Börsipäev 28. oktoober
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Oodatust kehvem tarbimisusaldus USA-s külvas eile turgudele makropessimismi, kuna vaatamata majanduse paranevatele väljavaadetele näib majapidamistele jätkuvalt muret valmistamas just tööpuuduse kasv. Negatiivses meeleolus on täna hommikul üksikute eranditega kauplemas ka Aasia: Nikkei -1.35%, Hang Seng -1.2%, CSi 300 +0.3%, Kospi -2.4%, S&P/ASX 200 -1.4%.
Olulisemateks makrosündmusteks täna on kestvuskaupade tellimused (konsensuse ootuseks 1.0%, eelmisel kuul -2.4%) kell 14.30 ja uute majade müük septembris (konsensuse ootuseks 440 000, eelmisel kuul 429 000) kell 16.00 Eesti aja järgi.
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Barclays Capital kommenteerib positiivselt Euroopa telekomiettevõtteid:
Barclays Capital initiated coverage of the European telecom services sector at positive on Wednesday. "Operators are exiting the downturn in robust shape," the broker said. It believes that the market is under-estimating earnings recovery post the economic recession while under-levered balance sheets, stable cash flows and management discipline will mean returns improve. Increased shareholder distribution and in-market consolidation are likely, the broker added. Its key non-consensus calls are: overweight on BT, Deutsche Telekom and Cable & Wireless; underweight on Inmarsat and equalweight on Vodafone Group. The broker said that it's broadly negative on Nordic operators. Its high conviction calls are KPN, Telefonica and OTE, all rated overweight. (marketwatch)
Sektoris valuatsioon mõistlik & paljud on eelistanud tsüklilisi sektoreid telekomiettevõtetele. Selle nädala languse taustal on paljud telkode vastu taas huvi hakanud tundma & edaspidine korrektsioon peaks sinna rohkem raha meelitama. Täna tuli korralike tulemustega ka TeliaSonera, mis kaupleb Rootsi börsil 2.2% plusspoolel:
Swedish telecommunications firm TeliaSonera AB said Wednesday its third-quarter net income rose 6% to 5.04 billion Swedish kronor ($723 million) from the same period a year ago. Net sales rose 4.8% to 27.07 billion kronor. Earnings per share rose to 1.12 kronor from 1.06 kronor. The company affirmed its 2009 outlook, with net sales expected to be in line with or slightly below the level of 2008. (marketwatch)
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Apollo Group (APOL), mis teatas eile ootusi ületavatest tulemustest nii kasumi kui müügitulu osas, on eelturul ca 20% miinuses, kaubeldes täpselt $60 all. Üldiselt on tasuliste kõrgkoolide ettevõtete aktsiad olnud ühed analüütikute lemmikud, sest rasketel aegadel läheb rohkem inimesi kooli, et endale uut oskust omandada ja seeläbi tööjõuturul tugevas konkurentsis kergem kaasa rääkida oleks. Enne tulemusi oli madalaim analüüsimaja siht APOLile $65.
Koos tulemustega teatas aga APOL ka SECi poolt algatatud uurimisest ettevõtte müügitulu arvestamise praktikatesse. Sellised SECi uuringud on alati ettevõtete aktsiahindadele negatiivselt mõjuvad ning sellesttulenevalt ka tavapärasest oluliselt suurem langus aktsias.
Täna hommikul on Morgan Stanley langetanud APOLi soovituse overweight pealt equal weight peale ning hinnasihi $95 pealt $68 peale, öeldes, et $68 väärtustaks aktsia 12x 2010. aasta oodatavat kasumit ning et aktsiad kaupleksid ca 30%lise diskontoga tööstusharu suhtes, mis on ajalooliselt olnud niimoodi ettevõtetel, kes SECi uurimise alla sattunud.
Pikk jutt lühidalt - SECi-poolne uurimine on väga negatiivne areng, kuid 20%lise languse pealt võiks kiirele lühiajalisele põrkele mängimist siiski mõelda. Kas või Börsihai portfellis : ) -
kas toomsalu mängib põrkele hais?
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Esimestel päevadel on tõesti tavaliselt selline srateegia olnud, summad on veel väiksed ja risk selle võrra suurem. Kui vaadata, kes tabeli tagumisest otsast iga aasta läbi käivad, siis ilmselt ma pole üksi. Ei hakanud börsihai foorumis kirjutama, aga kui nii palju poleemikat tekitab, siis eilne miinus oli lihtsalt esmaspäeva jätk. Kella kümne ajal sõin õndsas rahus võileiba, teades, et umbes poole tunni jooksul müün maha. :) Nii nad kätte jäid ja teisipäeval avaneti korraliku gapiga alla.
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Jah Madis, sa pole tõesti üksi :)
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Käesoleval aastal Stoxx 600 indeksit üle 100% outperforminud TomTomi aktsiast lastakse täna pärast kolmanda kvartali majandustulemusi korralikult õhku välja. Aktsiale on kevadest peale tormi joostud tänud ettevõtte uuele fookusele keskenduda autosse integreeritud navigatsioonisüsteemidele ja osaliselt ka iPhone rakendusele, mis andis lootust, et liigutakse stabiilsema ärimudeli suunas ning vähendatakse sõltuvust kaasaskantavate navigatsiooniseadmete müügist.
Kuna viimane moodustab siiski 70% ettevõtte käibest ning autoäri tõotab kahel järgneval aastal lisada JPMorgani arvates käibele vaid 2-5%, võib paanikamüügi taga näha realistlikumat hinnangut firma perspektiivile. Seda eriti pärast tegevjuhi tänast kommentaari, et TomTomi personaalsete navigatsiooniseadmete hindade languse jätkumist prognoositakse ka neljandas kvartalis. Septembri seisuga oli seadme keskmine hind langenud rekordiliselt madalale (99 eurole) ning aktsionärid olid lootmas, et hind vähemalt stabiliseerub aga selle asemel olukord hoopis halveneb edasi.
TomTomi kolmanda kvartali müügitulu vähenes aastaga -15% 365 miljonile eurole ning puhaskasum -48% 31 miljoni euroni, mis lõi Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikute 29.3 miljoni eurost ootust. Tänu kulude kärpimisele on teise kvartaliga võrreldes suudetud kasumit siiski 42% võrra suurendada.
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Meie viimane 3. kvartali tulemuste tabel on nüüd taaskord uuendatud - link siin. Kui ootuste laiapõhjaline löömine esimestes tulpades on ilmne, siis tulemustele järgnenud 'sell the news' reaktsioonid viimases tulbas veelgi ilmsemad.
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Kestvuskaupade tellimused tulid vastavalt ootustele, kuid futuurid liikusid selle peale kergelt allapoole
September Durable Goods Orders +1.0% vs +1.0% consensus
September Durable Goods ex-trans +0.9% vs +0.7% consensus, prior revised to -0.4% from -0.3%
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Dreamworks Animation (DWA) saab tulemustejärgselt upgrade'i:
Dreamworks Animation upgraded to Outperform from Market at BMO Capital Markets; tgt $42 -
Bill Gross (Pimco) kirjutab siin SKP & erinevate varaklassi hindade tõusu vahelisest seosest:
A long history marred only by negative givebacks during recessions in the early 1990s, 2001–2002, and 2008–2009, produced a persistent increase in asset prices vs. nominal GDP that led to an average overall 50-year appreciation advantage of 1.3% annually. That’s another way of saying you would have been far better off investing in paper than factories or machinery or the requisite components of an educated workforce. We, in effect, were hollowing out our productive future at the expense of worthless paper such as subprimes, dotcoms, or in part, blue chip stocks and investment grade/government bonds.
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Investors must recognize that if assets appreciate with nominal GDP, a 4–5% return is about all they can expect even with abnormally low policy rates. Rage, rage, against this conclusion if you wish, but the six-month rally in risk assets – while still continuously supported by Fed and Treasury policymakers – is likely at its pinnacle. Out, out, brief candle.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.43%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.41%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.59%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.31%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.11%
Venemaa MICEX -4.06%
Poola WIG -1.19%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.35%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.33%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.58%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.68%
Tai Set 50 -1.70%
India Sensex 30 -0.43% -
Signs of Fatigue
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
10/28/2009 7:59 AM EDT
Because things are the way they are, things will not stay the way they are.
-- Bertolt Brecht
The secret to successful trading it to ride market momentum as far as you can and then quickly move out of the way once it ends. That is much harder than it sounds, because the market seldom acts in a way that feels rational. Momentum almost always lasts far longer than you think it will; when it does end, it can do so in a very abrupt manner with little warning. The problem we always have to struggle with is trying to distinguish a routine pullback from a major change in trend.
The current market has been particularly frustrating for those who have been trying to guess when the momentum might end. No reasonable person could have anticipated that the market would rally as much has it has and in the manner it has since the March low. After a once-in-a-generation collapse, we experienced a straight-up recovery of remarkable magnitude and velocity while the economy was still showing only minor signs of recovery. How could we blame folks for being very skeptical about embracing this market after what we have gone through?
Questioning whether the market move was justified on a fundamental basis would almost assure that you would be standing on the sidelines for much of the move. However, it has just kept going and going -- this has been one of the most unloved and disliked rallies that I have ever experienced.
In retrospect, it is very obvious now that a flood of liquidity caused by bailouts and stimulus drove this market. Money was being printed at a record pace to save the economy, and it had nowhere to go but into stocks. As folks realized what was happening, they become frustrated about being left out and they helped chase the market even higher as they bought every little dip or pullback.
Over the past couple of weeks, the market has started to show some signs of fatigue. The biggest change has been that good news of earnings reports has failed to drive stocks higher. The vast majority of earnings reports beat expectations, but the market has been unable to make any headway. This is the first time since March that the market has shown indications that it may have gotten ahead of itself.
Other signs of a mood change are always evident. We have a number of intraday reversals to the downside, we have closed weak on a number of days and the economic data is being viewed in a harsher light. In the early days of this rally, all that mattered from the economic numbers was that they be a little "less bad." Now the standards are a bit higher, and we aren't living up to them.
So is this the long-awaited market correction that so many have been looking for since the March low? It certainly has the feel of something more severe this time, but this market has not been kind to anyone who has been too skeptical of its strength. We may once again immediately recover and go straight back up, but the current poor action requires that we increase our caution and assume that maybe there is more downside to come.
On the way up, the smart move was to defer to the strong price action even if you had doubts about the fundamentals of this market. The trend was the key. Now that the trend is showing signs of ending, we have to make adjustments to respect that fact. If the market does find its footing and quickly turn back up, we may be standing on the sidelines feeling frustrated, but the most important thing is to see what is happening in front of you and embrace it rather than fight it.
We have more weak action in the early going this morning, but the market is oversold and I'm looking for a more aggressive bounce attempt today. Whether it lasts for long will be the real measure of market character, but we will most likely give it a try.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QTM +11.7%, WSII +11.0%, CQB +8.1%, CBI +8.0%, NATI +7.2%, RFMD +7.0%, HRS +5.4%, PEET +5.3% (also upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), PNRA +5.3%, WBC +5.0% (light volume), IP +4.9%, IDTI +4.2%, CENX +3.6%, PMTC +3.6%, NMR +3.2%, DWA +3.2% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market at BMO Capital Markets), Q +2.9%, CAVM +2.6% (light volume), DT +2.5% (light volume), V +1.9%, MCK +1.7%, CEPH +1.4%... Other news: NDAQ (light volume; introduced The NASDAQ OMX Industry Leaders Index), ELN +4.5% (Elan and Biogen announce that positive clinical data on Tysabri, it significantly reduces hospitalization rates in patients with Crohn's Disease), NFLX +1.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DAL +2.0% and CAL +1.1% (still checking)... Analyst comments: CYCC +15.8% (initiated with Buy at Merriman), PNNT +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Keefe Bruyette), WAT +2.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), EW +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman-Reuters), TGT +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), WYNN +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KSP -17.6%, APOL -17.4% (also announces Securities and Exchange Commission informal inquiry; downgraded by multiple analysts), PSYS -15.1% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Strong Buy at Raymond James), ILMN -14.8%, VCLK -14.0% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at ThinkEquity), ID -7.8%, SAP -7.4%, BWLD -6.4%, APT -5.8%, ABAX -5.4%, PUK -4.6%, WTS -4.4%, MRCY -3.9% (light volume), ETFC -3.2%... Select education related names showing weakness in sympathy with APOL: COCO -5.8%, LOPE -5.7%, CECO -4.6%, STRA -4.3%, CPLA -1.3%... Select financial related names trading lower: AIB -18.4% and IRE -16.3% (Irish bank shares sink as rescue timing worries weigh - Reuters.com), AXA -3.6%, AEG -3.2%, UBS -2.6%, AIG -2.4%, CS -1.5%, STD -1.0%, BBV -1.0%... Select metals/mining names showing weakness: RTP -3.5% (Rio Tinto completes second tranche of its investment in Ivanhoe Mines), GOLD -3.1%, BBL -2.6%, BHP -2.3%... Other news: SWSI -10.4% (announces it has commenced a 6 mln share common stock offering pursuant to an effective shelf registration; downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets ), CLDA -7.6% (announces public offering of common stock), GRMN -5.0% (TomTom's net declines 47% - WSJ), ABB -3.2% (still checking), AMD -2.9% (Ex-Chief of AMD is linked to Galleon - WSJ), KHD -2.5% (adjusts contracts at risk; backlog now at $614.8 million), AZN -1.0% (AstraZeneca pulls Zactima cancer treatment drug applications - DJ)... Analyst comments: APEI -6.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Sterne Agee), MELA -4.3% (downgraded to Hold at Roth), SNDK -2.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman-Reuters), NVDA -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Roth), MRVL -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Roth). -
Goldman Sachs reduces Q3 GDP forecast to 2.7% from 3%
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September New Home Sales 402K vs 440K consensus, M/M change -3.6%
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paganas magasin senise actioni maha. mis seal's ikka, proovime järgi võtta
SRS long average 10.16 -
kinni @10.38
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amzn uuesti lühike@124 proovime, ehk turu kukkudes liigub kaasa ikka ja kui 1050 pealt ikka põrgata üritatakse siis FAZ lühike
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Kuna ei ole täna siit foorumist veel läbi jooksnud, siis kirjutan ise. Norrast sai täna esimene riik Euroopas, kes asunud intresse kergitama. 1.25% pealt liiguti 1.50% peale. Seega Iisrael, Austraalia, Norra on juba kergitanud ning India on andnud mõista, et vaja varsti kergitada. Kas Fed ja ECB saavad tõesti hoida määrasid samal tasemel veel järgmised 12 kuud nagu paljud arvavad? Link Bloombergi loole on siin.
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General Motors to draw down on government loans in coming days, sources say - WSJ
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Väga korralik languspäev täna. V-kujuline põrge päeva sees müüdi samuti alla, mis tähendab, et dip-buyeritel on selline turu liikumine juba korralikult kõhu lahti võtnud.
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US Senate Majority Leader Reid has approved extension of home buying credit through next year - CNBC
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langus enne uut tõusu, suht norm nähtus. kaua sa ikka müüd, kunagi on vaja ostma ka hakata
