Börsipäev 22. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
-
Tulemuste tabel taaskord uuendatud ning EPSi osas jätkub võimas biitimine. 20. oktoobri seisuga oli 77% kõikidest raporteerinud USA ettevõtetest EPSi 3. kvartali ootusi löönud ning see peaks olema vähemalt viimase 10 aasta kõrgeim näitaja. Turud on aga närvilised ning paljudele kasumiootusi löönud ettevõtetele, kes ei suuda näidata tulude kasvu, saab osaks 'sell the news' reaktsioon.
Täna kell 15.30 avaldatakse möödunud nädala esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv, kus ootus on sarnaselt üle-eelmise nädala näidatud numbrile 515 000. Kestvate töötu abiraha taotlejate number peaks jääma napilt alla 6 miljoni. Kell 17.00 tuleb septembrikuu juhtivate indikaatorite muutus, kus ootuseks on +0.8%.
-
Täna õhtul kell 18.00 annan CityPlaza 1. korrusel LHV investeerimiskeskuses seminari USA aktsiaturgude teemal - teemaks tuleb nii USA majandus, tööjõuturu situatsioon, 3. kvartali tulemused, konkreetsed investeerimisideed ning annan ka omapoolse nägemuse sellest, et kas, mida ja millal USA turgudelt osta võiks.
-
Dick Bove on oma eileõhtust Wells Fargo (WFC) müügisoovitust kommenteerimas ka Bloombergi intervjuus. Bove ütleb, et WFC aktsia võiks kukkuda $22 kuni $25 vahemikku.
Bove toob kokku välja 4 põhjust oma müügisoovituse andmisel, millest kolmas oli muuhulgas ka mehe nägemus, et 'markets have almost topped out'.
-
Hiina börsidel oli neljapäeval näha müügisurvet, kuigi kohaliku statistikaameti sõnul kasvas majandus kolmandas kvartalis 8.9%. Analüütikud ootasid SKP kasvuks 9% ja turg on viimastel nädalatel teinud kõrgete ootuste tõttu korraliku tõusu (ostuhuvi tekitamiseks oleks pidanud SKP kasv olema ilmselt veelgi kõrgem).
Turg koondas tugeva majanduskasvu tõttu tähelepanu ka suunamuutusele Hiina liberaalses monetaarpoliitikas. Eile ütles näiteks China Merchants Banki (Hiina suuruselt viies pank) juhatuse esimees Qin Xiao, et Hiina peab uue mulli vältimiseks kiiremas korras monetaarpoliitika rangemaks muutma & intressimäärasid tõstma hakkama.
-
Paneks siia vahelduseks ka ühe graafiku. Teadupärast olid Inteli (INTC) tulemused ka optimistide ootusi ületavad ning aktsia gappis tulemuste järel uutele 52-nädala tippudele. Ometi on pärast seda olnud aga INTC aktsia pideva müügisurve all ning eilne sulgumishind $19.86 tähendab, et tulemuste-eelselt sulgumishinnalt $20.49 on kukutud juba 3% ning tulemustejärgselt avanemishinnalt $21.26 juba 6.6%.
-
Initial Claims 531 000 vs oodatud 515 000.
Continuing Claims 5 923 000 vs oodatud 5 970 000. -
USA eelturg indikeerib indeksite ca 0.3% kuni 0.4%lises miinuses avamisse. Nafta on kauplemas 1.2% madalamal ja barreli hinnaks seega $80.4.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.23%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.37%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.01%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.72%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.45%
Venemaa MICEX -1.08%
Poola WIG -0.16%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.48%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.63%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.44%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.95%
Tai Set 50 -1.24%
India Sensex 30 -1.29% -
Don't Heed the Dramatic Market Call
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/22/2009 8:48 AM EDT
Half of life is luck; the other half is discipline -- and that's the important half, for without discipline you wouldn't know what to do with luck. --Carl Zuckmeyer
Since the market bottomed back in March, we have had five meaningful pullbacks. The most severe was in June and July prior to second-quarter earnings, but each time it looked like we were about to see a major change in trend, we recovered with great vigor.
What has been most interesting about the action is how panic-buying set in once the indices found support and began to recover. Time and again, we have seen V-shaped recoveries as folks scrambled to reposition out of fear they will once again be left behind as the market continues to march higher.
The lesson here is a pretty simple one: Be very slow to assume that the trend is ending and the character of the market is changing.
One of the favorite games on Wall Street is the big, dramatic market call. Predictions that the trend is about to change garner lots of attention and allow market pundits to pontificate over weighty matters that they have been carefully contemplating. The problem is that getting the timing right is most often just a matter of luck.
Market players are usually better off just sticking with the trend and using good money-management discipline to move them in and out of the market. In other words, don't sell your stocks because of market predictions. Sell them because they are acting poorly and have reached a logical place for you to cut losses or lock in gains. Action in the individual stocks you own should be your guide to exiting the market.
One of the major benefits of focusing on individual stocks rather than major market calls is that it allows you to better handle the sector rotations that are always taking place. There are always going to be some sectors doing well while others struggle, and if you focus too much on the big market calls, you will miss out on those nuances.
After the late selloff yesterday, we should start hearing more predictions about how the market is finally going to start the long-awaited correction. The bears have been battered and bewildered lately, but a couple of days of weakness and focus on the "sell the news" tendency so far this earnings season will likely stir up a little confidence again.
It is indeed possible that a major trend change is about to occur, but I see no benefit at all in making such predictions. Just make sure you are using stops and have a disciplined approach to selling stocks that begin to struggle. Should a severe correction be at hand, you don't need to predict it in order to be safe.
We have a little bounce brewing this morning as more strong earnings reports roll in. Good earnings have not been a lasting positive catalyst lately, so I'd be slow to chase the open.
-----------------------------
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FFIV +10.5% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord Adams), JCG +10.3% (also initiated with a Buy at Jesup & Lamont), LOGI +8.7%, ALXN +7.1% (light volume), RODM +7.0%, BBX +6.5%, COHU +5.7%, AKNS +4.5% (light volume), TRV +4.1%, PNC +3.8%, XRX +3.6%, LZ +3.2%, T +2.9%, ZMH +2.8%, VMW +2.0%, NVLS +1.8% (also upgraded to Hold at Deutsche), MCD +1.8%, AMP +1.6%... M&A news: HTE +33.6% (Harvest Energy Trust agrees to C$4.1 bln sale to Korea National Oil; upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS and upgraded to Sector Perform from Underperform at RBC Capital Mkts), SDXC +21.5% (Switch & Data to be acquired by Equinix for either 0.19409 shares of Equinix stock or $19.06)... Other news: RNN +11.6% (new animal study supports Rexahn's Archexin as potent inhibitor of human cancer cell growth), KOG +7.7% (provided an interim update on its Williston Basin drilling and completion activities), ISIS +3.2% (reports positive Phase 2 data for ISIS 113715 in patients with Type 2 diabetes), SLM +2.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), LDK +2.7% (announces a supply contract with Enfinity), HCBK +0.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: LNN +4.3% (upgraded to Outperform at William Blair), MOT +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight at Weisel).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TQNT -19.8%, TEX -10.1%, NCR -10.0%, MJN -8.4%, ERIC -7.8%, BG -7.5%, ESI -7.4%, ADS -6.8%, SPAR -6.3%, NVEC -6.1%, EQIX -5.9% (also announced plan to acquire Switch and Data in a transaction valued at ~$689 million in cash and stock), AFFX -5.2%, CTXS -4.9%, MAC -4.4% (also proposed 12 mln share public offering of common stock), TSCO -3.8%, POT -3.4%, CNX -3.1%, ISIL -2.8%, QLGC -2.7%, EBAY -2.6%, AMGN -2.5%, WIRE -2.1%, CVD -1.4% (light volume), CS -1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: MT -1.8%, RTP -1.5%... Other news: RFMD -4.4% (ZTE has selected two of RFMD's dual-band transmit modules to support ZTE's S305 GSM handset), CMG -3.5% (announces proposal to convert class B stock into a single class of common stock), WTNY -1.0% (announces pricing of common stock offering of $8.00 per share)... Analyst comments: MWE -2.7% (downgraded to Mkt Perform at Wells Fargo), CHK -1.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), AEE -1.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), SAP -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral at BofA/Merrill), EOG -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS). -
Long natuke BG @ $64.
Miss suuremalt jaolt fertilizerite pealt, aga see ei huvita kedagi.. vt POT ja MOS jne.
Natuke ettevaatlikuks teeb see, et agribiz oli ka pisut kehvem oodatust, aga ilmselt ka see unustatakse kiiresti. -
Kurat, SNDK shordi magasin maha.. NAND capex playd LRCX ja NVLS mõlemad rääkisid tulemuste järgselt, et 2010 investeeritakse NAND tootmisesse hoogsalt.. ofc supply suurenemise jutu peale juba hakatakse müüma.
Tahtmine oleks kasvõi siit veel võtta, aga loodan, et tuleb mingi korralik bounce, millesse sisse shortida. -
Krt BG osas panin küll viltu.. sellised asjad töötavad täpselt senikaua kuni enam ei tööta ja nüüd vist enam ei tööta :)
Ei meeldi eriti, aga positsioon kahekordseks @ $62.5, avg $63.25.. Stop $62 juurde.
Näitan oma distsipliinipuudust :) -
Out BG @ $61.9. Rsk, see oli rumal tehing.
-
Conf callil tegelased muidugi suhteliselt positiivsed re 2010, mis kõige olulisem aktsia jaoks.. nii et ilmselt sai põhjas müüdud :)
Mõni tehing lihtsalt läheb kapitaalselt viltu vahel. -
Federal Reserve to issue today new pay guidelines to curb excessive risk at banks, according to industry source - Reuters
-
Tooraine sektoris üleostmised aasia firmade poolt jätkumas:
-------
SEOUL/NEW YORK, Oct 22 (Reuters) - South Korea ended a losing streak in overseas resource deals with the C$1.8 billion ($1.7 billion) friendly takeover of Canada's Harvest Energy Trust (HTE_u.TO), securing oil and gas reserves as well as a refinery that Harvest could not afford to expand.
In the latest in a series of acquisitions of Canadian assets by Asian state companies, Korea National Oil Corp will pay C$10 a trust unit for Harvest and assume C$2.3 billion of long-term debt.
---
Trend väikeste tegijate ülevõtmiseks töenäoliselt suureneb veelgi lähiaastail. -
Nokia kaebas Apple kohtusse,
-
BoJ sees 3rd straight year of deflation in FY11, according to Nikkei - DJ
-
Geithner says in public interest to see TARP cos return taxpayer funds as soon as possible - Reuters
Ja turg astub sammu kõrgemale. -
Seni turg käitunud nagu iga dip-i järgi ning USD kukkus taas läbi €1.50 taseme. Nafta samuti korralikult kosunud ja turul ostuhuvi hetkel üsna korralik, kuid ei tahaks eriti uskuda, et tänane päev taas nii kergelt üles ostetakse nagu tavaks on saanud. Turul hirm taas täiesti kadunud.
-
Kas hetkel hakanud Obama kõnest ka miskit liikumist tuleb?
-
PNC-l täna väga tugevad numbrid ning reaktsioon samuti väga tugev +14.5%. Tulevik veel üsna tume, kas reageeriti üle?
-
US House Panel backs earlier implementation for new credit card industry regulations; new rules would take effect Dec. 1 under House bill, moved up from February 2010 - Reuters
-
US Treasury Pay Czar rulings at 7 TARP firms cut avg executive cash compensation more than 90 pct - Reuters
Feinberg limits salary to $500K for 90% of relevant employees - DJ -
Ja paistab, et DOW-l täna siit veel selle aasta uued ametlikud tipud. Lausa uskumatu:D
-
Amazon.com prelim $0.45 vs $0.33 First Call consensus; revs $5.45 bln vs $5.03 bln First Call consensus
-
Ja AMZN spikes $102 tasemele ning kauplemas hetkel $101-102 vahemikus. 2007 aasta tipp oli $101.
Amazon.com sees Q4 revs $8.123-9.125 bln vs $8.11 bln First Call consensus
Hetkel tehti uueks tipuks $103.00 -
Broadcom prelim GAAP $0.16 vs $0.11 First Call consensus
Broadcom revs $1.25 bln vs $1.16 bln First Call consensus
Broadcom sees Q4 revs flat sequentially, which equates to ~$1.25 bln vs $1.19 bln First Call consensus -
Netflix prelim $0.52 vs $0.46 First Call consensus; revs $423.12 mln vs $419.85 mln First Call consensus
-
Amazon teenis 2007 kolmandas kvartalis 0,19 dollarit EPSi, nüüd teeniti 0,45.
1-3Q'07 teenis Amazon kasumit 0,65 dollarit aktsia kohta, 1-3Q'09 on Amazon teeninud 1,18 dollarit EPSi.
2007 oli aktsia 101, täna 103. odav värk
:)
