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Börsipäev 15. märts

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Tuletame meelde, et USA keeras nädalavahetusel kella ning läks üle suvisele ajale. Kuna Eestis liigutatakse kellaosutit kahe nädala pärast, siis toimubki järgmised kaks nädalat USA turgudel kauplemine Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30-22.00.

    Makroandmetest on oodata täna kell 14.30 märtsikuise Empire Manufacaturing Indexi näitu, kust oodatakse ca 21.5 punkti. Kell 15.15 teatatakse veebruarikuu tööstustoodangu muutus, kus ootuseks on 0.0%. Jaanuari näit oli +0.9%.

    Kuna antud nädala sisse jääb ka kuu kolmas reede, on tegu ka märtsikuiste optsioonide aegumise nädalaga.

    Eelturg on USAs hommikul vaikne olnud, kuid tähtsamate indeksite futuurid on liikumas ca -0.3% juures.

  • Nädalavahetusel jälle üles köetud GOOG lahkumine Hiinast, kas ka seekord annab BIDU-le uut hoogu?
    Google Inc. (GOOG) appears increasingly likely to close down its Chinese-language search engine, probably pulling the plug on the site within weeks, according to a weekend Wall Street Journal report, which cited a person familiar with the situation. Talks between Google and Chinese authorities about the extent to which the Internet company would be allowed to operate an uncensored version of its Chinese-language Web site, google.cn, appear to be deadlocked, the report said. If it does leave, Google's exit would mark the departure of one of the last major foreign players from the world's fastest-growing Internet market.
  • FT kirjutas samuti reede õhtul, et "Google ‘99% certain’ to shut China engine" - link loole siin

  • Esimene tehing uue nädala alguses BIDU aktsiaga $555.60 tasemel, +0.97% reedesest sulgemishinnast.
  • UBS downgraded three Europe chipmakers -- Micronas, CSR and ARM Holdings -- to neutral from buy, largely on valuation.
  • Liar's Poker autor Michael Lewis on valmis saanud uue raamatu, mis kannab pealkirja "The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine" ning nädalavahetuse "60 minutit" on teinud sel teemal temaga pikema intervjuu. Link 

  • Liar's Poker on väga hea põhjendus selleks, miks praktikante poodi võileiva järele saata... ;-)))
  • Kuigi aasta algusega võrreldes on Suurbritannia nael 6% juba dollari vastu kukkunud, on futuurikauplejad panustamas rekordilisi koguseid naela jätkuva nõrgenemise osas. Põhjuseks Suurbritannia suur eelarvedefitsiit ning hirm, et sealne keskpank võib vajadusel lihtsalt raha juurde trükkima hakata. Link Bloombergi loole siin. 

    Samal ajal võib vastuseks aga leida video, kus mõned strateegid usuvad, et nael võiks dollari vastu langemise asemel hoopis 10% rallida. Link videole siin. 

  • Eelturul BIDU 562, GOOG 566. Täna vist üks möödub teisest?
  • Mingit ametlikku kinnitust Google poolt pole antud, et nad otsingumootori Hiinas sulgeks. Arvan, et need spekulatsioonid on ennatlikud.
  • 2010 aastal USA-s uksed sulgenud pankade arv on jõudnud 30-ni:
    CNN reports the closures of Statewide Bank in Louisiana and Florida's Old Southern Bank brought the number of bank failures this year to 30, according to the FDIC. Even though both banks were closed Friday by state regulators, customers can continue using checks and cards because other banks will take over, the FDIC said. Centennial Bank in Arkansas will take over the more than $319 million in deposits from Old Southern Bank. Home Bank of Louisiana will assume the $208 million in deposits from Statewide and buy its $243 million in assets, the FDIC said.
  • Mäletan kui aastaid tagasi maksis BIDU 45$ ja "suured majad" andsid järjest sell reitinguid:)
  • BIDU ongi juba GOOG-st mööda läinud, praegu BIDU 577,50 USD, GOOG 566 USD
  • mis selle möödaminekujutu point on?
    btw, kui BIDU alustas 100 USD pealt millagi 2005. aasta keskel, siis oli GOOG hind ca 300
  • Henno, rohkem midagi kui numbriliselt on lihtsalt möödunud. Või mis veel?
  • March NY Empire Manufacturing 22.86 vs 22.00 Consensus, February 24.91
  • "Põhjuseks Suurbritannia suur eelarvedefitsiit ning hirm, et sealne keskpank võib vajadusel lihtsalt raha juurde trükkima hakata."
    How ironic, et selline hirm paneb USA dollari tugevnema :)
  • Alari kas inimesed on vähem chipse hakanud sööma, mix peax neid alandama?
    Microunas CSR ja ARM holders ..mina olen poes näinud ainult Pringlesi, Laysi, Estrella ja teiste chipse Microunas ja need ju täiesti tundmatud nimed, kes neid üldse sööb?
  • January Net Long-term TIC Flows $19.1 bln vs $47.5 bln, prior 63.3 bln
  • Läinud nädalal avaldatud põhjalik Lehman Brothersi pankrotiraport tegi kindlaks. et kokkuvarisenud investeerimispank oli kriitilistel hetkedel oma bilanssi ajutilselt ilustanud "Repo 105" tehinguga. Siin on üks videolõik, mis selle termini lihtsasti lahti seletab. 
  • USA turud alustavad päeva väikese, ca 0.3%lise, miinusega.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.09%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.14%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.08%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.30%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.02%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.01%
    Poola WIG -0.62%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.01%
    Hongkongi Hang Seng -0.62%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.21%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.70%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.33%
    Tai Set 50 +0.21%
    India Sensex 30 -0.01%

  • Sitting With Cash
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/15/2010 9:01 AM EDT

    Approach the game with no preset agendas and you'll probably come away surprised at your overall effort.
    -- Phil Jackson

    Casual market observers often mistakenly believe that a market going straight up is easy to trade. You just buy and stock and sit there as it moves higher. It sounds pretty simple. The problem is that effective trading requires that you have a methodology for harvesting your gains. If you don't, then the inevitable cycles of the market are going to cost you at some point.

    Basically traders have two choices when it comes to protecting gains. Either you use a trailing stop loss that you move up as a stock moves higher or you sell into strength as a stock advances.

    The benefit of trailing stop losses is that they keep you in a stock as long as it is moving higher, and that can be very beneficial when they go straight up. The downside of stop losses is that if they are too loose you can give up a good amount of profits before they hit, or they may provide no real protection at all if a stock is hit with bad news and it gaps down after hours.

    The other approach to taking gains is to peel off a portion of a position into strength. The benefit of this is that your timing is good you will maximize your gains. The downside is that if you sell too fast you can miss out on a lot of upside if the stock keeps moving.

    Typically I use the second approach and will slowly sell off a stock into strength. I will make numerous small sales and hopefully the average selling price will be higher than if I had just employed a trailing stop loss. This also allows me to use different time frames for various positions in the same stock. I'll hold some of the stock for a quick trade and another portion for longer term.

    If you continually harvest gains in a market that goes straight up (like this one has), you will likely end up holding high levels of cash as it becomes increasingly extended. Normally that isn't a bad thing, as you are positioned well to take advantage when a dip does occur. However when you have the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) up 20 of 23 days, you are going to be left out because there hasn't be any dip to take advantage of.

    That's where many traders find themselves as we kick off the new week. The market has done nothing wrong, but if you have been locking in profits you are very likely underinvested as this market refuses to pull back. Good trading requires some level of volatility, and this market has given us very little.

    It is very tempting to keep on trying to call a top in this market, but the only reason to do so is because we have had so little rest and/or consolidation. We can easily cure that problem by churning and not going anywhere for a while, which will greatly frustrate the bears who want a reversal, but we certainly can't rule that out.

    My game plan at this point remains the same, and I'm staying very-short-term bullish until the market actually exhibits some weakness. I'll take gains very quickly and keep stops tight, and I won't chase extended stocks unless there is big enough volume to suggest sustained momentum. It requires a lot of vigilance, but there really isn't any other alternative at this point.

    We have a tired-looking start this morning, which is probably due to the shift to daylight saving time. Overseas markets were mostly down in Asia and mixed in Europe. The dollar is stronger and Google (GOOG) is being hit on news of continued problems in China while Baidu (BIDU) is benefiting.
    -----------------------------
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MNTG +49.7% (light volume), CHLN +4.4% ... Other news: AMLN +11.1% and ALKS +4.8%(Amylin Pharma, Eli Lilly and Alkermes receive complete response letter from FDA for exenatide once weekly submission), BPAX +9.9% (Announces FDA Orphan Drug Designation for GVAX Pancreatic Cancer Vaccine), CXG +7.7% (CONSOL Energy considers acquisition of shares of CNX Gas common stock that it does not already own), SHO +4.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), STJ +4.0% (announces multiple enhancements to PressureWire FFR Measurement System; ticking higher with reports that peer BSX is having ICD sales suspended), PVH +2.6% (to acquire Tommy Hilfiger B.V. for ~$3.0 bln), BIDU +2.3% (trading higher following GOOG news), D +2.0% (agrees to sell its Appalachian E&P business for $3.475 bln; reaffirms 2010 operating earnings guidance of $3.20-$3.40), PEP +1.2% (annual dividend by 7%; Authorizes share repurchases up to $15 bln)... Analyst comments: NVAX +5.2% (initiated with Buy at Roth), BZH +4.4% (initiated with Buy at Citigroup), SIRO +2.2% (upgraded to Buy at Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey), WMT +0.9% (upgraded to Buy at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ATV -18.7%, PSUN -13.0% (also FBR Capital downgrades to Market Perform from Outperform), ZUMZ -9.4%, SWHC -8.0%, PLL -4.5%, AIRM -2.7% ... M&A news: CF -5.6% (Agrium to terminate offer to acquire CF Industries), TRA -1.9% (Yara won't raise bid for Terra - WSJ)... Other news: WILC -10.8% (announces that it has priced ~3.3 mln shares at $6.05), SCOK -8.7% (completes private placement financing and raises additional $37 million), AKRX -7.5% (enters into an agreement to sell common stock and warrants; co agreed to sell 1.8 mln shares at $1.36 ), GST -4.5% (postpones earnings release to provide additional time to determine the proper accounting treatment regarding foreign exchange transactions), MITI -4.5% (announces pricing of public offering of 10 mln shares of common stock at $7), DFS -4.3% (announces actions to further enhance loan loss reserve; incl the impact, co expects to report a loss per share for Q1 of $.22 to $0.23), E -1.5% (cuts output growth guidance - Reuters.com), CMO -1.4% (declares quarterly dividend of $0.50 vs. $0.54 previously), PTP -1.4% (light volume; announces preliminary loss estimate from first quarter 2010 catastrophe events), MDT -0.5% (announces public offering of senior notes)... Analyst comments: MWA -4.1% (added to Conviction Sell List at Goldman), ABT -1.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), HBC -1.1% (downgraded to Neutral at Goldman).
  • February Industrial Production +0.1% vs 0.0% consensus, prior +0.9%; Capacity Utilization 72.7% vs 72.5%, prior 72.5%
  • Tuletame siis veelkord meelde, et turud sulguvad täna ja järgmisel kahel nädalal kell 22.00 ja mitte kell 23.00. Päeva lõpus on näidatud ilusat rallit ning miinus on suudetud tasa teha.
  • Ikka mõnus on BIDU kodulehekülge vaadata :-) Ei tea kohe mis shrifti või keelt kasutada.

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