Börsipäev 26. veebruar
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Täna on USAst tulemas hulganisti makroandmeid. Kell 15.30 teatatakse USA 4. kvartali korrigerritud SKP muutus, millelt oodatakse samaks jäämist ehk +5.7%; SKP deflaatorilt oodatakse +0.6%. Kell 16.45 teatatakse veebruarikuu Chicago PMI, kus konsensusootus on 59.7 punkti (jaanuaris oli näit kõrgem -> 61.5 punkti). Kell 16.55 tuleb Michigani Ülikooli veebruarikuu sentimendi indeks, kust oodatakse 73.9 punkti. Päeva makrole pannakse punkt kell 17.00, mil teatatakse jaanuarikuu olemasolevate eluasemete annualiseeritud müüginumbrid - ootus 5.5 miljonit.
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Hispaania ja Itaalia investorite isu koduriigi võla järgi ei küündi küll päris Jaapani tasemele, kuid allolev Credit Agricole'i graafik näitab, et tegu on siiski märkimisväärselt patriootilisema ühiskonnaga võrreldes Kreeka ja Portugaliga, mis on aidanud kaitsta võlakirju spekulantide eest ja vältida laenukulude kasvamist. Kui Hispaania 10a võlakirja tulusus on käesoleval aastal langenud 7 baaspunkti võrra siis ekvivalentsete Portugali ja Kreeka instrumentide yield on aasta viimase kahe kuuga tõusnud vastavalt 19 ja 85 baaspunkti.
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Suurbritannia kinnisvarahindade jätkusuutlik tõus eelmise aastal üllatas paljusid analüütikuid ning 0,4%-list QoQ kasvu oodati ka veebruaris. Nationwide uuringu kohaselt langes tegelikkuses aga hinnatase -1%, lõpetades 9 kuud kestnud tõusu. Aastaguse madala baasi tõttu kerkisid hinnad 9.2%. Negatiivseteks mõjuteguriteks loetakse maksukeskkonna muutust ja külma ilma.
There is evidence from a range of indicators that the market may have lost momentum in early 2010 as the stamp duty holiday ended and house hunters were obstructed by the icy weather. Even without the impact of stamp duty changes and the snowy weather, it would have been surprising to see house prices maintain the very strong upward momentum seen for most of 2009,“ said Martin Gahbauer, chief economist for the Nationwide
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WSJs kodulehel esilugu hedge-fondi juhtidest, kes üritavad euro langusele panustades "career trade'i" teha. Paljudele on eeskujuks G. Soros, kelle sõnul võib euro kokku kukkuda, kui ELi riigid oma finantse korda ei saa - loe pikemalt siit.
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Järelikult tuleb euros enne kokku kukkumist megaralli, naljavennad stopitakse välja - nagu alati! :-D
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AIG-lt korralik kahjum neljandas kvartalis & aktsia -10% allapoole vajunud:
American Intl in 10-K reports Q4 net loss of $8.9 bln, including multiple items, may not compare to the ($1.48) bln consensus
AIG Q4 loss from continuing operations $58.05
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Vähemalt võrreldes eelmise aastaga on AIG olukord paranenud:
AIG Q4 loss $65.51 a share vs. $458.99
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New Yorkis on käimas korralik lumemöll, mis peaks tänase ja homse päevaga kokku tooma linnatänavaile ca 30-40 sentimeetrilise lumevaiba, põhjapoolsetes eeslinnades võib tulla ka üle 60 cm lund. Bloombergis on sellest ka väike lugu tehtud - link siin.
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Morgan Stanley kommenteerib positiivselt Apple'i (AAPL) aktsiat & arvab, et 70-80% tõenäosusega liigub see lähikuudel ülespoole:
Morgan Stanley believes the share price will rise relative to the industry over the next 60 days. Apple has underperformed the broader market and the Nasdaq so far this year, due largely to a sell-off following the iPad announcement in January and a push out of expectations for a VZ iPhone. Firm sees two product related fundamental catalysts over the next 60 days:
- the iPad launch in late March which will exceed low investor expectations, in its view and
- growing investor anticipation of the next generation iPhone launch expected in June which will lower the total cost of ownership and introduce new innovative functionality. (briefing)
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USA 4Q SKP kasv oli esialgsest hinnangust natuke ikkagi suurem:
Q4 GDP +5.9% vs +5.7% consensus, prelim +5.7%
Ülejäänud makro:
Q4 GDP Price Index +0.4% vs +0.6% consensus, prelim +0.6%
Q4 Personal Consumption +1.7% vs +2.0% consensus, prelim +2.0%
Q4 Core PCE +1.6% vs +1.4% consensus, prelim +1.4%
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Tähtsamate USA indeksite futuurid hetkel eilsete sulgumistasemete juures.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.74%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.95%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.82%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.67%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.39%
Venemaa MICEX +1.02%
Poola WIG +1.17%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.24%
Hongkongi Hang Seng +1.03%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.28%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.03%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.48%
Tai Set 50 +0.66%
India Sensex 30 +1.08% -
Stay Nimble
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/26/2010 8:42 AM EST
A person of intellect without energy added to it, is a failure.
-- Sebastien-Roch Nicolas de Chamfort
The market did an excellent job of bouncing back from some bad news yesterday morning. We ended up with one of those classic late-day recoveries that tends to squeeze the bears and make the sellers wonder what they were so worried about.
Over the last 13 days of trading there has been a positive bias and some decent gains, but we aren't seeing the same sort of vigor and energy that steamrolled the market skeptics so often last year. Technical resistance around 1109 of the S&P 500 actually seems to matter, whereas last year technical overhead was mostly just a signal that we were going to keep on running higher.
Even though the advance lacks some energy, it is still persistent enough to keep the bears from gaining traction. The longer the bulls can hold us around 1090-1100 and consolidate recent gains, the better chance they have of cutting through that 50-day simple moving average at 1109 and making a run at the January highs. It is going to take a lot of work, but there is a better chance it can happen if we can build a more solid base here.
So what do we do now? The good thing about the weakness we have had over the last three days is that it does help to work off some of the overbought condition that had me complaining about how difficult it was to find good long setups. I actually found more charts of interest yesterday, including some in the China sector -- a group I always like to trade.
After yesterday the bulls are in position to push us up a bit more, but then we face formidable technical overhead at 1108-1110. With thinner trading likely today due to the bad weather in the Northeast, I think the market will likely just drift around ... especially because it's a Friday. There is some opportunity for end-of-the-month window dressing to pressure us upward, but I think that we saw that mostly occur yesterday.
My game plan here is to forgo making a market direction call until there is more clarity and to focus on the individual charts. I'm going to keep time frames quite short and am not interested in building up favorites like Dendreon (DNDN) and Taser (TASR) right now. I do like the looks of some China names like A-Power (APWR) and possibly the precious metals, but I want to see the tone of the market after the first hour of trading.
We have some slight positive action in the early going and overseas markets were mostly up. There is a lot of talk about the weak euro trade, but there seems to be such a consensus about it that I'm a bit leery and think we may actually see more weakness in the dollar.
Stay flexible and be ready to move quickly. It is an environment without a lot of energy, which makes for more random action.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RST +13.0%, DECK +10.2%, INT +7.3% (light volume), TTM +7.1%, VLCM +5.0% (light volume), MGLN +4.9%, AGO +4.3%, KOPN +2.5%, GPS +2.0% (plans to increase dividend), HANS +1.0% ... M&A news: CKR 25.7% (CKE Restaurants to be acquired by Thomas H. Lee Partners for $11.05/share in cash)... Select India related names showing strength: SLT +1.7%, IBN +1.5%... Select solar stocks ticking higher: TSL +4.4%, CSIQ +2.9% (initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley),YGE +1.7%... Other news: CHBT +4.3% (still checking), ARNA +2.0% (receives PDUFA date for Lorcaserin NDA of Oct 22), JACK +1.8% (up in sympathy with CKR)... Analyst comments: CHU +5.7% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), AZN +1.9% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman), DLTR +0.6% (initiated with a Mkt Perform at JMP Securities).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DAIO -11.6% (light volume), VSEC -10.2%, CROX -10.1%, WTW -9.8%, NVTL -8.8%, JRCC -8.8%, COGT -8.4%, LYG -7.6%, OVTI -7.5%, FCN -7.2%, FLR -6.2% (also downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird), AIG -5.2%, SD -4.8% (also downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), VVC -4.7% (light volume), SONS -4.0%, DRYS -3.8%, CNO -3.0%, GERN -2.8% (light volume), FRO -2.5%, MRX -1.4%, LEAP -1.3%, WYNN -1.1%... Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -6.7%, LYG -6.4%, AIB -2.6%, BBVA -1.5%, BCS -1.2%, CS -1.0%... Other news: ATHN -12.7% (Postpones Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2009 Earnings Release; downgraded to Mkt Perform from Mkt Outperform at JMP Securities), BXS -10.4% (announces delay in filing; adjustments are expected to decrease net income), TKC -4.2% (expects negative impact from impairment charges, write-offs and legal reserves in 4Q09; downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), ARM -2.9% (prices 17.35 mln common shares at $10.50/share), CCL -2.2% and RCL -1.0% (still checking for anything specific), EXM -1.8% (ticking lower in sympathy with DRYS), EQY -1.5% (Liberty in talks to sell US malls - FT; downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS ), CRH -1.2% (still checking)... Analyst comments: PETM -3.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), DPS -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), ORA -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Piper), CIEN -2.1% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus ), MOT -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), TCO -2.0% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), PXD -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), CCE -0.9% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus). -
February Chicago PMI 62.6 vs 59.7 consensus, prior 61.5
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February University of Michigan-Sentiment 73.6 vs 73.9 consensus, prelim 73.7
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January Existing Home Sales 5.05 mln vs 5.50 mln consensus; M/M change -7.2%
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World Bank President says don't expect double dip in world economy - DJ
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Germany's KFW bank may buy greek debt in emergency measure, Bloomberg says - Reuters
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Uskumatu, kus valdav osa analüütikutest on viimasel ajal väga karused euroopa suhtes, tuues peamiseks põhjuseks suurt võlakoormat. Mida aga tehakse USA-s, rebitakse aina võlga juurde ja USA võlg on positiivne? Mastaabid küll teised aga võlg on võlg.
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patrioot:
väike võlg on suur mure laenajale
suur võlg on suur mure laenuandjale
võlg on võlg - ei pea paika see ütlus enam ammu -
GOOG ja BIDU kauplemas põhimõtteliselt samas hinnas. Paistab, et raha liigub GOOG-list BIDU-sse. GOOG -> $527.80 ja BIDU->$518.42, vahe ainult slles, et GOOG teenis 2009 aastal EPS-i $23.2 ja BIDU EPS $6.43. Isegi kui viimase kasumikasv oleks 2010 100% tundub ikkagi rämekallis. Sellise hinnataseme juures võib pidu varsti väga kurvalt lõppeda.
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Arusaadav, et GIGM on etem, mis siin vaielda.
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Alari, sa hindad pidut valesti, nagu mina seda juba kaua olen teinud, siin valuatsioon enam mingit rolli ei mängi.
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Pankadele internetipanga lahendusi pakkuv Online Resources (ORCC) -12,6%
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Oi hullu, mis siis nüüd teha?
