Börsipäev 23. märts
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Eilne päeva alguse miinus keerati juba esimestel kauplemisminutitel kiiresti ümber ning õhtu lõpuks kogusid indeksid lausa 0.5% kuni 0.9% tõusu, mis viis nad tagasi viimase 1.5 aasta tippude lähedale. Tugeva kannapöörde tegi ka nafta, mis suutis $79 pealt rallida ligi $82ni. Makroandmete poole pealt on USAst täna kell 16.00 oodata veebruarikuu olemasolevate eluasemete annualiseeritud müüginumbreid - ootuseks on sarnaselt jaanuarile ca 5.0 miljonit.
Kõigile LHV foorumikülastajatele siinkohal aga palve minu poolt. Oma magistritöö raames palun abi ca 10 minutilise aktsiaturgude teemalise küsitluse täitmisel. Tõsi, tavaliselt pooldame selliste küsitluste panemist 'vaba teema' alla, kuid kuna töö teema on seotud otseselt investeerimise ja aktsiaturgudega, kasutan moderaatori õigusi ning levitan oma küsitlust kuni märtsikuu lõpuni ka siinses börsipäeva foorumis. Link küsitlusele on siin. Palun kõigil, kel vähegi võimalik, selle täitmiseks 10 minutit eraldada. Suured tänud kõigile vastajatele!
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Oleks eeldanud, et lisaks tootluse % ja kapitali hinnale on ka suhe alginvesteeringu suuruse ja sellest tuleneva tootlikkuse nõude vahel küsimustikus välja toodud.
Nimelt on vaks vahet, kas miljonit kahekordistada või 100k.
muidu küsimustik selge ja kiire -
Bloombergist on täna võimalik kuulata ühte intervjuud, kus vaatluse all on Tai bahti viimase aja tugevus - link siin. Baht pole tugevnenud mitte ainult euro, vaid ka dollari suhtes.
Kui detsembri alguses maksis 1 Tai baht ca 0.31 Eesti krooni, siis nüüdseks on see tõusnud tasemele 0.36 Eesti krooni ehk nelja kuuga läbi teinud 16%lise ralli.
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Kreeklased ei väsi üllatamast... Kõigepealt võtavad võlgu nagu homset ei oleks. Siis - süüdistavad kapitaliste, hedgefonde, sakslasi ja spekulante. Nüüd aga tuleb välja, et kes on kõige suurem spekulant Kreeka riigivõla CDSidega? Hellenic Post Bank, milles omab kontrolli.... wait for it.............................wait... for it.............this is going to be good........wait for it.............Kreeka riik! :-D
Ahjaa - ja EUR muidugi on jälle nõrk. Ise lõpetasin USD riski maandamise jaanuari alguses. Paberil olen long AUD ja CAD alates novembrist. . -
Kuigi eile kinnitas Merriman Imax Corporationile (IMAX) antavat müügisoovitust, alustas ettevõtte katmist outperform soovituse ja $20lise hinnasihiga Barrington Research. IMAX on LHV Maailma Pro investeerimisidee.
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Nokia on viimasel ajal saanud hulgaliselt positiivset tähelepanu ning nii ka täna:
Nokia initiated with a Buy at Wunderlich (15.11). Wunderlich initiates NOK with a Buy saying they believe the rapid growth of mobile communications in less developed regions of the world is one of the two largest growth factors in technology. The other is the development of the mobile Internet, which will inevitably follow the growth of wireless communications overseas. Nokia leads by a wide margin overseas and they believe the company is well positioned to extend this role as the mobile Internet develops. -
Baidu Target Upped by Goldman Sachs to $675 from $575
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No decision on Greek aid at EU Summit, German govt source says - DJ
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USA indeksid alustavad tänast börsipäeva eilsete sulgumistasemete juurest.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.23%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.50%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0.49%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.72%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0.62%
Venemaa MICEX -0.26%
Poola WIG +0.81%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.47%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.26%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.70%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.49%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.12%
Tai Set 50 +1.46%
India Sensex 30 +0.23% -
Keep Tight Stops on Long Positions
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
3/23/2010 8:39 AM EDT
"If I had my life to live over, I would perhaps have more actual troubles but I'd have fewer imaginary ones."
-- Don Herold
The most fascinating thing about this market is how unworried and unconcerned it is about any possible negatives. Even the health care bill, which will be costly to the investor class and many businesses, couldn't generate anything more than a momentary pullback.
The combination of a major news event and extended market conditions was an ideal setup for some selling, but the dip-buyers were just too anxious to let it happen. They bought the weakness at the open on Monday, and we never looked back after that.
After that brief little blip on the health care bill, we are right back to where we were last Thursday as if nothing has happened. What is even more amazing is that the complacency is so thick that you could cut it with a knife. Many market players are wondering out loud what news are we likely to see that could change the mood of this market.
The market really has only two flaws right now. The first is that it is technically extended, and the second is that there isn't much worry or concern. Both of those are not insignificant, but they haven't mattered and it is impossible to time when they might matter.
We are walking the high wire, and there are only two ways to play it: We either try to anticipate a turning point or we stay with the trend until there is some clear price action that indicates that we are turning.
Trying to anticipate a top in this market definitely isn't working very well. The bears have been trying to call a turn for weeks now and now they are so far underwater, they are going to need a pretty big drop just to be back to even.
Sticking with the trend has been the way to go, but as we become more extended, it carries more and more risk. We have been on an amazing run for over a month now, and despite how it may feel right now, it isn't going to last forever.
The best approach I see for dealing with this market is to stick with the long side but be very watchful and keep tight stops on positions. It is possible that we will wake up to a big gap down one morning and suffer some painful losses, but if you keep on harvesting partial gains as we trend upward and don't chase things that are too extended, you should be able to keep the damage down.
Despite the way the indices look, this isn't an easy market in which to trade. It is great if you just buy and hold, but if you trade aggressively, it is tough, especially if your style is to look for turning points.
We are up a few ticks in pre-market trading, and overseas markets are mainly positive. The dollar is up again, and that has been a bit of a headwind for oil, gold and commodity-related names but hasn't hurt too much. The market continues to chug along without a care in the world.
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Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ISSI +15.2%, WAG +1.2%, PVH +1.0%... Select financial related names showing strength: AIB +3.7%, IRE +3.5%, C +1.0%... Select metals/mining names ticking higher: BHP +1.7%, BBL +1.3%, RTP +1.3%... Select mortgage insurers trading higher boosted by PMI news: PMI +11.5% (Freddie Mac approves PMI as an Eligible Mortgage Insurer), MTG +2.5%, RDN +2.4%... Other news: JSDA +25.0% (to explore unsolicited transaction proposal), DVAX +21.3% (reports positive findings from safety analysis of HEPLISAV), CNAM +21.2% (secures supply of 749,000 metric tons of Brazilian Manganese ore), BPAX +16.1% (announces additional positive Leukemia vaccine results and second FDA Orphan drug designation), MPAA +5.2% (Wynnefield urges Motorcar Parts of America Board to explore strategic alternatives), LPL +3.9% (gains on report of iPhone deal - Calgary Herald), PRGO +3.3% (acquires Infant Formula Manufacturer PBM Holdings for $808 Million), PAYX +3.1% (Paychex, Thomas Golisano, and others pay $32.2 ln on judgment affirmed by Court of Appeal), GGP +2.9% (pops $0.30 with Bloomberg reporting that Elliott, Paulson are considering investment in the co), ZLC +2.8% (light volume; considers financing deal with Sun Capital: Report - Reuters), SHOO +1.6% (light volume; Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), GLW +1.4% (still checking), NKE +0.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney)... Analyst comments: SQNM +11.5% ( upgraded to Buy from Hold at Lazard Capital), AMSC +4.8% (upgraded to Buy at Jefferies), BIDU +1.6% (upgraded to Buy at Kaufman), ALV +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform at Baird).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DEAR -22.8%, SCS -9.8%, KBH -3.7%, MPG -2.6%, ACGL -0.4%... Select financial names trading lower: CS -2.6%, RBS -1.8% (Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds told to boost lending - FT), HBC -1.2%... Other news: ONTY -40.4% (announces temporary suspension of Stimuvax clinical trials by Merck KGaA), XRA -9.4% (still checking), MEE -3.5% (announces offering of 8.5 mln shares common stock), NLY -2.7% (declared the first quarter 2010 common stock cash dividend of $0.65 per common share, down from $0.75 prior dividend), SOMX -2.7% (announces a 4 mln share common stock offering), VSAT -2.3% (filed for a mixed shelf offering for an indeterminate amount, announces 5.5 mln share common stock offering consisting of 2.5 mln shares by ViaSat and 3 mln shares by certain selling stockholders), TTM -2.1% (offers early conversion to note holders - Reuters.com), LINE -1.5% (announces acquisition of Antrim Shale Properties in Michigan for $330 mln, public offering of units and amended five-year $1.5 bln credit facility)... Analyst comments: ARAY -6.9% (downgraded to Sell at Soleil), SYNA -2.6% (downgraded to Hold at Needham), AFL -1.3% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), WSM -1.3% (downgraded to Hold at Citigroup), TS -1.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), LH -1.2% (downgraded to Hold at Deutsche). -
Väike lõik siia ka tänasest Goldman Sachsi note'ist BIDU hinnasihi kergitamise osas:
Implications
(1) We expect access from China to google.com.hk to be at best slow (given the intervening firewall) and at worst unavailable (given the government’s possible resistance to google.com.hk’s uncensored results).
(2) Past history suggests that slow access pushes some users to competing search engines (usually Baidu), and no access pushes most users away (again usually to Baidu—those consumers who choose Google do so because they like Google, not because they dislike Baidu).
(3) Depending how far the government blocks access, we estimate Baidu could capture 33%-75% of google.cn’s traffic, with the rest mostly moving to google.com.hk. Our new base case is that Baidu captures 50% of google.cn’s revenue, up from 10% previously; we raise our 2010E/2011E/ 2012E revenue and EPS by 10%-19%. Our new EPS estimates are $11.76/$19.86/$27.22 from $10.71/$16.72/$23.00 previously.
Valuation
We raise our six-month target price from $575 to $675 (DCF and PEG) to reflect users and advertisers shifting from google.cn to Baidu. At $675, Baidu would trade at 34X our new 2011E EPS and 26X 2011E EBITDA. -
Makro vastavalt ootustele:
February Existing Home Sales 5.02 mln vs 5.00 mln consensus; M/M Change -0.6% -
ECB document proposes new EU deficit rules after Goldman swap - Bloomberg
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Jälgin USA pangandust. Nii Citygroup kui ka Bank of America on viimasel ajal ikka hästi tõusnud. Õnneks oman.
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Citygrupiga teenis möni aasta tagasi ikka ropult raha 0.9sendilt töusis 5 dollarini ja seda päevadega.Kahjuks ei ostnud, plaanis oli. Kirun siiamaani tookordset otsust mitte osta
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Ja ka BAC-i müüsid maha.
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Investor Toomas ostis sada USA ravimitootja Mercki aktsiat hinnaga 38,34 dollarit aktsiast. Tehingutasu suuruseks tuli 19,02 dollarit.
Huvitav, mis teised foorumlasest sellest arvavad -
teised foorumlased
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$44 bln 2-year Note Auction: Yield 1.000% (expected 1.015%), Bid/Cover 3.00x (Prior 3.33x, 10-auction Avg 3.10x), Indirect Bidders 34.8% (Prior 53.6%, 10-auction Avg 47.1%)
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RXi Pharmaceuticals trading halted - news pending
RXi Pharmaceuticals announces $16.2 mln registered direct financing
Hetkel veel kauplemine peatatud! -
The Committee on Financial Services markup of the FHA Reform Act of 2010 scheduled for 2 p.m. on Thursday, March 25, will be postponed to a date and time to be announced later.
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San Francisco Fed's Yellen sees U.S. economic growth of 3.5 pct this year, 4.5 pct in 2011 - Reuters
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angelike,
arvan, et Toomas teeb küllaltki õigeid otsuseid. On suutnud raha kasvatada, õigel ajal istus kõrvuni rahas, ja ravimifirmad on pikas perspektiivis ikka head asjad.
Imestan, kuidas ta leiab üles aktsiad nii erinevatest sektoritest ja hajutada ka globaalselt. -
Mötlen Citygrupi peale, et soetada, aint viimasel nädalal on old üsna suur töus, kuigi mainiti midagi 7 dollari tasemest
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Ja kes omavad Usa aktsiaid, vöib ka mönuga dollari 8 prossast töusu portfelli juurde lisada,seega igati plussis
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Misasi on Citygrup?
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Cityparki holding
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Citigroup, Inc. (C)))))
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Mis sõna on misasi?
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mai tea :)
