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Börsipäev 22. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • USAst täna mingeid olulisi makroraporteid tulemas ei ole. Eelturul veel suuri liikumisi pole olnud, kuid tähtsamate indeksite futuurid on siiski väikeses plussis - ca +0.2% kuni +0.3%. Nafta on +0.3% ja kerkinud $80.3 peale barrelist.
  • Marc Faber avas täna CLSA Japan Forumi, kus on kohal institutsionaalsed investorid 22. riigist ja ca 540 tegevjuhti Jaapanist. Muidu üsna negatiivse nägemusega Faber üllatas paljusid oma positiivsete kommentaaridega Jaapani aktsiaturgude kohta, mis on Faberi sõnul täiuslik contrarian play.
  • CLSA Japan Forum on tuntud ka oma lõpupidude poolest. Sellel aastal kohal Duran Duran :)
  • Täna on Bloombergis ilmunud intervjuu Marc Faberiga, kus ta ütleb, et ootab aasta kui terviku lõikes USA aktsiaturgudelt negatiivset tootlust, kuid ei välistaks, et enne seda tehakse kevadel uus tipp ja S&P500 käib ära pealpool 1150 punkti. Samas, suurt allapoole liikumise potentsiaali aktsiates Marc ei näe ning ütleb, et 0%lise rahaga maailmas ei olegi investoritel sellega midagi väga muud peale hakata, kui osta toormaterjale, aktsiaid või kinnisvara. Toormaterjalid tema kindlaks lemmikuks.

    Link intervjuule siin. 

  • Faber on viimasel ajal kuidagi väga meedialembene ja ei viitsi oma bloomgloomdoomkaboomkazoomroomdumdudiduum report'i kirjutada. Halb. See oli alati hea lugemine, kuigi kippus kohati minema väga sinna territooriumile, et "tambiks veidi vasak..." :-D
  • Kuna Faber on teemas, siis lisan ka ühe lingi. Jim Puplava intervjuu Marc Faberiga (enne intervjuud on saate sissejuhatus ja intervjuu Carl Swenliniga decisionpointist, alles siis tuleb Faber): Link mp3 failile
    Ülejäänud Financial Sense Newshour'i kraam on saadaval siin. Kusjuures eelmise nädala intervjuude kraami hulgas on ka intervjuu dividendiaktsiatesse investeerimise kohta. Algajatele (tean omast käest) on see päris asjalik sissejuhatus. Eelmise nädala intervjuude hulgas on lisaks kõigele muule ka intervjuu Kenneth Rogoffiga.
  • Global crisis leads I.M.F. experts to rethink long-held ideas - NY Times
    NY Times reports the IMF has long preached the virtues of keeping inflation low and allowing money to flow freely across international boundaries. But two recent research papers by economists at the fund have questioned the soundness of that advice, arguing that slightly higher inflation and restrictions on capital flows can sometimes help buffer countries from financial turmoil. One paper has received particular attention for suggesting that central banks should set their target inflation rate much higher — at 4 percent, rather than the 2 percent that is the most widely held standard... The other paper, released Friday, said that in the aftermath of the crisis, officials were "reconsidering the view that unfettered capital flows are a fundamentally benign phenomenon." "Concerns that foreign investors may be subject to herd behavior, and suffer from excessive optimism, have grown stronger; and even when flows are fundamentally sound, it is recognized that they may contribute to collateral damage, including bubbles and asset booms and busts," the fund's deputy director of research, Jonathan D. Ostry, wrote, along with five other authors.
  • USA indeksite futuurid on kauplemispäeva alguseks pisut veelgi kerkinud ning ca +0.35% kuni +0.50% tõusus. Nafta +0.5% @ $80.5 barrelist.
    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.04%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.15%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.27%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.74% 
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.29%
    Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
    Poola WIG +0.61%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.74%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng +2.43%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.49%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.04%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +1.56%
    Tai Set 50 +0.87%
    India Sensex 30 +0.28%

  • Faith Trumps Logic
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/22/2010 8:45 AM EST

    To one who has faith, no explanation is necessary. To one without faith, no explanation is possible.
    -- St. Thomas Aquinas

    Sometimes the best investing approach is to simply have faith. Market players are always looking for explanation on why things should move up or down, but quite often the market just has a mind of its own. It doesn't matter how insightful or compelling our logic might seem, the market will do as it pleases, and we're not going to make much money if we try to fight it.

    The market is currently undergoing another light-volume, "V"-shaped move straight back up. Despite lots of good technical reasons the market should struggle and roll back over, it just isn't happening. We are now into our 11th day of a bounce and we still haven't seen a technical follow-through day.

    A technical follow-through day is a concept created by William J. O'Neill, the founder of Investor's Business Daily. The idea is that after a market turn, we need a day of good gains on increased volume to confirm that bigger money is embrace the market reversal. While this market has gone straight up the last four days, we aren't doing it on higher volume or with any great energy, so the rules used by IBD still consider the market to be undergoing a correction.

    I can go on and on about how seasonality is negative, how we have overhead resistance and how recent economic reports have been negative, but it just doesn't matter right now. The bulls have faith in this market and they don't need explanations. Stocks are going up, and that is all that ultimately matters.

    Investors always need to have some sort of theory or framework to use to approach the market, but we have to be prepared to abandon it if it doesn't work. I tend to use a technical approach, and that doesn't work when we have this low-volume, "V"-ish action. It seems illogical to me that the market can rally so easily but the market doesn't care what I think. I just have to respect the fact that what is working best right now is to simply have faith that we will keep on running. Until there is some action to the contrary, we should look for the positive action to continue.

    On Friday the Fed pumped $946 billion into the financial system by buying U.S. agency debt. That more than offset the increase in discount rates that was announced Thursday night. Liquidity drove the market up last year, and it looks like that's the explanation again right now. When the Fed is pumping that much money into the system, nothing else matters much.

    We have another positive Monday open on the way. Seventeen of the last 21 Mondays have been positive; that day has been responsible for the majority of gains in this market. The dollar is a little weak -- another market positive -- and overseas market are positive as well.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GPRE +14.9%, ENDP +5.5%, LOW +1.6%... M&A news: SII +7.1% (Smith Int'l and Schlumberger announce merger agreement; SII shareholders to receive 0.6966 shares of SLB, a value of $45.84)... Select financial names showing strength: NBG +7.3% (Up to 25 billion euros in aid mulled for Greece, report says - Reuters.com), BCS +2.4%, ING +1.8%, CS +1.7%, RBS +1.6% (boss turns down bonus - Reuters.com), USB +1.6%, UBS +1.5%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: RTP +2.1%, IAG +1.9%, EGO +1.7%, AUY +1.5%, VALE +1.0% (light volume; Glencore seeks to buy back $2.5bn Prodeco mine - UK Times Online)... Select oil/gas related names showing strength: WFT +4.2% (up in sympathy with SII), PBR +2.0%, SU +1.8%, PTR +1.3%, HAL +1.1%... Other news: BPAX +4.4% (reports 'positive' LibiGel safety data in Phase III program), MASI +2.6% (declares $2.00 special cash dividend), WAG +1.7% (mentioned positively in Barron's)... Analyst comments: PACR +8.9% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T), SWKS +3.5% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), DNDN +2.6% (JP Morgan initiated DNDN with a Overweight and price target of $46), PNC +1.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Bernstein).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: VCI -5.8% (light volume)... M&A news: SLB -4.6% (Smith Int'l and Schlumberger announce merger agreement; SII shareholders to receive 0.6966 shares of SLB, a value of $45.84)... Other news: IRE -5.8% and AIB -2.3% (Irish "bad bank" transfers delayed until end March - UK Reuters), OC -2.8% (filed for a common stock shelf offering by a selling shareholder), GSK -2.3% (Reviewers urge Glaxo's Avandia come off market - Reuters), SA -1.4% (announces 2.5 mln common share offering)... Analyst comments: VSH -1.7% (downgraded to Mkt Weight at Weisel), STP -1.6% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), LDK -1.2% (downgraded to Underweight at Barclays), NETL -1.1% (downgraded to Hold at Brigantine based on valuation), TKC -1.0% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Goldman), YGE -0.9% (downgraded to Equal Weight at Barclays), GILD -0.8% (downgraded to Sell at Morgan Joseph).
  • Nädalavahetusel kirjutasid mitmed lehed, et Kreeka saab EL-lt suuri summasid. Täna teatas Euroopa Komisjon, et mingit sellist plaani pole olemas:

    The European Commission on Monday denied reports that a European Union plan was in the works to provide 20 billion to 25 billion euros ($27 billion to $33.8 billion) in aid to Greece as uncertainty lingers over how Athens' European partners plan to ensure the nation will meet its debt obligations. (marketwatch)

  • Market drops after Bloomberg reports that Obama proposes first Medicare tax on unearned income
  • Goldman Sachsi enda selgitust Kreeka swapide kohta saab lugeda siit (loomulikult midagi imelikku tehingutes ei nähta):

    These transactions reduced Greece’s foreign denominated debt in Euro terms by €2.367bn and, in turn, decreased Greece's debt as a percentage of GDP by just 1.6%, from 105.3% to 103.7%

  • Fed's Yellen says housing market could weaken after Fed ends mortgage-backed asset buying - Reuters
    Fed's Yellen says now is not the time to remove monetary stimulus - DJ
  • EUR/USD 1.36-st allapoole vajunud ja turul raskusi tõusu jätkamisega. Siit siis edasi huvitav vaadata, kas turul on jõudu 1130-50 vahemikku liikuda või võetakse suund allapoole:

     

  • Fitch reports that U.S. Credit Card issuers to absorb new regulations; ABS Rating changes unlikely
  • Täna turgudel käive jällegi väga lahja, peagi peaks kummalegi poole suurem liikumine tulema.
  • BIDU liikumine ikka väga võimas, aktsia kauplemas üle $505 taseme. Sellise hinnataseme juures on valuatsioonid ikka väga rasvased. Kui siit nüüd ringi pöörab, siis võib kasumivõtuga seal trügimiseks minna ja peaks päris pika liu saama.
  • 30-year TIPS Auction Results- Yield 2.229%; Bid/Cover 2.45x ; Indirect Bidders 42.4%
  • Fed's Yellen says sees "reasonable" agreement at FOMC on Fed's exit strategies - Reuters
  • Claymore Solar ETF : Germany amends aid for solar parks in draft bill; to cut aid fro solar parks by 15% not 25%-- Bloomberg
    Solarites päris muhedad spiked selle uudise peale:)
  • Macy's (M): Hearing added to Sell list at Deutsche Bank
  • US Senator Dodd says commercial real estate needs prompt action - DJ
  • Imax reports Avatar passes $200 mln milestone at IMAX theatres during the weekend of February 19
  • Treasury considers tweaks in Foreclosure-Prevention Program - WSJ
  • Täna peale turge olulisemad tulemused: APEI, BRCD, FST, HMA, MELI, JWN ja RSH
    Homme enne turge: ACOR, BKS, CRDN, SSP, HD, LIZ, M, MDT, ODP, RDN ja SHLD
  • Oih, keeegi on kergelt müüma tulnud ja indeksid päeva põhjade juurde pressinud.

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