Börsipäev 26. oktoober
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Täna algab LHV Panga aktsiamäng Börsihai. Kes ei ole veel registreerunud, siis tehke seda siin. Esimese portfelli registreerimine on tasuta ning esikohale auhinnaks kaks tuusikut Vancouverisse taliolümpiamängudele. Tasub pingutada.
Olulisi majandusraporteid täna USAst ei avaldata. Täie hooga jätkub aga 3. kvartali tulemuste hooaeg. Enne turu avanemist teatab teiste seas oma tulemused Corning (GLW) ja Verizon (VZ) ning pärast turu sulgemist Baidu.com (BIDU) jaFlextronics (FLEX)
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NB! Pühapäeva öösel läks Eesti koos ülejäänud Euroopaga üle talveajale. USA läheb talveajale üle 1. novembril, seega sellel nädalal on USA turgudel kauplemine toimumas Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30-22.00.
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Aasia aktsiaturud olid täna enamuses rohelised ning ka USA futuurid on päeva alustanud optimisminoodilt. S&P500 ja Nasdaq100 futuurid reedesest sulgumishinnast ca 0.3% kõrgemal, nafta -0.4% at $80.1 barrelist.
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Aasia indeksitest tegi suurima tõusu Lõuna-Korea börs. Lõuna-Korea majandus kasvas viimases kvartalis +2.9% qoq (+0.6% yoy). Analüütikud ootasid majanduskasvuks 2.1% qoq (0.2% yoy) ja tugev majanduskasv oli üllatus ka riigi rahandusministrile. Korea aktsiate käekäiku kajastab USAs iShares MSCI South Korea Index (EWY).
Kui Aasias on 3Q SKP olnud tugev ka Singapuris & Hiinas, siis Euroopas valmistas reedel pettumuse Suurbritannia, kus majandus jätkas hoopis langust (-0.4% qoq). Neljapäeval avaldatakse ka USA 3Q SKP, kust analüütikud ootavad kasvuks 3.2%.
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Seagripi aktsiad täna kuumad.
Briefing.com (BCRX)
BioCryst Pharm obtains emergency use authorization for peramivir
Co announces the FDA, in response to a request from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, has issued an emergency use authorizationfor the investigational anti-viral drug intravenous peramivir in certain adult and pediatric patients with confirmed or suspected 2009 H1N1 influenza infection who are admitted to a hospital. -
Kajastame LHV Finantsportaalis tabeli vormis 3. kvartali tulemuste hooaega veel viimast nädalat - tänahommikused numbrid on juba tabelisse sisestatud ning link tulemuste tabelile on siin.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.42%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.25%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.18%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.21%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.19%
Venemaa MICEX -0.08%
Poola WIG -1.11%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.77%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.06%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.81%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.17%
Tai Set 50 +0.44%
India Sensex 30 -0.42% -
This gravitation toward risk aversion at the equity market's highest echelons is an important indicator for investors, even if they don't trade options. At a time when the stock market is up some 60% from its March lows, and "fully invested" seems to be the common expression of many investors, caution from a group typically associated with aggression is reason for pause.
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Trendspotting
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/26/2009 9:01 AM EDT
"The most successful people are those who are good at plan B."
-- James Yorke
The major indices are less than 2% off their highs, but there have been some changes in the character of the market that we need to monitor closely, not least the 'sell-the-news' tendency this earnings season. While there have been many strong earnings reports, there has also been a strong inclination to sell on those numbers. A number of key reports from the likes of Apple (AAPL) , Google (GOOG) , Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) escaped that fate and rocketed higher. These key stocks are very heavily weighted in the indices and have covered up a lot of underlying weakness in smaller stocks.
So, we have a few big-cap technology stocks sucking up all the momentum buying, while the small caps are underperforming and breaking down in many cases. This narrow action is, to a large degree, caused by big fund managers struggling to find ways to make up performance. They are being forced to go more and more to the smaller group of big-cap, high-beta stocks that all the other managers have to buy because they have put up such good numbers.
The question for us is whether the buying will broaden out again or whether this narrower market is a sign that profit taking is likely to accelerate. Market players are still inclined to play the 'buy-the-dip' game that has been in effect for months now, but are they looking at a smaller and smaller group of stocks as their go-to names?
The market top back in 2007 came as the market narrowed and focused on a few big names. That sort of action can carry us for quite a while, but it will require some adaptation. If you aren't in the few big-cap names that are garnering the attention, there won't be much else on the long side.
Another issue we have to watch carefully is the weak dollar-strong commodity trade. The decline in the dollar has provided some excellent underlying support for this market, but should it falter, there are some big profits to protect and the profit taking could be quite intense. Trying to guess when a currency trend may end is very difficult and we have had a number of indications that there is strong desire among foreign governments and central banks to prop up the dollar. Should a rally ensue, there will be a lot of pressure on oil, gold, steel and commodities in general.
The indices are up a minor amount in the early going but the news flow is slow and there isn't much going on. It's a good time to sit back and see if these trends develop further.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CRNT +7.6%, RSH +5.4%, MRVL +4.0%, TLAB +2.1%, LFC +1.9% (light volume)... Select biotech/flu related names trading higher: BCRX +11.0% (obtains emergency use authorization for peramivir), NVAX +4.0%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: IAG +2.0% (increases 2009 gold production guidance to 940k-950k ounces, an increases of 30k ounces over previous guidance), MT +1.6%, RTP +1.5%, BBL +1.1%... Select oil/gas related names showing strength: TOT +1.4%, BP +1.2%, REP +1.1%, RDS.A +1.1%, BP +1.0%... Other news: SMLC +40.8% and IGLD +34.3% (IGLD announces that its 75.3% owned subsidiary, 012 Smile.Communications, will acquire controlling interest in Bezeq), SUPG +21.8% (SuperGen and Glaxo to collaborate on discovery and development of novel epigenetic therapeutics), ELRN +20.9% (announces that a non-binding indication of interest of a third party regarding a potential acquisition of Medingo, an Elron subsidiary, has been received), IO +14.1% (ION and BGP announce joint venture for land eismic equipment; ION to receive $175 mln capital infusion), JADE +11.7% (still checking), PLX +8.3% (still checking), NVTL +3.5% (mentioned positively in Barron's), ARNA +2.5% (reports data from BLOOM Ph. 3 trial), PXD +2.0% (drills successful Eagle Ford Shale Well), AMZN +1.9% (continued momentum from Friday's 25+point jump), TDC +1.0% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: CKSW +4.7% (upgraded to Buy at Roth Capital), DT +2.0% (Oppenheimer believes expected T-Mobile price cuts were the last major price move in the '08-09 Wireless Price War), MSFT +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PVTB -15.3% , CYOU -9.0% , BGC -7.5% , SMA -7.5%, SOHU -7.1% , FMD -6.2% , AGP -3.5% , NOV -3.0%... Other news: MTXX -10.5% (discloses investor and FDA update; FDA recently indicated it is unwilling to reverse its position), KOG -6.9% (is commencing an offering of up to 10,000,000 shares of its common stock in a public offering), ING -6.7% (ING to split off insurance unit, launch rights issue; preannounces 3Q results - WSJ), TIVO -4.6% (pulling back after Friday's jump on CNBC news of possible settlement), CNC -4.4% (announced agreement resolving the litigation regarding the sale of certain UHP assets), LYG -3.8% (to sell EES to Computershare for GBP40 mln - DJ; seeks 23 bln pounds to exit state scheme - Times of London ), RBS -1.5% (to cut back reliance on APS - FT), YHOO -1.3% (Carl Icahn announces resignation from the Board of Yahoo!)... Analyst comments: PBI -3.4% (cut to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), JCG -1.5% (downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray). -
Marc Faber usub, et kümne aasta jooksul hakkavad inimesed viimaks mõistma, kui kohutavas seisus on tegelikult fiskaalne seis USA-s, kus potentsiaalselt kuni 50% maksutulust võib minna pelgalt riigivõla intresside katmiseks. Sestap leiab Faber, et dollar kaotab pikemas perspektiivis täielikult oma väärtuse. Link intervjuule.
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AMZN putid kinni, kanname lossi
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mina veel hoian
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AMZN poolt ikka väga raju liikumine, siiski opt veel lahti. Kui täna väsimusemärke ei ilmuta siis õhtul kinni.
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http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/oct2009/pi20091023_925329.htm?campaign_id=yhoo
AMZN target 135$ -
Puhtalt kõhutunde najal, ilma igasuguse erilise põhjuseta: SRS long @ average 9.36
Oli allpool 9.30 ka, aga ei jõudnud jaole. Vahepeal oli vaja börsihai portuga tegeleda ja siis poes käia... -
Turg vajub väga korralikult (otsest uudist taga pole) & SPY protsendi võrra miinuses.
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kukkumine sai vist alguse sellest: Fed mulls exit strategy.
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Dollar on päevaga ca 0.7% jagu tugevnenud... Langeb dollar, tõuseb turg ja nafta. Tugevneb dollar, langeb turg ja nafta.
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Ja noh... kui hirmutatakse, et USDi kui valuuta väärtus võib nulli kukkuda (vt Faberi video, millele Erko enne siia lingi pani), siis loomulikult peabki Fed reageerima kas või kuulukate väljalaskmisega. Isegi kui tegelikult võib-olla exit strategy juttu ise tõsiselt ei mõelda...
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U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson says expects Senate to extend homebuyer tax credit "later this week" - Reuters
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Tegu siis programmiga, mis lubab ameeriklastele kinnisvara soetamise korral maksusoodustusi ja mis pidi algselt läbi saama novembri lõpuga.
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US Senator Dodd seeks immediate rate freeze on credit cards - DJ
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Kapitalism ja turumajandus... või riigi/osariigi poolne dikteerimine ja sotsialism?
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SRS kinni @9.60
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AMZN ikka vääga tugev ja hoolimata turu korralikust miinusest lööb aina uusi tippe. Opt pos siit kinni. Sellega siis korralik ämber.
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Bank of America: Hearing added to Top Picks list at Citigroup
BAC aktsia selle peale kergelt kosumas. -
tundub et turg on stabiilsuse saavutanud ja on lootust ülespoole korrektsiooniks
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siit on ainult üks tee ja see ei lähe mitte ülespoole...
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tsiteerides klassikuid: Turg võib siit nii tõusta, kui langeda ja ma ei imestaks, kui ta külgsuunas liiguks.
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AMZN sades 125,57 kätte mõistis, et ülejäänud turg on miinuses ja hakkas ka hooga alla tulema.
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AMZN.i valus vaadata kui ikkagi alla 120 tagasi peaks tulema, hetkel radaril SNDK ja NYT
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elame näeme ütles pime ja võttis portfelli täis:)
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NYT ses mõttes et short? Ma eriti ei julgeks praegu, short interest on päris korralik ja kuu alguses ujus NYT languspäevadel väga vapralt vastuvoolu...
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Schlag, tegelikult küll mõtlesin call@10 uude aastasse, aga ei ole veel otsust langetanud
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matu111: selge, mul umbkaudu sama plaan. Mõtlesin detsembri algul märtsi calle võtta.
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No ja ongi AMZN jälle üles ostetud ja hind tõuseb hooga
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pal call 2,5 jaanuar , ehk liiga vara, eks saab näha
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ma paneks stopi trendijoone alla.
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ma paneks trendijoone
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TA mehe täppisporno: stopi paneme pivotisse.
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Tänaseks siis turg kinni kella 22:00-st, kes veel märganud ei ole.
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Natuke hilja aga:
(BIDU) Baidu.com prelim $2.07 vs $1.81 First Call consensus; revs $187.3 mln vs $187.79 mln First Call consensus
Baidu.com sees Q4 revs $174-180 mln vs $202.90 mln First Call consensus -
BIDU poolt antud tugevalt alla ootuste prognoos on just see, mis aktsia järelturul üle 12% miinusesse viinud.
