Börsipäev 3. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Jaapani börsil jätkus neljapäeval võimas ralli, kuna keskpank lubas sellel nädal toimunud erakorralisel koosolekul intressimäärad madal hoida, anda rohkem lühiajalisi laene ja võidelda aktiivsemalt deflatsiooniga (+jeeni kallinemisega). Nikkei 225 indeks täna +3.8% plusspoolel & kokku on see nädal tõustud ca10% ja ollakse üsna lähedal 10000 punktile.
USA teatakse täna 15:30 esmaste töötu abiraha taotlejate arv (ootus 480K) ja kestvate töötu abiraha taotlejate arv (ootus 5400K). Lisaks teatakse veel 3Q tööjõu tootlikkuse ja kulu indeks. Kl. 17.00 avalikustatakse ISM teenuste indeks (ootus 51.5). Hetkel tundub turg otsivat uut katalüsaatorit tõusuks ja paranemismärgid tööjõuturul on ilmselt jõuluralliks vajalik eeldus (novembrikuu tööjõuraport avalikustatakse homme & nonfarm payroll ootus -125K vs -190K oktoobris).
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Eile õhtul tuli BAC välja järgmise uudisega:
Bank of America is out of the TARP program; BAC is going to pay back $45 bln
Bank of America is out of the TARP program; this deal has been reached imminently
Bank of America: It does appear that BAC will be asking it's shareholders to increase the numbers of shares outstanding
Bank of America to repay $45 bln in TARP funds back with $26.2 bln in excess capital, $18.8 bln in new common equivalent securities
The co will continue to have strong liquidity. Repurchase of TARP preferred stock is expected to reduce income available to common shareholders in Q4 by $4.1 bln, as the book value of the preferred is less than the amount paid. -
Citigroup: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Purchase Price For Shrs About $7.5B - DJ
Citigroup: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Obligated To Purchase 235.6M Citi Shrs In 4 Installments - DJ -
Amazon.com: Cramer on CNBC said he is willing to pay up to $216 per share for AMZN before he'd think it was too expensive - CNBC
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Tänane Euroopa keskpanga kohtumine ei too suure tõenäosusega muutust intressimäärades ning vaevalt ka viiteid võimaliku tõstmise osas lähitulevikus. Küll on aga viimasel ajal hakatud spekuleerima selle üle, kas keskpank muudab uuest aastast 12-kuu laenud kallimaks ning üritab vähendada üleliigsest likviidsusest tekkivat mullide riski. Suurem osa analüütikutest siiski ei usu, et ECB kavatseb spreadi lisada. Ühtlasi avalikustatakse värsked majandusprognoosid, mille raames võidakse praegust üsna tagasihoidlikku 2010.a 0.2%-list ootust ülespoole korrigeerida.
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Mõned põhjused, miks Amazon on väga hea kasvuaktsia: raske on näha, et keegi võtaks Amazonilt turuosa (Amazoni 3Q tulud kasvasid USAs 24% yoy vs online-jaemüügi langus 2-3% yoy), väike osa jaemüügist toimub neti kaudu (võimalus tulusid mitmekordistada, eriti väljaspool USA) ja ettevõtte on tõestanud, et on võimeline uute toodetega turule tulema. Kui võtta praegused konsensuse epsi prognoosid, siis $216 dollari juures on Amazoni 2010. a P/E 86x ja 2011. a. 65x (turg ootab hetkel järgmisel aastal EPSi kasvu 34% yoy ja 2011. aasta 32% yoy). Amazoni keskmine forward P/E on püsinud 33x juures ja 140 dollari juures tunduvad ettevõtte tugevused juba aktsia hinnas sees. Aga Crameri hinnsiht on päris hea näide turu ootustest...
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Goldman Sachsi ökonomistid on väljas oma järgmise aasta nägemusega: The Outlook for 2010/11: Exciting, with risks!”
Our projections suggest that both 2010 and 2011 will be rather strong years—we now expect 4.4% GDP growth for 2010, and a higher 4.5% for 2011. We are above consensus for next year and, while there is no consensus as such for 2011, we suspect we are significantly higher than consensus for 2011 also. With respect to inflation, we are below consensus, despite our relative optimism on GDP.
& järgmise aasta top 10 ideest esimesed kaks:
Top Trade #1: Short S&P 500 Dec10/Dec11 Forward Starting Variance Swap, at 28.20, Target 21. At current levels, forward variance suggests that the coming years will be as volatile as 2009. But this year was the eighth most volatile year on record, and our recent work on the 2004-template—and our models linking macro outcomes to volatility—suggests that even in a sluggish recovery, volatility can continue to decline . . .
Top Trade #2: Long Russian Equities (RDXUSD) at 1,645.9, Target 2,050. Our global macro outlook is still constructive for equities, particularly in parts of EM. We see a significant acceleration in Russian real GDP growth from -9.5% in 2009 to +4.5% in 2010. The Russian index has significant commodity exposure, which we like given our still constructive view on energy . . .
Ülejäänud ideid saab lugeda siit.
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The volume of retail sales in the 16-nation euro zone was unchanged in October from the previous month, the European Union statistics agency Eurostat reported Thursday. Compared to the same month last year, sales fell by 1.9%. Economists had forecast a 0.2% monthly rise and a 2.7% annual decline. Eurostat revised up its estimate of September sales to show a 0.5% monthly decline and a 2.8% year-on-year fall. Eurostat previously estimated a 0.7% monthly decline in September and an annual decline of 3.6%. (marketwatch)
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Euroopa Keskpank jättis intressimäära 1%-le. Kell 15.30 algavat pressikonverentsi on võimalik kuulata siit
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Bank of America TARP redemption accretive to 2010 but about 10% dilutive to "normalized" earnings - Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer notes that BAC announced last night that it had reached an agreement to repay all $45 bln of the TARP preferred stock to the government. They say the key feature of the agreement calls for the company to raise $18.8 bln of new common equity, which at current prices would result in the issuance of 1.2 bln more shares on a base of 8.7 bln. Because of the savings on the preferred dividend requirement, this will be anti-dilutive to the depressed estimated earnings in 2010 but about 10% dilutive to the long-term "normalized" number. In terms of their valuation model, the result is roughly a wash. The TCE/TA increases from 4.8% to 5.8%. They believe WFC is in a better position because it has less urgency, is substantially profitable and never needed "exceptional" assistance.
Fitch ja Calyon upgradedega väljas. Fitch toob upgrade peamiseks põhjenduseks argumendi, et kui valitsus lubab TARP laenu tagasi maksta peaks see indikeerima, et ettevõttel on kapitalibaas piisavalt tugev. -
Initial Claims 457K vs 480K consensus, prior revised to 462K from 466K
Continuing Claims rises to 5.46 mln from 5.43 mln
Q3 Unit Labor Cost- Final -2.5% vs -4.1% consensus, prior -5.2%
Q3 Nonfarm Productivity- Final +8.1% vs +8.5% consensus, prior +9.5%
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pressikas algas
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Microsoft tgt upped to $37 from $34 at BofA Merrill - Reuters
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Euroopa keskpank otsustas jätkata sama soodsatel tingimustel laenamist ka järgmisel aastal ning tõstis nii majanduskasvu kui inflatsiooniprognoose. EUR on peale Tricheti sõnavõttu dollari suhtes kergelt järele andmas.
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SunTrust Banks (STI) initiated with a Sell at Meredith Whitney Advisor Group
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Bespoke'i kokkuvõte novembrikuu jaemüügist:
This morning's news-flow on November same store sales show that November was not friendly month for the malls. Of the 24 companies issues results, only eight (33%) showed an increase versus November of last year...
Compared to expectations, retail sales were even worse. Of the 24 companies we saw reports for, only seven managed to beat the Briefing.com analyst estimate (AEO, GPS, JWN, KSS, LTD, ROST, WTSLA). With these kind of numbers, its hard to anticipate a strong holiday season, especially since many companies rolled out holiday promotions earlier than expected.
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ISM kehv:
November ISM Services 48.7 vs 51.5 consensus, October 50.6 -
Fed's Bernanke says must be ready to withdraw stimulus in timely way - DJ
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Reuters reports the White House has seen signs that the U.S. unemployment rate to be announced on Friday "might tick upward," spokesman Robert Gibbs said on Thursday at a news briefing. (briefing)
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& eelmist kommentaari on täiendatud: CNBC reports that Robert Gibbs says earlier headlines were incorrect, says he doesnt have the slightest idea of what unemployment data will be tomorrow (homme avaldatav töötusemäär jääb konsensuse hinnangul 10.2% juurde)
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Mingi Goldmani NFP numbri rumor on välja ujunud või?
Miks turg kukkus? -
Bullard
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Karta on. Me peame intresse tõstma, vaatamata töötusele on päris kõva hoop.
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Bullard:
* High Unemployment May Not Preclude Fed Tightening
* Jobless Recoveries Could Change How Fed Acts
* Jobless Recoveries Could Be New Normal For Economy
* Rate Rise Still Likely Depends On Lower Unemployment -
Selgelt erandlikud headlined.
