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Börsipäev 13. aprill

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  • Sarnaselt eilsele on ka tänane päev makroandmete poole pealt võrdlemisi uudistevaene. Küll on aga tähelepanu tasapisi liikumas 2010. aasta 1. kvartali tulemustele. Alcoa (AA) poolt eile teatatud tulemused vastasid kasumi osas ootustele, kuid müügitulude osas jäid ca 6.7%ga alla. Järelturul oli aktsia kerges pooleprotsendilises miinuses, kuid aktsia liikumisel tasub silma täna kindlasti peal hoida, pärast seda, kui suuremad investorid on saanud aega tulemsute seedimiseks.

    Täna pärast turu sulgemist teatab oma numbrid Intel (INTC) ning sealt tulevad numbrid on turu jaoks juba väga olulised. Intelilt oodatakse EPSi $0.38 ning müügitulu $9.8 miljardit.
  • Tales from the Crypt, ehk Poola Rahvuspanga juhi enne surma kirjutatud arvamusartikkel Ft's. "With 38m people, Poland gained from having a relatively large and self-sufficient economy, and a financial system that is well-capitalised, profitable and resisted the temptation to diversify into exotic products". Muuhulgas ujuva valuutakursi eelistest kriisi pehmendamisel, sarnaseid kommentaare võib leida kindlasti Austraalia ja Rootsi kohta.
  • Nafta barrel on jätkamas viimaste päevade langust ning kaupleb aprilli tipust (86.8) -3.4% madalamal, kuigi Rahvusvaheline Energiaagentuur on täna pakkumas tõusuks veidike stiimulit ning tõstnud selle aasta globaalse nafta tarbimise prognoosi 100 000 barreli võrra  86.93 miljonile barrelile päevas, mis märgib uut rekordit. 2009. aastal oli tarbimine keskmiselt 84.93 miljonit barrelit päevas. 

  • Samas on Merrill Lynch väljas kommentaariga, et aasta lõpuks võib naftahind kerkida $100 alla. Samuti toob MLCO välja, et Hiina naftanõudlus võiks 2010. aastal kasvada 5% kuni 8%. Liiklusvahendite müük kasvas 2009. aastal Hiinas 45% ning 2010. aasta kasvuks prognoositakse veel täiendavad 25%.
  • Palmi aktsiasse on viimase nädalaga sisenenud rohkelt spekulatiivset raha, ootuses et ülevõtmine toimub ning pakkumine tehakse turuhinnast kõrgemal tasemel. Kaufman selles väga veendnud ei oleks ning leiab, et järgnevate kvartalite tegevuskahjumite ja konkurentsivõime tõstmiseks vajaminevate investeeringute tõttu võib oodatud take-overi asemel kujuneda sellest hoopis take-under ehk ülevõtu hind jääb praegusest tasemest madalamaks. Analüüsimaja säilitab müügisoovituse hinnasihiga 3 dollarit.
  • Üks võimalik Palmi ülevõtja on Huawei, kuid Reutersi andmetel ei ole läbirääkimised siiani tulemust andnud:

    Palm Inc. approached China's Huawei Technologies for acquisition talks, Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source. The report said Huawei was approached in mid-February but talks had not since moved forward. (marketwatch)

  • Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0.12%
    Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.05%
    Inglismaa FTSE 100 -0.15%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.41%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0.57%
    Venemaa MICEX +0.15%
    Poola WIG +0.01%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.81%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.16%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.03%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.02%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.22%
    Tai Set 50 N/A (börs suletud)
    India Sensex 30 -0.17%

  • Rev Shark: Warning Signs Everywhere
    04/13/2010 7:35 AM

        'Tis not the eating, nor 'tis not the drinking that is to be blamed, but the excess.
        -- John Selden

    Alcoa (AA - commentary - Trade Now) has kicked off earnings season with inline earnings and a revenue miss. The stock has a downgrade to "neutral" from UBS and is trading lower in the premarket. Alcoa generally doesn't have a major market impact, but earnings tonight from Intel (INTC - commentary - Trade Now) and on Thursday from Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) will give us a much better feel for the mood of this market.

    With the market continues its slow but steady drift upward, the conditions are very ripe for selling into the earnings news. I really would prefer to be less focused on looking for a pullback in this market, but it is hard not to given where we stand. While being bearish has certainly been a losing approach lately, it certainly isn't easy to be wildly bullish and load up with new buys.

    Market players keep looking for signs of a top and possible selling catalysts. This morning there is quite a bit of talk about how low-priced "junk" stocks like Fannie (FNM - commentary - Trade Now) and Freddie (FRE - commentary - Trade Now), Ambac (ABK - commentary - Trade Now) and Amcore Financial (AMFI - commentary - Trade Now) led the market yesterday. On my list of biggest gainers, 75% of them were priced under $10.

    Another thing that investors are talking about this morning is a euphoric Newsweek cover story about "How America pulled itself back from the brink -- and why it's destined to stay on top." This is the sort of contrary indicator that investors look for ever since an infamous Business Week cover story in August 1979 that proclaimed "The Death of Equities." That ended up being a pretty good bottom call and market players have questioned breathless cover stories ever since.

    It is quite easy to find warning signs like excessive speculation in low-priced stocks and highly bullish magazine covers, but until we actually see some real weakness there is little action for us to take. There is always interesting anecdotal evidence out there for both sides of the market battle but the price action is the final arbiter.

    Many traders are tired of this market action with the limited intraday volatility, the extended market conditions and the slow drift upward. While we can still find some good individual trades, it just isn't very easy to put more money into this market. I'm tired of pointing it out, but until we have a shakeup of some sort, there isn't much else to focus on.

    I suspect we are in for another day of choppy action as market players anticipate Intel's (INTC - commentary - Trade Now) report tonight. We have some early selling pressure as overseas markets were mostly negative. The dollar is mixed but gold and oil are down.

    No positions.

  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: TLB +4.9%, INFY +1.5%.

    Select mortgage insurer related names showing continued strength: ABK +8.4%, MBI +3.2%.

    Other news: MIPI +166.7% (Molecular Insight Pharmas' Onalta phase 2 data published in Journal of Clinical Oncology), ISIL +16.6% (light volume; HSR Waiting Period Expires for Intersil's Proposed Acquisition of Techwell by Intersil), EGT +13.0% (announced that it has entered into a Machine Participation Agreement with Grand Golden; also announces civil action complaint filed against the company), CPRX +8.5% (continued strength from yesterday's 100% surge higher), BSMD +5.3% (announces study of gynecologist-interventional radiologist referral relationships published in Journal of Minimally Invasive Gynecology), HK +3.3% (Kinder Morgan Energy Partners, LP to purchase 50% of Haynesville Shale midstream operations for $875 mln from Petrohawk Energy; Petrohawk Energy announces 340 mln barrel risked resource potential in Eagle Ford Shale), SUN +2.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MXIM +1.6% (to acquire Teridian for $315 mln), GSK +1.2% (still checking), CSIQ +0.7% (awarded contract offers for 176 MW (AC) of distributed solar power projects by Ontario Power Authority via Feed-in Tariff Program).

    Analyst comments: AONE +5.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), EXPE +4.5% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman; tgt raised to $31 from $25- also added to Americas Conviction Buy List), CROX +4.0% (upgraded to Overweight from Market Weight at Thomas Weisel), MTL +1.0% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Citigroup), FTR +1.0% (upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James), UNH +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Leerink), RDS.A +0.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS).

    Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: KTOS -9.7% (light volume), AA -1.0% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS).

    Other news: PALM -5.3% (Huawei approached by Palm for acquisition talks: Source - Reuters; also Kaufman said there is risk that acquisition deal could be a take-under), CODI -5.2% (announces 5.1 mln common share offering and a 1.3 mln share offering by a selling shareholder), MPW -5.2% (announces 24 mln common share offering; tender offer for 2011 exchangeable notes and syndication of new credit facility), IRE -4.1% (still checking for anything specific), GRMN -3.2% (trading ex dividend), EPD -2.8% (announces the commencement of a public offering of 11.5 mln common representing limited partner interests), ADC -1.9% (announces public offering of 1 mln shares of common stock), CF -1.4% (launches 10.8 mln common share offering).

    Analyst comments: KEY -3.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), PCLN -2.1% ( downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), RF -2.1% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), HOG -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), HBAN -1.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), MON -0.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Argus).

  • BofA Merrill Lynchi fondijuhtide viimasest küsitlusest selgub, et Kreeka võlaprobleemid peletavad jätkuvalt investoreid euroalast eemale:

    "As recently as five months ago investors regarded Europe as the most attractive play on global economic recovery. But with the Greek debt crisis Europe has become a no-go zone and asset allocators now view Japanese equities as a cleaner cyclical play,"

    Kreeka valitsuse võlakirjaoksjon läks täna igal juhul hästi, kuna EL ja IMF pakkusid Kreekale mõned päevad tagasi €45 miljardi euro eest laenu. Ilmselt mõjutab Kreeka teema ülejäänud riskivarade liikumist edasipidi vähem, kuid kuna kreeklastel on mai lõpuks vaja refinantseerida üle 10 miljardi euro väärtuses võlga, siis pinged nende jaoks ei ole veel kindlasti kadunud.

  • Geithner says a lot of home foreclosures still ahead, will be difficult problem to work through - Reuters
  • Dallas Fed wanted to raise discount rate to 1% in March, according to minutes - DJ

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