Börsipäev 7. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Reedene kauplemispäev lõppes USA turgudel positiivse noodiga, kuigi eufooria töökohtade oodatust oluliselt väiksema kadumise üle kustus päeva teises pooles. Erisugune on sentiment olnud ka täna hommikul Aasias, kui Jaapani turgu jätkuvalt toetamas jeeni kursi püsimine dollari suhtes 90 lähedal (eelmise nädala alguses liikus USDJPY kurss 86.3 juures).
Olulist makrot täna oodata pole, mainimist vääriksid Saksamaa oktoobrikuu tehasetellimuste lõpliku numbri avaldamine kell 13.00 ja USA tarbijakrediidi näit kell 22.00.
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USA Rahandusministeeriumi hinnangul läheb TARP järgmise kümne aasta jooksul maksma maksimaalselt 141 miljardit dollarit. Number on 200 miljardit väiksem alles augustis prognoositud 341 miljardist dollarist.
30.09.09 seisuga on TARPi raames investeeritud 245 miljardit dollarit, millest 71 miljardit on juba tagasi makstud (lisaks on Bank of America lubanud 45 miljardit tagasi maksta). Teisipäeval peab Obama kõne, kust oodatakse plaani, mida tagasi makstud TARPi rahaga tehakse (luuakse töökohti, vähendatakse eelarve puudujääki?). -
JPM näeb, et rallil on jalad all & näeb Euroopa aktsiates +17% tõusuruumi 2010. aasta lõpuks:
“We find investors to be skeptical regarding the durability of the unfolding economic recovery, but our view is that it will have legs, with an improvement in labour markets confirming its sustainability,” the strategist wrote. “In addition, the stabilization in the credit markets, signs of house prices troughing, steep yield curve and the rebound in corporate profitability are the positives.”
CSi hinnangul liiguvad globaalsed aktsiaturud 2010. aasta keskpaigaks +12% ülespoole:
Credit Suisse Group forecasts 12 percent gains in global equities by mid-2010 followed by a “renewed bear market” as the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged until the fourth quarter of next year. Credit Suisse is “overweight” stocks, saying equities “clearly look more attractive” than corporate bonds, according to a research report by London-based Andrew Garthwaite, Credit Suisse’s managing director for global equity strategy, today.
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EUR/USD viimase kuu uutes põhjades @ 1.476.
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Seitse kuud MoM kasvu näidanud Saksama tehasetellimused vähenesid ootamatult oktoobris, kui prognoositud 0.8%-lise kasvu asemel tellimuste maht hoopis kukkus 2.1% võrreldes septembriga. Tellimused välisriikidest vähenesid -3.5%, samal ajal kuid langus kodumaistes tellimustes osutus keskmisest leebemaks (-0.5%). Aastatagustele tellimustele jäi tänavune number -8.5%-ga alla, kuid trend ülespoole siiski jätkus.
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Karusid väga vähe turule jäänud (link):
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Tänases FTs ülevaade olukorrast ärikinnisvaras, mis toob taas esile, et Dubais on näha alles probleemide algust (loe raportit siit):
The scale of refinancing represents one of the biggest hurdles for property investors and their banks to overcome. About $1,600bn of commercial mortgage debt is estimated to mature in the next five years in the US and a further €366bn in Europe. This represents a massive equity call on the property sector. In July, a delegation of property financiers used a forum with the Bank of England and Treasury to warn of the threat posed by the lack of finance to cover loans due for renewal.
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Goldman Sachs on Potashi (POT) neutraalse soovituse tõstnud "osta" peale. Goldmani uus hinnasiht on $140, mis on hetkel analüütikute kõrgeim. GS poolt pakutud kaks katalüsaatorit POTile on välja toodud ka Notable Callsis, mida saab lugeda siit. POT on eelturul +1.8% plusspoolel.
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Rev Shark: New Themes
12/07/2009 8:04 AMInstead of seeing the rug being pulled from under us, we can learn to dance on a shifting carpet.
-- Thomas CrumWe had some interesting action on Friday, and now the big question is whether we might see some new market themes emerge. Three things of note occurred on Friday.
First, a much-better-than-expected jobs report causes a sharp gap up. Many bears question the validity of some of these numbers, but there is no question that the headline numbers were above expectations. We jumped sharply higher initially but sold off the rest of the day, which raises the concern that maybe the market has already discounted this positive. When the market fails to go higher on positive news, it's often a warning sign that we are near a turning point.
The second major thing that occurred Friday was that the dollar rallied sharply. The better-than-expected jobs news increases the chances the Fed will start raising interest rates sooner, which strengthens the dollar. The most obvious evidence of the rise in the dollar was a sharp drop in gold, which has been enjoying a parabolic rise for several months as the dollar fell steadily. Oil and commodity stocks also fell on the stronger dollar, but we did see some signs of rotation into technology names as investors looked for stocks less sensitive to the dollar.
The third thing of interest on Friday was Bank of America's (BAC) secondary offering, which was done to raise cash to repay the TARP loans. News that indexers had to buy a large amount of BAC shares helped to drive it up for most of the day, which may have pressured other stocks in the major indices that had to be sold down slightly due to the increased capitalization of Bank of America. Overall financials were very mixed following the Bank of America news, and there is some disappointment that they did not act better.
So will these themes develop further? The market's very strong inverse correlation with the dollar is the most important thing to watch. There is talk that the carry trade, where investors borrow funds at very low rates to invest elsewhere, may shift back to the yen as the dollar strengthens. If the dollar does indeed start to trend upward, it is going to be very tough going for oil, gold, agriculture, commodities and other resources stocks.
Financials have led the market for much of the rally since the March lows, and their failure to rally better on news that BAC is capable of raising capital to repay TARP is worrisome. This market needs this group to continue to show signs of recovery to keep the uptrend in pace.
One of the biggest negatives about the market lately has been the narrowness of the strength. Small-caps have underperformed significantly, while a small group of big-cap technology stocks like Amazon (AMZN), Priceline (PCLN), Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) have kept the major indices elevated. We have had some very frothy speculation in some China names, but overall there is very little leadership in this market.
We have a lot of crosscurrents out there right now, and we're seeing some very confused action. We need to watch the sector action very careful to see what new themes may develop. If the dollar continues to reverse its downtrend, it is going to be very chaotic as market players reposition. Technology stocks may be the way to go if things do continue to shift, and I'll be focusing on them.
We have a slightly weak open shaping but overall it is quiet.
No positions.
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USA futuurid indikeerivad hetkel avanemist -0.25% madalamal.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0,51%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,35%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0,49%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0,08%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0,12%
Venemaa MICEX -1,70%
Poola WIG -0,70%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1,45%
Hongkongi Hang Seng -0,77%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,44%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1,11%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,71%
Tai Set 50 N/A (täna suletud)
India Sensex 30 -0,69% -
Gapping down:
Select European financial names showing weakness: IRE -4.1%, LYG -3.1%, RBS -3.1%, HBC -2.4%, AIB -2.1%, ING -2.0%, CS -1.9%, UBS -1.5%... Select metals/mining related names trading lower: IAG -3.2%, GOLD -3.1%, AU -3.0%, AUY -2.3%, KGC -2.3%, SLW -2.2%, SLV -2.1%, RTP -1.9% (Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton sign deal on ore venture - NY Times), EGO -1.8%, AEM -1.7%, NEM -1.6%, GG -1.6%, GLD -1.5%, BBL -1.3%, BHP -1.2% (Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton sign deal on ore venture - NY Times), HMY -1.1%... Select airlines ticking lower: CAL -4.6%, DAL -2.4%, LCC -1.8%... Other news: SOMX -67.4% (receives Complete Response Letter from the FDA for Silenor NDA), CHINA -6.1% (announces additional purchase of convertible notes), AXL -5.5% (announced a 14 mln share common stock offering)... Analyst comments: BARE -5.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters), ZLC -5.2% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil), AAP -1.8% (light volume; downgraded to Underperform at FBR), SI -1.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley), CREE -1.2% (downgraded to Market Perform at Morgan Keegan), JNPR -1.2% (downgraded to Sell at Auriga), STO -1.0% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank).
Gapping up:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: AKAM +5.7%... M&A news: ROY +46.1% (informed by Franco-Nevada of its intention to make an offer for IRC for C$6.75/share in cash), TRA +8.8% (CF Industries increases offer for Terra Industries by $4.75 cash/share for new value of $45.91/share)... Other news: ATSI +13.8% (light volume; announces CE Mark approval for the ATS 3f enable bioprosthesis), GSM +10.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MDR +8.9% (plans to separate into two independent companies: Babcock & Wilcox and J. Ray McDermott), CTIC +6.8% (Pixantrone produces 250% relative improvement in 1 year progression free survival for patients with relapsed/refractory, aggressive NHL), SGEN +5.1% (reports "positive" data from phase I weekly-dosing clinical trial of Brentuximab Vedotin in lymphoma), SNTS +4.2% (receives FDA approval for immediate-release omeprazole tablet with dual buffers), TASR +4.2% (receives order for 140 TASER X26 ECDs from Colombian National Police; the order is expected to ship in the fourth quarter of 2009), ALTH +2.0% (reports new analyses of data from PROPEL trial of FOLOTYN), PCL +1.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), DAI +1.2% (sees Mercedes sales up significantly in Q4 - Reuters.com)... Analyst comments: NYB +10.3% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR), SPWRA +5.2% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), JASO +4.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), AMD +3.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Bernstein), BRCD +2.8% (upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer), STP +2.7% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), CMI +2.4% (Hearing added to Buy List at tier 1 firm), POT +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- Reuters).
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Fed's Bernanke says Fed will monitor inflation closely but it appears likely to remain subdued for some time - Reuters
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Fed Chairman Bernanke says the FOMC looking at keeping rates low for an extended period of time; does note there are signs of the economy improving
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Püütakse ikka positiivsust leida, kommenteerides Bernanke rõõmsat ilmet. Majandus peab korras olema kuna Bernanke naeratas.
Bernanke jutu peale kadus USD-l põhi. -
October Consumer Credit -$3.5 bln vs -$9.4 bln consensus, prior revised to -$8.8 bln from -$14.8 bln
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vanad wall streeti haid teavad rääkida, et don' fight the fed
