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Börsipäev 29. oktoober

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  • S&P500 indeks sooritas eile ligi 2%-lise kukkumise seda eriti verelaskmise tõttu energiasektoris, mida mõjutas negatiivselt nafta barreli odavnemine 77 dollarile. Ühtlasi on VIX viimase nädalaga hüpanud 21 punktilt 28 punkti lähedale, indikeerides investorite kasvanud riskikartlikkust. Aasias on täna globaalne müük jätkumas: Jaapan -1.8%, Hongkong -2.6%, Austraalia -2.3%, Hiina -2.1%.

    Tänase päeva fookuses on USA kolmanda kvartali SKT number, mis konsensuse arvates peaks tõusma 3.2%. Arvestades seda, et Goldman Sachs vähendas oma prognoosi eile 3%-lt 2.7%-le, võib konsensus olla väljas liiga optimistlike ootustega. Samal ajal sisemajanduse kogutoodanguga (kl 14.30) avaldatakse ka esmaste töötuabiraha taotlejate arv, millele prognoositakse edasist langust 525 000-le üle-eelmise nädala 531000-lt.   

  • Uus-Meremaa keskpank jättis ootuspäraselt intressimäära 2.5%-le ning vaatamata majanduse kasvamisele juunis lõppenud kvartalis 0.1% võrra (esimest korda 1.5 aasta jooksul), ei leia keskpanga juht, et rahapoliitika stiimulite vähendamisega oleks kiiret ja seega tõenäoliselt niipea Austraalia, Norra ja Iisraeli jälgedes veel ei astuta.
  • Kui USA-s näitas tarbimisusalduse indeksi langus esmaspäeval, et riigi majandusliku taastumise tugevus on seatud kahtluse alla, siis eurotsooni tarbijate usaldus kasvas oktoobris oodatust rohkem, jõudes septembris registreeritud 82.8 punktilt 86.2-le. Tegemist on seitsmenda järjestikulise tõusukuuga ning ületas analüütikute keskmist prognoosi 1.8 punkti võrra.

    Euroopa turud on teinud lõunaks tasa hommikused kaotused ning liiguvad enne USA majandusstatistikat nulli piirimail. USA futuurid kauplevad eilsest sulgumistasemest 0.3-0.4% kõrgemal  

  • Panen taaskord lingi meie tulemuste tabelile - antud nädalaks on selgeks saanud, et ootuste löömine kasumireal on 'uus norm' ning enamuse ettevõtte aktsiahindades on see juba sees. Tulemustejärgses reaktsioonis nüüdseks juba suurem rõhk turu liikumisel tervikuna.

  • Procter & Gamble beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line; guides FY10 EPS in-line.
    Exxon Mobil prelim Q3 EPS of $0.98 vs $1.03 First Call consensus.
  • Q3 GDP- advanced +3.5% vs +3.2% consensus, Q2 -0.7% 

    Initial Claims 530K vs 525K consensus; Continuing Claims falls to 5797 mln from 5945 mln 
    Q3 GDP Price Index- advanced +0.8% vs +1.4% consensus, Q2 0.0% 
    Q3 Core PCE- advanced +1.4% vs +1.4% consensus, Q2 +2.0% 
    Q3 Personal Consumption- advanced +3.4% vs +3.1% consensus, Q2 -0.9% 

    ...ning futuurid esimese hooga 0-st +0.8%

     

  • First Solar (FSLR) lõi küll ootusi kasumi osas, kuid top line oli nõrk. Aktsia on eelturul üle 13% miinuses ning maaslamajat on löömas veel Wedbush Morgan, kes langetab oma soovituse neutraalse peale ja hinnasihi aktsiale $170 pealt $120 peale.
  • Kes tahab 3. kvartali SKP muutuse kohta lugeda täispikka inglisekeelset pressiteadet, siis saab seda teha siit. 

    Näiteks tänu cash for clunkers programmile:

    Motor vehicle output added 1.66 percentage points to the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.19 percentage point to the second-quarter change.

  • Oodatust parema USA 3. kvartali SKP näidu peale tõusid Euroopa turud üle 1% plusspoolele.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +1.08%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.10%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.58%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.24%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +1.16%
    Venemaa MICEX +1.39%
    Poola WIG +0.52%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.83%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -2.28%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.34%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1.07%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.33%
    Tai Set 50 -2.29%
    India Sensex 30 -1.42%

  • Looking for Liquidity
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    10/29/2009 8:38 AM EDT

    Yesterday is a canceled check; tomorrow is a promissory note; today is the only cash you have -- so spend it wisely.
    -- Kay Lyons

    Over the last six trading days, the market has seen its worst action since the low in March. The DJIA and a few strong big-cap stocks disguised it to some degree, but under the surface there has been some real carnage done to individual stocks. The speculative, small-cap names in particular have suffered some major abuse, with many of these stocks going into total free fall.

    What changed? Well, the market stopped reacting positively to good earnings news; the dollar strengthened; and economic numbers such as consumer sentiment and new housing starts have stopped beating expectations.

    But the real driving force behind this market has been a flood of liquidity created by endless bailouts and stimulus programs. That has been what has been driving the very strong momentum we have seen for months. Although there seemed to have been a major disconnect between the economic views of Wall Street and Main Street, all that cash was looking for a home, and the stock market was an easy place to park it.

    That liquidity hasn't suddenly gone away, but there has been some talk the Fed may start to hint that interest rates won't stay at zero forever, and there are some big gains to protect so it has moved to the sidelines. That liquidity is a monster force, and at some point it is going to come back in and produce some spikes. The bears have fought that liquidity all the way up, and it is going to continue to be their biggest obstacle.

    My mantra has always been to respect the price action and not fight it. The last few days has been decisively negative action, and it clearly indicated that defensive measures need to be taken. Now we are technically oversold and the mood is becoming very bearish. That is supportive of a bounce, and that bounce -- which will occur at some point -- will tell us a whole lot about the nature of this market. If that liquidity is still out there and eager for a place to go, then we should see some vigor on the upside, just as we have so many times before. But if liquidity is contracting (as Goldman says in a note this morning) then the bounce will fail and a deeper downtrend will ensue.

    Goldman Sachs is saying that the amount of cash on the sidelines waiting to enter this market is only about $600 billion, which is far less than the $3.4 trillion sitting in money market accounts. Those money market accounts have been cited ever since I've started trading as being bullish for the market, but they never seem to have much real impact.

    The important point here is that if Goldman is right about inflows, that liquidity out there may not be the future driving force that the bulls are hoping.

    Third-quarter GDP came in at growth of 3.5%; that data point is going to be the driving force for a move this morning. This is an oversold market looking for an excuse to bounce and this may be the catalyst we need. I wouldn't trust it to last for long, but it will be a good trade opportunity.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GIGA +16.6%, AMSC +14.3%, CATM +10.8%, AKAM +10.6%, MED +8.7% (light volume), MOT +8.3%, LNC +7.9%, IDCC +7.7%, ARTG +6.8% (light volume), EGHT +6.4% (light volume), COCO +5.7%, XL +5.4%, ICO +5.3% (light volume), SYMC +4.9%, LSI +4.4%, JAH +4.0%, DB +3.8%, PG +2.5%, NLY +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at Sterne Agee), HBI +1.3%, AXA +1.2%... Select financial names showing strength: ING +8.4% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Morgan Stanley), RBS +8.0%, IRE +6.4%, LYG +6.2% (Lloyds TSB in advance talks to avoid govt scheme, EC talks ongoing - DJ), BCS +4.8%, PUK +4.0%, CS +2.7%, RF +2.5%, CIT +2.3% (announces accelerated process for appointing new Directors in potential prepackaged plan of reorganization), AIG +2.2% (In reversal of fortune, AIG recoups collateral - WSJ), STD +2.0%, HBC +1.7%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: BBL +3.3%, NEM +2.9%, RTP +2.3%, GOLD +2.3%, BHP +2.0%, MT +1.3%... Select casino related names ticking higher: MPEL +4.8%, LVS +1.7%... Other news: AIXG +11.4% (still checking), CYCC +11.1% (reports survival data from Phase 2 Sapacitabine study in elderly patients with acute myeloid leukemia), EXPE +7.6% (still checking), SWSI +3.9% (priced a 6 mln share common stock offering at $10.50/share), NOK (up in sympathy with MOT)... Analyst comments: GNW +3.6% (upgraded to Buy at BofA/Merrill), FITB +3.4% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), HGSI +2.8% (upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan), HAL +1.9% (initiated with Outperform at Wells Fargo).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HLIT -15.0%, FSLR -15.0% (also downgraded by multiple analysts), OMX -6.2%, OI -6.0%, MOH -5.4%, SII -5.0%, BCRX -4.7%, FLS -4.5%, ODP -4.4% (light volume), CBG -4.0%, BKC -4.0%, AEM -3.9%, AVP -3.0%, FALC -2.7% (light volume), RDS.A -2.6%, MANT -2.2%, ITRI -2.1%, E -2.0%, ABB -1.7%, CERN -1.6%, XOM -1.1%, CEO -1.0%... Select solar related names trading lower following FSLR results: CSIQ -2.6%, CY -2.1%, LDK -1.6%, SOLR -1.9%... Other news: TSPT -39.0% (receives Complete Response Letter from FDA on Intermezzo NDA), SQNM -4.4% (Xenomics files suit against Sequenom for fraud), BZ -4.0% (files for 41.4 mln share common stock offering issuable upon exercise of our warrants)... Analyst comments: ATVI -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray).
  • Jim Cramer kommenteeris eile õhtul oma Mad Money saates nii Chesapeake Energy't (CHK) kui ka Fuel Systems Solutions'it (FSYS). 5-minutilist emotsiooniderikast intervjuud ja põhjustest Crameri silmade läbi, miks CHK aktsia väärib ostmist, saab kuulata siit. Nagu olen juba korduvalt öelnud, usun ka ise, et CHK aktsia peaks olema osa iga investorit portfellist ning et seda tasub osta.


  • Joel, CHK Diluted EPS (ttm): -5.33 & Total Debt (mrq): 13.57B
  • Võlakoorem ca $13 miljardit, kuid seda on viimasel ajal pidevalt vähendatud ning eesmärgiks investment grade taseme saavutamine 2010. aasta lõpuks. 2009. ja 2010. aastal oodatakse ettevõttelt EPSi ca $2.40-$2.45, mis teeb P/Eks ca 10.0x. Kui 2009. aasta madalate maagaasihindade tõttu peaks väiksem pakkumine turgudel välja lööma 2010. aasta alguses, siis see peaks omakorda kaasa tooma kõrgemad hinnad, millest CHK kasu lõikaks.

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