Börsipäev 1. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Vaatamata USA oodatust paremale majanduskasvule neljandas kvartalis, peegeldas reedel miinuses lõpetanud turg investorite suurenenud skepsist majandusliku taastumise tugevuses, kui lõppeb varude tsüklilisusest, valitsuse stiimulitest ja keskpanga madalast intressimäärast tingitud mõju.
Dollar jätkas läinud nädala lõpus euro suhtes tugevnemist, püsides hetkel 1.388 tasemel – täna avaldatav ISM indeks (17.00) võib ootusi ületades pakkuda dollarile jõudu edasi tugevnemiseks. Oluliseks sentimenti kujundajaks on kahtlemata arengud ka Kreeka osas, kellele Euroopa Komisjon peaks kolmapäeval edastama oma soovitused finantsseisu stabiliseerimiseks. Plaani esialgse versiooni kohaselt langeb rõhk avaliku sektori palkakulude kärpimisele ja maksutulude kogumise tõhustamisele.
Ühtlasi on käesolev nädal tulemuste hooaja kõrgpunktiks, kui lõppenud kvartali numbreid raporteerib 2 Dow ja 94 S&P 500 ettevõtet, teiste seas Cisco, UPS, Exxon, Time Warner ja Pfizer.
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Tulude kasv neljandas kvartalis pärast 220 firma aruannet on 206%. Kui võtame finantssektori maha, siis 15%. Siit ilmselt ka investorite skepsis.
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Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 avaldatakse täna ameeriklaste detsembrikuu sissetulekute muutus (ootus +0.3%) ning kulutuste muutus (ootus +0.3%). Mida suuremad on kulutused, seda suuremad peaksid olema ettevõtete müügitulu ja kasuminumbrid, seega turule meeldib eelkõige võimalikult suur kulutuste kasvunumber.
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Exxon Mobililt (XOM) ilusad 4Q numbrid:
Reports Q4 (Dec) earnings of $1.27 per share, $0.08 better than the First Call consensus of $1.19; revenues rose 6.1% year/year to $89.84 bln vs the $86.19 bln consensus. "Upstream earnings were $5,780 million, up $146 million from the fourth quarter of 2008. Higher crude oil realizations increased earnings $1.8 billion while lower gas realizations reduced earnings by $1.2 billion. Lower gains from asset sales decreased earnings by $600 million. On an oil-equivalent basis, production increased nearly 2% from the fourth quarter of 2008. Excluding the impacts of entitlement volumes, OPEC quota effects and divestments, production was up over 3%."
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UBS ja JPM arvavad, et hetkel tegu lühiajalise korrektsiooniga ja soovitavad langust ostmiseks kasutada - link siin.
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December Personal Income +0.4% vs +0.3% consensus, prior revised to +0.5% from +0.4%
December Personal Spending +0.2% vs +0.3% consensus, prior revised to +0.7% from +0.5% -
Täna tasub USA valitsuse võlakirjad radaril hoida - Obama tutvustas nädalavahetusel uut eelarveplaani, mis näeb selle aastal ette rekordilist 1.6 triljoni dollari suurust eelarve puudujääki (10.6% SKPst). Kuigi eelarve puudujääki lubati edaspidi vähendada, peaks see järgneva kümne aasta jooksul ikkagi 0.7-1 triljoni dollari vahemikku jääma ja aastaks 2020 peaks riigi võlakoormus kahekordistuma $18.5 triljoni dollarini - link siin.
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Üks instrument, millega USA valitsuse võlakirjade langusele saab panustada on börsil kaubeldav fond UltraShort 7-10 Year Treasury ProShares (PST):
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Kes võlakirjade maailmas hästi ei orienteeru, siis neile selgituseks, et võlakirjade langus toob kaasa kõrgema tulususemäära. Mida madalam võlakirja hind ja kõrgem tulususmäär (yield), seda suuremaks hindavad investorid riski, et võlakirja väljakirjutaja võib oma kohustused välja lunastamata jätta. Üha suurenev USA võlakoormus on tegelikult juba pikka aega hoidnud õhus küsimust, et kas praeguste tulususemäärade juures leitakse ikka piisavalt defitsiitide kreeditore või mitte. Üha pingestuvad suhted Hiinaga (USA poolne relvastuse müük Taivanile) on vaid õli tulle valamas.
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USA alustab päeva korraliku ca 0.5%lise plussiga.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.26%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.03%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.42%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.12%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.84%
Venemaa MICEX -0.88%
Poola WIG -0.69%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.07%
Hongkongi Hang Seng +0.61%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.60%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.09%
Tai Set 50 +0.09%
India Sensex 30 -0.01% -
Kas PST-le kehtivad sarnased ohud nagu teistele UltraShortidele (matemaatika tõttu väheneb väärtus pikaajaliselt nullile)?
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Bears in Charge
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/1/2010 8:41 AM EST
It is on our failures that we base a new and different and better success.
-- Havelock Ellis
After two big down days on Jan. 21 and 22, the market struggled all last week to put together an oversold bounce and failed miserably. This action was a dramatic change in character from last year, when the dip-buyers would quickly jump in and drive us back to new highs every time we sold off.
As we kick off a new week, conditions aren't much different than they were last week except we are now even more oversold and ready for some sort of bounce. The bulls also have Monday-morning optimism working for them. Almost all of the gains last year occurred on Mondays, and most of those gains occurred in the gap up in the morning. Without the positive Mondays, this market would have looked much different last year.
Some sort of bounce -- especially on a Monday morning -- shouldn't be a big surprise, but the bigger question is what happens when we work off the oversold conditions. Last year we just went right back up as if nothing had happened. Does this market still have the juice to pull off a "V"-shaped rally, or are we more likely to see some failed bounce attempts and struggle to keep this market trending higher?
After the ugliness of the last seven or eight trading days, we have to give the bears some respect. As I went through the charts this weekend I was amazed at the carnage that has occurred. The major indices don't reflect how badly broken many individual stocks are. There has been no hiding place, and there is no leadership other than a few regional banks.
The stronger dollar has undercut the leadership of the natural resource and commodity sectors. Gold, oil, steel, coal, agriculture and bulk shipping have all collapsed. Unfortunately, no other groups have stepped up to replace these sectors. Technology stocks have acted very poorly after posting good earnings, and the big-cap technology names such as Apple (AAPL) , Google (GOOG) , Priceline (PCLN) have been leading to the downside.
At this point we really have to be looking for a bounce to fail. That doesn't mean we can't see a pretty good upside move, but conditions have changed and this market is acting much differently than it has previously. The action last year was unusual and we shouldn't count on it to continue.
At this point my game plan is to look for an oversold bounce but to treat it as a selling and/or shorting opportunity. If the bulls do manage to put together another "V"-shaped recovery and generate some good momentum to the upside I'll adjust my thinking, but I don't think it is going to be nearly as easy this time.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SMOD +11.8%, CRNT +2.6% (light volume), XOM +1.8%... Select financials showing strength: RBS +3.8%, DB +3.7%, ING +3.2%, BCS +2.9%, IBN +2.8%, STD +2.3%, C +1.2% (Citi plans sale of private equity unit: Report - Reuters), MS +1.1%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +3.0%, GFI +2.3%, RTP +2.2%, VALE +1.4%... Select oil/gas names showing strength: WFT +2.0%, E +1.2%, RDS.A +1.1%, TOT +1.0%, CVX +0.9%... Select auto related names rebounding: TTM +3.9%, F +2.1%, DAI +1.2%... Other news: VCI +12.3% (Valassis and News America agree to settle all outstanding lawsuits ), NSTC +8.7% (won a public tender to provide online land registry services to the Geodesy, Cartography and Cadastre Authority of the Slovak Republic), CZZ +8.3% (Cosan, Shell in $12 billion ethanol deal - Reuters.com ), ARTG +5.4% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), RYAAY +4.7% (Upbeat Ryanair says industry slump not ended yet - Reuters.com), ERIC +4.1% (still checking), IPI +4.1% (will replace Urban Outfitters in the S&P MidCap 400 index), URBN +1.8% (will replace Affiliated Computer Services in the S&P 500 index)... Analyst comments: AVT +2.5% (upgraded to Buy at Brean Murray), AKAM +2.4% ( upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest), BIDU +1.5% (upgraded to Neutral at Credit Suisse).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SOHU -7.5% , CHMP -6.0% (light volume), ARTG -4.0% (also filed for a 25 mln share common stock offering), HUM -2.6%, GCI -1.6%... Other news: EBR -25.6% (trading ex dividend), CBEH -2.5% (filed for a $125 mln mixed shelf offering), AMZN -1.5% (E-book pricing put into turmoil - WSJ)... Analyst comments: ID -3.2% (downgraded to Underweight at JPMorgan), MIR -2.6% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), LZ -2.3% (downgraded to Sell at Citigroup), M -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche). -
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võimendusega instrumentidel selline tootlusele pikaajaliselt negatiivset mõju avaldav efekt paraku on jah. -
Tööstustoodangu ISM on üks esimesi indikaatoreid, mis annab märku pöördepunktist majandustsüklis. Jaanuarikuu ISM on 50 punktist märgatavalt kõrgem, mis näitab, et tööstustoodang jätkab võimsalt kasvamist:
January ISM Manufacturing 58.4 vs 55.5 consensus
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Ehitussektoris on olukord jätkuvalt nõrk:
December Construction Spending -1.2% vs -0.5% consensus, prior revised to -1.2% from -0.6%
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Erko Rebane Re: Börsipäev 29. jaanuar 29/01/10 16:55
January University of Michigan- final 74.4 vs 73.0 consensus, prelim 72.8
Mikk Taras Re: Börsipäev 1. veebruar 01/02/10 17:05
January ISM Manufacturing 58.4 vs 55.5 consensus
mingil perioodil oli Michigan väga hea indikaator ISM ennustamisel
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finance.yahoo.com näitas vahepeal tükk aega Nasdaq -1.99%.
finance.yahoo puhul on tegemist ideeliselt kõige parema laiatarbe-tööriistaga, kuid teostus ja andmete täpsus nullib head ideed ära.
finance.google.com on robustsem, kuid esitatavad andmed on palju usaldusväärsemad.
Niipalju siis rahva-investori esma-tööriistadest :) -
White House Economic Adviser Romer says strong GDP forecasts included in budget based on history of growth after recessions - Reuters
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kas AMZN kohta mingi uudis, ma ei suuda leida
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kas üles või alla, kumba sa ei leia?
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U.S. House Appropriations Chairman Obey says panel will not exceed Obama FY11 spending request - Reuters
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120-le veebruari call siit AMZN
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Amazoni allapoole liikumise algatajaks siis täna Wall Street Journalis ilmiunud artikkel. Väike lause ka Briefingust:
Online retail giant Amazon (AMZN -4.6%) is under considerable pressure after the Wall Street Journal reported that the co conceded defeat Sunday evening after halting sales of all books published by Macmillan... -
nu see teema lahendati ära , AMZN
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After a weekend of brinksmanship, Amazon.com on Sunday surrendered to a publisher and agreed to raise prices on some electronic books (rohkem infot siit). Ilmselt aktsia piisavalt kukkunud ja siit natuke tuge saamas.
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lahendati, aga kõrgemate hindadega.
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AMZN-Macmillan on siiski juba eilne.
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IMF's Blanchard says central banks should leave rates very low, report says - DJ
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NY Attorney General to discuss banking fees in 2 PM EST call - DJ
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HUD's Donovan says Obama administration statement on future of GSEs coming very shortly - Reuters
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Conolog (CLNG) received advance orders for its PDR systems and other communication equipment valued at over $1,900,000, reedel sulguti $2.11 tasemel.
Aktsia täna päris raju sõidu korraldanud, tipuks tehti $4.72. Hetkel kauplemas 104% tõusus $4.30 tasemel. -
Fed survey says banks report little change in C&I loan standards in 4Q - DJ
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Amazon.com: Sell-off on new digital pricing is an overreaction - Kaufman
AMZN aktsia Kaufmani kommentaaride peale ülespoole liikumas. -
isegisamamõtlesin, AMZN
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Seda on täna teinud juba GS, JPM, UBS, BAC, Piper, lisaks mingi nõme upgrade ning siia jõuab alles Kaufman?
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To:ymeramees
Sisu siin, üsna asjalik lähenemine:
Kaufman notes that while the new pricing model if it becomes an industry standard would remove some scale advantage from Amazon, the firm believes the 8% decline in AMZN shares is an overreaction as: the pricing change would likely help profits even with share losses, the firm continues to believe eBooks will be a niche product vs. mass market product and Amazon is biggest share gainer for physical book sales. The firm also believes that Amazon is likely losing money on each digital bestseller at $9.99 whereas they would make 30% of $12.99-$14.99 under the new pricing model. Likely, there would be some share losses, but the firm doesn't believe the share loss would be greater than the improved profitability. -
Terve päev tedende ja nüüd see oli eriti mõistlik? Kuhu see reaktsioon siis jäi?
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Kaufmani defendi peale +2 punkti hinnas?
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whaaat?
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AMZN-ga seoses, kes ei ole lugenud veel
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/In-Amazon-vs-Macmillan-Amazon-paidcontent-3683130300.html?x=0&.v=1 -
Barnes & Noble (BKS): Ronald Burkle's Yucaipa Companies discloses 18.7% stake in filing, seeks to hold up to 37%
Aktsia kaupleb jäerelturul veel 2.5 punkti kõrgemal, $20.50 tasemel. -
Hea päev USA turul, kaevandused tõusid kõvasti, PAL + 19%, NAK + 8%, TGB + 9%, teised kaevandused ka tõusul ...
