Börsipäev 25. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Järgmise 2-3 nädala jooksul teatab suurem osa USA börsil noteeritud ettevõtetest oma 4. kvartali tulemustest - seega põhirõhk on just ettevõtetelt tuleval informatsioonil ning aktsiaturgude meelestatud võib muutuda iga päevaga, olles kord ülevoolavalt positiivne ning järgmine päev juba väga negatiivne.
Makrouudistest avaldatakse Eesti aja järgi täna kell 17.00 USA detsembrikuu olemasolevate eluasemete müüginumbrid, kus konsensusootus on 5.9 miljonit (vs novembri 6.54 miljonit).
Nädalavahetusel on Morgan Stanley arutlenud naftahinna teemadel ning jõudnud järeldusele, et konsensusootused on liialt konservatiivsed ning Morgan Stanley kergitas oma 2012. aasta naftahinna prognoosi $105ni barrelist, öeldes, et nende arvates testitakse $95 taset juba enne selle aasta lõppu. -
Intervjuu Jim Rogersi ja Kirby Daley'ga, kelle arvates Bernanke ei näinud absoluutselt ette USA majanduse aeglustumist ning seetõttu ei usuta, et ta suudaks ka praegu riiki langusest adekvaatselt välja juhtida. Rogersi arvates toob Bernanke tegevus kaasa ühel hetkel keskpanga-süsteemi ärakadumise.
Kellele Bernanke ja keskpanga-suunaline kriitika meeldib, siis tasub kuulata - link siin.
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Täna peale turgu oodatakse innuga Apple’i tulemusi, mis traditsiooniliselt on löönud ettevõtte enda konservatiivseid prognoose ning analüütikute arvates juhtub see tänagi. Läinud reedel sattus aktsia võrdlemisi tugeva müügisurve alla ja turukapitalisatsioonist pühiti minema pea 10 miljardit dollarit. Osalt oli see tingitud turu üldisest meeleolust, ent ka finantsmeedia ebakorrektsusel oli siin oma roll. Nimelt levisid jutud, et Deutsche Bank oli Apple’i aktsia oma ostunimekirjast eemaldanud ja CNBC kogunisti tõlgendas seda dowgrade’na. Mis tegelikult juhtus oli see, et Apple’i kuuekuuline tähtaeg sai panga lühiajalises ostunimekirjas läbi ja süsteem automaatselt eemaldas väärtpaberi nimekirjast ning Deutsche rahvas ei suvatsenud sellele esialgu põhjalikumat kommentaari jagada. 1.5 tundi enne turgude sulgemist CNBC küll korrigeeris oma uudist, kuid sellel hetkel oli negatiivne momentum juba liiga tugev, et laeva ümber pöörata. Järelturul seevastu liikus hind 2.3% kõrgemale.
Tänaste tulemuste juures prognoosib konsensus, et GAAP põhjal ulatus läinud kolme kuu käive 12.05 miljardi dollarini ja aktsiakasum 2.07 dollarini. Non-GAAP (iPhone pealt teenitud tulu ei jaotata 24 kuu peale) puhul on ootuseks aga 14.93 miljardit USD ja 3.49 USD ehk kasvu aastatagusega võrreldes vastavalt 31% ja 27%.
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Eelmisel nädalal teatas Kreeka, et müüb 3-5 miljardi euro eest valitsuse 5. a võlakirju. Sellel nädalal alanud oksjonil tasub silm peal hoida, kuna see näitab hästi, milline on investorite huvi finantseerida Kreeka valitsuse võlga:
If for any reason the deal does not come or is not viewed as a success the it will alert the markets and the rating agencies to the fact that Greece’s ability to fund itself has been curtailed, which could easily lead to a vicious circle of further debt downgrades and rising yields. Let’s hope for their sake that the market calms down somewhat because they are going to need all the help they can get considering comments made by ECB member Gonzalez-Paramo. He said that he considered as absurd the idea that the EU would provide Greece with a loan. (link)
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Finantssektoris on tähelepanu jätkuvalt Valge Maja plaanil reguleerida pankade spekuleerimist finantsturgudel. Regulatsioonid satuvad täpsemalt tähelepanu alla Davosis (27.01-31.01), kuhu ilmuvad kohale nii poliitikud kui pankade juhid. Lisaks pankadele & paljudele analüütikutele on regulatsioonide vastu ka nt Suurbritannia rahandusminister Alistair Darling:
Alistair Darling warns today that President Obama’s proposals for shaking up the banks would not have prevented the crisis and risk undermining the international consensus on reforming the financial system (times).
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IBD soovitas 2008. aastal turgudest eemale hoida & tabas üsna täpselt eelmisel aastal suunamuutuse. Reedel muudeti turu nägemus esimest korda "korrektsiooni" peale:
Friday marked the 5th major distribution day in the last month and volume has been substantial during the recent downturn. The market has also moved through the 50 day moving average. On a more micro basis IBD is growing increasingly concerned about specific leadership action. Many of the best performing names have begun to underperform on a relative basis. All of this adds up to a “market in correction” – IBD’s most cautious investment outlook.
MLCO soovitab korrektsiooni jätkumiseks just praegust taset radaril hoida:
Support was broken at 1000 on the S&P 500. The S&P is testing the 90-day moving average at 1092. This moving average is important because all pullbacks since the March ’09 lows have held this level. A break of the 90-day points to a first test of 1085-1075. A break this level would then point to a test of the 200-day moving average near 1000 or a 13% correction from the high.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.36%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.08%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.25%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.40%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.43%
Venemaa MICEX +0.69%
Poola WIG -0.14%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.74%
Hongkongi Hang Seng -0.62%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.09%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.53%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.28%
Tai Set 50 -0.57%
India Sensex 30 -0.47% -
This Move Feels Different
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/25/2010 8:44 AM EST
Under democracy, one party always devotes its chief energies to trying to prove that the other party is unfit to rule -- and both commonly succeed, and are right.
H.L. Mencken
We are kicking off the week with a bit of a relief bounce following the worst market action since June and early July. For the first time in a while, we had some high volume follow-through to the downside and cracked some important technical support.
One of the differences this time was that market players viewed the news flow as extremely negative. We were already struggling a bit after the 'sell-the-news' reaction to good reports from IBM (IBM) and Intel (INTC) , but then Google (GOOG) put up some mediocre numbers, and Goldman Sachs (GS) and the big banks took a hit after the Obama administration set its sights on evil and greedy financials.
To add to the problems, the reappointment of Ben Bernanke as Fed head has been less certain and vulnerable politicians have looked for cover. Wall Street isn't totally satisfied with Dr. Bernanke, but with Volker gaining influence in the Obama administration, his replacement would likely be far less friendly to Wall Street.
Our stunning rally last year was driven primarily by a friendly Washington, which provided bailouts and massive liquidity. Wall Street outperformed Main Street to a tremendous degree and now it is starting to suffer from political backlash. Politicians see Wall Street as having benefited far too much from economic policies, and that makes the investor class a very easy political target.
The million-dollar question at this point is whether or not we are undergoing a major change in market character that will lead to a downtrend and a severe correction. We clearly suffered some notable damage last week, but for the last seven months or so, this market has quickly shrugged off any weakness and gone straight back up. At least a half dozen times we have come back from the brink of a breakdown and quickly made a new highs.
This time, the action has a different feel to it. Our prior pullbacks were mostly caused by overbought conditions and an argument that we had gone up too far and too fast. Many folks struggled to reconcile the strength of the market with the poor economy on Main Street, but there was never any catalyst to help close the gap. While we knew that much of the strength was driven by massive liquidity, there wasn't anything happening to slow down the market momentum. Now the news flow has shifted, and that is what is causing the character of this market to look much more problematic.
The main thing we have to watch for technically is a failed bounce and a move under last week's low. That will cement the fact that a trend change is occurring. We have a pretty standard Monday morning bounce. There are some optimistic comments about Apple's (AAPL) earnings report tonight and a little less worry about Ben Bernanke's job, but the bulls definitely have their work cut out for them.
We have a very heavy schedule of earnings reports this week, but Apple is going to be the star. If we have a 'sell-the-news' reaction to that report, it is going to be very difficult going.
Don't get too excited about the early strength today. It is exactly what you'd expect after the ugly action last week. A lot of folks were trapped and they will be looking to escape into strength. That is what overhead resistance is all about.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PHG +6.9%, MED +6.5%, SILC +5.8% (light volume)... Select financial related names rebounding: RBS +6.8%, ING +6.5%, GNW +5.9%, CS +5.4%, BCS +5.3% (Barclays to defer bonuses - FT), PUK +4.5%, PRU +4.0%, MBI +3.7%, AEG +3.2%, HBC +2.7%, C +2.5%, STD +2.1%, MS +1.7%, BAC +1.3%... Select metals/mining names showing strength: MT +5.1%, RTP +3.5% and BHP +3.1% (EU opens probe into BHP, Rio iron joint venture - Reuters.com), BBL +3.1%, IAG +2.2% (says year-end gold reserves increase by 17%, niobium reserves increase by 32%), VALE +1.9%... Select oil/gas names trading higher: PBR +1.9%, PTR +1.6%, SU +1.5%... Select shippers ticking higher boosted by analyst upgrades: DRYS +4.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Cantor Fitzgerald), DSX +35%, OSG +2.9%, FRO +2.9%, NAT +1.0% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Cantor)... Other news: SOMX +4.6% (continued strength from Friday's 100%+surge higher), UMPQ +4.5% (light volume; acquires banking operations of EvergreenBank via FDIC), HEV +4.3% (Ener1 selected to supply batteries for Japanese electric bus demo), SI +3.4% (still checking), CLNE +3.2% (announces Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport has awarded a 10-year contract), SLE +2.6% (mentioned positively in Barron's), CCOI +2.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), FRX +2.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), INTC +1.3% (mentioned positively in Barron's), GS +1.2% (Goldman Sachs UK partners cap their pay at 1 mln pounds each - BBC), ACOR +1.2% (announces FDA approval of AMPYRA to improve walking in people with multiple sclerosis - demonstrated by increases in walking speed)... Analyst comments: ACXM +1.9% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), SAP +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), SLB +1.6% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR), KSP +1.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at Wells Fargo).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: HAL -2.1%... M&A news: KFT -1.1% (Italy's Ferrero rules out bidding for Cadbury - Reuters)...Other news: PARD -15.7% (announces Ph. 2 trial of picoplatin in metastatic colorectal cancer meet primary endpoint and study objectives; downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Leerink Swann and downgraded to Sell at Canaccord Adams), AGEN -8.6% (files a $100 mln mixed securities shelf offering in an S-3 filing), GAME -4.3% (announces resignation of Chief Executive Officer Diana Li), BIOS -3.7% (light volume; announces it has signed a definitive agreement to acquire Critical Homecare Solutions), UNH -1.5% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: STI -1.3% (downgraded to Sell at Stifel Nicolaus), IGT -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman). -
Tulemuste tabel nüüd hommikuste teatajatega uuendatud - link siin. Nii CNH Global, Eaton kui ka Halliburton lõid ootusi nii kasumi kui ka müügitulude osas. Neist kaks esimest on ka plussis, kuid Halliburton on sarnaselt konkurent Schlumbergerile, kes teatas oma numbrid reedel, tulemuste järel miinuses.
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Eluasemete müük alla ootuste... vähemalt alla ametlike ootuste.
December Existing Homes Sales 5.45 mln vs 5.90 mln consensus; -16.7 % m/m -
Kreeka võlakirjade oksjoni algus tugev:
WSJ reports the Greek government enjoyed a much-needed boost Monday as investors piled into its new €5 billion ($7.07 billion), five-year syndicated bond issue, registering more than €20 billion of orders in around three hours. But while getting some cash in the bank is the top priority, Greece is paying a chunky premium to ensure success. The huge demand for the bonds bodes well for the fiscally-challenged nation as it suggests Greece will be able to secure the €5 billion it was aiming for, which should give it sufficient funds to repay debt maturing until the start of April (briefing).
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TZA , stop 9,7
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suure capi karu vist ka juurde võtma, BGZ
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USGS reports 5.4 magnitude quake near southern Sumatra, Indonesia region
Ma vahest siia välja toonud mõned teated maavärinatest ja neid ikka jagub viimasel ajal pea igasse päeva. -
ECB's Weber says interest rates are appropriate - Reuters
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Kas see on tõsi, et Yahoo Finances näeb aktsiahindasid reaalajas või ainult ajutiselt?
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Yahoo on real time quote all BATS viimase tehingu hinda reaalajas kuvanud juba ligi aasta.
Tegemist ainult BATS hindadega, seega reaalne turuhind võib olla juba ammu teisel tasemel. -
Otselink on siin
http://www.batstrading.com/market_data/ -
AlariÜ
Seda ma vaatan jah, aga kas peab kuhugi registreerima?
See ei ole ju normaalne, et midagi saab tasuta. -
Kas Google Finance reaalajas hinnad on ka mingid "mittepäris" ?
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huvitav artikkel:
http://money.cnn.com/2010/01/25/news/economy/assets_bubbles.fortune/index.htm -
Mirski,
seda ma imestan, et tunsuvad olevat päris. -
Ei, otseselt kuskile registreerima küll ei pea. Eks tasuta asju leiab ju meie ühiskonnast küll ja küll - tasuta asjade puhul on lihtsalt küsimus kvaliteedis ja nii ka nende real-time hindadega, mis ei pruugi päris sendi pealt siiski õiget hinda kajastada. Aga enam-vähem täpse numbri kannab reeglina siiski välja.
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Senator John McCain plans to vote against Bernanke nomination, according to congressional aide - Reuters
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Palin FED-i juhiks!!!
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White House defends Bernanke, expects Senate confirmation - DJ
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American Intl (AIG): S&P lowers International Lease Finance Corp. ratings; on watch negative
Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today lowered its ratings on ILFC, including lowering the corporate credit rating to 'BBB-' from 'BBB+', and lowered the ratings on its unsecured debt to 'BB+' from 'BBB+'. The ratings remain on CreditWatch with negative implications. -
Rochdale analyst Dick Bove, on CNBC, says says if the bank tax and the Volcker rule come into affect it will cause a market crash
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Amgen prelim $1.05 vs $1.13 First Call consensus; revs $3.8 bln vs $3.85 bln First Call consensus
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Apple lööb ootusi tugevalt:
Apple out in 10-Q -- prelim $3.67 vs $2.07 First Call consensus; revs $15.68 bln vs $12.06 bln First Call consensus
Ja ka prognoosid tugevalt üle ootuste:
Apple sees Q2 $2.06-2.18 vs $1.77 First Call consensus; sees revs $11.0-11.4 bln, consensus $10.37 bln -
accounting change
vt. 10-K amendment
iPhone miss on halb -
Texas Instrumentsi tulemused ja prognoosid oodatust paremad:
Texas Instruments prelim $0.52 vs $0.49 First Call consensus; revs $3.01 bln vs $2.98 bln First Call consensus
Texas Instruments sees Q1 $0.44-0.52 vs $0.43 First Call consensus; sees revs $2.95-3.19 bln vs $2.83 bln First Call consensus -
Aga
"The new products we are planning to release this year are very strong, starting this week with a major new product that we're really excited about."
