Börsipäev 5. märts
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Kuu esimesele reedele kohaselt on USAst täna kell 15.30 oodata rportit möödunud kuu jooksul toimunud muutuste kohta tööjõuturul. Konsensusootuseks on ca 63 000 töökoha kaotamine ning töötusmäära kerkimine 9.7% pealt 9.8% peale. Tunnitasult oodatakse ca 0.3%list kerkimist ning keskmisel töönädala kukkumist 33.9 tunni pealt 33.7 tunni peale.
Eile õhtul näidati turul enne sulgumist üles ostuhuvi ning kui tööjõuraport halba üllatust ei valmista, on viimase 1.5 kuu tippude ründamine tõenäoline. -
Investor acquires 10.2 percent of Saab AB from BAE Systems.
2010-03-05 08:45
Investor has reached an agreement with BAE Systems to acquire 11,166,173 B-shares in Saab AB, corresponding to 10.2 percent of the capital, at a price of SEK 95.50*) per share, or SEK 1,066 m. in total.
Prior to the transaction, Investor owns 4,207,123 A-shares and 17,404,802 B-shares in Saab AB, corresponding to 19.8 percent of the capital and 38.0 percent of the votes.
Following the transaction, and Investor and BAE Systems' conversion of A-shares to B-shares, Investor will own 1,907,123 A-shares and 30,870,975 B-shares in Saab AB, corresponding to 30.0 percent of the capital and 39.5 percent of the votes respectively. -
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aClQsG5XSBeg&pos=3
kas hirmul on suured silmad või on tõesti nii palju tuge vaja et turgu hoida ? -
Muidugi on tuge vaja. Kui nad preagu intresse tõstma hakkavad, siis hakkavad hüpoteekide intressid tõusma ja seda nad endale hetkel lubada ei saa. Mitte et intresside tõus iseenesest midagi nii koledat oleks, aga USAs on otsustatud, et intressid kodulaenudele peavad madalad olema, et majandust taas jalule tõsta. Kui juba praegu on foreclosure'ite ja NODide rate ja absoluutarv kõrge, siis annab ainult mõelda, milline näeks pilt välja kõrgemate intresside korral. Erinevalt ECB'st (kelle ainuke ülesanne on inflatsiooni hoidmine alla 2%) on Fed'il 4 ülesannet: stabiilne inflatsioon, full employment, majanduskasv ja nüüd ka varade hinna stabiilsuse tagamine (majade ja aktsiate näol). Seega intresside tõstmiseks peavad kõik 4 paranemise märke näitama. Ja ei saa mainimata jätta, et kui Fed tightening cycle'i osas natuke mööda paneb, siis peavad nad arvestama rahva vihaga, mis on juba preagu väga kõrgel tasemel. Seega ma ütleksin, et nad pigem lasevad õigel ajal mööda minna ja tõstavad intresse alles siis, kui kõik märgid viitavad paranemisele.
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Eile CNBC-le intervjuu andnud Marc Faber suhtub Kreeka valitsuseplaanidesse skeptiliselt, kuna suures kulude kärpimise hoos võib Kreeka ühtäkki tajuda, et väiksema eelarvega ei õnnestu neil saavutada majanduskasvu, millega programmis on arvestatud. See toob riigile vähem maksutulu ning kokkuvõttes raskendab intresside maksmist. Link intervjuule
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eriti magus oleks kui GOOG lõpuks ütleks et jääb Hiina, mis tegelikult üsnagi tõenäoline on.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/10696145/1/china-talking-with-google-to-settle-spat.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA -
Goldman Sachsi üsna ekstreemne kalkulatsioon, kuidas lumetorm võib mõjutada tänast USA tööjõuraportit:
A quick back-of-the envelope calculation illustrates that the impact could in theory amount to several hundred thousand jobs. In recent expansions the typical February non-seasonally adjusted net job gain has been around 700,000-800,000 jobs; monthly gross job gains are probably around three times this amount (although the exact number is unclear as the data are only available quarterly). If a major snowstorm shut down half of United States businesses’ hiring and firing activity for half of the payroll period (i.e roughly two weeks), then the impact would presumably be ½ x ½ x 700-800k, or 175,000-200,000. If for any reason the hiring process was more susceptible to disruption or delays than firing, then the impact could be as much as three times as large. Of course, the assumption of a total shutdown in hiring for half the country seems too extreme, but these calculations give a sense of the potential upper bound of impact.
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Island, kellele Euroopa Komisjon hiljuti ust ühendusse avada soovitas, seisab homme silmitsi rahvahääletusega. Referendumile asetatud seaduseelnõu alusel peaks Island võtma 5.2 miljardi dollari suuruse kohustuse (ehk 16 400 USD elaniku kohta) kompenseerimaks Suurbritannia ja Hollandi investorite deposiidikahjusid. Pangandussüsteemi kokkukukkumise järel nii üksteise, poliitikute kui ka välispankade suhtes tugevasse vastuseisu sattunud islandlased suure tõenäosusega eelnõu heaks ei kiida. Pikemalt saab sellest lugeda Timesoline lehel avaldatud artiklist, kus üks Islandi majandusteemadel blogija kirjutab oma frusteerivast olukorrast järgmist:
My mortgage has soared and I’m in negative equity. I have lost my pension and some savings and I lose every time I shop for anything in Icelandic kronas anywhere on Icelandic soil. I have lost two jobs, I have lost income and I have lost through high interest rates. I have lost public services yet I am paying more for less all over the place. Like most ordinary Icelanders, I am a big, bloody economic loser.
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Huvitav aga ma ei mäleta neid Islandlasi vingumas buumi ajal, et meie peres on iga inimese kohta neli maasturit ja kolmas maja seisab tühjana, peame sellest koerakuudi tegema. Nagu Kreekaski on valitsus süüdi ja rahvas on alati kannatajaks, hoolimata heast elust mida tüübid said aastaid viljeleda. Islandlased sama moodi iga nädal oma valitsuse ees nõuavad kõikide tagasiastumist aga riik see on ikkagi lisaks teritoorimulike ka rahvas ju.
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Tõenäoliselt ei kiidaks mitte ühegi riigi elanikud maailmas heaks eelnõud, millega võetakse ca 200 000 kroonine kohustus elaniku kohta - eriti veel, kui tuntakse, et see kohustus on neile määratud ebaõiglaselt. Aga tuleviku usalduse laseks see muidugi pikaks ajaks veega potist alla.
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February Nonfarm Payrolls -36K vs -68K consensus, January revised to -26K from -20K.
February Unemployment Rate 9.7% vs 9.8% consensus, January 9.7%.
February Average Hourly Earnings M/M +0.1% vs +0.2% consensus, January +0.2%.
February Average Weekly Hours 33.8 vs 33.7 consensus, January 33.9. -
Makroandmed positiivsed ning S&P500 futuurid on eelturul tõusnud juba +0.8%.
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& detsember oli samuti varasemast numbrist märgatavalt parem:
December Nonfarm payroll revised to -109K from -150K -
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.73%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.18%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.81%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.35%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.83%
Venemaa MICEX +1.63%
Poola WIG +0.71%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.20%
Hongkongi Hang Seng +1.03%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.25%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +1.23%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.73%
Tai Set 50 -1.01%
India Sensex 30 +0.13% -
Don't Jump to Bearish Conclusions
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/5/2010 8:14 AM EST
Many people quit looking for work when they find a job.
-- Author unknown
We are primed for an interesting day of action, with the indices steadily trending up and an important jobs report coming up. This is a classic 'sell-the-news' setup, but one thing that can be said with certainty about this market is that it hasn't tended to follow classic patterns.
As I've noted way too often, the tendency of this market is to move straight up in V-ish fashion and easily cut through technical overhead on declining volume. There seems to be an endless supply of buyers and extremely strong underlying support. Trying to time a turning point has been an impossible task and has produced steady losses for those who try.
The consensus estimate is that we will see a loss of 50,000 jobs in the report this morning, but there has been much speculation that the harsh weather in the Northeast will "artificially" cause a greater loss. The bulls are ready to dismiss a poor number as an aberration and there is likely to be a strong inclination to buy the bad news.
The chances of a selloff are probably higher if we have a good report and gap up initially. With technical conditions being so extended, it sets the stage for a exhaustion move. The key will be if the indices go negative after a positive open.
We'll see how things look after the jobs news hits, but it is pretty obvious that there is underlying support, and even if we do see a 'sell-the-news' reaction, I wouldn't be too bearish too quickly. The dip buyers are out there once again and they are very likely to be aggressive, as they have had so few opportunities to do their thing.
For many market players, including me, it has been difficult to fully embrace this market's tendency to go straight up. It is not an environment where it pays to act in a risk-averse manner. My No.1 priority is to always protect capital -- above all else. As long as I have capital, I can stay in the game, so my goal is to make sure that my accounts always stay as close to all-time highs as possible. As a result, I'm constantly taking profits into strength and avoiding chasing situations that appear to be extended. The problem is that in this market, the most profitable approach is to chase extended charts and to ride them as they become even more extended. Those who are bullish and don't worry about the charts can do that, but it doesn't work well for me.
I'll be back after we see the jobs number to evaluate the mood. Right now, we are looking very upbeat once again. Overseas markets are doing well and a slightly weaker dollar is boosting oil and commodity plays.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DEER +5.7%, CPBY +5.7%, SYT +2.0%... M&A news: RCNI +27.5% (to be acquired by ABRY Partners for $15/share in cash)... European bank stocks continue to show relative strength: AIB +8.5% (FT reports Shares in AIB rose as much as 20% overseas, driven by speculation that it would manage to find investors for its assets), IRE +5.7%, UBS +2.4%, RBS +2.2%, BCS +2.2%... Other news: ITMN +86% (FDA has posted briefing documents for the March 9 Pulmonary-Allergy Drugs Advisory Committee meeting to review the New Drug Application for pirfenidone)... Analyst comments: TIVO +6.5% (upgraded at JP Morgan following yesterday's patent case, tgt upped to $19 at Kaufman), CWTR +4.5% (upgraded to Overweight at Barclays), BRCD +1.7% (Storage alone is worth more than its current share price - Oppenheimer), AGU +1.2% (initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank), GOOG +0.7% (Citigroup believes the recent 12% pullback in GOOG shares creates a good buying opportunity).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: BOOM -8.8%, ARST -8.5%, RWC -7.6%, VE -4.2%, MENT -3.2%, SOLF -3.0%, MRVL -2.5%... Other news: NBIX -8.5% (announces proposed public offering of common stock - no size given), NG -5.9% (announces co will issue 18,181,818 common shares at $5.50/share to several funds managed by Paulson & Co), GPRE -5.6% (prices 5.5 mln common shares at $13.50/share), CNXT -5.4% (prices 14.0 mln common shares at $4.00/share), OSG -4.2% (filed for a common stock shelf offering for an indeterminate amount)... Analyst comments: COF -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman). -
Müük hetkel täiesti puudulik ja tiksutakse lihtsalt samm sammult üles. Täna võiks olla see päev, kus turg õhtuks madalamale tuuakse (juhul kui kasumit võtma hakatakse). Liiga teravaks on see tõusunurk läinud ja kõiksugu spekulatiivne kraam lendab linnutiivul.
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Turg 1,5 h ühe koha peal seisnud ja käive kadunud. RUT murrab üha uusi tippe, seal tõusunurk juba eriti ekstreemseks läinud. AAPL kõigub samuti tippudes ja VIX langenud juba 18 punktini. Sellien olukord kaua ei püsi, varsti tehakse kummalegi poole korralik liikumine.
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Kahtlen sügavalt, et nädalavahetuseks keegi kasumid üles jätab, eks see päevalõpu müük ikka tuleb.
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U.S. Rep Frank says supports Treasury's intention to stand fully behind terms of its December 24 statement on Fannie, Freddie debt - Reuters
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Paistab, et huvitavamaks võib minna SPY liikumisel alla 113.75 ja ES futuuri kukkumisel alla 1132.50 taseme. Kui seda ei juhtu siis tiksutakse neist tasemeist kõrgemal päeva lõpuni.
Mõni aeg tagasi oli üks sarnane päev, kus gap-upile järgnes kerge spike üles ja kogu ülejäänud päev tiksuti 2-3 punkti vahemikus kuni sulgemiseni välja.
Kuna täna müük täielikult puudunud, siis ootaks õhtuks kerget kasumivõtmist. -
Weekly Insider Trading Summary:
Notable Purchases -- CNO, PQ, DPS, and SD Directors buying after the qtr;
Notable Sales -- ACGL, BRKR, TXRH, and LL each selling over $10 mln in stock -
ES ja SPY mõlemates korralik käibespike!
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Kell juba niikaugel, et müüjad peaks ka näole andma aga selle asemel tõmmatakse järjest ülespoole.
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Nasdaq Comp reaches 2324.54, its Jan/52-wk intraday high is at 2326.28
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Ja jällegi olukord, kus käive indeksites ja futuurides, üksikaksiad tiksuvad lihtsalt väikse käibega kaasa.
Põhjust ei pea kaugelt otsima:
January Consumer Credit $5.0 bln vs -$4.5 bln consensus, prior revised to -$4.6 bln from -$1.7 bln
First increase in consumer credit since January 2009 -
VIX juba alla 18 punkti ja turg sammub reipalt aina ülespoole.
Käive SPY-s ja ES-s spikes mõnusalt juba 15 minutit datast varem. -
short sellerid tulid kasumit võtma...
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First increase in consumer credit since January 2009
Tarbija krediidi suurenemine aitab tarbimise kasvatamisele kaasa. -
Nagu viimnepäev, jube rabamine lõpuni.
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Kasumivõtu ootuses tundub RUT 640 put $2 usd pealt üsna hea bet. Tegemist väga riskantse positsiooniga ja juhul kui esmaspäev näitab turg tõusu, siis ilmselt lossiga kinni.
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Siia lisaks, et RUT on viimasest 20-st kauplemispäevast lõpetanud tõusus 17 päeva.
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Hewlett-Packard sees $0.03 negative impact from EDS litigation; now sees non-GAAP Q1 EPS of $1.07 vs $1.05 First Call consensus
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Islanlased ütlesid ei
Voters in Iceland have overwhelmingly rejected proposals to pay the UK and the Netherlands in the wake of collapse of the Icesave bank.
With a third of results counted, 93% of voters said "No" in a referendum.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8553979.stm
