Börsipäev 11. detsember
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Aasias oli täna korralik rallipäev, suurim tõusja Jaapani aktsiaturg 2.5%ga. USA futuurid varasel eelturul kergelt plussis.
Makroandmete poole pealt avaldatakse täna kell 15.30 novembrikuu jaemüügistatistika, kust oodatakse jaemüügi 0.6%list kasvu (ilma autodeta +0.4%). Kell 16.55 tuleb Michigani sentimendi detsembrikuu küsitluse esialgne näit, millelt oodatakse praegu 68.8 punkti, mis tähistaks võrreldes novembrikuu 67.4 punktiga sentimendi paranemist. -
Siit leiab kolm videointervjuud Jim Rogersiga, milles ta avaldab oma nägemuse, et uued regulatsioonid viivad uute kriisideni ning kokkuvõttes peaks Föderaalreservi üldse ära kaotama. Viimane kukub aga tema sõnul Greenspani ja Bernanke tehtud vigade tõttu nagunii ise kokku. Ühtlasi usub Rogers, et lühiajaline ralli dollaris poleks üllatuseks, kuid pikemas perspektiivis jääb USA valuuta suhtes äärmiselt negatiivseks.
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Euroopas ei ole Kreeka tõusuga kaasa läinud ja kaupleb miinuspoolel. Väikses miinuses on ka Ukraina, kes soovib IMF-lt koheselt 2 miljardit, et varasemaid võlakohustusi tasuda & vältida probleemide levimist teistesse KIE riikidesse. Ukraina on kriisis väga valusalt pihta saanud ja SKP on sellel aastal kukkunud ca 15%. IMF on Kiievit toetanud $11 miljardi dollariga, kuid kaks kuud tagasi peatati lubatud 3.8 miljardi suurune abi, kuna Kiiev ei suutnud läbi viija vajalikke reforme.
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Jaemüük novembris oodatust parem:
November Retail Sales +1.3% vs +0.6% consensus, prior revised to +1.1% from +1.4%.
November Retail Sales ex-auto +1.2% vs +0.4% consensus, prior revised to 0.0% from +0.2%.
November Import Price M/M +1.7% vs +1.2% consensus; Y/Y +3.7% vs +2.9% consensus. -
Waiting for a Breakout
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
12/11/2009 8:20 AM EST
If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
-- Henry David Thoreau
Over the past few weeks the market has traded in the tightest range of the year. The recent action has also been extremely dull. We have had some strength in big-cap technology names and are still dancing around to every move in the dollar but there has been little leadership, few strong themes and little momentum. The market just isn't offering us much opportunity.
The good news is that tight trading ranges and dull action provides a good foundation for a strong move. Market players are just biding their time waiting for the market to break out of the trading range. Once it does, the hot money will jump in and try to ride a breakout move. The longer and tighter the foundation is, the stronger a breakout move should be when we do come out of the range.
Another piece of good news is that in an uptrending market like we have had since March, the greater likelihood is that the breakout move will be to the upside. The consolidation phase is just a pause that refreshes and allows profit-takers to exit and stronger hands to step in.
But we can't be too sanguine that the market will break out of this trading range to the upside. There are some problems under the surface, such as relative weakness in financials and small-caps. We have also had quite a few "distribution" days lately, which is when the market pulls back on increased volume. This is regarded as an indication that institutions are selling.
I've recently been discussing the possibility that we might see a sector rotation kick in as the dollar strengthens and money moves from commodities, energy and gold. So far we aren't seeing many signs of that occurring. Technology, particularly semiconductors, do have better relative strength lately, but the dollar isn't ramping up enough to really kick start a stronger rotation. We'll continue to monitor this closely.
Right now the strongest group of stocks in the market is big-cap technology, such as Google (GOOG) , Priceline (PCLN) , Apple (AAPL) , Research In Motion (RIMM) and Amazon (AMZN) . I wouldn't be surprised if they continue to lead into the end of the year. Money managers who need to take on some performance points will focus on these stocks.
This morning the dollar is back down and overseas markets were strong, which is giving us a boost. The tendency lately has been that the action slows quite a bit once the market opens, giving us limited opportunities. The bulls need more sustained energy intraday to move us out of the trading range. We'll see if they can build on this gap up, but it is going to take some work.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CBK +18.6%, ESL +2.4%... Select oil/gas names ticking higher: TOT +1.6%, E +1.6%, PBR +1.4%, RDS.A +1.0% (Royal Dutch Shell and Petronas win Iraqi oil contract - Times of London)... Select metals/mining names showing early strength: HL +3.3%, BBL +2.9%, BHP +2.8%, GSS +2.5%, GOLD +2.5%, IAG +2.2%, SLW +2.1%, MT +1.9%, RTP +1.9%, VALE +1.8%, KGC +1.6%, GFI +1.6%... Other news: RAS +7.4% (completes extensions of all secured credit facilities), ING +4.5% (to repay Dutch state EUR 5 bln Core Tier 1 securities on December 21), FRO +3.7% (still checking), RYAAY +3.4% (still checking), SPPI +2.8% (announces Zevalin demonstrated activity in several investigational phase 2 trials), NBG +2.6% (Greece to meet obligations, cut deficit, PM says - Reuters.com), STM +2.2% (still checking), BA +2.1% (completes the review and analysis of the static test that was conducted Nov. 30 to validate the side-of-body modification made to the 787 Dreamliner), ERJ +1.9% (signs accord with China's CDB Leasing - WSJ.com), SAP +1.8% (Reuters reports that Microsoft and SAP Ag will voice their concerns at a European Union hearing on Friday over Oracle's plan to buy JAVA), GMCR +1.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), AZN +1.0% (Phase III CONFIRM study shows FASLODEX (fulvestrant) injection 500 mg may delay time of disease progression over 250-mg dose in postmenopausal women with hormone receptor-positive advanced breast cancer)... Analyst comments: NOK +3.5% (upgraded to Hold at SocGen), YHOO +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Kaufman Bros), NCR +2.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), EW +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Citigroup, ests and tgt raised to $100 at Credit Suisse following analyst day), AOL +1.6% (initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein, initiated with a Hold at Benchmark), EMC +1.0% (resumed with an Outperform at FBR Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NSM -3.1%, HNT -1.3% (also Fidelity discloses new 10%+ stakes)... Other news: DEER -26.1% (announces the pricing of a public offering of 6 mln shares of its stock at an offering price of $11.00/share. Deer has granted the underwriters an over-allotment option to purchase 900K additional shares of stock at the public offering price), SGEN -6.5% (announces termination of collaboration agreement with Genentech for Dacetuzumab ), USEG -6.5% (Hearing weakness attributed to secondary pricing), KGS -5.8% (Quicksilver Gas to acquire Alliance midstream assets for $87.1 million; also announces a 4 mln share common unit offering), SIRO -4.1% (filed for public offering by Sirona Holdings Luxco S.C.A. of 7,100,000 shares of its common stock), AIB -3.7% (still checking), STRL -2.3% (announces pricing of common stock offering at $18.00), CHL -2.1% (still checking for anything specific), DNDN -1.8% (prices 15.0 mln common shares at $24.75/share). -
USA futuurid indikeerivad börsipäeva algust S&P500 indeksile ca 0.5% kõrgemal, Nasdaq100 +0.4%, nafta on muutumatuna @ $70.5.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1,32%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,77%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0,99%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,48%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0,91%
Venemaa MICEX +0,29%
Poola WIG +0,66%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2,48%
Hongkongi Hang Seng +0,93%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0,22%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,20%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1,18%
Tai Set 50 +1,45%
India Sensex 30 -0,41% -
Kopenhageni kliimakonverentsil astub teiste seas homme üles ka Chesapeake Energy (CHK) tegevjuht Aubrey McClendon. Eesmärgiks rõhuda maagaasi oluliselt puhtamale ökoloogilisele jalajäljele võrreldes naftaga või kivisöega (gaasi põletamisel tuleb 50% kuni 70% vähem kasvuhoonegaase, kui tuleb seda kivisöe kasutamisel).
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December University of Michigan Sentiment- prelim 73.4 vs 68.8 consensus, November 67.4
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October Business Inventories +0.2% vs -0.2% consensus, prior revised to -0.5% from -0.4%
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Maagaasi tundub ka väike elu sisse tulevat. Kui naftahind on langenud alla $70 ja kaupleb ca 0.5% miinuses, siis maagaas on hommikusest miinusest välja tulnud ja kaupleb 1% jagu plusspoolel.
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JPMorgan officially raising Q4 GDP forecast from +3.5% to +4.5%
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Pärast seda, kui Itaalia valitsus teatas, et kaalub maagaasisõidukite järgmise aasta valitsusepoolse programmi toetussummasid ca 20% võrra vähendada, on FSYSi aktsia kahe päevaga üle 15% langenud. Hoiame silma peal, sest ettevõte on tegelikult korduvalt rõhutanud, et Itaalia valitsus võib olla oma toetusi vähendamas ning et seda võidakse teha isegi kuni 50% ulatuses. Seega iseenesest 20%line vähendamine ei ole veel midagi väga hullu, aga eks investorid otsisid pärast väga tugevat rallit ka põhjust, et aktsiat müüa ja see oli selleks hea ettekääne.
