Börsipäev 9. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Alanud börsinädal on USAst tulenevate makroandmete poolest väga vaene. Alles neljapäeval näeme, kas vähenemise trend esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate registreerimisel on paika pidamas või mitte ning reedel näeme, kas novembri keskpaigas on Michigani sentimendi indeks kuutagusega võrreldes tõusnud ja kui palju.
Enne USA turu avanemist peaks oma viimase kvartali tulemused teatama Tesoro (TSO) ja Western Refining (WRN) ning pärast turu sulgemist Clear Channel Outdoor (CCO), Electronic Arts (ERTS), Fluor (F) jt.
USA tähtsamate indeksite futuurid on varastel hommikutundidel ca 0.4% plussis ning nafta +1.3% @ $78.5. -
Stocker juhtis Mehhiko lahes möllavale orkaan Idale reedeses foorumis tähelepanu juba nädalavahetusel. Tegu siis hetkel 2. kategooria orkaaniga ja praeguste prognooside kohaselt peaks see Galvestoni ja New Orleansi vahel asuvast tihedast puurtornide võrgustikust mööda minema, kuid kui orkaan peaks tugevnema ja kalduma lääne poole, võib see pahandust siiski korda saata küll.
Tegin kiiresti ka ühe illustratiivse graafiku orkaan Katrina ja orkaan Ida teekondadest puurtornide graafiku peal. Punaste joontega olen ära piiranud National Hurricane Center'i prognoosid suurimast orkaanimõjust ning musta joonega olen tähistanud siis orkaanikeskme prognoositud liikumist. National Hurricane Centeri koduleheküljelt saab jälgida uuendusi orkaani teekonna muutumisel. Link siin.
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Kuld kõikide aegade rekord 1108 USD/oz
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Euroopa turud on tugevalt plusspoolel, USA S&P500 indeksi futuurid on tõusnud juba 1.1% plussi ning euro on tugevnenud dollari vastu juba terve protsendi ning EUR/USD kauplemas tasemel 1.50.
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Bloomberg on välja toonud USA valitsuse ja Föderaalreservi poolt antud laenude ja garantiide kogumahu, et tagada senise süsteemi püsimist - $11.6 triljonit.
The government and Federal Reserve have also lent, spent, or guaranteed $11.6 trillion to revive the world’s largest economy after the collapse of subprime mortgages froze credit markets in August 2007. -
Euroopa ettevõtete 3Q tulemused on võrreldes USAga olnud ootuste täitmisel selgelt kehvemad:
According to Bloomberg, 249 companies of the Stoxx 600 have reported their Q3 2009earnings so far. 51% of the companies beat the market expectation of the revenueswhile the other 49% missed it. 60% of the companies beat the EPS expectations of themarket while the other 40% missed it.
In the US, according to Thomson, of the 440 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings to date for Q3 2009, 80% have reported earnings above market expectations. US companies benefit from theweak USD whereas their European competitors suffer. In addition, unit labour costs in the UShave recently seen the strongest decline since 1948, by 3.6%.
Marketwatch toob välja, et kui USAs soovituste tõstmine jätkub, siis Euroopas oli oktoobris soovituste langetamist rohkem kui tõstmist:
"Latest readings show the U.S. earnings revisions ratio continuing to increase, thanks in large part to the strong third-quarter results season. But in Europe, particularly euro-land, momentum has slipped during October with more downgrades than upgrades again..."
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Tänase päeva olulisimaks makroinfoks Euroopas oli Saksamaa tööstustoodangu muutus oktoobris, mis paranes septembriga võrreldes 2.7% ning seega tublisti üle 1%-lise ootuse. Ka ekspordi 3.8%-line kasv osutus positiivsemaks võrreldes ootustega, mis annab alust arvata, et Euroopa Keskpank võiks detsembris eurotsooni majanduskasvu prognoose ülespoole korrigeerida.
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AMZN jaoks negatiivsed uudised konkurendilt BKS:
Barnes & Noble (BKS): Heavy demand delays some orders for Barnes & Noble e-Book Reader - WSJ
WSJ reports demand for Barnes & Noble's yet-to-be-released electronic-book reader is so strong that the retailer is telling customers that new pre-orders won't ship until Dec. 11. In October, the nation's largest bookstore chain told its first wave of customers for the $259 Nook that the wireless device would ship Nov. 30. A second wave of customers was told it would ship Dec. 7. Now new customers are being told that their pre-orders will ship Dec. 11. "Demand for the product in our stores and online has surpassed our expectations," said Mary Ellen Keating, a spokeswoman for Barnes & Noble. She declined to say how many Nooks have been pre-ordered since the retailer introduced the Nook on Oct. 20. Ms. Keating said initial pre-orders will be shipped on Nov. 30 as promised. However, there has been so much interest in the Nook that customers who preorder the $259 device now will have to wait a little longer to receive them. "We are working hard to meet demand for the holidays," she added.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.64%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.44%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1.39%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.10%
Rootsi OMX 30 +1.13%
Venemaa MICEX +3.94%
Poola WIG +1.98%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.20%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.73%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.37%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.16%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.36%
Tai Set 50 +2.40%
India Sensex 30 +2.11% -
Aga tänane Rev Shark?
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Velikij, rahuldame nõudlust : )
Straight-Up Action Could Trap the Bears Again
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/9/2009 7:57 AM EST
Rules are mostly made to be broken and are too often for the lazy to hide behind.
-- General Douglas MacArthur
With a strong open this morning, the major indices are looking for their sixth straight day of gains. This follows some ugly technical action at the end of October that had many thinking that a long-awaited correction was finally at hand.
This straight-up bounce on mediocre volume is technically questionable, but this market has consistently produced this sort of action. We had identical straight-up bounces at the beginning of July, September and October, and in each case we just kept running until we made new highs.
The tricky part about this action is that technical analysis tells us that stocks usually don't recover so quickly and easily after the sort of selling that we have seen since we topped out a couple weeks ago. You expect buyers to be a bit more hesitant and for there to be at least some momentary hesitation to cut through technical overhead.
I went through hundreds of charts of individual stocks this weekend, and the vast majority were short-side setups. They had broken down in mid-October and then bounced back to resistance levels on lighter volume. That is a pattern that you'd normally be looking to short, but in this market it hasn't worked at all.
The main reason the market keeps producing these very vigorous recoveries is that there is just too much liquidity out there looking for a place to go. Once we start to bounce, the fear of being left behind drives market players to pile back in and scare the bears yet again.
The great dilemma is that if you are using a disciplined approach based on charts, you never see good entry points for longs. We go directly from a technical breakdown and very poor action to straight-up action and a complete recovery. That is great if you are an unwavering bull, but it's very tricky if you are trying to use charts to navigate.
The poor jobs report from Friday is being forgotten as the market focuses on some good economic news out of Germany and the G-20 economic news out of Scotland. Apparently the market likes the statement that countries have agreed to "continue to provide support for the economy until the recovery is assured."
It is always difficult to trust strong opens on Monday mornings, but in this market environment, once we start running there is no looking back. If the bears are going to do something, they need a strong reversal here -- otherwise, it's looking like predictions that we have seen the highs of the year will be proved wrong yet again.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DISH +6.0%, FUQI +5.4%, TTI +4.5% (light volume), ASX +2.1% (light volume), VE +2.0%, MCD +1.0%... Select financial names showing strength: RBS +3.8%, AIG +3.2%, ING +3.1%, CS +2.7%, BCS +2.7%, DB +2.5%, UBS +2.3%, C +1.7%, GS +1.3% (Treasury blocks the sale of tax credits by Fannie - WSJ)... Select metals/mining related names seeing early strength: RTP +5.5%, GFI +4.5%, BBL +4.4%, MT +4.3%, SLW +4.1%, BHP +3.9%, HMY +2.9%, GG +2.2%, VALE +2.2%, ABX +2.1%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: STO +2.9%, E +2.5%, BP +2.4%, PTR +2.3%, RDS.B +2.2%, RIG +2.1%, PBR +2.0%, RDS.A +1.9%, SLB +1.7%... Other news: EWBC +19.3% (has acquired the banking operations of United Commercial Bank; upgraded to Hold from Sell at Sandler O'Neill), CGEN +18.5% (announces discovery of genetic biomarker for predisposition to Type 2 Diabetes), ARIA +10.6% (still checking), SAY +8.8% (still checking), RSH +8.1% (will introduce Apple's iPhone 3G and iPhone 3GS in a limited number of company-owned stores; upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), FSLR +2.0% (Balancing energy needs and material hazards - NY Times), MO +1.7% (Altria has a lush dividend and a best-selling product; now just needs a plan to get investors back on board -- Barron's), SHW +1.3% (Look for Sherwin-Williams to paint the town red once the economic recovery kicks into high gear -- Barron's)... Analyst comments: ARIA +10.6% ( upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), ANF +6.3% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), ADBE +3.3% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- DJ), BX +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), MRK +1.7% (light volume; upgraded to Outperform at Leerink Swann), AZN +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at RBS).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CHDX -22.9%, ENG -12.3%, HOGS -8.3%, SRZ -7.2% (light volume), ENER -3.4%... Select managed care related names showing weakness: WLP -2.0%, HUM -1.7%, UNH -1.4%, AET -1.0%... Other news: KCAP -9.4% (delays filing of third quarter report on form 10-Q), XNPT -5.7% (Xenoport and GlaxoSmithKline announced that the FDA has extended the original PDUFA goal date), NAT -4.8% (agreed to acquire its eighteenth vessel, a double-hull suezmax tanker built in a first class Far Eastern shipyard in 2002 for a purchase price of $51.5 million)... Analyst comments: VRSN -2.8% (cut to Sell at Goldman- Reuters), RIMM -0.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Positive at Susquehanna Financial). -
Optsioonidest jäi silma:
Ultra Real Estate ProShares (URE) Nov 5 puts are seeing interest with 4450 contracts trading vs. open int of 26.5K, pushing implied vol up around 16 points to ~94%;
Puttide ostuhuvi pole tükk aega näha olnud. -
Bank of America (BAC) extends $184 bln in credit in third quarter
Aktsia rühib selle peale ülespoole. -
$40 bln 3-year Note Auction: Yield 1.404% (1.419% expected); Bid/Cover 3.33x (10-auction avg 2.63x, prior 2.76x); Indirect Bidders 68.5% (10-auction avg 45.3%, prior 49.1%)
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Fed says 9 of 10 banks ordered to raise capital in May have met or exceeded required capital buffers; only exception, GMAC, is expected to meet remaining capital need by accessing TARP auto industry financing program - Reuters
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Päris huvitav kauplemissessioon. Everlasting strength. Kui S&P500 ja Nasdaq100 indeksil on uued 52-nädala tipud veel löömata, siis Dow Jones 30 Tööstusindeks on kauplemas veenvalt uutel 52 nädala tippudel 10 200 punkti peal.
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Sequenom prelim ($0.24) vs ($0.28) First Call consensus; revs $9.2 mln vs $8.54 mln First Call consensus
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Electronic Arts prelim $0.06 vs $0.07 First Call consensus; revs $1.15 bln vs $1.13 bln First Call consensus
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Electronic Arts sees FY10 $0.70-1.00 vs $0.89 First Call consensus; sees revs $4.2-4.4 bln vs $4.26 bln First Call consensus
