Börsipäev 9. märts
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eilne üles-alla saagimine USA turgudel on täna eeskujuks olnud ka Aasiale, kus olulisemad indeksid kauplevad nulli lähedal. Makro kalender jääb nädala esimeses pooles küllaltki vaeseks, seevastu neljapäeval saabub Hiinast suurem osa veebruarikuu statistikast: sealhulgas tööstustoodang, jaemüük ning inflatsiooninumbrid. Viimast jälgitakse erilise tähelepanuga, kuna liiga tempokas hinnatõus võib nõuda keskpangalt arvatust kiiremat tegutsemist rahapoliitika karmistamisel.
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Kulla hinnale ei avalda suurt mõju hiinlaste kommentaarid, et hetkel suuri koguseid seotada ei soovita (kuna kulla hind kaupleb ajalooliste tippude juures, siis tundub mõistlik otsus):
Gold is “unlikely” to be China’s primary investment to diversify its reserve holdings because of price risks, Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, said today. (link Bloombergi loole siin)
Siin üks graafik, kus näha paljud arenguriigid kulda hoiavad (pikemalt kirjutasime sellest siin):
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Täna möödub täpselt aasta ka kriisi põhjadest globaalsetel aktsiaturgudel. Viimased 12. kuud on investorite jaoks olnud erakordselt head ja globaalsed aktsiaturud on koguni 70% ülespoole liikunud. Bloombergi andmetel on parima ralli sõitnud Ukraina börs, mis on tõusnud rohkem kui 4x:
Ukrain Equities Index:
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Jäi silma Swedbanki aktsia liikumine viimasel aastal:
Viimane hind: 70,8
52 nädala tipp 77,1
52 nädala põhi 15,14
Aastane muutus: +365,19%
Aktsia hinna liikumist võiks pidada ka Baltikumi majanduse peegelduseks (õigemini vast ootuste peegelduseks). -
Mõte IMF-i sarnase institutsiooni loomisest Euroopa sees peaks pakkuma liikmesriikidele suurt huvi, kuna sellega väheneks sõltuvus IMF-st. Ka Angela Merkel nimetab plaani huvitavaks, kuid koos Jürgen Starkiga loetakse seda lähiajal siiski ebarealistlikuks ettevõtmiseks. FT Alphaville kajastab BNP Paribase arvamust, miks võib EMF-i asutamine keeruliseks osutuda:
The introduction of an EMF implies a loss of national sovereignty and the Lisbon II Treaty illustrated how difficult the ratification of such a treaty could be. Most importantly EMF will be a multi-year project and will be of no help to Greece or any other troubled European economy at the moment. nonetheless, the idea of EMF provides some very useful insights. With this proposal, European politicians indirectly admit that bringing in the IMF would be the best solution. The EMF would follow similar rules and procedures as the IMF, but the only reason why the IMF has not yet been considered to sort out Greece seems to be down to the loss of reputation for EMU should the IMF need to sort out Greece.
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Mina osaliselt arvan, et EMFi loomine oleks hea. Praegu on näha kahte läbikukkumist regulatiivse poole pealt: esiteks kasvu-ja stabiilsuspakti jm etteseatud kriteeriume ei hinnata piisavalt ning reaalsus ei nihestata ära kui toimub rikkumine. Ja teiseks kui probleemid on tekkinud, siis ei saa neid kuidagi lahendatud. EMF aitaks vähemalt laehendamisele kaasa. Kuid äkki oleks võimalik sinna külge monteerida ka hoobasid ennetustööks.
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olen momentumiga nõus, et kui IMF teostab oma liikmete tervisekontrolli, hoiatab riskide eest ning pakub vajadusel finantsabi, siis sarnase rolliga EMF võiks aidata saavutada paremat stabiilsust ka euroalal. Kuid Saksa maksumaksjad oleksid aga peamised finantseerijad ja nagu me viimaste kuude jooksul oleme kuulnud, ei istu neile kuidagi raha jagamine riigile, kus nädalas tehakse vähem töötunde, elatakse pillavalt, pensioniga on lähemal ja makse makstakse oma suva järgi.
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Kui IMF juba olemas on siis miks pagana pärast ta vanas Euroopas toimetada ei saa kui Lätis ja Islandil saab? Et on vana Euroopa abivajajate jaoks liiga karmi käega ja julgevad ka mingeid nõudmiseid ja tingimusi seada mitte ei pritsi niisama pappi nagu Euroopas tavaks? Siis võiks ECB juba lihtsalt vajalikus koguses raha trükkida.
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Üks põhjus, miks IMF-i ei taheta euroala lähedale lasta on muidugi poliitiline aga ühte Economisti artiklit lugedes jäi silma täiendav nüanss. Rahvusvaline valuutafond nõuab oma karmikäeliste ettekirjutuste juures muutusi nii fiskaal- ja aeg-ajalt ka montaarpoliitikas. Kui nüüd ühtäkki öeldakse Kreekale ja võib-olla tulevikus veel mõnele euroala riigile, et peate oma monetaarpoliitikat sobivamaks muutma siis tegelikkuses on see etteheide Euroopa Keskpangale. Viimane peab aga hoolitsema intressimäärade eest, mis on sobilikud 16le liikmesriigile.
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Jah. Kuna IMFis on palju suuri osapooli, siis IMFi kaasamine EMU riikide probleemide laehendamisele võib tekitada olukorra, kus keegi teine peale EMU kontrollib EMU-t.
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Siin on üks päris huvitav analüüs, kuidas portfelli hajutamine erinevate riikide lõikes aitab parandada tootlust.
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Broadpoint AmTech Research tõstab Apple'i hinnasihi enne iPadi lansseeringut 265 dollarilt 280 dollarile ning ütleb konsensusele, et viimane on Apple'i tahvelarvuti suhtes liialt pessimistlik. Analüüsimaja sõnul kulus neil kõigest 15 minutit, et seadmesse ära armuda, mistõttu kergitati iPadi 2010.a müüginumbrit 2.2 miljonilt ühikult 4 miljonile. Seadme suurimaks võluks on taasuueneva loomusega sisu/meedia, mis võib 2011 majandusaastal moodustada ca 30% iPadi riistvara käibest. Euroopasse hakatakse mac.ee lehe kohaselt tarneid teostama juunis ning siis saab juba ise proovida, kas ja kui kiiresti armumine aega võtab.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MVIS -9.9%, WX -6.4%, MLNK -4.5% (light volume), HRB -2.6% (also trading ex dividend), CASY -2.4%, TXN -1.4%, VVUS -0.7%... Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -5.8%, AIB -3.9%, RBS -3.7%, NBG -3.4%, STD -2.7%, UBS -2.5%, CS -2.5%, ING -2.4%, BBVA -2.4%, HBC -2.3%, PUK -1.7%, BCS -1.5%, DB -1.5%... Select metals/mining names trading lower: RTP -2.4%, SLW -2.3%, EGO -2.2%, IAG -2.1%, BBL -2.0%, BHP -1.9%, NEM -1.6%, MT -1.3%... Select oil/gas related names ticking lower: STO -2.1%, PTR -1.1%, SLB -1.1%... Other news: HTM -11.6% (Announces $8.6 mln private placement financing), SCOK -7.9% (continued weakness from yesterday's 8 point decline), TTM -3.7% (Daimler sells equity interest in Tata Motors), FSLR -3.4% (still checking), SUSQ -3.0% (announces offering of $300 mln common stock and $50 mln cumulative trust preferred securities, series II), CMA -1.9% (announces it has commenced an $800 mln common stock offering, downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital Markets), X -1.9% (still checking), CVX -0.9% (outlined plans to improve returns and streamline downstream portfolio and organization; Q1 charges for severance are currently estimated to be $150-200 mln)... Analyst comments: ZRAN -5.5% (downgraded to Hold at Collins Stewart), CAKE -2.1% (downgraded to Neutral at MKM Partners), TXT -2.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan ), TM -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Standpoint Research),
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CPE +17.4%, FRPT +11.3%, CHINA +10.8%, GAIA +8.4%, DIOD +2.7%, SNHY +2.4% (light volume)... Other news: HOKU +9.1% (receives $50 million from Tianwei Loan to finance polysilicon plant), ALKS +8.4% (still checking), IMGN +5.8% (announces orphan drug designation granted to IMGN901 for treatment of merkel cell carcinoma by US FDA and EU COMP), ACUR +4.9% (Acura Pharma and King Pharmaceuticals announce 'positive' top line results of a clinical study assessing relative abuse potential), SKX +3.4% (higher following positive Jim Cramer comments on growth story), GGP +1.6% (receives proposal for $3.925 bln in new equity capital from Fairholme Capital Management and Pershing Square Capital Management)... Analyst comments: CERS +8.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird), WRC +6.0% (upgraded to Outperform at Credit Suisse), CXDC +3.9% (initiated with a Buy at Canaccord Adams), HK +3.6% (upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo), LNCE +2.4% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T Capital Mkts), YUM +1.7% (upgraded to Buy at UBS),
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Rev Shark: Faith vs. Discipline? I'll Choose Discipline
03/09/2010 8:38 AMStrategy must have continuity. It can't be constantly reinvented.
-- Michael PorterWith the Russell 2000 straight up 17 of the last 19 days, the No. 1 question on the minds of market players this morning is how much longer we can ride this freight train without some sort of correction kicking in. The answer so far is, much longer than most people think.
Some market players believe that this action is fully justified and perfectly logical. Those in that camp have little problem just staying long and strong. The market has rewarded the unflinching bulls well; buy-and-hold has been the way to go for a year now, and those who have tried to actively trade have most likely underperformed, especially if they had any doubts about the market's ability to pull off a series of "V"-shaped moves on declining volume.
I can go on at great length about the unusual nature of this market's rally over the past year. Essentially having faith has trumped being disciplined. You had to have the confidence to buy extended charts as they became more extended to really excel in this market environment.
So here we are again at a very familiar juncture -- we are clearly extended but showing few, if any, signs of weakness. Our choices are to keep the faith that the bulls will persist or to honor the charts and cut back our exposure as they become more extended.
Even though the charts have misled us often over the past year, I still have to defer to them. Charts aren't infallible and they can be read in different ways by different people, but they provide a logical framework for attacking the market. If you are going to try to trade the market rather than just buy and hold, then you need to use charts to implement a methodology. Quite often a disciplined methodology will cause you to miss out but over the long run it will reward you.
The biggest benefit I gain from using a disciplined trading methodology is that it helps me keep my accounts at all-time highs. Discipline helps me avoid the big downtrends and keeps me constantly locking in gains during uptrends. I might underperform to some degree during an uptrend compared to a buy-and-hold strategy, but I will really outperform during downtrends and that is what results in superior returns. As Warren Buffett has said, the most important rule of investing is to avoid making mistakes. Charts have helped me do.
The above is my rather long-winded way of saying that this market is very tough here if you are trying to disciplined but don't want to be over-anticipatory in looking for weakness. You certainly want to stick with a trend that is as strong as the one we've been seeing, but you also want to make sure you are systematically locking in gains as the charts become too extended. It is difficult balancing act, and it's even more difficult if you keep looking for major turning points.
All we can really do is continue to monitor the action very carefully and be prepared to adjust as conditions change. We have a little profit-taking kicking in this morning, but there are still few signs that any substantial selling is about to take place. The goal is to respect the trend but protect your gains. If you can do that, you'll come out ahead.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -047%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,54%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0,61%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1,35%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,71%
Venemaa MICEX -0,86%
Poola WIG -0,55%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,17%
Hongkongi Hang Seng +0,05%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,52%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,21%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,09%
Tai Set 50 -0,22%
India Sensex 30 -0,29%S&P 500 alustas päeva -0.2% punases.
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Chicago Fed's Evans says will be a little bit concerned about softness in Fed funds market when time comes to raise rates - Reuters
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Greek Finance Minister, on CNBC, says it is clear that Greece cannot continue to borrow at current rates in market
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Fed's Evans says quite comfortable with exceptionally low, 'extended period' language; 'extended period' means three to four meetings - Reuters
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$40 bln 3-year Note Auction Results: Yield 1.437% (expected 1.449%); Bid/Cover 3.13x (Prior 2.83x, 10-auction avg 2.89x); Indirect Bidders 51.8% (Prior 51.2%, 10-auction avg 52.0%)
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American Intl shares surge here @ midday as price now pushes through notable technical resistance of yesterday's 30.25 HoD and the 200-day SMA near the 30.50 level
Väga radioaktiivne kraam. -
Floor Talk: AIG rallies 18% on strong volume; would note that the stock has become virtually "unborrowable" today; this has contributed to market chatter that govt to place restrictions on Shorting stocks in which they have significant ownership stakes
This chatter also is contributing to sharp in advances in other government-controlled entities such as FNM (+11%%) and FRE (+14%), but we would note there are plenty of shares available to borrow for a Short in both of these names. In addition, Citigroup (C +7%) shares remain widely available for borrow. Moreover, while AIG has become extremely difficult to borrow today, this is not the first time this year that the supply of shortable shares has dried up in the stock.
American Intl declines to comment on share gains - DJ -
Sen Dodd says no agreement yet on financial reform, talks in delicate stage - Reuters
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$149 bln Jobs Bill clears procedural hurdle in U.S. Senate; bill reinstates $25 bln in expired tax breaks - Reuters
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U.S. Treasury's Barr says bank participation in 2nd mortgage modification program is 'disappointing' - Reuters
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InterMune (ITMN) will host conference call at 5:00pm ET to discuss the outcome of today's Pulmonary-Allergy Drugs Advisory Committee
Aktsia tegi viimastel päevadel läbi korraliku tõusu (~80%). Kauplemine aktsiaga on peatatud. -
American Intl: $1.3 bln debt issue by AIG's ILFC unit attracts strong demand - WSJ
