Börsipäev 19. veebruar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Esiteks tänan kõiki, kes eile mu seminaril käisid. Kuulajate seast tuli ka palju häid ja huvitavaid küsimusi.
Kui nüüd tänast makrokava vaadata, siis kell 15.30 teatatakse jaanuarikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus, millelt oodatakse ca 0.3%list kasvu ning tuumikosalt oodatake ca 0.1%list kasvu. Oodatust suuremad numbrid mõjuksid turule negatiivselt, kuna see tähendaks, et võib-olla on Föderaalreserv sunnitud üha tõsisemalt mõtlema inflatsiooniga võitlemisele.
Eilse õhtu suurim üllatus aga tuligi just Föderaalreservilt, kes tõstis üllatuslikult discount rate'i ehk määra, millega keskpangast kommertspankadele raha laenatakse, 0.50% pealt 0.75% peale. Samas, discount rate'i ja ametliku intressimäära vahe ongi reeglina olnud ca 1.0% ning praeguse tõstmise järel on see ca 0.6%.... seega on ruumi seda veel ülespoole liigutada, enne kui ametlike fed fund rate'ide kallale minema hakata. -
Turul on selline määrade kergitamine igaljuhul ajutiselt jalad nõrgaks löönud. S&P500 indeksi futuur -1.1% ning euro dollari vastu -1.05%. Miks tõsta nüüd? Otsest vastust ei ole, aga mõned võimalikud mõtted minu poolt:
1) Eile andis USA president Obama pressikonverentsi, kus ta lubas, et aastaks 2015 on kõik USA eelarve kulutused kaetud tuludega. Ehk eelarve defitsiit jõuab 0%ni SKPst. Ehk oli vaja seda avaldust tõsisemaks muuta?
2) Kreeka ja euro-ala probleemid on veel väga värsked - praegune kergitamine võib tähendada seda, et fookus püsib jätkuvalt euro fundamentaalsetel probleemidel ning mitte dollariga seotud probleemidel, kuna 'dollaris liigutatakse intresse juba ju kõrgemale'.
3) Ehk teab Föderaalreserv, et inflatsioon on viimasel ajal kiirenenud?
4) Midagi muud...
On kellelgi veel mõtteid? -
Äkki majandus kasvab oodatust paremini?
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dw%* ja ff%* spreadi on sellelt graafikult keeruline kiirelt tabada, kuid põhimõte on selge.
Kui turuolukord on normaalne, siis dw% > ff%. Krediidikriisi meetmena on ka dw% langetaud suhteliselt ff% määra lähedale. dw% tõstmine FEDi poolt vajalik samm normaalse spreadi poole.
* minu lühendid discount window ja fed funds rate lühendamiseks. -
Morgan Stanley ütleb, et discount rate'i tõstmine näitab paranenud krediidituru tingimusi ning et nemad oleksid ostmas panku, eriti kui nad peaksid veel allapoole tulema. Eraldi märgitakse ära Bank of America (BAC) ja JPMorgan Chase (JPM):
Morgan Stanley: "Stocks to Invest in: Banks with a more positive bias to rising rates include asset sensitive banks (BK, NTRS are standouts as they also cease MMF waivers), and improving credit (almost all, but in particular early cycle credit banks like BAC and JPM). We also like WFC and PNC on improving efficiencies post WB and NCC acquisitions." -
Euroopa suhtelise tugevuse taga võrreldes USA üllatusega on sellised numbrid:
The preliminary Markit euro-zone purchasing managers index came in at 53.7 in February, unchanged from January.
The PMI reading for the manufacturing sector showed an acceleration in output, rising from 52.4 in January to 54.1, its highest reading since August 2007 -
Kas STOXX 50 -1.06% võib lugeda suhteliseks tugevuseks?
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UK makro on viimasel ajal olnud üsna kesine. 2007 oli samuti UK esimene, kelle probleemid said laialdasema huvi osaliseks, kas need andmed võiksid indikeerida uute probleemide esile kerkimist?
British retail sales slumped sharply in January, falling by a steeper-than-expected 1.8% from December, the Office for National Statistics reported Friday.
Põhjenduseks tuuakse kehva ilma:
The weak showing was partly due to poor weather, which kept consumers at home, said Peter Dixon, U.K. economist at Commerzbank. -
To:kartell
Võrreldes USA indeksite eilseid sulgemistasemeid ja hetke Euroopa indeksite tasemeid siis peaks seda siiski suhteliselt tugevaks ehk siis näha on ostuhuvi euroopa aktsiates.
CAC püsimine 0 ümber USA futuuride 0.5-0.7 languse ja aasia ~2% languse najal on tugev näitaja. -
FARBPMDW:IND ja FARBWNDW:IND on vist need Bloombergi tickerid, mis selle discount window kasutamist iseloomustavad - ei jõua hetkel täpsemalt uuridamõju ei paista olevat nii suur kui esialgu arvati?
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How To Use the Fed's Discount Window: One can always try to jump out of it...
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January Core CPI M/M -0.1% vs +0.1% consensus, prior 0.1%
January CPI Y/Y +2.6% vs +2.8% consensus, prior revised +2.7%
January Core CPI Y/Y +1.6% vs +1.8% consensus, prior 1.8%
January CPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.3% consensus, prior 0.1% -
CPI igaljuhul oodatust väiksem... see ehk vähendab ka hirmu selle ees, et Fed võiks ka fund rate'e oodatust varem tõstma hakata.
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S&P raises Turkey long-term rating to 'BB'; outlook positive
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USA suuremad on vähemasti eelturu miinusest mõnevõrra välja roninud ning 1%lisest langusest on praegu järel vaid ca 0.2% kuni 0.4% miinust. Euroopa on üldse plussi suutnud tõusta.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.25%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.17%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.13%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.59%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.41%
Venemaa MICEX +0.45%
Poola WIG +0.50%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -2.05%
Hongkongi Hang Seng -2.59%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A (börs suletud)
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.74%
Tai Set 50 +0.83%
India Sensex 30 -0.83% -
Tough Upside After the Fed's Move
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/19/2010 8:28 AM EST
Always be nice to bankers. Always be nice to pension fund managers. Always be nice to the media. In that order.
-- John Gotti
The Federal Reserve surprised the market after the close on Thursday by raising the discount borrowing rate. This is the rate charged on loans that the Fed makes to commercial banks and is generally considered less important than the federal funds rate, which is the rate at which banks lend to each other.
This is the first time the Fed has moved to raise any interest rate since our financial crisis began. Many market players are ready to dismiss this move as already well anticipated and as an isolated event. The Fed has made it quite clear that it would do something sooner or later, but the market is obviously a bit surprised that it is earlier.
So now what? Higher interest rates are almost always a market negative. That is why the old saying "Don't fight the Fed" is generally good advice. Last year the Fed slashed rates and that provided a terrific tailwind for the market as we were awash in cheap money. It is that liquidity that was more responsible for the strong market action than anything else. That cheap cash had to go somewhere, and the only real choice was the stock market.
Any increase in rates is going to dry up liquidity to some degree and provide a headwind. The Fed usually acts incrementally, so the big question is whether the market is going to start anticipating further rate hikes even though the Fed is trying to reassure us that more tightening is not assured. In fact Fed member Lockhart of Atlanta is on the wires this morning saying that this isn't a tightening at all and that rates will remain low for some time due to the fragile economic environment.
I've discussed how market news like this is usually not inherently bad or good. The reaction to it depends to a great degree on the market environment. We often see the market rally on what looks like bad news and vice versa. The way news is perceived and reacted to depends primarily on sentiment and technical conditions.
Unfortunately the technical pattern of the market right now increases the chances that this interest rate news will be perceived as negative. As I've been discussing lately, we have rallied in "V"-shaped fashion to key overhead resistance levels. Even without any news we were facing some difficulty in managing more upside because we are extended and at resistance. This news from the Fed makes it much easier for a pullback to take place since we already had good conditions for one. The Fed just provides an easy and convenient excuse to justify the selling that many were inclined to do anyway.
The more difficult question is whether this news will have a more sustained impact. We are obviously already weak this morning, but will we gain some momentum to the downside over the next week? We recently saw China suffer a big hit when it increased interest rates, but the market there was even more extended than ours and very ripe for a correction.
If we had a different technical setup I'd be much more likely to dismiss the Fed move as just a hiccup, but it's quite a coincidence that this news comes when the S&P 500 is almost exactly at key resistance at the 50-day simple moving average. If we are going to roll over, this is exactly the place where you would expect it to happen.
The resilience of the market over the last few days has been quite surprising, so I don't want to be too quick to dismiss the bulls. They have shown that they still have some of the juice that kept this market running last year. If we come back quickly from this news, the bears are going to be scrambling once again to reposition.
We'll see how we act after we open, but even if you are inclined to think the Fed news is not important, we can't forget that the technical conditions are not very supportive of more upside in the near term.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FSYS +9.0%, INTU +6.4%, SHPGY +5.8%, JCP +4.8%, SAPE +4.5%, HITT +4.3%, ACOM +3.5%, BAM +3.4%, HUN +3.3%, ECLP +3.1% (light volume), ARUN +2.7%, XXIA +1.7% (light volume), RRGB +1.6%, UAM +1.2%, WBMD +0.8% (Citigroup upgrades to Buy from Hold) ... M&A news: PIII +49.8% (PECO II to be acquired by Lineage Power Holdings for $5.86 per share in cash), SII +15.2% (Schlumberger in talks to buy Smith International - WSJ)... Other news: MDZ +14.8% (intends to make a Substantial Issuer Bid), GNVC +7.3% (announces $3.8 mln contract with the Department of Homeland Security), JAZZ +4.5% (announces FDA acceptance of NDA for JZP-6 for the treatment of Fibromyalgia)... Analyst comments: CRIS +14.2% (light volume; Chugai to develop GDC-0449 in Japan increases potential royalty stream to Curis - Rodman and Renshaw), LIZ +3.0% (upgraded to Buy at Keybanc), SCHW +2.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman), ESV +1.3% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), RIG +0.8% (upgraded to Overweight at Morgan Stanley), ADS +0.6% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NANO -14.6%, APOL -12.5%, CSIQ -10.0%, LOPE -7.8%, UEIC -7.5%, FSLR -6.7% (also Merriman downgrades to Neutral from Buy, ThinkEquity downgrades to Hold from Buy), MMSI -6.5% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), NLST -6.4%, RCRC -6.0%, CBS -5.2%, DELL -5.1%, AUTH -4.5%, CPKI -4.4%, MORN -3.9% (light volume), HME -2.4% (also RBC Capital downgrades to Sector Perform from Outperform), IM -1.5% (light volume), WOOF -1.1%, MXWL -0.8% ... M&A news: SLB -3.7% (Schlumberger in talks to buy Smith International - WSJ), AGU -0.7% (Agrium extends exchange offer for CF Industries to March 22, 2010)... Select financial names trading lower: CIT -4.8%, LYG -3.1%, ING -2.9%, CS -2.2%, HBC -2.1%, RF -1.9%, STD -1.8%, FITB -1.8%, C -1.7%, BCS -1.3%, BAC -1.0% (U.S. Treasury announces intent to sell warrant positions in public Dutch auctions; says to conduct auctions to sell warrant positions in Bank of America, Washington Federal - Reuters), MS -1.0%, GS -0.5%... Select metals/mining names under pressure with strength in the dollar: VGZ -6.3% (announces dismissal of change of forest land use permit application for the Paredones Amarillos Gold project), GSS -4.1%, MT -3.5% (trading ex dividend), HL -3.2%, HMY -2.8%, GOLD -2.7%, RTP -2.7%, BBL -2.6%, AU -2.6%, SLW -2.5%, GDX -2.4%, NEM -2.0%, AEM -1.9%, AUY -1.9%, GG -1.9%, GLD -1.3%, GFI -1.2%, SLV -1.1%... Select oil/gas related names trading lower: BP -2.3%, E -2.1%, TOT -2.1%, STO -1.9%, REP -1.9%, RDS.A -1.1%... Select solar names trading lower following FSLR and CSIQ earnings/guidance: TSL -4.5%, JASO -4.7%, SOL -3.1%, STP -2.2%, SPWRA -1.9%, SOLF -1.8%, YGE -1.7%... Select China related names trading lower following weakness overseas (Hang Seng -2.6%): CEO -3.1%, CHL -2.6%, CHU -2.5%, LFC -2.0%... Other news: SLXP -19.3% (FDA release briefing documents for panel on SLXP's drug 2/23), CPST -15.3% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), UTHR -7.2% (withdraws European Marketing authorization application for Tyvaso for the treatment of pulmonary arterial hypertension), ES -6.2% (names Val John Christensen as President and Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately ), RPRX -2.4% (announces it has established an at-the-market program through which it may sell, from time to time, shares of its common stock having an aggregate offering price of up to $10 mln), GSK -2.2% (GSK statement on FDA's proposed label revisions for some asthma medicines)... Analyst comments: ACN -3.4% (downgraded to Sell at Kaufman), BUD -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), APA -1.0% (removed from Focus List at Credit Suisse). -
Q4 Mortgage Delinquencies 9.47%, prior quarter 9.64%
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Research In Motion: Motorola bid to block RIMM imports to be investigated by U.S.- Bloomberg
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Turul ikka megatugev bid all, müük lausa puudulik ja täna käive ka üsna ok. Huvitav kaua nii minna jõutakse?
RUT on spurtinud 590 punkti pealt sirgelt 632 peale, seega kõva ostuhuvi ka small cap-ides. -
Nafta hind on $80 taset ründamas. Varsti peaks kõrgema kütusehinna mõju ka Eestis tundma, kuna koos barreli hinnatõusuga on samal ajal ka dollar tugevnenud.
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Täna siis optsioonireede ning seetõttu on näha ka sellist nn pinningut ümmarguste numbrite poole. SPY'l tundub selleks 111 olevat.
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Source says SEC to consider a curb that would kick in if stock fell by a certain percentage - Reuters
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US SEC to consider new short sale restrictions Wednesday, according to source - Reuters
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palun lisada BKCC kaubeldavatesse
