Börsipäev 25. november
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Kuna neljapäeval on USAs Tänupüha ja aktsiaturud on siis suletud ning reedel on lühendatud kauplemispäev, ei ole neljapäeval ja reedel mingeid makroandmeid USAst loota. See-eest tänase päeva makrokalender on väga tihe. Tund aega enne turgude avanemis teatatakse oktoobrikuu eraisikute sissetulekute muutus (ootus +0.1%), kulutuste muutus (ootus +0.5%), kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus (ootus +0.5%) ja ilma transpordita kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus (ootus +0.6%) ning möödunud nädala esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv (ootus 500 000) ja kestvate töötu abiraha taotlejate arv (ootus 5.565 mln). Kell 16.55 teatatakse Michigani Sentimendi indeksi novembrikuu näit (ootus 67 punkti), kell 17.00 uute eluasemete oktoobrikuu müüginumbrid (ootus 404 000) ning kell 17.30 tuleb naftavarude muutuste raport.
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(RU) Russian Central Bank: Reiterates that it plans to invest some reserves in CAD
*Reminder: Back on Sept 29th: Russian Central Bank (CBR) First Dep Chairman: Could add AUD and CAD currencies to its reserves; will not be reducing share of US Treasuries's in reserves from exisiting 30% level -
Yes, vennad! Jääb vaid küsida, miks minu armas LHV ühtegi Venemaa aktsiat ei kata?
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EUR/USD on tegemas väga korralikku rallit ning tänasega on EUR tugevnenud juba +0.8% ning kaupleb tasemel €1=$1.508. See on euro kõrgeim tase dollari vastu alates 2008. aasta 8. augustist ehk viimase 15.5 kuu tipp.
USA S&P500 futuurid on nõrga dollari toel eelturul 0.5% plussis.
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arvopesti, Venemaa aktsiaturud on äärmiselt volatiilsed, spreadid suured, liikumised raskesti prognoositavad, ettevõtete aruandlussüsteem ja järelvalve pole kiita ning sinna investeerimisel on vaja karukannatust ja raudseid närve.
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Joel, jutt ju jumala õige! Sulgudes- ka kasumid on suured- Aga jään siiski oma arvamuse juurde, et suuraktsiaid võiks LHV siis katta. Te ju jälgite ja näete nagunii...
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Initial Claims 466 000 vs oodatud 500 000.
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Futuurid lendasid nende numbrite peale igaljuhul üles. Oodatust suuremad eraisikute sissetulekud ja kulutused ning väiksem esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate number kompenseerib ära ootustele alla jääva kestvuskaupade tellimuste numbri.
October Durable Goods -0.6% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to +2.0% from +1.4%.
October Durable Goods ex-trans -1.3% vs +0.7% consensus, prior revised to +1.8% from +1.2%.
October Personal Income +0.2% vs +0.1% consensus, prior revised to +0.2% from 0.0%.
October Personal Spending +0.7% vs +0.5% consensus, prior revised to -0.6% from -0.5% -
Liikumised Hiina aktsiaturgudel on viimastel päevadel päris närviliseks läinud. Ühepäevased kõikumised ulatuvad üle mitme protsendi.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.81%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.05%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.80%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.84%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.26%
Venemaa MICEX -1.41%
Poola WIG +0.51%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.43%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2.05%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +5.12%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.25%
Tai Set 50 +3.17%
India Sensex 30 +0.40% -
Trading Tax Will Hit the Wrong Target
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/25/2009 8:22 AM EST
To be happy means to be self-sufficient.
-- Aristotle
The market is looking more upbeat this morning after some very dull trading action on Tuesday. The day before Thanksgiving is typically positive and it looks like we already have a little holiday spirit in the air.
Technically the market is in pretty good shape. We were a bit overheated in the first hour of trading on Monday morning but have done little since then, so we have digested the move and have a little base of support to provide a foundation for some upside.
The news wires are fairly quiet but we have quite a few economic reports coming up this morning, including weekly unemployment claims, durable goods orders, crude oil inventories and new home sales. Those reports should set the tone of trading. Market players seem to be looking for some positives so if we dip on the news I think we'll probably shrug it off fairly fast and bounce back, unless it is something quite dramatic.
Speaking of unemployment, I was a bit shaken by Jim Cramer's support of a tax on trading "if it created new jobs." I doubt any tax has ever created more jobs than it has destroyed, especially when you have the government acting as a middleman and extracting its own pound of flesh.
One of the things many people overlook in the discussion of a tax on trading is how different the market is today than it was before the Internet and all its associated technologies were developed. Trading has been greatly democratized over the years -- now just about anyone can be a trader and earn a living in the market if they have a little capital and are willing to work hard.
Fifteen years ago you had to be live and work in one of the major financial centers if you wanted to be a "real" trader. There was no way someone like me sitting on the beach in Florida or the hills of North Carolina could participate in the market. Now we can all become self-sufficient if we have the desire and inclination to do so.
The Internet made trading an even playing field, and as a result a major industry developed around it to assist the man on the street who wanted to participate in the markets. I know many individuals who now consider trading to be their primary job. They run small businesses that support them and their families, employ people and pay substantial taxes on their profits. Instead of using stock brokers, people now do research on their own using the many sites and tools available on the Internet, which has created productive businesses like TheStreet.com and RealMoney.
When I hear the discussions about a tax on trading, it is clear that the politicians are after the big investment banks like Goldman Sachs or the irresponsible banks that helped to create the subprime crisis. I never hear any talk about how different the world of trading is now and how so many ordinary people look to the market as a way to produce income.
A tax on trading will not only hurt the way the market operates, it will hurt many innocent individuals who never had any responsibility for the excesses of Wall Street in the first play and probably helped the market recover much faster than it would have otherwise.
I hope that those who back a tax on trading figure out that they aren't just going to extract some fees form powerful institutions. They are going to hurt the lives of thousands of people on Main Street.
I'm sure this issue is not going to go away quietly. I will continue to be a persistent and vocal advocate for individual traders who are at risk of becoming victims of short-sighted and ignorant politicians.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QADI +14.3%, JCG +7.7%, TIF +7.0%... Select financial related names trading higher: IRE +3.0% (Bank of Ireland 5-year plan doesn't see more state aid - DJ), PUK +2.4%, BCS +2.0% (initiated with a Market Perform at Bernstein), DB +1.4%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: BHP +3.4% (MCC, Minara mull BHP mine bid - WSJ), BBL +3.3%, NG +3.1%, IAG +3.0%, HMY +2.8%, GFI +2.2%, GG +2.1%, RTP +2.0%, ABX +1.8%, AUY +1.8%, KGC +1.7%, GDX +1.6%, EGO +1.6%, MT +1.6%, GOLD +1.4%, NEM +1.2%, GLD +1.1%... Select overseas auto names ticking higher: HMC +4.5%, TM +2.3%... Select drug names showing strength: AZN +2.4%, SNY +1.6%, GSK +1.5%... Other news: INCY +16.6% (announces collaboration and license agreement for two hematology-oncology programs), HEV +10.7% (co's unit is supplying batteries for a major new smart grid program announced yesterday by the US Department of Energy), AIXG +4.5% (still checking), FLR +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: VPRT +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CONN -12.0%, DRAM -11.3%, CWTR -6.5%, DE -1.2%... Other news: CZNC -12.4% (priced 2.5 mln share common stock offering at $8/share), SAY -11.3% (India agency files more charges against 10 accused in Satyam scam - WSJ), PLA -5.9% (Distribution Services announces newsstand distribution agreement with Playboy Enterprises; note recent reports circulated that the co is in talks to be taken over), SQNM -5.7% (pulling back from yesterday's 30% pop), MAT -3.5% (trading ex dividend), AONE -2.8% (pulling back from yesterday's 15% jump), RMBS -2.1% (U.S. Patent Office rejects all 17 claims in three Rambus patents asserted against NVIDIA in International Trade Commission action), HAL -1.5% (announces a major reduction in activity from its primary customer in Mexico for Q4; impact is currently expected to be approx $0.02/share)... Analyst comments: GTE -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at Wunderlich). -
Kui väga tüli ei tee, kas võimalik panna ülesse ühel graafik initial, continuing claims ja SKP. Periood võiks olla pikem, et jääks sisse eelmised keerulisemad ajad majanduses.
Meenus, et mingi Danske analüütik teatas 2008 kevadel, et majanduslanguse põhi USA-s tähendab initial claims 600K+. -
Investor Intelligence numbritele juhiks tähelepanu. Täna avaldatud numbrid on 18% bearish ja üle 50% bullish... Nii madalat bearish numbrit viimase kahe aasta seest igaljuhul ei leia.
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10:00 AM Oct. New Home Sales: +6.2% to 430K vs. 398K expected and 402K in Sept.
9:56 AM Nov. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment (final): 67.4 vs. 66.8 expected and 66 initial. Expectations 66.5 vs. 68.6 prior. 12-month inflation forecast 2.7% vs. 2.9% prior. -
Kuna homme on USA aktsiaturud suletud, siis väga paljud turuosalised on juba täna lõuna ajal USAs kontoritest plehku panemas ning päeva teine pool peaks kujunema juba väga madala käibega kauplemiseks...
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Goldman Sachs slips to fresh morning lows as it comes into its recent 3-day pullback range low near 170.00
GS peaks käima turust veidi eespool ja viimase aja nõrkus GS aktsias teeb need tipud pigem küsitavaks -> tail-wind? -
Iseenesest ma ei välistaks investeerimispankade (eelkõige need, kes aktiivselt tegevad high-frequency tradingus, market makingus ja oma booki ostmise läbi trading revenue'te genereerimises) viimase aja nõrkust ka üha tulisemaid tuure võtva väärtpaberitehingute maksustamise teema üleskerkimisega. Trading tulud on viimastel kvartalitel pankade numbreid raskel ajal hästi toitnud ning igasugused ohud, mis võiksid kauplemismahte turgudel vähendada, oleksid realiseerumise korral tugeva negatiivse mõjuga. Pikem artikkel sellest juba homme hommikul.
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Goldman Sachs sets a new low for the week, vacillating near its two month close low from early Nov at 169.50
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$32 bln 7-year Auction Results: Yield: 2.835% (2.878% expected); Bid/Cover 2.76x (2009 Avg 2.53x, prior 2.65x); Indirect Bidding 62.5% (2009 Avg 49.4%, prior 59.3%)
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EUR/USD teeb ikka mehemoodi liikumisi. Euro täna +1.2% ja uus 15.5 kuu tipp on nüüd €1=$1.514!
Orderly? Really?
