Börsipäev 18. märts
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USA S&P500 indeksi liikumist jälgiv börsilkaubeldav fond SPY on koos eilse tõusuga liikunud ülespoole nüüd juba järjestikused 14 börsipäeva. See tähendab, et hoolimata sellest, et täna oleme juba märtsikuu teises pooles, pole SPY sel kuul veel mitte kordagi langenud ning üleostetus on võtmas ostueufooria kuju.
Täna on USAst tulemas omajagu makroandmeid. Kell 14.30 teatatakse veebruarikuu tarbijahinnaindeksi muutus (ootus +0.1%) ning tarbijahinnaindeksi tuumikosa muutus (ootus +0.1%), esmaste töötuabiraha taotlejate annualiseeritud arvuks oodatakse ca 455 000, kestvate töötu abiraha taotlejate arvuks ca 4.52 miljonit. Kell 16.00 teatatakse veebrurikuu juhtivate indikaatorite muutus, kust oodatakse ca 0.1%list kasvu ning Philadelphia Fedi number, millelt oodatakse ca 18.0 punktilist näitu. Seega päris palju erinevaid numbreid täna tulemas.
Kuigi eelturg alles väga varajane, on päev enne homset optsioonireedet hetkel USA indeksid ca 0.2% kuni 0.3%lises languses. -
Cash has become king to an even greater extent than in the past because of the credit crunch!
Sularaha tehnoloogiafirmade bilansis (2009.a. lõpu seisuga):
Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO) $39.6 billion
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) $36.1 billion
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) $24.8 billion
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) $24.5 billion
Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ:ORCL) $20.8 billion -
kas tänasel päeval jüaani panustada ei oleks smart ?
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE62H0D520100318 -
Kaubalennuk kukkus Ülemiste järve
18.03.2010, 10:44
Täna hommikul kukkus Ülemiste järve kaubalennuk. Lennuki An-26 pardal oli kolm inimest. Kinnitamata andmeil kuulub lennuk Läti firmale RAF-Avia.
Müüge nüüd ruttu Tallinna Vett! -
Meil siis ka oma "Miracle on the Hudson River" :)
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Deutsche Bank tõstis täna Burger Kingile (BKC) antava aktsiasoovituse 'neutraalse' pealt 'osta' peale ning liigutas hinnasihi $19 pealt $24 peale. Panen siia ka väikese kokkuvõtva lõigu nende kommentaarist:
Upgrade to Buy from Hold: At an Inflection Point?�� Upgrading BKC to Buy from Hold. BKC shares have underperformed the market by ~60% over the past year. While the stock has bounced a bit recently, we see room for further upside from here as sales and margins remain well below cyclical peaks and as investors may begin to seek out cheaper names that can still benefit from a recovering economy.
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Initial Jobless Claims 457K vs. 455K consensus; prior 462K
Feb CPI MoM 0.0% vs. +0.1% consensus
Feb core CPI MoM +0.1% vs. +0.1% consensus
Continuing Claims 4579K vs. 4522K consensus; prior revised to 4567K from 4558K -
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.06%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.01%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.20%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.40%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.25%
Venemaa MICEX +0.62%
Poola WIG -0.31%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.95%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.25%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.14%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.07%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.25%
Tai Set 50 -0.98%
India Sensex 30 +0.17% -
Navigating Choppy Waters
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/18/2010 8:49 AM EDT
It is always better to have no ideas than false ones; to believe nothing, than to believe what is wrong.
-- Thomas Jefferson
By almost any statistical measure, the market continues to be extremely overbought. There are all sorts of indications that we are very overdue for a rest of some sort. For example, according to Sentimentrader.com, over 20% of all stocks are now at new highs for only the seventh time in the last 45 years.
We all know how strong this market has been lately, so we don't really need to keep pointing it out. Our challenge is finding a way to navigate these unusual conditions. It has simply been dead wrong to keep trying to anticipate a top. The great temptation to do so is certainly understandable. There are plenty of statistics showing that it is a pretty good bet that we'll see some selling pretty soon, but that has been the case for weeks now, and it has proven to be very costly to bet against the bulls.
What has worked best is just staying long and forgetting all the bearish arguments and complaints. Having no idea about what this market will do has been far better than focusing on all the bearish arguments against it.
If you have a longer-term time frame, it has been much easier to navigate this market, because you don't worry as much about corrections. However, if you are a shorter-term trader, then there is little choice but to lock in some gains, as they have grown so fast. It simply isn't prudent to stay as bullish today as you might have been a couple of weeks ago.
Understandably, the bulls scoff at anyone who has hesitated about fully embracing this market. In retrospect, unwavering optimism has been the winning approach, but it becomes more and more dangerous as an investing approach with each day we go up without a rest.
As I've been saying, the only way I see of playing this market lately is to stick with the trend as long as you can, but keep watching for signs of weakness. There really has been nothing in the price action to indicate that we are ready to collapse suddenly. Other than setting a number or records for strength, the market is doing nothing that warrants extreme bearishness.
This is not an easy market to navigate if you are at all concerned about protecting profits and it is even more difficult if you trying to put new money to work. I continue to suggest you just stay very short-term bullish and keep stops very tight. Loading up with new buys is far too risky, but you can't try to call a top either.
Having no idea about how to approach this market is far better than fighting it. We just need to keep hunting for opportunities each day. Eventually, market conditions will be shaken up and it will be a little easier, but in the meantime, we'll continue to be open minded and very flexible.
Early indications are about flat. There were a few good earnings reports overnight and overseas markets are mostly mixed.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: STRI +3.8%, GES +2.5% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Lazard), NKE +1.6% (also upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital)... Select metals/mining stocks showing strength: HMY +1.9%, NGD +1.8% (New Gold Cerro San Pedro mine receives explosives permit and resumes full operations), SLW +1.2%, GLD +0.6%... Other news: ETRM +3.6% (extends neuroblocking technology research and development collaboration), DPTR +2.9% (announces the signing of a non-binding letter of intent to sell a 37.5% interest in its Vega Area assets), SPWRA +2.3% (to build 1-megawatt solar power system for Yolo County), DD +1.9% (still checking), GSK +1.9% (traded higher overseas), TEVA +1.8% (to acquire ratiopharm for an enterprise value of EUR3.625 bln; transaction is expected to be earnings accretive within three quarters after closing), KB +1.7% (still checking), FUQI +1.2% (modestly rebounding from yesterday's 6+ point drop), JCG +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GVA +0.9% (in joint venture, awarded $542 mln World Trade Center contract)... Analyst comments: WNC +9.8% (initiated with a Buy at Sterne Agee), BKC +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), BRCM +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), GLW +1.2% (upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), STO +0.5% (Goldman upgrades to Buy from Neutral),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: WPCS -10.3%, MLHR -5.2%, VIP -4.7%, CLC -3.3%, FDX -2.0%, IHS -1.9%, ROST -1.6%... Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -4.9% (Greek PM says need firmer rescue plan from eurozone - AP), AIB -2.1%, RBS -1.6%, ING -1.5%, HBC -1.0%, CS -1.0%, BCS -1.0%... Other news: SASR -8.7% (priced a public offering of 6.5 mln shares of common stock at $13.50/share for gross proceeds of approx $87,750,000), JTX -4.9% (files its 10-Q; provides investor update on RAL program), TSL -4.7% (follow-on public offering of 7,900,000 American Depositary Shares), ELN -2.9% and BIIB -1.8% (Now 42 cases of brain infection in Tysabri patients - DJ), OTTR -2.8% (files for $75 mln common share offering)... Analyst comments: ATHN -4.5% (downgraded to Underperform at Oppenheimer), LSI -2.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), IPXL -2.0% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill), ARIA -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus), APC -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard), CHK -0.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard). -
Üks intervjuu, kus Dumas Lombard'ist soovitab Saksamaal eurotsoonist lahkuda - link siin.
Tundub üpriski naljakas soovitus, arvestades, et Saksamaa keskpankuril Weberil on reaalne võimalus ECB eesotsas istuv Trichet varsti välja vahetada.
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Feb Leading Indicators +0.1% vs. +0.1% consensus
March Philly Fed 18.9 vs. 18.0 consensus; prior 17.6 -
Makro ootustele vastav, kohati paremgi. Turud on selle valguses kergelt plussis, kuid suuri liikumisi ei ole.
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Hästi naljakas soovitus, arvestades et Saksamaa huvides suuresti see eurotsoon ju toimibki. Miks Saksa peaks tahtma minna tagasi aega kus ta enda valuuta on tugev, aga ümbritsevatel peamistel turgudel nõrk ning seetõttu eksport väga valuutakurssidest sõltuv?
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Saksamaa võiks oma valuuta siis Kreeka omaga siduda ja oleksid häppid.
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Üldiselt on viimasel ajal majandusalaste täiega segast peksvate seisukohtade avaldamine keskmisest popimaks läinud... Keegi Saksamaa finantsilisele panusele eurosse nagu ei mõtlekski?
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mõelgem suurelt, lahkuda mitte ainult eurotsoonist, vaid ka Euroopast - näiteks Okeaaniasse
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Euro on praegu dollari vastu kiiresti nõrgenemas ning päevaseks muutuseks juba -0.8%. USA indeksid püsivad dollari tugevnemisele vaatamata veel plusspoolel.
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Turul levimas kuulujutud discount window intresside järjekordsest tõstmisest juba täna õhtul. Fed ei kommenteeri.
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Kui nii peaks minema, siis sellisel juhul jääb arusaamatuks, miks ei oleks seda võinud teha teisipäeval, kui intressimäära otsus teatavaks tehti...
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Germany may back joint EU-IMF bailout of Greece, official says - WSJ
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Turg üritab stabiliseeruda, müük hetkeks maha võetud aga paistab, et siit tehakse veel üks jalg alla.
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US House Majority Leader Hoyer says will pass health insurance reform on Sunday - Reuters
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mõelgem suurelt, lahkuda mitte ainult eurotsoonist, vaid ka Euroopast - näiteks Okeaaniasse
Heh, Sa nüüd mõtlesid, et tulid enda arust lõpp originaalsele mõttele, aga võta näpust - helged pead on ka selle peale juba mõelnud:
"Kreeka ametiühinguaktivistid leiavad, et on saabunud aeg pageda Euroopa Liidust ja eurotsoonist. Küsimus: kuhu? „Meile on tarvis teisi alliansse – riikidega, kus on progressiivsemad arengumudelid. Näiteks Kuuba", oletab Iota Tavulari."
http://forex.delfi.ee/est/News/NewsView?id=769
:P -
Jutt nagu 1. aprillil.
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Tore näha, et kreeklased üritavad endiselt hardballi mängida. PM nõuab Euroopa Liidult nädala jooksul abipaketi ära formuleerimist, vastasel juhul ähvardab IMF-i poole pöörduda (ei usu elu sees, et kreeklased ka tegelikult IMF-i stiilis abi tahavad).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a8gB0DOOXg.A&pos=1 -
Tund aega tagasi võeti müük pealt ja nüüd ilma käibeta korralikult ülespoole tiksutud. Kas selleks korraks kõik?
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PCYC on liikuma hakanud...mida spetsialistid arvavad...äkki oleks aeg siseneda?
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Apple has sold hundreds of thousands of iPads on pre-order, sources say - WSJ
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Palm prelim ($0.61) vs ($0.42) First Call consensus; revs $366 mln vs $316.19 mln First Call consensus
