Börsipäev 27. aprill
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile õhtul ei suudetud USA börsidel tugevust hoida ja nõrkus kandus edasi ka Aasiasse ja Euroopasse. Hoolimata headest 1Q10 tulemustest teeb investoritele muret finantssektori reguleerimine, mille üle peetakse USAs tuliseid vaidlusi. Mõni nädal tagasi kirjutasime ka meie portaalis, et ilmselt on teema lähiajal kuumaks muutumas ja status quo säilimine finantssektoris on vähetõenäoline (loe pikemalt siit):
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Tähelepanu koondub täna USA makro osas Case-Schilleri indeksile (kell 16.00) ja tarbijausaldusele (kell 17.00). Viimane kerkis märtsis 46.4 punktilt 52.5 punktile, ületades 51 punktist ootust. Aprilliks prognoosib konsensus edasist paranemist 53.5 punktile.
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Pankadest on Goldman Sachs (GS) teinud pärast SECi süüdistusi järsu languse ja läheneb üsna olulisele tasemele 148 dollari juures. GSi jaoks on täna oluline, kuidas lähen nende selgituste andmine USA Senatis, mis algab meie aja järgi kl 17:00. GSi süüdistatakse, et pank seadis enda huvid klientidest kõrgemale ja müüs enne kriisi eskaleerumist klientidele tuletisinstrumente ning panustas ise samal ajal nende langusele. Sarnaseid tehinguid tegid ka paljud teised pangad ning seetõttu kogu sektori jaoks oluline, kuidas GS juhtum lahendatakse.
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Kes leiab lingi kus asi LIVEs üle kantakse, võiks siia panna: Maailma finantskriis - audio ja video
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Kui keegi arvab, et turud on liiga kallid ja juba eest ära tõusnud... siis Jon Markmani nägemus põrmustab kõik teie vaated. Nimelt Markman ütleb, et S&P500 võiks 2020. aastaks tõusta 3000 punktini (tähendaks iga aasta ca 10%list turu tõusu) ning mid-cap turuväärtusega ettevõtted võivad oma ajaloolisi tippe lüüa juba sellel suvel. Apple'i aktsia hinda nimetab ta 'naeruväärselt madalaks'. Link Markmaniga tehtud intervjuule on siin.
S&P 3000. Reflecting on financial history and last round of massive government stimulus in the early 1990s, after which the S&P rose five-fold, Markman says the S&P could hit 3000 by the end of the decade. Recalling "Something along those lines could happen again," he says.Follow the leaders.
So where to start now as an investor? Think leaders such as Apple (AAPL), which at 12 times projected 2011 earnings is trading at a "ridiculously low" valuation, Markman says. He also likes Boeing (BA), insurance players and regional banks. (Markman owns shares of Apple.)
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Hiina Shanghai A indeks kukkus täna pisut üle 2% ja tegi sellega indeksile uue madalaima taseme alates 2009. aasta oktoobrist. Väike graafik siia Bloombergi lehelt:
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Jätkuvalt hoiame silma peal ka tulemustehooajal. Suurem osa tänastest nimedest nüüdseks sisse kantud. Link
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Hiina börsidel juhivad langust kinnisvarasektori aktsiad, mis on eelmise aasta juuli tippudest rohkem kui 40% allapoole kukkunud! China Se Shang Prop indeks (siiani on sektor olnud hea juhtindikaator kogu börsi jaoks):
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February S&P Case/Shiller Composite-20 Y/Y +0.64% vs +1.10% consensus; prior revised to -0.73% from -0.70%
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SWI -14.3%, UIS -12.5%, NTY -12.2%, ZRAN -11.0%, IPCM -9.0% (light volume), FBP -8.6%, CBAK -7.8%, ELX -7.3%, WMS -4.2%, PCL -4.2% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), , ALV -4.1%, CX -3.7%, DAI -2.7%, BSX -2.0%, CNI -1.9% (also downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS), SANM -1.7%, BP -1.5%.Select financial related names showing weakness: FTBK -14.6% (pulling back from yesterday's 100% jump), NBG -7.8%, BBVA -4.1%, SNV -4.1% (filed for a mixed shelf offering for an indeterminate amount; announces $600 mln aggregate offering of common stock; announces ongoing elements of capital plan and announces rights plan), AIG -4.1% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Keefe, Bruyette), HBAN -2.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), IRE -3.3%, STD -3.0%, ING -2.9%, RBS -2.4%, HBC -2.2%, DB -1.9%, GS -1.2%, CS -0.6%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RTP -1.9%, BBL -1.9%, BHP -1.7%, MT -1.3%, GG -1.0%.
Select drug related names showing weakness: AZN -2.3%, GSK -2.2%, SNY -1.9%.
Other news: OTE -7.3% (still checking), YMI -7.2% (announces controlled equity offering of up to 7.75 mln shares), AKS -1.5% (filed for a debt securities shelf offering for an indeterminate amount), MTL -1.2% (announces offering of preferred shares and preferred ADS by certain selling shareholders), OTEX -1.1% (Open Text announces acquisition of Shares of Burntsand Inc).
Analyst comments: MSO -1.8% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Morgan Joseph), GOOG -0.8% (removed from Conviciton Buy List at Goldman).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EL +11.8%, LXK +9.5%, TLAB +8.3%, PPDI +7.6% (also confirms Takeda receives NDA approval of NESINA from Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare; upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman ), CAVM +7.6%, DSW +6.4%, CMI +5.2%, HMA +5.2%, MMM +4.4%, CIT +4.4%, MSPD +4.3%, VECO +3.8%, ENTG +3.6%, WU +3.6%, SUPG +3.6% (light volume), VECO +3.0%, DD +2.6%, CRUS +2.5%, RCII +2.3%, AAN +2.3%, RSH +2.3%, X +1.8%.Other news: NEXM +80.0% (receives FDA clearance for PrevOnco phase 2 study as first-line therapy for HCC), BSPM +13.4% (received new advertising approval from Shaanxi State Food and Drug Administration for marketing Xin Aoxing Oleanolic Acid Capsules), DVAX +9.7% (reports positive data on universal flu vaccine candidate), WWIN +8.9% (prices 1.38 mln common shares at $6.10/share ), APPY +8.0% (still checking), ANX +2.2% (ADVENTRX Pharma to resubmit ANX-530 NDA in 4Q10 ), PRGN +1.4% (entered into shipbuilding contracts with a Chinese shipyard), WFT +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: PLCE +1.7% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), MRVL +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), IGT +1.5% (initiated with a Buy at KeyBanc Capital Mkts), TASR +1.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), RDS.A +0.5% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan),
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RBC Capital tõstab enne homseid kvartalitulemusi Baidu hinnasihi 594 dollarilt 739 dollarile, uskudes et Google'i lahkumise arvelt suurenev turuosa Hiinas peaks hakkama tulemusi tugevamalt mõjutama. Credit Suisse seevastu langetab soovituse neutraalselt "underperform" peale, kuid kergitab hinnasihi 423 dollarilt 486 dollarile.
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Rev Shark: You Must Balance Patience and Decisiveness
04/27/2010 7:32 AMPatience is a necessary ingredient of genius.
-- Benjamin DisraeliSuccessful traders are both patient and quick to act. Quite often the most effective approach to the market is to simply sit and wait while holdings do what they are suppose to do or setups develop. However, there will always come a time when patience should be thrown out the window and we should move quickly and decisively to reposition ourselves.
Shifting from patience to action and back again is not an easy task. Many traders want constant action, so they overtrade and never give their positions enough time to really pay off. On the other hand, many investors are so used to simply holding on to positions and doing nothing that they fail to act at all as market conditions change.
Finding the balance between patience and action is not easy, and it is even more difficult to time such a shift in behavior at just the right moment.
I bring this up this morning because this market has rewarded patience for a while now. If you have simply trusted in the bullish view of this market and held on to some key positions, you have likely done well. However, if you have been constantly looking for a market reversal, it has been much more challenging. Acting quickly to adopt a bearish posture has been a disaster.
While anticipating a top in this market has been a terrible strategy, we still have to guard against being lulled into too great a state of inaction. Eventually a time will come when market conditions will change and we need to adjust our positioning. Many market players have been looking for a turning point for weeks now without success, but that doesn't mean we should just become buy-and-hold investors and never bother to sell again.
After some weakness yesterday and soft indications this morning, the bears are likely to be hopeful once again that a shift in trend is starting to develop, but it is still too early to embrace that idea. This market has been so strong for so long, it's going to take more than few days of selling to kill it. That doesn't mean we don't protect our gains and tighten up stops, but there is no technical reason to be overly bearish.
While we don't want to be overly anticipatory and look for this market to suddenly collapse, we also don't want to be lulled into complacency and be unable to act when conditions really do start to change. Patience has been the winning approach for far longer than seems reasonable, but the time for action will eventually come, and we have to be mentally prepared to shift our approach.
The best thing we can do to be ready for a market shift is to cultivate the conflict between patience and decisive action. If you are aware of the benefits of both courses of action and realize you will have to change your approach at some point, it'll be much easier to do so when the time is right.
Asian and European stocks acted poorly overnight. Greece is an issue that won't go away and China is struggling with governmental attempts to cool the economy. Shanghai was hit hard last night and closed at a seven-month low.
We have some good earnings this morning from 3M (MMM - commentary - Trade Now) and Ford (F - commentary - Trade Now) but the Goldman (GS - commentary - Trade Now) hearing today is causing some negative sentiment. The dollar is also stronger and that is causing a little pressure in the oil and commodity names.
No positions.
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.84%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.78%
Inglismaa FTSE 100 -1.37%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.57%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.41%
Venemaa MICEX -1.56%
Poola WIG -1.02%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +0.42%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.51%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -2.07%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -2.40%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.30%
Tai Set 50 -0.38%
India Sensex 30 -0.31% -
tarbijausaldus toetamas turgu
April Consumer Confidence 57.9 vs 53.5 consensus, March 52.5 -
GSi esindajad raskustes tunnistuste andmisega ja müügisurve turul on kasvama.
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Major indices drop to fresh session lows following reports that S&P cuts Greece to junk.
Portugal also cut to A- by S&P. -
Tom Graffi kommentaar RealMoney all näitab olukorra tõsidust. Nimelt 'prügi' tasemel võlakirjareiting ei sobi enam ECB'le laenu andmise puhul tagatiseks:
Tom Graff
Greek bonds
4/27/2010 11:34 AM EDT
Just to point out, this means that Greek debt is no longer eligible collateral at the ECB. Would mean lots of bank sellers there. -
GSi esindajad raskustes tunnistuste andmisega ja müügisurve turul on kasvama.
how come GS aktsia siis plussis on? -
Valuutaturul on esimene reaktsioon reintingute langetamiste peale üsna tagasihoidlik:
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SideKick, laiema müügisurve taga kindlasti uudised Euroopast (ei vaadanud alguses, mis siin toimub). Kuid GS on ka pärast küsimuste vooru algamist kukkunud 156 dollari pealt 152 dollarile.
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Tegelikult peaksid Kreeka pangad jätkuvalt saama laenu....nii kaua kui vähemalt ühe reitinguagentuuri hinnang tagatisnõuetele vastab: Lõik ECB kriteeriumitest:
ECAI credit assessment: At least one credit
assessment from an accepted ECAI (as set
out in Section 6.3.4) for the issue (or, in its
absence, for the issuer) must comply with
the Eurosystem’s credit quality threshold. -
Mikk, ma niisama :)
GSi esindajad raskustes tunnistuste andmisega - eks ta ole jah, et ühel targal on raske sajale lollile korraga vastata :) -
Doug Kass RealMoney.com'ist on täna hea naljaga maha saanud :D
"Oh my, Goldman Sachs (GS) stock is green today.
The firm must be short Greece!" -
Kaua see kreeka jama võib veel kesta ?
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See on alles algamas.
