Börsipäev 19. märts - Investeerimine - Foorum - LHV finantsportaal

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Börsipäev 19. märts

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  • USAst täna mingeid olulisemaid makrosündmusi tulemas ei ole. Täna on tegu kuu kolmandaga reedega, mis tähendab, et tegu on optsioonireedega. USA tähtsamate indeksite futuurid on eelturul nulli lähedal, nafta on ca -0.7% @ $81.60.
  • Mis CHK toimub? Kas on mingeid uudiseid tulnud, et aktsia päris korralikult on langenud?
  • Bloombergis on täna ilmunud Föderaalreservi diskontomäära teemaline artikkel. Väike kokkuvõte sellest Briefingu vahendusel:

    Bloomberg.com reports the Federal Reserve may increase the discount rate, charged on direct loans to banks, before the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on April 28, economists said. "It's going to happen at some point," said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase. "Whether it's today, whether it's next week or next month is hard to say."... "Another increase in the discount rate could be coming soon," Laurence Meyer, a former Fed governor who is now vice chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers in Washington, said in a March 15 briefing. "The case for doing it sooner rather than later is clear- cut," Meyer said. "The sooner the next increase comes, the easier it will be to convince market participants that discount rate decisions at this point are all about liquidity policy and have nothing to do with monetary policy."
  • Palm raporteeris eile oma kolmanda kvartali tulemused, teenides kolme kuuga 0.61 dollarit kahjumit aktsia kohta, mis osutus 19 sendi võrra konsensuse ootustest suuremaks. Kuigi müügitulu oli pea neli korda kõrgem mullusest numbrist, paljastab raport, et ettevõttel on raskusi juhtida iPhone'de ja Blackberry'de kõrval tähelepanu oma toodetele. Lõppenud kvartalis müüdi edasimüüjatele ja kauplustele 960 000 telefoni ehk 23% enam võrreldes sellele eelnenud kvartaliga, kuid tarbijad ostsid vaid 408 000 telefoni ehk 29% vähem. Apple müüs näiteks viimases kvartalis 8.7 miljonit iPhone'i. Kuigi tegevjuht tunnistas nõrka kvartalit, usub ta jätkuvalt firma potentsiaali. Seevastu analüüsimajad kärbivad hoolega hinnasihte. Aktsia kaupleb eelturul 15% miinuses. 

    Palm downgraded to Sell from Hold at Morgan Joseph; tgt $0 (5.65 ) 

  • Marek9,

    Chesapeake Energy (CHK) näol on tegu paratamatult volatiilselt liikuva aktsiaga ning olen seda korduvalt ka öelnud. Viimase aja nõrkuse taga on olnud koos kevade saabumisega oluliselt kukkunud maagaasi hind ning mitme analüüsimaja pikaajalise nii-öelda õiglase maagaasihinna prognooside allapoole tõmbamine. Seetõttu on CHK viimasel ajal saanud ka analüüsimajade poolt soovituste alandamisi. Näiteks Lazard langetas oma ostusoovituse 'hoia' peale eile, Morgan Stanley tegi seda 15. märtsil.

    Kuid leidub jätkuvalt analüüsimaju, kes ettevõtte odavat valuatsiooni kiidavad ning ka tänagi on JPM nimetanud Chesapeake Energy üheks atraktiivseks ostuideeks 25-ettevõttelises nimekirjas.
  • varsti turul uus väärtpaber kullasektoris kauplejatele - ABG IPO:

    Barrick Gold announces pricing of African Barrick Gold plc IPO. Co announced the pricing of the initial public offering of African Barrick Gold plc ("ABG"), a new company whose equity will be admitted to the Official List of the Financial Services Authority and to trading on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. An offer price of GBP 5.75 per ordinary share has been set and the net proceeds of the offering are expected to be approximately $834 mln, which will be paid to Barrick. ABG is selling approximately 101 mln ordinary shares in the offering, or about 25% of its equity and Barrick will retain an interest in approximately 303 mln ordinary shares, or about 75% of the equity of ABG (assuming the over-allotment option is not exercised). In addition, an over-allotment option of up to approximately 10.1 mln ordinary shares, representing about 10% of the offer size has been granted, exercisable for a period of up to 30 days from the pricing of the offering. Based on the offer price, the market capitalization of ABG immediately following the offering will be approximately $3.55 billion. ABG has an initial cash balance of approximately $280 mln. The offering is expected to close on or about March 24, 2010.
  • USA indeksite futuurid jätkuvalt nulli lähedal.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +0.40%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.49%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.66%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -0.09%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +0.75%
    Venemaa MICEX -0.39%
    Poola WIG -0.61%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.75%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.19%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.71%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.71%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.62%
    Tai Set 50 +2.20%
    India Sensex 30 +0.34%

  • Buy-and-Hold Has Its Day in the Sun
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    3/19/2010 8:37 AM EDT

    Like warmed-up cabbage served at each repast,
    The repetition kills the wretch at last.
    -- Juvenal

    Our endless rally showed a few minor signs of weakness on Thursday but there still is no notable weakness to suggest that market players are ready to start locking in some gains. We just keep on ticking steadily higher with no pullbacks and no consolidation. Market players don't seem to have a worry in the world. Why should they, when the major indices have pulled back more than 1% just once in the last month or so?

    It is an extremely difficult market to trade because there is so little volatility and few good entry points, but the belief propagated by the media that it is fantastic when the market acts like this makes it even more frustrating.

    I believe that the media primarily sees their target audience as buy-and-hold, mutual fund investors. From that standpoint, the current market action is picture-perfect. Nothing could be better than just going straight up day after day. You don't need to make any hard decisions as the gains just steadily pile up.

    After what happened to buy-and-hold, mutual fund investors in 2008 and 2009, they were due for market action like this -- if we gain 40% more from here, they will actually be almost back to even.

    The market rewards different investing and trading styles at different times, and now is one of those times when a more passive, highly optimistic approach has worked. Active trading has been underperforming because there simply isn't enough volatility to offer up opportunities.

    I've been a bit of a broken record lately with my commentary because things have been so unchanging for so long. The only workable approach for traders right now is to respect the trend and stick with very-short-term long-side trades. More anticipatory traders keep on trying to call a top, but that has been a recipe for disaster in an extended market that just keeps becoming more extended.

    Overseas markets were mostly up and we have mild action in the premarket. The health care battle is likely to dominate the news again, but it looks like it is just a matter of time before the Democrats pass the thing. One piece of good news that I found is that the 3.9% tax on stock gains, interest, dividends and rents is not scheduled to kick in until 2013. There is little chance we'll ever rid ourselves of this tax once it's in place -- in fact, it's more likely it'll expand -- but at least we won't have to contend with it for a couple years.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: POL +9.4%, LYG +9.1%, ICXT +0.7%... Select financial related names showing strength boosted by LYG guidance: IRE +4.9%, AIB +4.4%, RBS +4.3%, UBS +2.3%... Other news: NXY +5.1% (announces significant discovery at Appomattox in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico), Q +3.8% (Cramer makes positive comments), SOMX +3.8% (continued strength following yesterday's FDA approval), CERN +2.8% (will replace BJ Services in the S&P 500 index), BIDU +2.4% (trading higher following reports that Google is planning to close China operations in April), BSX +2.0% (announces FDA advisory panel unanimously recommends expanded indication for Boston Scientific's heart failure devices based on MADIT-CRT trial), CTEL +1.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), G +0.7% (priced a 33.6 mln share common stock offering, by selling shareholders--up from the original 28 mln share offering--at $15/share)... Analyst comments: BBY +2.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), PGR +1.0% (upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at BofA/Merrill).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PALM -18.9% (also Kaufman downgrades to Sell from Hold, Morgan Joseph downgrades to Sell from Hold), ADUS -12.4%, TISI -10.5%, SPWRA -9.9% (also completes accounting investigation), CTAS -0.7%... Select solar names ticking lower following SPWRA results: ASTI -5.8%, CSIQ -1.7%, TSL -1.5% (announces pricing of follow-on public offering of 7.9 mln American Depositary Shares at $20.25/ADS), JASO -1.3%, FSLR -1.1%, STP -1.0%... Other news: ITRN -7.5% (trading ex dividend), HT -6.6% (commences public offering of 19 mln common shares of beneficial interest), NLST -5.4% (announces pricing of common stock offering, an increase of 33% over the previously announced offering size), THRX -3.3% (announces pricing of 7.5 mln share public offering of common stock at $11.50/share), OXGN -3.3% (announces going concern opinion on its audited financial statements for 2009), CVGI -2.7% (announces pricing of 3.8 mln shares of common stock at $6.25/share), HRP -2.7% (prices 30,000,000 share offering at $7.25), BALT -1.9% (Cramer makes negative comments on MadMoney), SB -1.9% (announces that its public offering of 9 mln shares of common stock was priced at $7.00/share), GOOG -1.5% (to close China operations in April according report- DJ), STAN -1.3% (light volume; announces offering of common stock by selling stockholders; sale of these shares represents ~3.76% of the current shares outstanding)... Analyst comments: WFT -1.9% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), SYNA -1.4% (downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer), DTV -1.4% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), FFIV -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at BofA/Merrill), GTE -1.0% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).
  • Palm Placed on Death Watch


    down target 0 on ikka nii kole, et siit peaks sõitu korralikult tulema veel
  • Fitch says Negative Outlook Remains for U.S. Health Insurer & Managed Care Sectors
  • FDIC's Bair, on CNBC, says bank failures will probably peak in Q3
  • Senate Banking spokeswoman says committee will remove financial reform provision flagged by FDIC Chairman as allowing "backdoor bailouts" - Reuters
  • Barney Frank, on CNBC, says can reduce proprietary trading by looking at volume done; says a bank that does high volume or volatile trading is almost certainly not doing it for clients
  • Kommentaar RealMoney.com alt:

    *Normally, the morning after an expiration of this magnitude tends to be mirror image in the opposite direction.
    *The reaction to the health care bill, however, can be argued in either direction.
    *I would not rule out a mixed market reaction as well.

    Ehk siis inimkeeli loen mina siit välja järgmist: "Esmaspäeval võib turg tõusta, langeda või ka samaks jääda"

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