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Börsipäev 12. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tähelepanu Euroopas on täna suunatud eurotsooni neljanda kvartali SKT avaldamisele kell 12.00. Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikud ootavad 0.3%-list kasvu võrreldes kolmanda kvartaliga. Hommiku poole avaldasid oma numbrid Saksamaa ja Prantsusmaa. Viimase SKT paranes neljandas kvartalis oodatud 0.5% asemel 0.6%, kuid Saksmaa sisemajanduse kogutoodang, mis moodustab veerandi eurotsooni majandusest, jäi võrreldes kolmanda kvartaliga püsima samale tasemele. Bloombergi küsitletud analüütikud olid oodanud 0.2%-list kasvu. Euro on võtnud suuna rünnata Saksa kesiste numbrite peale eilset põhja, kaubeldes hetkel 1.361 tasemel.

  • Naiste riietemüügile keskendunud Bebe Stores (BEBE) tulemused olid läinud kvartalil oodatust paremad ning seetõttu liikus tulemustejärgselt ka aktsia veebruari alguses vilkalt ülespoole. Tänaseks pole ostuhuvi ettevõtte aktsias kadunud. Tulemuste teatamise järel sai ettevõte ka mitu olulist soovituse ja hinnasihi kergitamist, mis jäid tollal siia foorumisse panemata. Näiteks Roth Capital tõstis oma hinnasihi $6.30 pealt $10 peale.

  • Joel, saad sa öelda, kust on pärit sinu suurimate liikujate tabel, mida sa iga päev siia üles paned. Kas selle info eest peaks maksma, kui ma tahaks seda saada hiljemalt pool tundi enne börsipäeva algust?
  • Eurotsooni SKT QoQ +0.1% vs oodatud 0.3%. Näib, et turgudele jõudis info pisut varem, tuues eur/usd kursi ja Euroopa olulisemad indeksid järsult allapoole enne numbrite avaldamise hetke. DAX-i 1.3%-lisest plussist on preagu järgi +0.2% ja EUR/USD liigub 1.356 tasemel
  • Gregg Greenberg-i blogist üks hea lõik:
    Will somebody please explain to us why Wall Street keeps recycling the same old tired -- and tainted -- executives? Can't these bailed-out, over-bonused boneheads find some new blood once in a while?
  • Nasdaq. Pre/aftermarket:
    http://dynamic.nasdaq.com/dynamic/premarketma.stm
  • Saksa majanduse ja Eurotsooni madal kasv on hea uudis Eesti kinnisvarahindadele :)

    Madal kasv -> ECB ei tõsta intressimäära -> Euribor madal -> odav laen -> suurem laenusumma sama kuumakse eest.
  • EURi suhtes pessimism juba väga kõrgele tõusnud (hea vundament euro ralliks ühel hetkel). Siin üks tabel 02.02.2010 seisuga:

    Allikas: BofA Merrill Lynch

  • Allolev Societe Generale graafik illustreerib hästi, miks Euroopa finantsstabiilsuse kaitsmisel ei piisa vaid Kreeka probleemidele keskendumisest vaid kriitilist tähelepanu vajavad ka Hispaania, Iiri ja Portugal. Vahest sellepärast jäi EU liidrite eilne avaldus võrdlemisi ähmaseks, kuna Kreeka-spetsiifilise lahenduse korral keskendunuks turg kohe järgmiste potentsiaalselt oluliselt suuremate kahjutekitajate päästmise vajadusele?

    Bank for International Settlements andmete kohaselt on Saksa ja Prantsuse kombineeritud exposure Kreekas 119 miljardit ja mainitud neljas riigis 909 miljardit dollarit. Üldse ulatuvad Euroopa pankade varad Kreekas 253 miljardi ja PIGS riikides 2.1 triljoni dollarini. 

  • Crude Oil 74.03 -1.25 -1.66%
    Natural Gas 5.36 -0.04 -0.74%
    Gold 1082.30 -12.40 -1.13%
    Dow 10044.00 -66.00 -0.65%
    S&P 500 1068.50 -8.10 -0.75%
    Nasdaq 100 1764.50 -11.00 -0.62%

    pilt hakkab päris uglyks minema jälle
  • Lisaks euroala probleemidele teeb turu murelikuks Hiina Keskpank, kes otsustas teist korda viimase kuu jooksul kommertspankadele kehtestatud kohustuslikku reservimäära tõsta. Hiina poliitikud on selgelt asunud laenubuumi lõpetama, mis annab tagasilöögi riigi majanduskasvule (ja toorainete nõudlusele).  Kirjutasin sellel nädalal Hiina laenubuumi lõppemisest pikemalt siin.

     

  • klmike,

    Eelturu aktiivsemalt kaubeldud, kõige enam tõusnud või langenud aktsiate leidmiseks sobib stockeri poolt pandud link väga hästi (link). 

    Samuti võiks vaadata Briefing Investori alt tasuta kalendrit, mida iga päev uuendatakse analüüsimajade poolt tehtavate soovituste muudatuste/hinnasihtide tõstmisega jne - link siin. 

    Gapping up/Gapping down veerg, mis siia foorumisse jõuab, on pärit tasulisest Briefing In Play veerust, kus siis põhimõtteliselt need kaks asja üritatakse kokku viia.

  • Topd, huvi pärast küsin, mida dollar teeb?
  • FTs pikk intervjuu Paul Volckeriga - vt. siit. Tegu mehega, kes on suuresti Obama pangandussektori reformide taga.
  • USA tarbijad jätkavad ka pärast jõule ostmist:

    January Retail Sales +0.5% vs +0.3% consensus, prior revised to -0.1% from -0.3%

    January Retail Sales ex autos +0.6% vs +0.5% consensus, prior -0.2%

  • USA alustab päeva punaselt. Tähtsamate indeksite futuurid ca -1.1%.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.11%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.19%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.16%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.01% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 -1.15%
    Venemaa MICEX -1.28%
    Poola WIG +1.44%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.29%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng -0.11%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.09%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.03%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.18%
    Tai Set 50 +0.36%
    India Sensex 30 N/A (börs suletud)

  • The Market Gives You Directions
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/12/2010 8:41 AM EST

    "I believe in the dollar. Everything I earn, I spend."

    -- Joan Crawford

    Strength in the dollar and tightening by China's central bank are pressuring the market this morning. China has been making moves to cool off its economy for a while now but another increase in bank reserve requirements still caught a few folks by surprise. The news came after the Asian markets closed, so there was no impact there, but it is hitting European and American markets this morning.

    The other news that is driving the dollar up is a continuation of the struggle by the euro zone to deal with the Greece problem and news that Europe's GDP contracted 4% over full year 2009. People are coming to realize that the European economy is even a bigger mess than what we face in the U.S., and that is making the dollar a safer harbor once again.

    Last year the weak dollar was a tailwind that drove up gold, oil, steel, coal, basic materials, agriculture, bulk shipping and a host of other sectors levered to commodities Now the dollar is a headwind and is the main driving force behind the recent change in the market trend. If you watch what the dollar is doing, then you will know what is happening to the major indices.

    My posture lately has been that the market is in a downtrend and while we will see some oversold bounces along the way, we have to assume that they will fail and that we will have more downside. The action this morning is exactly what tends to happen when the market is in a downtrend. We were strong enough to bounce for a couple days, which attracted some optimistic bulls, but now they wake up to an ugly surprise. As they try to unwind recent buys, they end up being fuel for further downside momentum.

    In downtrends there always are crowds of market pundits and traders trying to call the bottom. They are so intent on it that they constantly are jumping in too early and then are caught by surprise when a bounce fizzles out.

    Most market players would be far better off if they avoided the whole game of trying to call major market turns and simply traded with the overall trend. Yes, you will be caught out of position when a big turn does come, but most people would make far more money if they simply stick with a trend instead of constantly fighting it.

    There are market players such as Doug Kass that do well by consistently going counter to the market trend, but this requires a very high level of discipline, quick repositioning when wrong and the ability to endure a high level of pain while waiting for a trend to turn. It can work well, especially if the timing is fairly precise, but it is tough approach for the average individual investor who is not as vigilant or as tuned in to the market action.

    My advice is to determine which way the market is trending and then stick to it until there is a clear change in the market direction. There will be bumps along the way, but you'll generally find that, if you aren't fighting market direction, it is a lot easier to make money.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: QDEL +6.9%, A +4.7%... M&A News: SKIL +10.4% (to be acquired for $10.80 per share by investor group)... Other news: SWM +10.4% (co clarified its contract with Philip Morris), CRIS +6.9% (achieves $8 mln milestone under Hsp90 collaboration with Debiopharm), ACLI +3.9% (continued post-earnings momentum), MOT +1.9% (targets first quarter 2011 to separate into two publicly traded companies)... Analyst comments: SOL +1.6% (upgraded to Overweight at Piper Jaffray).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to weak earnings/guidance: HTGC -18.4% (also announced renewed & increased buyback), CML -17.4%, NILE -13.4%, EHTH -13.4%, BWLD -12.4%, CSTR -7.6%, IR -7.5%... European financials trading lower following weak GDP data and continued Greece concerns: NBG -5.5%, LYG -5.5%, IRE -4.6%, ING -3.7%, BCS -3.6%, DB -3.6%... Precious metals stocks lower on weaker spot prices due to stronger dollar: AU -3.4%, GOLD -2.7%, AUY -1.9%, GDX -1.8%, SLV -1.7%, NEM -1.6%, GFI -1.4%, GLD -0.7%... Other news: INMD -10.8% (prices 2.5 mln share common stock offering at $7.50), SNMX -10.1% (announces proposed public offering of $20 mln of common stock), SSRI -5.2% (announces public offering of common shares to raise $100 mln).
  • Esmaspäeval on USA turud suletud ning tähistataks Presidentide päeva. Kas 3-päevase pika nädalavahetuse eel müüakse aktsiaid hirmus, et 3 päeva jooksul võib Kreeka/Hispaania/Portugali/Iiri osas mingeid negatiivseid arenguid ette tulla?
  • Täna kauplemispäeva lõpuks ka indeksite tasakaalustamine, nii et tõotab tulla väga huvitav päev!
  • February University of Michigan Sentiment- prelim 73.7 vs 75.0 consensus, January 74.4
  • December Business Inventories -0.2% vs +0.2% consensus, prior revised to +0.5% from +0.4%
  • Natural Gas Data
    Natural gas inventory showed a draw of 191 bcf, analysts were expecting a draw of 185 bcf, with ests ranging from a draw of 210 bcf to a draw of 160 bcf.
  • Tere,
    Palun abi oma bakalaureuse töö kirjutamisel . Järgneval lingil on küsimustik ning pikem selgitus.
    Tänan :)

    http://spreadsheets.google.com/viewform?formkey=dGJzZ1hadW9yVVVwZkhNLWhrWHRoenc6MA
  • FII has disclosed an 18 percent stake in DYAX(14,04 million shares).
  • Intrepid Potash (IPI): Morgan Stanley discloses 7.0% stake in 13G filing
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  • U.S. Senator Corker says early to mid-march financial reform bill drafting session being targeted by Senator Dodd - Reuters
  • InterOil (IOC): Goldman Sachs discloses 7.2% stake in 13G filing

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