Börsipäev 27. november
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Tõotab tulla väga huvitav börsipäev. USA börsidel on täna lühendatud kauplemispäev ning USA turud sulguvad Eesti aja järgi kell 20.00.
Eile alguse saanud börside kukkumine on täna kiiresti jätkunud. Aasia börsidel Hong Kong -4.7%, Lõuna-Korea -4.7%, India -3.5%, Jaapan -3.2% jne. USA futuurid on eilsetele futuurikaotustele lisa tegemas ning võrreldes kolmapäevaste sulgemishindadega kauplevad S&P500 futuurid -3.5% @ 1070 punkti, Nasdaq100 -3.5% @ 1731 punkti ning nafta -4.6% @74.3. Dollar on euro vastu täna 1.1% tugevnenud. -
Kui miinus USA turgudel jääb nii suureks kuni avamiseni või paisub veelgi, võib turgude avamise hetkel karta margin callide tsüklit.
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Nov. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said Dubai’s attempt to reschedule debt may cause a “correction” in emerging markets, compounded by Vietnam’s currency devaluation and an “avalanche” of initial share sales.
“This may be the trigger to allow for the market to take a rest and pull back,” Mobius told Bloomberg Television by phone from Hanoi. “I felt that there would be a significant correction in what is an ongoing bull market.”
“It will be pretty serious because if Dubai has to default, that could start a wave of defaults in other areas,” said Mobius, who oversees $25 billion in emerging-market assets as executive chairman of Templeton Asset. -
EUR/USD viimase kahe nädala graafik:
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CNN on kokku pannud ühe lühikese nimekirja 11-st suure allahindlusega pakutavast tootest tänasel Black Friday'l - link koos piltidega ja hindadega siin. Nimekirja mahuvad LCD teler, kodumasinad (võileivaküpsetaja $3), Barbie, GPS, pehmed mänguasjad jpm.
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Joel, miks selline paanika tekkinud on?
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network, peamiseks põhjuseks Dubai World'i soov laenumaksete tagasimakseid edasi lükata/laen restruktureerida - link siin. Ajal, kui investorid on juba arvestanud, et maailm on rahaga üle ujutatud ning kellelgi probleeme laenude saamisega ei tohiks olla, on see kindlasti paljudele kõhedust tekitavaks uudiseks. Ja kuna aktsiaturud on aasta jooksul väga tugevasti tõusnud ka, on igati loogiline, et müügilaine tuleku korral tehakse kõik, et aasta jooksul teenitut mitte käest lasta.
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Nonii, Pluuto vastandus dollariga. Läheb lahti Ameerika tragöödia .... kahju küll.
Maa on tibatilluke osa suuremast süsteemist ja üks väike dollar ei seisa loodusjõududele vastu. -
Ameerika majanduse päästjad:
Internetikaubamaja Amazon nimetab kõige ihaldatavamaks müügiartikliks Kindle’t, mis võimaldab laadida alla ning lugeda raamatuid elektroonilisel kujul. Lelude segmendis tõstavad mitmed müüjad esile Zhu Zhu hamstreid ja Elmo’s Tickle Hands’i (väikelastele mõeldud kindad, millest üks hakkab puudutamisel vibreerima ja Elmo kuulsat naeru esitama).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwnRGR5mvEk -
Hiievana, kui sa praegu annad välja calli shortida dollarit, siis sa oled lootusetult hiljaks jäänud.
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Euro area sentiment rises to a stronger than expected 88.8 (vs. 86.1 in October, consensus 88.1). The pickup in confidence was strongest among industry, while consumer sentiment rose less sharply as respondents expressed fears over losing their jobs.
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Euroopa aktsiaturud on päeva alguse miinusest üle saanud ning ca 0.5% plusspoolel. USA alustab äeva ca 2.5%lise langusega.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.58%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.72%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.46%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.31%
Rootsi OMX 30 +1.08%
Venemaa MICEX -0.60%
Poola WIG -0.77%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.22%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -4.84%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.36%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.56%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -4.67%
Tai Set 50 -0.87%
India Sensex 30 -1.32% -
A Post-Prandial Surprise
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
11/27/2009 8:20 AM EST
Surprise, surprise, surprise!
-- Gomer Pyle
After a rather pleasant day of trading on Wednesday, many traders were looking for a continuation during a thin half day session on Friday but we are now set to open sharply lower following a debt crisis in the oil-rich country of Dubai. European and Asian markets were down 2% or more as investors tried to sort out which financial institutions had the most exposure to the Dubai debt.
The big question this morning is whether this is just a short-term hiccup or a symptom of deeper worldwide problems that the market has been overlooking for a long time as it rode a wave of liquidity.
The total amount of debt at issue is about $60 billion, which is pretty small potatoes compared to the size of other problems we have had in the past year. $60 billion is just a run-of-the-mill bailout or stimulus plan for the government these days.
The dip-buyers keep looking for opportunities to jump in, and a pullback of 2% or 3% is going to look pretty tempting to some who are underinvested and trying to put up some performance before the end of the year. On the other hand, buying a big pullback is always easier in theory than in practice. When one actually does occur, there is always the niggling doubt that maybe this is really is a top and a change in character, and not just a short-lived correction.
The bears are going to be breathing a little sigh of relief and will not-so-helpfully point out that they have been telling us that things really aren't that good and that there will be many more shoes to drop in the near future. The bears have been burned so often in the last seven months that I'm not sure they even believe their own arguments anymore, but you'll hear plenty of "I told you so" today.
The fact that we have a half day of trading and a very thin market complicates things a bit. I'd be more inclined to look for a very quick washout on a normal day of trading but many market players will probably wait until next week before they make any major moves.
I'm inclined to think that this is not going to be an event that marks a market top. I'm looking for dip-buyers to use it as an opportunity. We'll have to keep a very close watch on the dollar -- that has been the real driving force lately, and if the dollar suddenly regains some luster as a safe harbor it'll be a major headwind.
We'll see how we act once the market opens. We need to keep an open mind, but I suspect the dip-buyers are going to be intrigued.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QADI +14.3%, JCG +7.7%, TIF +7.0%... Select financial related names trading higher: IRE +3.0% (Bank of Ireland 5-year plan doesn't see more state aid - DJ), PUK +2.4%, BCS +2.0% (initiated with a Market Perform at Bernstein), DB +1.4%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: BHP +3.4% (MCC, Minara mull BHP mine bid - WSJ), BBL +3.3%, NG +3.1%, IAG +3.0%, HMY +2.8%, GFI +2.2%, GG +2.1%, RTP +2.0%, ABX +1.8%, AUY +1.8%, KGC +1.7%, GDX +1.6%, EGO +1.6%, MT +1.6%, GOLD +1.4%, NEM +1.2%, GLD +1.1%... Select overseas auto names ticking higher: HMC +4.5%, TM +2.3%... Select drug names showing strength: AZN +2.4%, SNY +1.6%, GSK +1.5%... Other news: INCY +16.6% (announces collaboration and license agreement for two hematology-oncology programs), HEV +10.7% (co's unit is supplying batteries for a major new smart grid program announced yesterday by the US Department of Energy), AIXG +4.5% (still checking), FLR +1.6% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: VPRT +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup). -
Incoming EU internal market commissioner Barnier says Dubai problems show financial crisis not over; Dubai problems strengthen our resolve to put in place strong G20 decisions - Reuters
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Tundub, et kauplejad on õhukest kauplemispäeva üritamas ära kasutada ja hindu ülespoole lükata. Kuna päev peaks täna tõesti õhuke tulema, siis ei tasuks siit kohe järeldada, et neljapäeva-reede suured turu kukkumised Aasias ja Euroopas hommikul investorite mõtetest juba kustunud.
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Ülesmineku nurk ikka päris raju ja mõned üksikud müügitulbad, mis seni väiksema käibega kui ostutulbad. Ootaks õhtuks ikka kerget müügisahmakat samuti.
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Paanika rahustamiseks LHV trading roomis lugege seda:
Dubai Panic Is Overdone
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703499404574561541613011518.html -
Macy's CEO says early black Friday signs are good, but awaiting more results; doesn't "think necessarily that customers are going to spend more than they spent last year" - Reuters
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U.S. Treasury says European banks have more Dubai exposure than U.S. banks - CNBC
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GM's Saab Gets Serious Interest From Other Potential Buyers; Saab Officials Try To Build Case For GM's Board To Keep It Alive - WSJ
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Tänaseks siis pidu läbi ja turud kinni.
