Börsipäev 24. november
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Aasia turud täna valdavalt punased. Langust juhtisid ca 7%ga Hiina Shanghai B indeks ning 2%ga Vietnam.
Tänasteks tähtsamateks makrosündmusteks USA turul on kell 15.30 avalikustatav 3. kvartali SKP täiendatud näitaja, kus ootuseks on +2.8%. SKP deflaatori ootus +0.8%. Kell 16.00 tuleb septembrikuu Case Schilleri indeks (ootus -9.1%) ning kell 16 tuleb samuti väga oluline novembrikuu tarbijausalduse indeks (ootus 47.5 punkti), kus ootused on võrdsed oktoobrikuus näidatuga. Kell 21.00 tuleb veel viimase Föderaalreservi istungi protokoll. -
Sellest on muidugi korduvalt ka varem juttu olnud, aga Morgan Stanley on ühe toreda graafilise võrdlusega maha saanud..... küüslauk on siis H1N1 epideemia hirmus olnud Hiina üks parimaid tootlust näidanud varaklasse.
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Kusjuures sõber tuli just Soomes ja ütles, et ükskõik mida keegi kaupluses ka ostab, kas kärutäie toitu pikemaks nädalavahetuseks või lihtsalt pätsi leiba ja jupi vorsti, kilo küüslauku on ka kindlasti korvis-kärus.
Kas mõni küüslaugutootja kuskil ka noteeritud on? :)
Peaks olema suht kõva dividendimaksja järgmisel aastal... -
tuleb lihtsalt turult kotid küüslauku täis võtta ja Helsingi metroosse althõlma pakkuma minna !
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Ilmselt Hiina peab olema, sest wikipedia andmeil toodab Hiina 77% maailma küüslaugust... ja mina mõtlesin, et nad ainult olmeelektroonika kokkupanemise ja doominonuppude stantsimisega teenivad
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Venemaa jätkab intresside alla tõmbamist:
DJ reports Russia's central bank cut its key interest rates by 0.5 percentage points to 9.0% in an attempt to stimulate bank lending and turn back the wave of speculative capital that has flooded the ruble in recent months. The reduction in the refinancing rate, the benchmark to which commercial banks tie their deposit rates, is effective Wednesday. Other key rates, such as the one-day repurchase rate on central bank loans, were cut as well. Russia has cut rates by four percentage points since April. -
JP Morgan soovitab Omnivisioni (OVTI) aktsiaid enne 30. novembril raporteeritavaid tulemusi osta. Stifel Nicolaus on täna tõstnud Hewltt-Packradi (HPQ) hinnasihit $58 pealt $62 peale.
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Q3 GDP- revised +2.8% vs +2.8% consensus, Advanced +3.5%.
Q3 Personal Consumption- revised +2.9% vs +3.2% consensus, Advanced was +3.4%. -
Fundtech (FNDT) alustab täna päeva võrreldes eilse sulgumishinnaga kõrgemalt. Peamiseks põhjuseks Craig-Hallumi poolt välja antud analüüs, kus tõstetakse soovitus 'hoia' pealt 'osta' peale ning hinnasiht $14 pealt $15 peale. Finantssektoris väga konrkeetset niši täitev ettevõte meeldib ka meile ning näeme tänaste tasemete pealt märkimisväärset tõusuruumi .Muuhulgas võib analüüsist leida selliseid lauseid:
*The recent pullback combined with increased confidence gives us more ammo for enthusiasm: We had downgraded the stock after a strong move earlier this month. Our style is not to get cute with the timing of our rating, however we believe the recent pullback of approximately 10%, combined with our greater comfort in the estimates makes us realize we should be more aggressive on the stock.
*We believe the stock will increasingly become a growth stock for investors in the broader financial technology or bank software market.
 - 23. november 2009.PNG)
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September S&P Case Shiller Composite 20-Y/Y -9.36% vs -9.10% consensus, prior -11.30%
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Aasia oli täna punane, USA alustab aga päeva eilsete sulgumistasemete juurest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.11%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.23%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.10%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.01%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.27%
Venemaa MICEX -1.58%
Poola WIG -0.73%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.01%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.53%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -3.43%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -7.34%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.92%
Tai Set 50 -2.12%
India Sensex 30 -0.29% -
Supply and Demand
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/24/2009 8:18 AM EST
Advice is the only commodity on the market where the supply always exceeds the demand.
-- James Koford
If you glance at how the major indices performed on Monday, it looks like quite a strong day. The DJIA was up 132 points and hit a new high for the year, and the S&P 500 jumped 1.36% but didn't quite manage to make a new high. By those measures it was a solid day of performance, but under the surface the action isn't quite as clear.
All of yesterday's gains came in the first 30 minutes of trading. As soon as the housing report hit, we lost momentum and slowly dripped lower the rest of the day. A number of the headlines in the popular press attributed yesterday's gains to the housing report, but actually the market never went up after that news hit. What drove us up was the weakness in the dollar that caused oil, metals and commodity stocks to jump in the early going.
The other puzzling aspect of yesterday's action was the light volume. Volume fell quite a bit from Friday's option expiration level, and the low levels seem to indicate that there isn't any great demand for stocks, although the price action says otherwise.
This isn't a new phenomenon. Although the major indices are all up sharply in November, volume has been below the 60-day simple moving average since the first couple days of the month. We've gone up on very strong breadth but consistently on below-average volume.
The declining volume has been a major characteristic all through this rally since the March bottom. The reason volume is important is that it tells us about supply and demand. Obviously for every buyer there is a seller, so supply will ultimately always equal demand. What keeps supply and demand in equilibrium is a change in prices. When there is more demand than supply, prices will go up in order to induce sellers to part with their shares. When there is more supply than demand, prices will go down in order to entice buyers with a "bargain" price.
Typically when there is a meaningful price move in the market it is accompanied by increased volume because there is a surge in the levels of either supply or demand. You'd expect on a day when the DJIA gains more than 100 points that volume was higher because market players had an increased demand for stocks and were willing to pay up to acquire them.
This very fundamental law of supply and demand isn't operating very well in the current market, which tells us that there must be some other forces helping to drive prices. The most obvious are the dollar and liquidity. When there is a great amount of liquidity, markets can go higher on lower volume because there are no other good alternatives for investors. They have no choice but to pay up for stocks. Sellers realize this and therefore are less likely to part with shares unless they are given better prices. Thus stocks go up on lower volume. The weak dollar also enhances liquidity in a less direct way, but it ends up working in the same way.
The important point here is that we have to very carefully track these outside forces. The normal price/volume relationship does not apply, but the market can continue to run higher on increased liquidity and a weaker dollar.
The big danger is that when liquidity is drained and/or the dollar strengthens, there is very little real accumulation to hold the market up. When those forces are gone, our foundation of support will crumble quickly.
The good news is that there are no signs that liquidity is drying up or that the dollar is reversing. The positive forces driving the market are still in place, and until that shifts, the path of least resistance is up.
We have very flat action in the early going. Volume is likely to slow even more as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches, but that should also produce a little more volatility as well.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DSW +7.1%, MDT +4.8%, AEO +3.9%, DLTR +2.0%, NUAN +1.8%, ADI +1.5%, HRL +1.3%... Select metals/mining related names showing strength: RTP +2.0% (Rio Tinto seals iron ore sales agreement with IOH - DJ), MT +1.7%, BBL +1.2%, EGO +1.2%, AEM +1.0%... Select drug names trading higher: NVS +1.1%, PFE +1.0%... Other news: AEZS +20.2% (announces positive results for Phase 2 study with LHRH-receptor targeted cytotoxic conjugate AEZS-108 in endometrial cancer), ZAGG +6.5% (announces a partnership with T-Mobile Germany), SEED +6.1% (continued momentum), NAT +4.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MITI +2.9% (enters into agreement with Lonza for the manufacture of Blinatumomab), RMBS +2.3% (comments on order in price-fixing case), TASR +2.1% (light volume; confirmed New Jersey approval of law enforcement use of electronic control devices), BDX +2.1% (increases dividend to $0.37/share from $0.04/share; authorizes repurchase of up to additional 10 mln shares of common stock), WHR +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: AMLN +9.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), TLAB +4.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Soleil), ALTH +2.3% (initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity), PRU +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo), CEPH +1.5% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), LKFN +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), GE +0.7% (JP Morgan discusses CFO mgmt meetings; firm thinks shares look attractive).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WH -19.9%, ORS -13.6%, DY -7.1%, DHT -4.9%, BRCD -2.1%, CISG -1.7% (light volume), HNZ -1.4%... Select China related names ticking lower: CHL -2.0%, CEO -1.9%, PTR -1.7%, CHU -1.1%... Select European financials showing weakness: AIB -2.1%, IRE -2.0%, ING -1.8%... Other news: DBLE -5.3% (Double Eagle Petro files for $200 mln mixed securities shelf offering)... Analyst comments: NFLX -1.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Wedbush), UNP -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at UBS), ALV -1.0% (downgraded to Hold at Keybanc and downgraded to Underperform at BofA/Merrill). -
November Consumer Confidence 49.5 vs 47.3 consensus, October 48.7
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FDIC releases Q3 Quarterly Banking Profile; Number of institutions on "Problem List" rose from 416 to 552 during the quarter
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ECB has yet to decide on rate for 12-month loans in Dec; leaning towards doing 1% again but debate on whether or not to make it adjustable is in progress-- Bloomberg
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$42 bln 5-year Auction- Yield 2.175% (2.208% expected); Bid/Cover 2.81x (2009 avg 2.28x, prior 2.63x); Indirect Bidders 60.9% (2009 avg 44.4%, prior 54.6%)
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IMF's Strauss-Kahn says possibly 50% of bank losses still hidden in balance sheets - Reuters
Strauss-Kahn says IMF thinks euro is probably a bit too strong, French newspaper Le Figaro says - Reuters -
Föderaalreservi protokoll on tegelikult päris huvitav. Yahoo! Finance on sellest teinud ka ühe kokkuvõtva loo - link siin. Põhimõtteliselt Fed tunnistab ise ka, et nende 0%lised intressimäärad võivad kaasa tuua liigsete riskide võtmise ja uue mulli. Täna hinnatakse seda tõenäosust veel madalaks, kuid igaljuhul silmad hoitakse selles osas lahti.
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Fed says recent fall in dollar orderly, reflects unwinding of safe haven demand during financial recovery - Reuters
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Iga mööduva nädalaga on idee USA aktsia-, optsiooni- ja futuuritehingute valitsusepoolsest maksustamistest saanud poliitilisel maastikul järjest enam poolehoidu. Täna räägitakse 0.25%lise maksu kehtestamise võimalusest (Suurbritannias on see 0.5%). Loodetavasti õnnestub mul lähema aja jooksul sellest ka LHV Finantsportaalis pikemalt kirjutada.
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FX traderid pääsevad või?
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Aga bondid, treasuryd?
btw, kas mitte UK-s ka seetõttu CFD-dega ei kaubelda, et maksust pääseda? -
Huvitav, kas Suurbritannias päevasisese treidimisega sellise maksuga üldse aktiivselt tegeletakse? 0,25% maks tundub selline olema juba, et muudab põhitegevusena asjaga tegelemise natuke mõttetuks.
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momentum, oktoobris oli juttu ka bondide maksustamisest, novembris on teema keerelnud peamiselt siiski aktsiate, optsioonide, swapide ja futuuride ümber. Forex pole teemaks olnud.
luarikluarvik, Suurbritannia stamp tax on olnud üks väga suuri arugmente, miks sealsest börsist kõrvale vaadata. Raske tegeleda päevasisese kauplemisega, kui pead lootma 1.0%+komisjonitasu suurust liikumist.
Pikem artikkel ilmub mu sulest sel teemal homme hommikul. -
Mh, kuidas see Suurbritannia stamp tax, siis ka turu tervisele on mõjunud...mida selle kohta nüün, peale praktikas kasutamist arvatakse...positiivne-negatiivne?
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oli siin küüslaugust juttu veidi ja nüüd:
http://www.ap3.ee/article/2009/11/26/Spekulandid_haistavad_kuuslaugust_tulu
