Börsipäev 12. märts
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Aasia indeksid on kauplemas erisuunaliselt: Hiina monetaarpoliitika võimaliku karmistamise hirmus üle poole protsendi miinuses, Tokyo aga sama palju plussis tänu eksportijatele.
Täna tuleb USAs avaldamisele selle nädala olulisim makroinfo, milleks on veebruarikuu jaemüük (kl 15.30). Viimaste kuude näitajad on tarbimiskulutuste kohalt julgustavad olnud, kuid veebruari lumetormide tõttu leiavad paljud, et möödunud kuu numbrid saavad olema nõrgemapoolsed. Konsensus ootab jaemüügi languseks -0.2%, kuid näeb 0.1%list kasvu automüüki sisse arvestamata. Kell 16.55 avaldatakse lisaks märtsi esialgne Michigani tarbijasentimenti indeks ning kell 17.00 ettevõtete jaanuari varude muutus (konsensus ootab 0.1%list kasvu). -
EU defends hedge fund plans after US criticism
See uudis on vastuseks eilsele USA kriitikale, mille kohta saab lugeda siit. -
Eurotsooni jaanuari tööstustoodangu oodatust tublisti parem näit on toonud tänastesse turuliikumistesse täiendavat optimismi ning hetkeks tõstnud eur/usd kursi 1.378ni. 16 riigi tööstustoodang kerkis 1.7% võrreldes detsembriga ning ületas konsensuse ootust üle kahe korra. Tegemist oli suurima kasvuga alates 1989. aasta augustist. Detsembri MoM näitu revideeriti -1.7%lt +0.6%le
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Väetisetootjad on kõik kenas plussis peale POT +9% avaldatud kasumiprognooside tõstmist:
Sees Q1 EPS $1.30 to $1.50 Vs prior range of $0.70 to $1
Sees record North American sales
Strong offshore shipments also seen -
S&P on eilse sulgemistaseme järel täpselt jaanuarikuu tippude juures - täna paljud jälgimas, kas siit sõidetakse läbi või on see tase, kus müügisurve hakkab jälle kasvama?
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Hiina börsid olid täna languses, kuna paljud räägivad, et nädalavahetusel võib tulla uus pankadele kehtestatud kohustusliku reservimäära tõus või koguni jüaani revalveerimine (loe siit). Kuna Hiinas toimumas suunamuutus rahapoliitkas (kraane keeratakse tasapisi kinni), siis sellised jutud levivad tavaliselt just enne nädalavahetust ja viimasel ajal on nädala lõpud tihti Hiina börsidel punased olnud.
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Goldman Sachs näeb kaugemas tulevikus dollari jätkuvat tugevust, kuid hetkel peaks euro lühiajaline surve taanduma ning siit johtuvalt soovitavad viimast 1.45se sihiga osta.
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Veebruari jaemüük oodatust parem (halva ilma mõju ilmselt väiksem kui oodati):
February Retail Sales +0.3% vs -0.2% consensus, prior revised to +0.1% from +0.5%
February Retail Sales ex-auto +0.8% vs +0.1% consensus, prior revised to +0.5% from +0.6%
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ATV -18.7%, PSUN -13.0% (also FBR Capital downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform), ZUMZ -9.4%, SWHC -8.0%, PLL -4.5%, AIRM -2.7% ... M&A news: CF -5.6% (Agrium to terminate offer to acquire CF Industries), TRA -1.9% (Yara won't raise bid for Terra - WSJ)... Other news: WILC -10.8% (announces that it has priced ~3.3 mln shares at $6.05), SCOK -8.7% (completes private placement financing and raises additional $37 million), AKRX -7.5% (enters into an agreement to sell common stock and warrants; co agreed to sell 1.8 mln shares at $1.36 ), GST -4.5% (postpones earnings release to provide additional time to determine the proper accounting treatment regarding foreign exchange transactions), MITI -4.5% (announces pricing of public offering of 10 mln shares of common stock at $7), DFS -4.3% (announces actions to further enhance loan loss reserve; incl the impact, co expects to report a loss per share for Q1 of $.22 to $0.23), E -1.5% (cuts output growth guidance - Reuters.com), CMO -1.4% (declares quarterly dividend of $0.50 vs. $0.54 previously), PTP -1.4% (light volume; announces preliminary loss estimate from first quarter 2010 catastrophe events), MDT -0.5% (announces public offering of senior notes)... Analyst comments: MWA -4.1% (added to Conviction Sell List at Goldman), ABT -1.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), HBC -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PKT +11.1%, HEV +10.8% (light volume), XOMA +9.1%, POT +7.2%, DJSP +6.7%, CTRN +5.9%, KIRK +4.0%, ARO +4.0% (also Piper Jaffray upgrades to Neutral from Underweight), PEI +3.3%, NSM +2.5%, LDK +2.4%, CBEH +2.3% (light volume), ULTA +2.1%, HRLY +1.8%... M&A news: AGU +6.3% (Agrium to terminate offer to acquire CF Industries)... Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +8.2%, RBS +4.7%, NBG +3.8%, LYG +2.9%, UBS +2.3%, AIG +2.0%, DB +2.0%, CS +1.8%... Select potash/ag names getting boost following POT guidance: IPI +6.6%, CAGC +5.3%, MOS +4.2%, MOO +1.8%, MON +1.8%, BG +1.1%... Select metals/mining names trading higher: MT +2.9%, KGC +1.7%, AUY +1.4%, SLW +1.3%, ABX +1.3%, GFI +1.1%, RTP +0.9%... Other news: ANX +19.0% (Receives Brand Name Acceptance for ANX-530), YONG +5.1% (signs agreement to secure coal resources project in Inner Mongolia, PRC), RFMD +4.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), FMD +4.3% (Office of Thrift Supervision terminates enforcement action against FMD), LTRE +3.0% (awarded FAC-P/PM training contract worth up to $60 mln by Department of Veterans Affairs), YUII +1.8% (confirms auditor resignation, investor conference call), TSL +1.2% (announces increased module shipments with ENERQOS in Italy), AZN +0.9% (comments on FDA Joint Advisory Committee Meeting on post-marketing safety studies for the use of LABAs in asthma), AAPL +0.5% (online store is down, which typically occurs prior to a product launch and/or refresh)... Analyst comments: DNDN +2.1% (initiated with Outperform at Baird), CLF +1.9% (target raised to $83 from $60 at JP Morgan), SCCO +1.9% (upgraded to Buy at Deutsche), GS +0.5% (initiated with Buy at Societe Generale).
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,91%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,64%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0,42%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,10%
Rootsi OMX 30 +1,13%
Venemaa MICEX +1,93%
Poola WIG +1,16%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,81%
Hongkongi Hang Seng -0,09%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1,24%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0,89%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,36%
Tai Set 50 +1,10%
India Sensex 30 -0,01%SP500 indeksi futuur kaupleb hetkel 0,37% kõrgemal
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Rev Shark: Another Day, Another High-Wire Act
03/12/2010 8:00 AMLet not the enjoyment of pleasures now within your grasp be carried to such excess as to incapacitate you from future repetition.
-- SenecaThe market looks set to continue its upbeat action this morning. We've had a remarkable run over the past three weeks, but it's been so unrelenting and so steep that even some of the bulls are starting to root for a pullback.
The market always has a faction that is happy to see us just go up every day without pause, but most market players recognize that it is much healthier if we have occasional profit-taking dips and some consolidation. It is important that stock rotate from weaker holders with shorter time frames to stronger, longer-term holders. That is what keeps an uptrend going over time.
The danger in the current environment is that there is so little recent support due to the "V"-shaped nature of the move that we will see a very abrupt and deep pullback once profit-taking does kick in. Fortunately the dip-buyers are very frustrated with the shallow pullbacks that we have had, so they are providing very strong support. When those dip-buyers decide to stay on the sidelines, that's when things will become ugly.
I'm not going to try to predict when this market is finally going to correct a bit. That has been a fool's task recently. We all know what the bearish arguments are: The market is very extended and has priced in all sorts of good news. It is extremely easy to compose a compelling argument why we should see some downside soon, but until we actually see some actually weakness, it's a moot point. At some point the market will find an excuse to correct, but right now all it is seeing is good news.
I'm finding this market extremely difficult to navigate. There is no way the Russell 2000 can be positive for 21 of 23 days and have many charts with attractive entry points. You simply have to have faith that this very extended market will become even more extended if you want to do much buying. On the other hand, the bears who are trying to catch a turning point are being ground into dust by this relentless market. Overall, it doesn't leave much opportunity for aggressive trading.
My advice for navigating the market at this point remains the same: Stick with very short-term long plays with tight stops. Don't over-anticipate a market pullback but stay extremely vigilant and be ready to move quickly if cracks develop. It is a high-wire act at this point, but you can still rack up some gains if you are willing to accept a high degree of risk.
We have a slightly positive open on the way. Overseas markets were mainly positive with the exception of China. Agriculture is hot on good news from Potash (POT - commentary - Trade Now). The dollar is weak as Goldman has made a bullish call on the euro.
No positions.
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March University of Michigan Sentiment- prelim 72.5 vs 74.0 consensus, February 73.6
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January Business Inventories 0.0% vs +0.1%, prior revised to -0.3% from -0.2%
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Weekly Insider Trading Summary:
Notable Purchases -- Continued buying at WPRT, NSH, EPE, and WATG;
Notable Sales -- TXRH, CBSH, PATR, and KNX each selling over $16 mln in stock -
CNBC reports that Sen Dodd's bill limits Fed to supervising banks with +$50 bln in assets
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Ja lauluvõistlus meeldib kah mulle. Eriti saatejuhid.
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tänane Dow graafik joonistas mustri WWW. fondide reedeõhtune nali Agu Sihvka annab aru stiilis.
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Eurovisioonile saatsime laulu paroodia - ega inimene, kes valib nimeks Malcolm Lincoln ei saagi ............. (rõve sõim serbia keeles).
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võitis kindlalt parim lugu, toimis ilma tobeda akrobaatika ja paukudeta
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Võidu lugu, maitse asi. ? !
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naxitrall, kas sa laulu või refrääni meloodiat mäletad? Mina ei mäleta, aga ma mäletan mõne teise laulu korduvart teemat. EESTI laul see küll polnud.
Üllatus: "Reporteri" laulud polnudki Eurolaulu konkursi laulud. Seal olid just kui paremad lood. -
:D BBC news näitas tunnike tagasi kokkuvõtvat saadet nädala sündmustest (Newsnight?) kus 1 hekifondimees ütles lihtsalt ja rahulikult stuudios külalisena eurosotside tegelasele (Poulsen?), et too on kloun (Joker) kui sots väitis, et hekifondid on Kreeka hädades süüdi, kahjuks seda stuudio vaidlust ei saa netist vaadata vist, aga sama tüübi tööpäevast on ka ülevaade tehtud:
A day in the life of a financial speculator -
Ma arvan et 87.48% siinse foorumi külastajatest ongi veendunud, et keskmine sots ongi kloun... ;)
