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Börsipäev 16. november

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Kätte on jõudnud Börsihai võistluse viimane kauplemisnädal. Kuna sel nädalal on ka ohtralt makrouudiseid tulemas, mis turgu liigutada võiksid, peaks see nädal huvitav tulema. Täna kell 15.30 teatatakse USA oktoobrikuu jaemüügi näitajad (ootus +0.9%, ilma autodeta +0.4%). Samuti teatatakse kell 15.30 novembrikuu Empire Manufacturing Index, kust oodatakse 30.0 punktilist näitu.

    Ööga on EUR/USD tugevnenud ca 0.4% ja jõudnud tasemel 1.4975. Dollari nõrgenemine on omakorda katalüsaatoriks USA aktsiaturgude tõusule ning varasel eelturul on S&P500 indeksi futuurid +0.65% @ 1099 punkti ning Nasdaq100 futuurid +0.6%. Nafta on +1.3% @ $77.3.

  • Ärimaailma kaks suurkuju Warren Buffett ja Bill Gates osalesid eelmisel nädalal Columbia ülikoolis CNBC korraldatud seminaril, kus tulevastele äriliidrile jagati oma teadmisi, käsitledes mitmeid erinevaid valdkondasid. Palju õpetlikku lugemist ning seda läbi Buffettile omase huumori. Link transcrpitlile 
  • Hoolimata vastakatest arvamustest on HSBC arvates Hiina oma USA võlakirjaportfelliga rahul - link. 

  • November Empire Manufacturing 23.51 vs 30.00 consensus, October 34.57

    October Retail Sales ex auto +0.2% vs +0.4%, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.5%

    October Retail Sales +1.4% vs +0.9% consensus, prior revised to -2.3% from -1.5% 

  • Kuna koosoleku tõttu ei saanud Rev Sharki postitust õigel ajal üles panna, teen seda tagantjärele nüüd:

    Monday Morning Optimism
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    11/16/2009 7:58 AM EST

    The trouble with people is not that they don't know, but that they know so much that ain't so.

    -- Josh Billings

    One of the things that make the present market so difficult to navigate is that there is an unusually strong motivation to try to anticipate weakness. People keep looking for negatives that may exist, but just haven't mattered. We have rallied so much for so long and there is still so much economic uncertainty that is very difficult to not dwell on when we might see some weakness once again.

    In the last several weeks, the senior indices once again pulled off the remarkable feat of a straight-up move to new annual highs after a near breakdown. We have seen this happen at least a half-dozen times since March and, each time, we roll over the bears and send the underinvested bulls scrambling to try to catch up once again.

    It has been a truly historic rally and even more so because while the economy has stabilized and even turned up, the pace of recovery doesn't begin to approach the pace of improvement that we have seen in the stock market. How can investors not worry and wonder how the market can continue at this pace?

    It is one of the most unloved rallies I have ever seen. Even those who are bullish don't seem to embrace this market with both arms. They are long and happy to stay that way, but they aren't going to hesitate to hit the eject button when things begin to shift.

    The bearish case against this market has been bolstered a bit lately by some relative weakness in small caps and financial stocks. The IWM hasn't even come close to making a new annual high like the S&P500 and DJIA. It has bounced back to its 50-day simple moving average and has formed a double-headed pattern that looks rather ominous. The XLF has a somewhat similar pattern to the IWM and is still well off annual highs and struggling at the 50-day moving average.

    On the other hand, the S&P500, Nasdaq and DJIA are all within a stone's throw of annual highs and doing a very nice job of consolidating the gains from the move since the beginning of the month. These charts look quite healthy and suggest that we should see a run at new highs fairly soon.

    So, we have major indices that look quite good, but market players that keep looking for a top and some weak action under the surface. The net result is that we have a huge wall of worry in place that we keep on climbing. The more folks try to anticipate the top, the more we frustrate them by moving steadily higher.

    The big question is whether this narrowing of the market is a warning sign that big caps will eventually follow small caps, or whether this is just a rotation on uncertain money into bigger names as we wind down the year.

    At this juncture I am concerned by the weakness in small caps and financials, but the strong technical patterns in the senior indices offset it. We will need to be wary of the smaller stocks, but we can't be overly bearish given how strong the senior indices look.

    We have some typical Monday morning optimism to start things off this week. The dollar is weak, which means oil and gold are up. I don't see much other news of note, but we are starting off strongly and the trend remains our good friend.
  • S&P500 ja Dow Jones30 indeks on teinud täna uue 13.5 kuu tipu ja Nasdaq100 uue 14.5 kuu tipu.
  • väga tahaks BIDU lühikeseks võtta @ 437, kuid turu eufooriga pole vist mõtet võitlema hakata
  • Bernanke kõne toetas USD-d ja hetkel juba EUR-i vastu +0.2% vs kõnele eelnenud -0.3%. Ja kuna turg nii tugevalt USD korrelatsioonis, siis ka turg allapoole tulemas.
  • Kulla detsembri futuur lõi uueks tipuks $1139.30.
  • Fed's Fisher says Q3 US GDP growth probably not quite as robust as originally reported, closer to 2.5% - Reuters
  • Meredith Whitney, on CNBC, says she hasn't been this bearish in a year
  • GSi ja JPMi osa on tema tänased kommentaarid igaljuhul küll efekti avaldanud. Mõlemad aktsiad suure plussi ära kaotanud ja miinusesse kukkunud.

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