse ülimadalatel tasemetel veel pikka aega, on Austraalia keskpank intresse juba korra tõstnud ning retoorika lubab oodata intresside edasist kasvu. Öeldakse et suurem oht on möödas ning et kui hiiglaslikule intresside langetamisele nüüd tõstmist ei järgneks, oleks monetaarpoliitika lihtsalt erapoolik...
Australia's central bank can't be too timid in raising its benchmark interest rate now that the threat of an economic crisis in the nation has passed, Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens said, pushing up the local currency. "If we were prepared to cut rates rapidly, to a very low level, in response to a threat but then were too timid to lessen that stimulus in a timely way when the threat had passed, we would have a bias in our monetary policy framework," Stevens told a function in Perth today. "Experience here and elsewhere counsels against that approach." -
Austraalias on ka Aasia-suunalt pärit commodity-nõudluse najal tegelikult viimasel ajal päris mõnus olla olnud ka majanduskasvu kontekstis...
Long AUD, CAD -
Perth - backpackers paradise?
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Einhorn shorts U.S. 'short-term thinking' - NY Post
NY Post reports David Einhorn is bullish on gold because he's bearish on Obama. Members of President Obama's prized economic team, including Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, are "quintessential short-term decision makers," Einhorn said, explaining his sudden fondness for gold. Watching Geithner, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and White House economic advisor Larry Summers on television recently, "my instinct was to short the dollar," Einhorn joked at the Value Investing Congress. Instead, he decided to invest in gold, even though futures hit a record price of $1,072 an ounce last week. Gold does well when "monetary and fiscal policies go awry," said the hedge-fund manager best known for shorting toppled investment bank Lehman Brothers. Specifically, Einhorn trashed the team's "too-big-to-fail" policy requiring taxpayers to prop up large, troubled institutions, like banks. "Our authorities have taken the view that kids will be kids," he said, comparing the officials to the parents of teenagers who know they will be rescued any time they get caught. He suggested public officials break up large financial institutions that appear on the brink of collapse rather than bail them out. Einhorn also said Geithner's regulatory reform plan was akin to efforts to stop terrorism by "frisking grandma and taking away everyone's shampoo." He scoffed at the idea that the government might try to regulate complex financial instruments like credit default swaps, believing they should be wiped out. He said regulating the swaps is like "trying to make asbestos safer."
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UBS on Apple'i ülivõimsate tulemuste järel kinnitamas aktsiale antavat ostusoovitust ning tõstab hinnasihi $265 pealt $280 peale. Deutsche tõstab oma sihi $250 peale ja Merrill Lynch $240 peale. Kõik analüüsimajad kinnitavad justkui ühest suust, et juhtkonna poolt antud prognoosid on lihtsalt konservatiivsed ning neile ei tasuks väga palju rõhku panna. Kvartal ise oli lihtsalt suurepärane...
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Caterpillar prelim $0.64 vs $0.06 First Call consensus; revs $7.3 bln vs $7.48 bln First Call consensus
Caterpillar raises FY09 EPS guidance to $1.85-2.05 vs $1.49 First Call consensus; sees revs $32-33 bln vs $33.07 bln First Call consensus. Caterpillar sees FY10 revs up 10-25% from midpoint of FY09 guidance; equates to ~$35.75-40.625 bln vs $33.14 bln First Call consensus -
Eluasemete ehituste alustamise arv on valmistamas väikest pettumust.
September Housing Starts 590K vs 610K consensus, prior revised to 587K from 598K
September Building Permits 573K vs 595K consensus, prior revised to 580K from 579K
September PPI M/M -0.6% vs 0.0% consensus
September Core PPI M/M -0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.2% -
Andrew Smithersi (Smithers & Co) hinnang QE kohta:
An end to QE before credit expansion from banks is likely to precipitate a return to recession, damaging the equity market.
An end after banks are ready to lend again is likely to cause falls in asset prices including shares, bonds, houses and gold. We expect non-financial companies and banks to be sizeable net issuers of equity over the next year or three and for this to put downward pressure on the US stock market.
With corporate debt at record high levels, this spread seems now more likely to widen than narrow.
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China Mobile posted a net profit of CNY83.94 billion ($12.31 billion) for the nine months ended Sept. 30, up 1.8% from CNY82.42 billion a year earlier. Revenue rose 8.9% to CNY326.98 billion from CNY300.12 billion after it added 51.12 million subscribers during the nine months. China Mobile's nine-month net profit came in slightly below the average forecast of CNY84.57 billion based on a DJ poll of six analysts...
China Mobile (CHL) vaevleb kasvava konkurentsi käes ja kasumikasv väga madal (kuigi jaan-sept saadi iga kuu keskmiselt 5,68 mln uut klienti).
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Tulemuste tabel nüüd hommikuste teatajatega uuendatud - kahe esimese päeva kohta pole tabelis ühtegi ettevõtet, kes oleks EPSi ootustele alla jäänud.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.10%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.04%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.18%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.20%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.40%
Venemaa MICEX +0.59%
Poola WIG +0.85%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.98%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.83%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.52%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.90%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.16%
Tai Set 50 -1.02%
India Sensex 30 -0.59% -
Respect the Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/20/2009 8:26 AM EDT
"The heart errs like the head; its errors are not any the less fatal, and we have more trouble getting free of them because of their sweetness."
-- Anatole France
You don't have to love this market. Yes, it has been extremely strong for what seems like forever and is showing few signs of slowing down, but that doesn't mean you have to like it. What you do you have to do is respect it.
I've read a number of complaints lately about how folks refuse to embrace this market. They are too skeptical, overly pessimistic and worry too much about the fallout of the stimulus and bailout plans. Despite those emotions, that seems like a very rational response; given what we have been through over the past year or so, the market has gone almost straight up. It has made fools out of anyone who has even entertained the idea that maybe some of the strength isn't fully justified.
Other than being a bit technically extended, there is absolutely nothing wrong with the way this market is acting. We might even be in the very early stages of a bull market that lasts for much longer, but that still doesn't mean that you have to love this action and celebrate its wonderfulness.
Our job as investors and traders isn't to be emotional about the market. Investors have two main duties: first and foremost, to protect capital. The second is to make money. We don't need to have strong feelings to do those things. In fact, having strong feelings usually interferes with our ability to perform our jobs well.
There are some folks who can be highly emotional and invest well, but most people who become too emotionally involved in the market eventually suffer big losses, because they are incapable of shifting their feelings as needed. If you are inclined to love the market, you are not only likely to disregard warning signs when they appear, but to attack them as being misleading and deceptive.
If you don't feel overly emotional about how well this market is acting, that is okay. However, make sure you don't fight the obvious strength either. The sin is in not respecting the strong momentum, the persistent dip buying and the strong earnings news. Those facts are obvious and trying to argue with them is very costly.
Keep in mind that strong emotions go both ways. Far worse than loving this market is hating it. At least those who insist on loving the market are riding the momentum in the right direction. I assure you that many of them will stay in love far too long, but it has been the right emotion for a while.
The best way to prosper is to stay cool, calm and objective. Respect the trend and the charts and expect momentum to last longer than you think is reasonable. Emotions will only get in the way.
We have plenty of strong earnings reports to keep this market running this morning, but it is going to be very interesting to see whether there is some 'selling the news' again, as we have had on most of the other strong reports this quarter. Technically, we are extended, but that hasn't mattered in this market in a long time. If the bears are going to gain any traction at all, they need some selling into today's parade of positive earnings.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: LXK +10.3%, AAPL +6.6%, CAT +5.9%, UAUA +5.8%, PH +5.0%, BTU +4.9%, UNH +4.7%, BK +4.7%, DD +3.7%, PFE +3.3%, DGX +3.3%, WERN +3.3%, EAT +3.0%, TXN +2.8%, STLD +2.6%, ICUI +2.3%, CCI +1.6% (light volume), COH +1.4% (light volume), TJX +1.1%... M&A news: MPS +21.7% (MPS Group to be acquired by Adecco for $13.80/share), IFLO +1.2% (Kimberly-Clark begins tender offer to acquire I-Flow Corporation)... Select large cap tech names showing strength following AAPL results: DELL +1.6%, RIMM +1.1%... Select semi related names trading higher following TXN results: CY +3.5%, NSM +1.3%, ADI +1.2%, SMH +0.8%... Select construction/ag machinery names showing strength boosted by CAT results: MTW +3.3%, DE +2.1%... Other news: BPAX +11.7% (reports 'positive' LibiGel safety data in Phase III program), NVAX +6.7% (launches clinical study of novel 2009 H1NI VLP flu vaccine in Mexico), ICGN +14.6% (describes progress in its collaboration with Pfizer to identify selective sodium channel inhibitors), BVN +5.3% (provides update on National Mining Federation strike), IVZ +4.7% (Invesco to acquire Morgan Stanley's Retail Asset Management Business, including Van Kampen Investments), RX +3.5% (Continued momentum following WSJ story out saying co is in advanced sale discussions), ITRI +2.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), SRZ +2.6% (Enters into 13th Amendment to credit agreement extending maturity date to December 2, 2010), DEO +2.6% (still checking), HGSI +1.6% (Human Genome Sciences and GlaxoSmithKline announce full presentation at ACR of positive Ph. 3 study results for BENLYSTA in systemic lupus erythematosus), MGM +1.2% (Announces $955 in Non-Cash Charges Relating to its Investment in CityCenter), BBY +1.1% (Netflix and Best Buy announce partnership to instantly stream movies over the internet via latest models of Insignia Blu-ray disc players)... Analyst comments: CTSH +4.0% (initiated with an Outperform at William Blair), SPAR +3.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Barrington), F +1.7% (upgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), FDO +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), BAC +0.8% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC).
Allapoole avanevad;
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CONN -16.9%, GAP -14.3%, MI -8.1%, BSX -6.5%, SWI -6.4%, PKG -5.8%, VLTR -5.7%, RF -5.3%, EDU -4.1% (light volume), JDAS -2.8%, SVU -2.5% (light volume), STT -2.1%, KO -2.1%, BIIB -1.8%, BMI -1.7%, ZION -1.1%... Other news: ANPI -6.1% (announces the FDA has said its 510(k) submission for Bio-Seal, stating that Bio-Seal is a class III device that requires Pre-Market Approval for FDA marketing clearance), BCS -4.3% (Qatar to sell Barclays), AIXG -2.2% (still checking), EWZ -2.1% (Brazil's finance Minister confirms govt will levy financial transactions tax on capital inflows)... Analyst comments: TNP -3.6% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), GME -3.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Janney), BA -2.7% (downgraded to Underweight at Morgan Stanley), PCS -2.4% (cut to Neutral from Buy by Goldman Sachs - DJ), PTV -1.8% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays). -
Ma olen järelturul natuke SNDK shorti võtnud @ $23.80.
Tulemused on igati head, kuskil virisemiskohta ei olem kõik on hästi.. ja iroonilisel kombel on just see probleem SNDK puhul. Kui kõik on hästi ja NAND hinnad üleval nagu praegu, siis tuleb uut tootmismahtu peale kõigi tootjate poolt.. kui tuleb tootmismaht peale, siis tulevad hinnad alla. Kui vaadata semi capex playsid, siis nende orderite järgi on viimasel ajal investeeringuid tootmisvõimsustesse suurendatud, seega peaks demand/supply tasakaal taas teisele poole tagasi liikuma ja hinnad alla.
See pole loomulikult päevade küsimus ja ilmselt järgmine kvartal on veel igati hea. Samas, eks investorid peaks vaikselt aru saama hakkama, et NAND pricingu peak on mingi lähema kvartali jooksul käes ja edasi midagi ilusat oodata pole.
Oht on muidugi see, et homme suurem osa analüütikuid kisavad, kui vinged ikka tulemused olid, korrutavad ja jagavad numbreid oma DCF -is ja saavad tulemuseks, et kui käive-kasum samamoodi kasvavad, siis järgmise aasta kasum on gazillion, nii et ilgelt hea ost on siitkohast veel. Nagu ikka, analüütikud kipuvad sellistes tsüklites natuke maha jääma..
Ja teine oht on see, et vähemalt eelmine kvartal läksid mu sellised contrarian ideed vist kõik pekki, nii et mu track record sellistes asjades on nigelapoolne :)
Katta tahaks mingi $23 juures või isegi allpool.
// krt aktsiahind kirjutamise ajal mingi 25 senti alla tulnud ja nüüd $23.56. -
Ah katsin ära @ $23.51. Millegipärast hakkas tunduma, et ma ülehindan turu võimet näha SNDK tulemustes peak NAND hindasid.. ja siis krt seda teab, mis homme aktsia teeb.
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Heh, ilmselt sai siiski vara kaetud, esimene kommentaar, mis SNDK kohta silma jäi Morgan Stanleylt:
We recommend investors to take profits after strong beat and raise 3Q results as we believe October is the seasonal peak in NAND component pricing, with Nov as flat M/M best case.
Vaatan, kui head hinda saab, siis võibolla võtan uuesti shorti.
