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Börsipäev 21. detsember

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  • Jõulud on ukse ees ning jäänud veel vaid loetud päevad. Õnneks on jõulumeeleolu loomisele kaasa aitamas Eestit kattev ilus lumevaip. See-eest börsidel peaks antud nädalal kaubeldavad mahud olema keskmisest väiksemad, kuna iga mööduva päevaga läheb üha enam turuosalisi tegema viimaseid pühade ettevalmistusi.

    Olulisi majandussündmusi USAst täna tulmas ei ole. Eelturul on tähtsamad indeksid, nafta ning dollari kurss võrreldes reedese sulgumisega suuremate muutusteta.
  • Väga vaikne eelturg, kuid oluliste uudiste ja likviidsuse puududes on kauplejad aktsiaid aasta lõpus pigem üles ostmas. On turgudele teada-tuntud tõde, et 'don't short the dull market' ehk kui turgudel midagi põnevat toimumas ei ole, ei tasu selles seni ka lühike olla.

  • Euroopa oli valdavalt plussis ning ka USA alustab päeva tugevalt. S&P500 indeksi futuurid on eelturul tõusnud 0.6%, nafta on kerkinud ca 1% ja jõudnud tasemele $75 barrelist.

    Euroopa turud:
    Saksamaa DAX +0,76%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1,07%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +1,22%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,68% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0,72%
    Venemaa MICEX +0,20%
    Poola WIG +0,03%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,41%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng -1,08%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,29%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,47%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,84%
    Tai Set 50 +0,08%
    India Sensex 30 -0,71%

  • Look for Hot Sectors in a Rangebound Market
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    12/21/2009 8:44 AM EST

    Genius is nothing but a great aptitude for patience.
    -- George-Louis de Buffon

    With 2009 rapidly winding down, we are at an interesting juncture as the market is sitting in a six-week-long trading range. Can we break out of that range and see a trend develop?

    The bulls are optimistic that positive seasonality and money managers looking to add performance will drive us higher over the 7½ trading days left in the year. The bears, on the other hand, argue that many folks are ready to lock in gains and move to the sidelines, especially as they come to realize that we still are dealing with severe economic problems.

    In a market like this, which is in a very choppy trading range, the best thing to do is focus more on individual stock-picking than overall market direction. Such stock-picking has been difficult, though, because there are no real clear pockets of momentum. We have had the oil and commodity trade for a while as the dollar trended down, but that reversed in the last week and now the chances look good that the dollar may bounce a bit more.

    Other than the dollar trade, the trading themes have been very sparse. A lot of folks were looking for big-cap names, such as Apple (AAPL) , Google (GOOG) , Amazon (AMZN) , Priceline (PCLN) , Baidu (BIDU) and the like, to lead as money managers chased them in hopes of some relative outperformance. So far the group has been a very mixed bag, but those are still likely the "go to" names should we see a Santa Claus rally in the next two weeks.

    The great thing about trading during the holidays is that we often have a positive mood, and traders will gravitate toward certain sectors and drive them up nicely. I'm still waiting for some better evidence of that occurring. We have had a little action lately in groups like solar energy, fertilizers, gold, small-cap China and natural gas, but it has not been smooth or persistent.

    Rangebound markets can provide great opportunities, but you need to find what is hot and focus on those sectors. We'll see what comes to life this week and concentrate on those areas, but it has been a chaotic and uncertain market for a while, and we have to be careful not to force trades just because we are anxious to find some action.

    We have some upbeat action to kick off the week, but Monday-morning gaps are always suspect. The news wires are fairly slow and will continue to be that way through the end of the year. It has been hard to make much progress lately as this market churns, so the important thing is to just keep at it until the opportunities come.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NTWK +26.7%, TSEM +5.3%, CAG +3.8%, WAG +3.4%... M&A news: CHTT +32.8% (Chattem and Sanofi-aventis confirm that Sanofi-aventis will acquire Chattem for $93.50/share)... Select construction/ag names showing strength: BUCY +8.4% and TEX +7.2%, DE +3.6%, JOYG +1.3%, CAT +1.2%... Select oil/gas names showing early strength: KWK +3.9%, CHK +2.1%, TOT +1.4%, RDS.A +1.3% (Shell eyes asset sales in Nigeria - WSJ), BP +1.3%, SU +1.2%, PBR +1.0%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +2.7%, VALE +1.9%, IAG +1.4%... Other news: ATHX +97.0% (Athersys enters into global agreement with Pfizer to develop and market MultiStem for treatment of inflammatory bowel disease), SGEN +9.1% (announces antibody-drug conjugate collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline), NVMI +8.9% (announces additional bookings of $10 mln), INCY +8.8% (Eli Lilly and Incyte announce collaboration for development and commercialization of oral anti-nflammatory and autoimmune therapies; reconfirms FY09 EPS guidance), PCS +5.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CTIC +4.4% (granted pixantrone orphan drug designation for the treatment of DLBCL), AUO +4.1% (discloses earthquake that occurred on December 19, 2009 has no significant impact on finance and operation), MOS +3.2% (mentioned positive in Barron's; also upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $68 from $64- Reuters), AA +2.9% (Saudi Maaden, Alcoa in $10.8 bln aluminium deal - Reuters), ISIS +2.6% (ISIS Pharm to receive $10 mln from OncoGenex' license of OGX-011 to Teva), CVS +2.0% (up in sympathy with WAG), BAC +1.5% (mentioned positive in Barron's)... Analyst comments: PAL +4.6% (initiated with a Overweight at Thomas Weisel), POT +2.8% (Goldman also adds Potash (POT) to their Conviction Buy List - Reuters), HGSI +2.6% (initiated with Overweight at Morgan Stanley), PALM +2.3% (upgraded to Hold at Morgan Joseph based on valuation, upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Macquarie), STX +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), INTC +1.9% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GIGM -6.0%... Other news: IRE -15.2% and AIB -11.0% (Allied Irish Banks and BoI risk state ownership, warns Honohan - Independent), GOK -8.1% (wholly-owned subsidiary, Geokinetics Holdings USA, priced an offering of $300 mln in aggregate principal amount of 9.75% senior secured notes due 2014), OGXI -5.5% (OncoGenex Pharma and Teva announce they have entered into a global license and collaboration agreement to develop and commercialize OGX-011)... Analyst comments: BCSI -4.0% (downgraded to Neutral at Merriman), NOK -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), GPS -0.6% (downgraded to Hold at Jesup & Lamont).
  • Fed's Evans, on CNBC, says he expects low inflation to continue for the next couple of years
  • EUR, kuld ja nüüd nafta -> kõik punasesse vajunud, kas täna lõppeb esmaspäev teisiti, kui seda on viimased kuud tehtud?

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