Börsipäev 18. november
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Täna kell 15.30 teatatakse USA oktoobrikuu eluasemete ehituste algatuste annualiseeritud näitaja, kus ootuseks on 600 000, mis oleks pisut suurem kui septembris nähtud 590 000. Ehituslubade arvu kasvu oodatakse 573 000 pealt 580 000 peale. Tarbijahinnaindeksi oktoobrikuu muutuseks oodatakse +0.2% ning tuumikosa muutuseks +0.1%.
USA futuurd varastel hommikutundidel nulli lähedal, Euroopa turud ca +0.4% ning Aasiast leiab nii tõusjaid kui langejaid. -
Lõpuks on käima läinud ka meie väärtpaberite ületoomise kampaania, kus kuni 1000 krooni ulatuses kompenseerime lisaks Baltikumi väärtpaberite ületoomisele ka teiste turgude väärtpabereid. Kuna Balti väärtpaberite hoiutasu LHVs puudub, on kindlasti kasulik neid meie juures hoida. Neile, kellele on seni saanud väärtpaberite ületoomise juures takistuseks just tõik, et ei taheta Balti ja välisväärtpabereid eraldi kontodel hoida, vaid eelistatakse neid ühes kohas näha, on nüüd pakutav just see, mida oodatud. Võtke ühendust meie investeerimiskonsultantidega (klienditugi@lhv.ee) ning korraldame väärtpaberite ületoomise meie juurde ära.
Link kampaanialehele on siin.
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Eile pärast börsipäeva lõppu üllitas RealMoney all Jim Cramer postituse, mille pealkirjaks oli "Factors Align for an Indestructible Market". Meenutab vägisi Rev Sharki üleeilset postitust, et 'don't think just buy'. Igaljuhul ma arvan, et complacency tõusu jätkumise osas ei ole nii suur olnud ikka väga-väga pikka aega. Iseenesest on ju tõusvad turud head, kuid sellised pealkirjad ajavad küll hirmu nahka. Tuletab meelde dot.com mulliaegseid pealkirju Nifty Fifty...
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Meie kauplejate jaoks huvitav uudis:
SEB said it's going to sell its minority stakes in Nasdaq OMX Tallinn and Nasdaq OMX Vilnius to Nasdaq OMX. SEB held 12.1% of the Tallinn market and 1.2% of the Vilnius market. Terms weren't disclosed. -
Goldman Sachsi hinnangul kajastab sellel aastal rohkem kui kolmekordistunud Vimpelcomi (VIP) aktsia kõike positiivset ja soovitus langetati "neutraalse" peale:
Russian mobile operator Vimpel-Communications was downgraded to neutral from buy on Wednesday at Goldman Sachs, which cited its recent period of outperformance. VimpelCom shares have more than tripled this year. "The stock's main drivers: a turnaround in Russian macro, a reduction in investors' concerns over its financial stability, shareholder conflict resolution and strong operating execution in 2009, are now fully captured in the price," Goldman analysts wrote in a note to clients. Goldman also removed the stock from its Russian focus list.
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AlariÜ Re: Börsipäev 18. november 18/11/09 11:22
Meie kauplejate jaoks huvitav uudis:
SEB said it's going to sell its minority stakes in Nasdaq OMX Tallinn and Nasdaq OMX Vilnius to Nasdaq OMX. SEB held 12.1% of the Tallinn market and 1.2% of the Vilnius market. Terms weren't disclosed.
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Alari, börsi omanikuks olek ei ole sama mis börsi liikmeks olek ehk SEB kaudu saab ka peale nende OMX Tallinn ja OMX Vilnius börside osaluse müüki ikka Balti aktsiaid edasi kaubelda, LHV aga polegi ühegi Balti börsi omanik ning kauplemine on sellest hoolimata võimalik
Aktsionäride struktuur
NASDAQ OMX Tallinna ja Eesti Väärtpaberikeskuse strateegiline omanik on NASDAQ OMX Nordic OY. Ülejäänud osalus jaguneb kohalike turuosaliste vahel.
NASDAQ OMX Nordic OY* 61,58
Swedbank 13,16%
SEB Pank 12,11%
Gild Bankers 6,97%
Cresco Väärtpaberid 3,16%
Evli Securities 1,32%
Eesti Pank 1,05%
Eesti Krediidipank 0,65% -
To:Henno Viires
Postituse eesmärgiks oli tõstatada küsimus SEB motiividest. Kui balti turg peaks hooga arenema, siis milleks müüa? Kuigi jah detaile pole juurde toodud. -
Küsimus on tegelikult ka Swedbanki, Cresco, Evli, Eesti Panga, Krediidipanga ja Gild Bankersi motiivides - börsi omanikuks olek ei Balti börside hoogsa arengu puhul vajalik kui sellest arengust saab osa ka börsi liikmena
http://www.nasdaqomxbaltic.com/?id=3792793
Enne aktsiate müüki NASDAQ OMXile kuulus SEBle 12,1 protsenti ning Swedbankile 13,2 protsenti NASDAQ OMX Tallinn ASi aktsiatest. Oma osalused müüsid ka Cresco Väärtpaberite AS (3,1 protsenti), EVLI Securities AS (1,3 protsenti), Eesti Pank (1,1 protsenti) ning AS Eesti Krediidipank (0,7 protsenti). Läbirääkimised ainsa alles jäänud vähemusomaniku Gild Holdings ASiga jätkuvad.
oluline uudis LHV kauplejatele ja kõigile teistel on hoopis see
NASDAQ OMX Tallinn pressiteade, 18.11.2009
NASDAQ OMX Balti börsid, mis kuuluvad NASDAQ OMX Groupi, teatasid täna kavatsusest käivitada uus ühine turg kauplemiseks NASDAQ OMX Tallinna, NASDAQ OMX Riia ja NASDAQ OMX Vilniuse reguleeritud turgudel noteeritud aktsiatega. Uue turu kauplemis- ja arveldusvaluutaks saab euro. Kauplemiskoht on plaanis käivitada 2010. aasta esimeses pooles, eeldusel, et börside liikmed on selleks valmis ja kohalikud finantsjärelevalveasutused annavad oma nõusoleku. -
To:Henno Viires
Kena, kui tuleb uus ja kobedam süsteem. See ju väga positiivne meie kõigi jaoks. -
Tokio börs on viimasel ajal selgelt raskustes tõusu jätkamisega & abi oodatakse taas valitsuselt (täna tulemas portaali ka pikem artikkel Jaapani majandusest):
"The market just doesn't have enough participants to regain any momentum... Without additional economic boost plans from the government, Japanese stocks will continue to lag the markets of other major developed countries, let alone those of more attractive newly emerging markets." T. Inaizumi (Mizuho Investors Securities)
Nikkei 225
Kui stiimulite efekt järgevate kvartalite jooksul USAs vähenema hakkab, siis liiguvad ootused kindlasti ka seal uue stiimuli poole (paljuski näitab olukorra paranemine tööturul, kas & kui suures mahus seda vaja on).
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Tulenevalt börsi probleemidest DTB-l ja SOFFEX-l DAX-i futuuride ja futuurioptsioonidega hetkel kaubelda ei saa.
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Nafta hind on taas $80 dollarist kõrgemale roninud. Eile tõstis oma prognoose UBS:
UBS AG raised its forecast for oil because of a weaker dollar and improved demand from developing nations, particularly China, the world’s second-largest energy consuming-nation. UBS increased its 2010 projection for West Texas Intermediate to $75 a barrel from $70 and its 2011 assumption to $80, analysts led by Melbourne-based Gordon Ramsay said in a note dated yesterday. (bloomberg)
& Citi on tõstnud S&P500 indeksi targetid kõrgemale:
...we are lifting our year-end 2009 and 2010S&P 500 targets modestly to 1,100 and 1,150, respectively, from 1,000 and 1,100, fully recognizing that an overshoot to 1,200-1,250 is possible if money flows intoequities pick up. While we normally prefer not to respond to the market’s whims, we see little reason to expect any major correction in the absence of a substantive liquidity shift in the near term given recent commentary by the G-20 and the Fed.
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Head Läti Iseseisvuspäeva! See seletab Riia mittekauplemise. Eelmist iseseisv.päeva mäletan küll, et anti teada kauplemispühast aga ju on latt(raha mitte taset ei pea silmas) nii alla käinud, et pole märkimisväärt.
vaatasin et OMXR paigal seisab -
Wells Fargo in $1.3 bln ARS pact with State Securities Regulators-- Bloomberg
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Target (TGT) cut to Neutral by Goldman Sachs
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Morgan Stanley John Mack räägib avameelselt aastatagustest Lehman Brothersi pankroti järgsetest hulludest päevadest. Minu arvates väga huvitavad 26 minutit - link siin.
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October CPI M/M +0.3% vs +0.2% consensus, prior +0.2%.
October Core CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus, prior +0.2%.
October Building Permits 552K vs 580K consensus, prior revised to 575K from 575K.
October Housing Starts 529K vs 600K consensus, prior revised to 592K from 590K. -
Faberi arvates on kulla hinnatõusu ülempiiriks vaid taevas - link siin.
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Economic Data Reviews: Housing Starts Crater
The talk that housing starts were stabilizing hit a snag in October as new housing starts plummeted 10.6% to 529,000 units from 592,000. The consensus forecasted an increase in starts to 600,000. The details in the data don't look pretty. Single family starts fell 6.8% to 476,000 and is at its lowest level since May. Multi-family starts fell a whopping 34.5% as only 53,000 new units were started. Multi-family starts have never been this low since the index was created in 1959. It is difficult to analyze this month's data. -
Fed's Bullard says possible Fed won't hike rates until 2012 - DJ
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Japan vol 2?
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Palun SPX toetus ja vastupnu tasemeid.Attächh ette!!
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Bob Byrne RealMoney all on sellega aktiivselt tegelenud heinos. Loodan, et sellest on abi:
This market continues to trade in a way that makes knitting seem exciting. For today---consider taking an extended coffee break until we clear 1110 or 1105 (which may happen soon enough considering the CPI and Housing data to be released at 8:30 AM).
The bulls remain in in control of the market and have little to worry about as long we hold above 1101.25. Look for traders to defend moderate support at 1105 and 1106.50 and target moderate/strong resistance at 1110. A sustained trade above 1110 allows bullish momentum to build with targets being strong resistance at 1114 and moderate resistance at 1118.
If you are bearish...consider sitting on your hands until we push through 1106.50 and 1105. A sustained trade under 1105 sends us back to strong support at 1101.25, but the bears have failed to push through this area on several occasions. Traders are likely to ignore the short side until they see 1101.25 get taken out. If the bulls lose 1101.25 expect a quick drop to 1098.
1118 = 112.35 M
1114 = 111.90 S
1110 = 111.50 M/S
1106.50 = 111.15 M
1105 = 111 M
1101.25 = 110.65 S
1098 = 110.30 M -
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.74%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.33%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.16%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.88%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.60%
Venemaa MICEX +0.84%
Poola WIG -1.19%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.55%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.32%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.61%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.64%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.13%
Tai Set 50 -0.01%
India Sensex 30 -0.30% -
Tänasest Sharki kommentaarist meeldib mulle viimane lause.
Hate Is Driving This Market
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/18/2009 8:42 AM EST
It requires a very unusual mind to undertake the analysis of the obvious.
-- Alfred North Whitehead
Since the low in March, the most notable characteristic of this market is how often we have had long streaks of positive days with hardly any dips at all. We have seen a number of runs where we've been up eight out of 10 days, and where the down days are just a few points.
The irony of this action is that it favors a buy-and-hold approach, which was widely discredited when the market melted down last year and early this year. Active traders, who navigated through the landmines of one of the ugliest markets ever, are now constantly frustrated by a market that does not provide many easy or convenient entry points. We go from a near breakdown to overbought and stay that way. The dips are so shallow as to be almost nonexistent; to complicate things further, volume tends to decline on each one of these runs.
I'm a bit tired of writing about these unusual inclinations, but it is a reflection of one of the most hated market rallies I have ever seen. Despite these tremendous runs we have experienced half a dozen times, many market players just can't bring themselves to fully embrace this market. We have the usual assortment of permabulls who are always optimistic, but the hot-money players, momentum chasers and shorter-term traders never seem to fully embrace this market as they did during other rallies like in 2000.
This reluctance to really embrace the strength is probably what keeps it going. Folks just keep inching in slowly as they become increasingly frustrated when we don't have any pullbacks. The higher we go, the more shrill the talk about how we will go up endlessly, and the more aggressive the dip-buyers are in buying even when the market is just flat.
I've previously discussed the many reasons the mood has been different this time. The most obvious is that people just can't seem to reconcile their personal views of the economy with the strength in the stock market. Another reason is that the bi driving force has been liquidity and weakness in the dollar rather than a focus on improving fundamentals.
While the market has certainly had exceptional performance for quite a long time, it has not been easy to understand or navigate. That is the nature of the market at times, and the best thing we can do is to try to understand the character of the action so we can navigate it better.
I'm the first to admit that I've not had an easy time with this market. I've been consistently underinvested and continue to be surprised every time we have another one of these streaks where we go straight up on declining volume. While I have not made the mistake of trying to short in anticipation of weakness, I have seldom been as heavily long as I would have liked.
If the pattern of prior months holds, this market should stall out around option expiry and then turn down at the end of the month. This month we have the Thanksgiving holiday, which typically is some of the most positive seasonality of the year, so an end-of-the-month dip is going to be a bit trickier to anticipate.
The bulls are feeling good and in control of this market. The bears' best hope is that the complacency is so great that they can catch some folks by surprise.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CHS +11.3%, BWS +10.1%, CSUN +8.7%, LZB +2.6%, NM +2.5%... Select oil/gas related names showing early strength: REP +1.6%, PBR +1.3%, APA +1.2% (approves Apache's Gas Plus project - Oil & Gas Journal), TOT +1.2%... Select chemical/ag related names showing continued strength: SYT +1.7%, MOS +1.5%, POT +1.3% and MON +1.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Select shipping names ticking higher: FRO +4.3%, EXM +3.5%, DSX +3.4%, NAT +3.2% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GNK +2.9%... Select solar names trading higher: LDK +13.3% (sells 15% ownership stake in its 15,000 MT polysilicon plant), SOLF +4.8%, JASO +2.2%, FSLR +2.0%, SPWRA +1.6%... Other news: VVUS +16.7% (announces positive results from Ph. 3 study of avanafil in ED), NOK +2.3% (still checking), VE +1.4% (still checking), SII +1.3% (prices 28.0 mln common share offering at $26.50/share and upgraded to Buy at Citigroup)... Analyst comments: XOMA +9.7% (initiated with Buy at Canaccord), CAKE +6.9% (added to Americas Conviction Buy list at Goldman- Reuters), PHM +4.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup), ADI +2.0% (Hearing added to Buy list at tier 1 firm).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CNQR -7.4%, ADSK -7.3%, CRM -4.0%, BJ -2.3%... Select European financials showing weakness: AIB -2.7% (sees 2009 bad debt charge up EUR1 bln on NAMA - DJ; also announces Dan O'Connor is to take on the role of Executive Chairman), IRE -1.9%, HBC -1.8% (HSBC Holdings confirms sale, leaseback talks for two Paris sites - DJ; also trading ex dividend), RBS -1.6%... Other news: DISH -7.4% (trading ex dividend), SVA -6.6% (filed for a common share shelf offering), ONCY -6.4% (announces unit offering), TEN -5.6% (announces intention to offer 10 mln shares of common stock in underwritten public offering), EMS -5.2% (announces public stock offering of 6 mln shares by existing equity holders), DRYS -4.0% (announces a $300 mln convertible sr notes offering), VOD -2.3% (trading ex dividend), GENZ -1.5% (reported results of a phase 2/3 study of its advanced phosphate binder; did not show a significant improvement in phosphate lowering)... Analyst comments: EXEL -5.7% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), STX -4.1% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), CVH -2.9% (added to Americas Conviction Sell list at Goldman- Reuters), WDC -2.8% (downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill), TGT -1.6% (cut to Neutral by Goldman Sachs- DJ; also trading ex dividend), RIMM -0.9% (downgraded to Market Perform at Oppenheimer). -
Veelkord aitähh.
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Colgate-Palmolive (CL) on täna päeva teises pooles 4% kõrgemale hüpanud. Põhjuseks ülevõtu kuulujutud.
