Börsipäev 2. november
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Head novembri algust kõigile! Nädalavahetusel läks talveajale üle ka USA ning seetõttu on alates sellest nädalast kauplemine taas tavapärasel ajal ehk 16.30 kuni 23.00.
Makro poole pealt on USAst täna kell 17.00 tulemas septembrikuu ehituskulutuste muutus (ootus -0.2%), äsja lõppenud oktoobrikuu ISM indeks (ootus 53.0 punkti) ning septembrikuu pending home sales (ootus -0.1%).
Oma tulemused teatab eelturul Clorox (CLX), Ford (F), Fundtech (FNDT), Humana (HUM), Lowes (L) ja Sysco (SYY). Järelturul tulevad oma numbritega Anadarko Petro (APC), Avis Budget (CAR) ja Chesapeake Energy (CHK).
Varastel eelturu tundidel on USA S&P500 indeksi futuurid +0.45%, Nasdaq100 +0.2% ning nafta +0.55%. Euro on dollari vastu 0.4% tugevnenud.
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Reedel lubasin tänase börsipäeva alguses teha väikese kokkuvõte meie 3. kvartali tulemustehooaja vahendamistest - link 1. nädala, link 2. nädala ja link 3. nädala tulemustele.
1. nädalal mahtus tabelisse 31 nime. EPSi ootusi täitis või ületas 28 ettevõtet (90.3%), müügitulu ootusi täitis või ületas 22 ettevõtet (71%). Ootustele alla jäävaid prognoose andis 0 ettevõtet (0%), ootustele vastavaid prognoose 3 ettevõtet (9.7%) ja ootusi ületavid tulevikuprognoose 4 ettevõtet (12.9%). Prognoosid jättis andmata 24 ettevõtet (77.4%). Aktsiate keskmine ühepäevane tulemustejärgne liikumine oli -1.32%.
Nädalaga liikus S&P500 indeks samal ajal +1.51% ning Nasdaq100 indeks +0.67%.
2. nädalal mahtus tabelisse 98 nime. EPSi ootusi täitis või ületas 90 ettevõtet (91.8%), müügitulu ootusi täitis või ületas 74 ettevõtet (77.9%). Ootustele alla jäävaid prognoose andis 8 ettevõtet (8.2%), ootustele vastavaid prognoose 14 ettevõtet (14.3%) ja ootusi ületavid tulevikuprognoose 21 ettevõtet (21.4%). Prognoosid jättis andmata 55 ettevõtet (56.1%). Aktsiate keskmine ühepäevane tulemustejärgne liikumine oli +0.28%.
Nädalaga liikus S&P500 indeks samal ajal -0.74% ning Nasdaq100 indeks +0.82%.
3. nädalal mahtus tabelisse 77 nime. EPSi ootusi täitis või ületas 65 ettevõtet (84.4%), müügitulu ootusi täitis või ületas 45 ettevõtet (60%). Ootustele alla jäävaid prognoose andis 3 ettevõtet (3.9%), ootustele vastavaid prognoose 15 ettevõtet (19.5%) ja ootusi ületavid tulevikuprognoose 8 ettevõtet (21.4%). Prognoosid jättis andmata 51 ettevõtet (66.2%). Aktsiate keskmine ühepäevane tulemustejärgne liikumine oli -2.24%.
Nädalaga liikus S&P500 indeks samal ajal -4.02% ning Nasdaq100 indeks -4.93%.
Kokkuvõttes on S&P500 indeksi reedene sulgumishind madalaim alates 2. oktoobrist. Väga head tulemused olid juba aktsiahindadesse sisse arvestatud ning seetõttu ei suutnud enamus ettevõtteid ka väga ilusate numbrite peale enam tõusuga edasi minna ning oleme turgudel tervikuna tagasi jõudnud tulemuste-eelsele tasemele.
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FTs Rogersi arvamus dollarist (ootab dollari kallinemist & kasutab põrget dollarist väljumiseks), Hiinast (bullish, kuid aktsiaid hetkel juurde ei ostaks), toorainetest (jätkuvalt über-bullish) ja suurest pildist (ootab uusi probleeme finantssektoris).
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Kuu-kaks tagasi panin need graafikud siia foorumisse tehnikutele juba korra närida. Tollal arvasid mõned õigesti, et allapoole liikuva trendijooneni on veel ruumi küll ja turud võivad S&P500l minna gappi täitma. Millised on kommentaarid nüüd? Kas need jooned on olulised või mitte?
S&P500 indeksi liikumist jäljendava SPY 3 aasta graafik:
Nasdaq100 indeksi liikumist jäljendava QQQQ 3 aasta graafik:
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Ford Motor prelim $0.26 vs ($0.12) First Call consensus; revs $30.9 bln vs $28.31 bln First Call consensus.
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Fundtech beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus (12.98 ) Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.18 per share, $0.05 better than the First Call consensus of $0.13; revenues fell 2.9% year/year to $30.6 mln vs the $29.7 mln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $0.17-0.21, excluding non-recurring items, vs. $0.16 consensus; sees Q4 revs of $31.5-32.5 mln vs. $30.91 mln consensus.
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Doug Kass on täna poolnaljaga välja toonud 20 'majandus-on-nii-nõrk-et..' lauset, millest ühte mu lemmikut jagaks ka siin:
"The economy is so bad that my niece told me she wants to dress up as a 401(k) for Halloween so that she can turn invisible. " -
Seda Kassi linki saaks?
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m6mm..
http://www.businessinsider.com/doug-kass-20-signs-the-economy-is-terrible-2009-11 -
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.14%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.52%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.51%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.25%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.88%
Venemaa MICEX +1.08%
Poola WIG -0.67%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.31%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.61%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.70%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +2.50%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.48%
Tai Set 50 -1.30%
India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud) -
Be Careful During This Pivotal Week
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/2/2009 7:46 AM EST
Caution is the eldest child of wisdom.
-- Victor Hugo
Last week the market suffered some of the worst action since the lows of March. It wasn't just that we saw big point losses on heavy volume and poor breadth, it occurred on generally positive news flow.
The major indices actually understated how bad the action really was. Until Friday, a few bigger-cap stocks with heavy weightings in the indices, like Google (GOOG) and Amazon (AMZN) , held up relatively well and kept the pullback in the S&P 500 to about 5.6%. The Russell 2000 has corrected about 9.4%, and if you look through the charts of individual stocks, hundreds have pulled back 20% to 30% or more. Some of the former areas of hot momentum, like China-related names and small-cap biotechnology, have been destroyed.
We have had some other breakdowns during the past seven months, but each and every time it looked as if momentum to the downside would accelerate, we recovered and quickly forgot any doubts that may have existed. If you had taken some precautionary measures, you soon found yourself scrambling to find some long-side exposure once again.
This time things look a bit grimmer. That good news on earnings and data points like the Chicago PMI have been selling catalysts is a significant change in character. When good news fails to serve as a driving force, what happens when the news isn't so good?
Even though the market has had such a stellar record of quickly recovering from every pullback over these last seven months, we can't risk trusting it to act the same way again. When a market cracks like this one did last week, it demands that we take some precautions and focus on protecting our capital.
This market has made you feel foolish if anticipated any weakness, and if you have been outright bearish you have suffered some serious pain, but that doesn't mean that we don't take heed when the action was as poor as it was last week. This market may roar back yet again, but we can't count on it. Our most important responsibility is always to protect capital, and when the market breaks down that means we get out of the way first and ask questions later.
This week we have two particularly important events that will help determine our trend. On Wednesday is the interest rate decision from the Federal Open Market Committee. The key here will be whether there is any movement at all about how long interest rates will stay so low. If the Fed changes the language about how long accommodative monetary policy will be in place, that will likely lift the dollar. The weak dollar has been one of the major driving forces behind this market, so this is of major importance.
The other big event is the jobs data due on Friday. Some economists are looking for the unemployment rate to hit the 10% level, and we're likely to see even more negative sentiment if the jobs picture stays so bleak.
Despite this market's amazing resiliency in recent months, it is time to be increasingly cautious. We are not likely to go straight down, but the signs are beginning to indicate that the trend is changing.
We have a bounce brewing this morning; it will be instructive to see how well it holds. I'll be looking for some nervousness to set in again prior to the Fed announcement on Wednesday.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: KOPN +11.3% (light volume), F +5.7%... M&A news: TRA +12.5% (CF Industries offers over $40.50/share for Terra Industries, consisting of $32.00 in cash and 0.1034 in CF Industries shares--including $7.50/share dividend declared by TRA), EAC +28.5% and ENP +11.1% (light volume; Denbury Resources to acquire Encore Acquisition for $50/share)... Select financial related names showing strength: AIG +3.6% (Q3 estimate raised at Credit Suisse; firm continues to believe that there is minimal equity value embedded in its current capital structure ), BBT +2.9%, BX +2.8%, BCS +2.8%, GNW +2.4%, FITB +2.4%, HIG +2.3%, PRU +2.2%, UBS +2.1%, BAC +2.1%, FNM +1.9% (Goldman looks to buy Fannie tax credits - WSJ), DB +1.8%, JPM +1.2%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: CDE +4.9%, SLW +4.2%, ego +3.5%, hl +3.4%, AUY +3.3%, ABX +3.0%, RTP +2.8%, GOLD +2.0%, AEM +1.8%... Select biotech names seeing early strength: HGSI +36.4% (Human Genome Sciences and GlaxoSmithKline announce positive results in second of two Ph. 3 trials of BENLYSTA in systemic lupus erythematosus), WX +9.1%, APT +6.5%, PLX +5.1%, VRTX +4.6% (More than 80% of hepatitis C patients in each arm of the Phase 2 Study C208 achieved a sustained viral response with a telaprevir-based regimen according to results of an intent-to-treat analysis announced today by Vertex Pharma), AMLN +4.2% (Amylin's BYETTA approved for expanded use as first-line treatment for type 2 diabetes), DNDN +4.4% (Completes Submission of Biologics License Application for PROVENGE), NVAX +2.0% (reports positive data for its Trivalent Seasonal Influenza (VLP) vaccine candidate in a second Phase II Study)... Select China names trading higher: LFC +4.7%, CEO +3.9%, CHU +2.0%, CHL +1.7%... Other news: AMED +4.7% (releases report from Marwood Group Advisory; Marwood believes co has implemented compliance and quality improvement processes that meet and/or exceed the industry average), NOK +2.3% (still checking), ASML +2.2% (still checking), ABB +1.9% (still checking)... Analyst comments: UFS +4.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Jefferies and upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), ALU +4.3% (upgraded to Hold at RBS), MOT +3.9% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), CS +2.3% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), YUM +2.0% (upgraded to Outperform at RBC), SAP +1.4% (upgraded to Buy at Societe Generale).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NICE -4.6%... Select European financials showing weakness: AIB -11.8%, RBS -7.0% (RBS likely to pay higher insurance fee - WSJ), IRE -4.0%, ING -1.9%, LYG -1.3%... Other news: CIT -44.4% (approves proceeding with prepackaged plan of reorganization with support of debtholders), GTXI -31.0% (receives Complete Response Letter from FDA for Toremifene 80 mg New Drug Application), LDK -9.3% (seeing early weakness with Bloomberg reporting that Q-Cells terminated its supply agreement with LDK), BEAT -6.9% (CardioNet provides update on mobile cardiovascular telemetry reimbursement)... Analyst comments: RIMM -2.6% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), GERN -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), PALM -1.6% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup). -
Makro tugev:
October ISM Manufacturing 55.7 vs 53.0 consensus, September 52.6
September Pending Home Sales M/M +6.1% vs. 0.0% consensus
Sept Construction Spending M/M +0.8% vs -0.2% consensus; Prior revised to -.10% from +0.8% -
LDK pikaks, stoppi 5 peale kui ära kukub
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REV läks mööda vähe, loodan et teised sama viga ei teinud
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REV läks mööda vähe, loodan et teised sama viga ei teinud
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Täna peale turgu CHK tulemustega. Millised on ootused?
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ISM data rules out a W-shaped recovery
"Time will tell whether we will have a V-shaped recovery or not, but the data today do tend to rule out a W-shaped recovery or new recession," said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. "Manufacturing has fully shaken off the financial market blow struck by the Lehman bankruptcy last fall. Main Street is very much open for business on the brightening economic outlook. All eyes are now on the Fed as they meet later this week." -
Stanley Works ostab Black & Deckeri (BDK). Oli too vist kunagi ka Pro soovitus. BDK järelturul 22% tõusus, $58 juures.
