Börsipäev 4. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Tänase päeva tähtsaimaks sündmuseks on Eesti aja järgi kella 21.15ne Föderaalreservi intressimäära otsus. Seda, et määrad muutumatuks jäetakse, teavad kõik, kuid küsimus on selles, kas jätkatakse oma kommentaarides sama liini, kus öeldakse, et intressimäärad jäävad ülimadalatele tasemetele väga kauaks ajaks või võetakse see sõna 'väga' sealt avaldusest ära, et hakata tasapisi turge harjutama mõttega, et järgmise aasta jooksul tuleb millalgi ka määrasid tõstma hakata.
Kell 15.15 tuleb ADP oktoobrikuu tööjõumuutuse raport, kust oodatakse -190 000list näitu. Kell 17.00 tuleb ISM oktoobrikuu teenindusindeks, kust oodatakse 51.5 punktilist näitu - septembris oli see 50.9.
Eelturg USAs on hetkel ca +0.3% kuni +0.4%. -
Venemaa börsid täna suletud.
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France Telecom SA, Europe’s third- largest phone company, was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which cited the stock’s “attractive valuation.”
Kattub ka meie arvamusega, et madalama riskiga telekomisektoris leiab hetkel soodsalt väärtust.
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Jim Rogers on selgelt aktsiate ja toormaterjalide pullide poole peal - link tema viimasele intervjuule Bloombergis siin.
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Rogersiga seoses meenub ühe sõbraliku prantslase kevadel välja öeldud pirn...
"Roubini has predicted seven of the last three recessions."
:-D -
October ADP Employment Change -203K vs -198K consensus
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Citi on positiivne järgneva kolme kuu lõikes Nokia suhtes & soovitab müüa Ericssoni:
Buy Nokia / Sell Ericsson 105% calls to Dec-09 for c3% of spot — We suggest buying vol on Nokia ahead of its capital markets day on December 2nd, when it updates on initiatives to recover market share and cut costs. We suggest selling vol on Ericsson given that cautious capex commentary through the telcoreporting season and FX headwinds are likely to hold the shares back.
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Nafta on kauplemas protsendi jagu kõrgemal ning sellega on taas läbi mindud $80 tasemest kõrgemale. Euroopa indeksid +1% kuni +1.5% ning ka USA tähsamad indeksid tõotavad avaneda kuskil +0.6% kuni +0.8% juures.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.48%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.83%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.01%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.89%
Rootsi OMX 30 +1.54%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG +1.58%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.42%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.76%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.46%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.64%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.07%
Tai Set 50 +3.02%
India Sensex 30 +3.29% -
Fed Day May Provide an Upside Catalyst
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/4/2009 7:31 AM EST
Let us all be happy, and live within our means, even if we have to borrow the money to do it with.
-- Artemus Ward
The primary driving force behind the market rally since the low in March has been record low interest rates. In order to prop up the economy, the Fed has flooded the market with cheap dollars that have few places to go besides the stock market. This massive liquidity has overshadowed any negatives that may have existed and have made the bears look foolish for relying on fundamental arguments.
Despite this liquidity, the market has seen a change in tone over the last couple of weeks. One of the catalysts for the weaker action was an article in the Financial Times that speculated that maybe the Fed was close to giving a signal that they might not keep rates at near zero indefinitely.
The key language in recent FOMC policy statements has been that the Fed "continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period." If that phrase is modified, especially the word "extended," it is likely to result in a significant market reaction.
The bearish thinking here is that if the FOMC signals that it is thinking about trying to drain liquidity, then it is an indication that there is concern about inflation. The bulls will argue that the Fed wouldn't even think of raising rates unless they felt the economy was improving, but fear of inflation is the biggest fear of the market.
I believe it is very unlikely that the FOMC will make any changes in its policy at this time. The economic recovery is still too fragile and there are few signs of inflationary pressures. Many economists and market pundits believe it would be good for the Fed to be more aggressive in raising rates, but they aren't going to have any influence.
I suspect we may see a relief rally if the FOMC leaves things unchanged. We are a bit oversold and conditions are positive for some sort of bounce.
The last FOMC interest rate announcement back on Sept. 23 triggered a very nasty market reversal. The market had run up for a couple of weeks prior to the event and then we reversed hard on the news. The interesting thing about the reversal was that there was nothing at all surprising in the policy statement. Market players were simply looking for an excuse to sell, and the Fed provided one.
That was the only time in 2009 that the market reacted unfavorably to the Fed. We have had a pattern of very strong action on FOMC announcement days. Given that this market has been struggling lately, the Fed could easily serve as a positive catalyst this time.
We have some positive action on the screens in the very early going this morning. Overseas markets have been bouncing and the dollar continues to weaken and drive up oil- and commodity-related stocks.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PACR +25.5%, SGY +10.6%, HIG +5.8%, HLS +5.8%, RDN +5.6%, DRIV +5.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), GRMN +5.1%, INT +5.0%, EXM +4.8%, BIO +4.7%, CMCSK +3.8% and CMCSA +2.8%, TWX +2.3%, OSTK +2.2% (light volume), CHSI +2.0%... Select financials showing strength: IRE +10.6% (Bank of Ireland 1H net -73%, outlook "challenging" - DJ), MBI +4.1%, RBS +2.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Exane BNP), AIB +2.6%, ING +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at RBS), BAC +1.7%, BCS +1.6%, UBS +1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: NG +6.6%, GOLD +3.1%, HMY +2.6%, VALE +2.5%, MT +1.6%, GG +1.4%, BBL +1.2%, RTP +1.0%... Select Indian related names trading higher: SLT +5.8%, IBN +4.9%... Select casino names seeing early strength: MPEL +3.6%, MGM +3.1%, LVS +2.5%, WYNN +2.2%... Other news: GNVC +50.0% (FDA grants orphan drug designation for TNFerade), TPGI +20.4% (postponed its previously announced public offering of 22 million shares of common stock due to unfavorable market conditions), RXII +18.9% (will present data exemplifying the robust performance of RXi's self-delivering rxRNAs), VCGH +18.6% (forms special committee in response to acquisition proposal), NXTM +8.7% (still checking), BMTI +7.7% (receives first orthopedic marketing approval for Augment Bone Graft), WCG +6.4% (Bloomberg reported that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) announced that WellCare's suspension from marketing Medicare Advantage and PDP plans has been lifted), ALU +5.7% (still checking), RHB +2.9% (RehabCare announces definitive agreement to merge with Triumph HealthCare for a purchase price of $570 mln; upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), UTEK +2.3% (receives follow-on order for TSV Applications), LNC +2.1% (up insympathy with HIG), DIS +1.4% (Walt Disney takes China stride as Shanghai park gets nod - Reuters.com)... Analyst comments: EOG +2.4% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), HL +2.3% (upgraded to Neutral at UBS), GET +1.7% (upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wells Fargo and upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at FBR), GAME +1.5% (initiated with an Overweight at JP Morgan), BCR +1.3% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: STEC -34.3% (also downgraded by multiple analysts), CT -13.5% (light volume), VG -12.4%, TRLG -10.2%, CRL -7.0%, ALVR -5.6%, MXWL -5.1% (also downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), DLB -4.5%, BHI -4.4%, MYGN -4.1%, CNW -4.0% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), HSIC -3.8%, LIZ -3.3%, KFT -3.1%, EP -1.5%... Other news: JAVA -2.5% (Oracle braced for Brussels objection on Sun deal - FT.com), RDS.A -1.3% (trading ex dividend), F -1.6% (announces pricing results of convertible notes offering). -
pāeva lause dailyfx.com poistelt:
AUD: Bad US data = Aud Rally; Good US data = Aud Rally; Good data Australia = Aud Rally; Bad data Australia = Aud Rally. Unreal! -
SEC's Schapiro says hopes to consider short selling 'uptick rule' proposals in 'next couple of months'
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October ISM Services 50.6 vs 51.5 consensus, September 50.9
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Aeg ennustusteks sõbrad. Mis te arvate, kas Föderaalreserv muudab oma sõnastust, et intressimäärad jäävad väga madalalae tasemele väga pikaks ajaks? Ja kuidas turud võiksid sellele kõigele reageerida? Volatiilne liikumine päeva teises pooles peaks olema igaljuhul garanteeritud.
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Finants täna turust kergelt nõrgem, ootaks õhtuks pigem "sell the news" reaktsiooni.
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Kui midagi negatiivset ei öelda, siis pidi põrge üles tulema. Neutraalne pidi ka põrkeks sobima.
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Fed Decision – 4 Scenarios
http://www.forexcrunch.com/fed-decision-4-scenarios/
Here are 4 possible scenarios and the probability:
1. Talk of slow recovery / bad job market:The American job market is still in trouble, with the unemployment rate very close to 10%. Today’s ADP Non-Farm Employment Change showed a loss of 203K jobs, below expectations. If the focus is on jobs, than recovery is too slow. Needless to say, a rate hike isn’t in the horizon. Slow recovery means fear, and then last week’s dollar strength might turn into a long term trend. Roubini’s scary words of “the mother of all bubbles” will echo, and the dollar will see an influx of buyers seeking for a safe haven. In this case, also the Yen will be sought after, giving an opportunity to short the Yen crosses. Probability: Medium.
2. Talk of recovery with no rate hike: If Ben Bernanke focuses on the good GDP, and no inflation, he sees the full half of the glass. The fear that ruled last week will fade away, the dollar will resume the fall, and last week’s panic will be forgotten. Probability: Medium.
3. Talk of recovery and fear of rising oil prices: In such a scenario, Bernanke also sees the full half of the glass, but will focus on inflation, and open the door for a future rate hike. In such a case, the dollar will gain strength from a possible boost from the interest rate. Probability: Low.
4. Repeat of the last statement: If the FOMC doesn’t supply any news, there will be high volatility, but no long term effect on forex trading. A non-event will be forgotten, and will leave the focus on Friday’s Non-Farm Payrolls. Probability: High. -
Turg üsna optimistlik, kuid RUT nõrgalt käitumas ja finants (XLF) samuti vaevu plusspoolel püsimas.
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LEAK: Fed To Keep Rates Low, Announce End To Purchase Of Treasuries
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The Federal Reserve will reaffirm its low interest rate policy later this afternoon, a person inside the Federal Reserve said.
The central bankers are fearful that any change to the wording of its interest rate policy or economic outlook will cause a huge panic in the stock market, the person said. As a result, it is highly likely the wording about interest rate policy will not change at all. -
FAS/FAZ liiguvad imelikult täna ?
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Ei liigu nagu või mis?
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To:matu111
FAS ja FAZ jälgivad Russell 1000 Financial service RGS Indexit ($RIFIN), mis tiirutab 752 punkti juures, eilne sulgemishind 749.96 punkti. -
Toornafta vajus hetk tagasi punasesse ja RUT teeb päeva põhju. S&P 500 üritab juba mitmendat korda põrgata 1055 pealt.
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As expected, FOMC leaves Fed Funds target at 0.00-0.25%
Fed says reaffirms promise to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period
Fed says will purchase about $175 bln of Agency debt
FOMC says Econ activity has continued to pick up
FOMC says Econ activity likely to remain weak for some time -
18. nov avaldatav CPI saab üsna huvitav olema.
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Peale FED-i otsust turg ikka täitsa sassis, hirmus saagimine käib.
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Kui ma õigesti mäletan, on aktsiaturud lõpetanud Fedi päeval 2009. aastal päeva miinuses üksnes eelmisel kuul. Tänane päeva lõpp on igaljuhul küll väga rabistamiseks läinud, nii et võimalik, et saame ka teise negatiivse Fedi päeva sel aastal...
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Cisco Systems prelim $0.36 vs $0.31 First Call consensus; revs $9 bln vs $8.74 bln First Call consensus
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Mulle ei meenu hetkel, et ükski firma oleks varem teinud 10B buybacki. 5B küll. Või suudab leida keegi varasemast ajast 10B+ buybacki?
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24 alt ja juurest tundub CSCO buy olevat. but what do i know. eks homme avanemisel ole näha
