Börsipäev 9. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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S&P500, mis esimestel minutitel vajus -0.6% punasesse, suutis päeva lõpuks tänu finantssektorile ja jaemüüjatele siiski 0.3% kõrgemal lõpetada, jõudes 0.5% kaugusele 52 nädala tipust.
Ka täna jääb makrokalender üsna õhukeseks, kui ainsana on laual veebruarikuu hulgimüügi varude muutus (kell 17.00).
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Kui jaanuaris tegi Saksamaa eksport korraliku kukkumise, siis veebruaris suudeti 5.1% rohkem eksportida võrreldes eelmise kuuga. Lisaks madalale võrdlusbaasile on sakslastele abiks ka Kreeka probleemide tõttu nõrgenev euro, mis suurendab välismaalt saadavaid tulusid ja teeb Saksa kaubad välismaalastele soodsamaks.
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Ja eelnevalt mainitud nõrgema valuuta soov on kindlasti laiem trend, mis on pärast kriisi tuntav kõikide suuremate riikide seas... see üks reaalne võimalus ka USA majanduse tasakaalustamiseks. Buttonwoodsis oli valuutade odavnemise trendist märtsis ka üks lugu:
ONCE upon a time, nations took pride in their strong currencies, seeing them as symbols of economic and political power. Nowadays it seems as if the foreign-exchange markets are home to a bunch of Charles Atlas’s 97-pound weaklings, all of them eager to have sand kicked in their faces.
Kel huvi, saab siit edasi lugeda.
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Kreeka börs alustas päeva küll korraliku tõusuga, kuid on hetkel tagasi miinuspoolele vajunud. Tundub, et turg ei taha enne rahuneda, kui EU/IMF täpsemalt oma abiplaanist rääkima hakkavad (defaulti ei usu pärast abi lubamist väga keegi). Siin näiteks Deutsche Banki kommentaar olukorrale:
Greek banks this week asking for assistance from their Government is ironic as they were the main buyer of last week's 7-year deal. So once the major and largest marginal buyer of stressed Greek Government debt require help themselves then one can see how the funding problem can become a viscous circle. So the Greece situation will likely need and in all probabilities get the required 'band-aid' that will allow it more time to address its problems. However this 'band-aid' may come with spreads wider than current levels.
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Longer-term we think these issues will continue to hit the market periodically and could cause major disruption to risk assets but for now there is a reason that Greece can widen without serious disruption to other risk assets even if we think some kind of execution/contagion risk should be priced in.
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: ABK +56.3%, RELL +6.6%, TTO +5.5% (light volume). Select financial related names showing strength: HBC +1.8%, C +1.8%, UBS +1.5%, CS +1.5%, RBS +1.3% (Blackstone, Wellcome Trust in joint bid for RBS branches, source says - DJ), KEY +1.3%, MS +1.2%.Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: GOLD +2.3%, GFI +1.4%, SLV +1.4%, AUY +1.2%, RTP +0.4% (Rio Tinto shifts to quarterly iron ore pricing - Financial Times).
Select mortgage insurer related names getting boost following ABK results: MTG +2.9%, PMI +2.5%, MBI +2.4%, AIG +1.8%, AGO +1.7%.
Select European drug names trading higher: NVS +1.7%, GSK +1.3%, SNY +1.0%.
Other news: PALM +9.2% (higher following reports that a Chinese website is speculating that HTC could acquire PALM), LIWA +7.8% (priced a ~3.72 mln share common stock offering at $8.05), FRO +4.3% (Bloomberg reports that Goldman said in note that it sees higher upside potential in Frontline), WNC +4.0% (still checking), TIVO +2.7% (still checking), TTM +2.5% (traded higher overseas), ACGY +2.1% (disclosed publication of materials for the 2010 Annual General Meeting), RDS.A +1.3% (still checking), CLX +1.2% (Clorox near deal to sell STP, Armor All, sources say - WSJ), BSX +0.9% (hires financial adviser to sell 2 units, according to sources - Reuters), AKS +0.7% (announces price increase for carbon steel products), CVX +0.4% (reported in its interim update that earnings for the first quarter 2010 are expected to be higher than in the fourth quarter 2009).
Analyst comments: DISH +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), JCP +3.5% (upgraded to Conviction Buy from Neutral at Goldman), CLF +2.6% (target raised to $105 from $85 at Deutsche Bank), STD +1.3% (initiated with a Buy at RBS ), CMI +1.2% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS ), TLB +0.4% (American Eagle removed, Talbots added to Top Picks List at FBR Capital), TXN +0.4% (initiated with an Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas).
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: JOEZ -9.3%, STZ -4.2%.Other news: NGLS -4.7% (filed for a mixed shelf offering for an indeterminate amount and announces secondary public offering of common units by a subsidiary of Targa Resources of 8 mln shares), CRZO -2.4% (announces new growth strategy in crude oil and liquids-rich plays and launches common offering of 2.5 mln shares), NBG -1.4% (No euro zone deal imminent on Greece terms, according to source - Reuters).
Analyst comments: ZLC -3.9% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil), SYNA -2.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Lazard Capital), MF -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ticonderoga), AEO -1.4% (American Eagle removed from Top Picks List at FBR Capital), CELG -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), AA -1.1% (downgrade to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), SATS -1.1% (downgraded to Sell from Buy at Citigroup), MGM -0.9% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Soleil).
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Euroopas täna vastupidine pilt eilsele, USA futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0.1% kõrgemal.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,83%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +1,19%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 +0,80%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,28%
Rootsi OMX 30 +0,48%
Venemaa MICEX +1,28%
Poola WIG +0,96%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0,32%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1,56%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0,86%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,58%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,22%
Tai Set 50 +0,76%
India Sensex 30 +1,23% -
Rev Shark: Don't Look for Justification of Good Price Action
04/09/2010 7:33 AMAn explanation of cause is not a justification by reason.
--C.S. LewisThere is no question that many market players have found this roaring rally to be difficult to embrace. As I've commented a number of times, I've never seen so little love for a market that is acting so well. While we have some very frothy action at times, we continue to have a large supply of skeptics and pessimism and little of the euphoria associated with straight-up market action.
At the heart of this phenomenon is that many investors simply don't believe that the strength is justified. It's not hard to understand why that may be the case: After the tremendous economic slump we experienced, how can we possibly believe that things are as good as the stock market seems to imply?
Retailers are a particularly good illustration of this dilemma. The action in that group suggests that consumers have money to burn, yet we all know that housing is still in a slump, unemployment is showing little improvement and our economic growth is tepid at best. Even when consumers were using the equity in their homes during the real estate bubble we never saw retailers act as well as they are now. Many market players find this very puzzling action, and they just become more puzzled and frustrated the longer it continues.
This inability to find a good justification for the very strong price action is part of the reason we keep on running. It is the proverbial "Wall of Worry" at work. The folks who don't trust the market action capitulate slowly and steadily as they grow frustrated with this market that never seems to pull back. They may not believe in the bullish case, but they aren't going to be left out of the party.
One of the hardest things for many market players to do is to embrace the price action when they don't think it is justified. That's what this market is asking of so many, and it is a very tough task -- especially after the economic crash and the pain that remains on Wall Street.
Don't dwell too much on the fundamental case -- focus instead on the technical action. Frankly I can't begin to justify strength in things like restaurants and retailers, yet I bought a few of them because the technical action in those sectors is just too strong. It might be totally unjustified action, but the power of momentum overwhelms the intellectual arguments.
A further complication to what seems like such unjustified action is how one-sided it has been. I've been complaining about the lack of volatility and good entry points for a while, and it still is the most challenging aspect of this market. I don't have too much of a problem going with the flow even if it don't believe it, but I can't be undisciplined about it and pay up for stocks that are too technically extended.
We have some strength to start the day once again. Overseas markets are up nicely as Greece is once again on the back burner. That situation is causing some weakness in the dollar, which is boosting the commodity sector and giving us a positive open. Don't forget that earnings start next week -- conditions are very likely to undergo some change in character.
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Hommikul mainitud valuutade odavnemise trendist on hea näide täna ka Poolast, kus keskpank on zlotti müümas, et selle kallinemist peatada. Esimeses kvartalis kallines zlott euro suhtes 6%, mis on viimase kuue aasta suurim tõus (täna tegi zlott viimaste kuude suurima languse). Poola majandusest kirjutasime pikemalt siin.
