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Börsipäev 4. mai

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Majandusuudistest ootame täna kell 17.00 märtsikuu tehaste tellimuste muutust (ootus -0.2%) ja märtsikuu pending home sales'i (ootus +5.0%). Jätkuvalt uuendame meie tulemuste tabelit (link). Tõsi, suurem osa mõjukaid ettevõtteid on oma numbrid turule juba teatanud ning fookus on seetõttu liikumas riikide fiskaalprobleemidele (Kreeka, Portugal, Hispaania), naftareostusele Mehhiko Lahes ja viimasel ajal kasvanud närvilistele päevastele liikumistele aktsiaturgudel.

  • Hiina Shanghai A indeks jätkab kukkumist ning on täna praeguseks hetkeks -1.2% punases. See tähendab sellele indeksile madalaimat kauplemistaset alates 2009. aasta septembrist. 2009. aasta augusti alguses tehtud tipust on praeguseks hetkeks langetud ca 18% ning maagiline 20% piir, millest maast alates hakatakse aktsiaturu liikumist meedias nimetama 'karuturuks', pole enam kaugel.
  • Arreteeriti Times Square'i pommipanija, naturaliseeritud USA kodanik Pakistanist (mida võiski arvata).
    Arrest Made in Times Square Bomb Case

    Muide, kas keegi viitsiks TEO bid-ask bookist eemaldada sildi "halted". See on seal olnud alates juhatuse koosolekust, kuid kauplemine on vahepeal taastatud, seega ei ole silt vajalik.
  • Erinevalt FED-st ja ECB-st jääb Austraalia keskpangal majanduse stimuleerimisel mänguruum järjest väiksemaks, sest inflatsioon näib kiirenevat arvatust hoogsamalt. Kui kolme kuu taguste kommentaaride kohaselt pidanuks käesoleva aasta hinnatõus jääma Austraalias keskpanga targetisse (2-3%), siis täna intressimäära 25 baaspunkti võrra tõstes (4.5%le) nenditi, et inflatsioon tõotab aasta lõpus olla pigem 3% lähedal.
  • Üsna huvitav NYTimes graafik deebitoride ja kreeditoride suhetest Euroopas, mille põhjal on hästi näha, kuivõrd olulisem on Saksamaa, Prantsusmaa ja Suubritannia jaoks muret tunda Hispaania, Portugali, Iirimaa ja Itaalia käekäigu pärast.
  • Mitmed kemikaalide ja puhastusvahendite tootjad on Mehhiko lahe naftaresotuse tõttu näidanud viimasel ajal tugevust, kuna lekke likvideerimine omab potentsiaalset mõju nende kasumitele. Eile esinese CNBC eetris Nalco tegevjuht, kes teatas, et BP on saanud loa kasutada nende imepärast kemikaali, mis lagundab nafta piisavalt väikesteks osakesteks, et bakterid suudaksid seda süüa. Nalco aktsia hüppas selle peale 17%, ent tuli päeva lõpus madalamale. Link videole. 

  • BP Plc (BP) sõnul ei ole suudetud jätkuvalt nafta voolamise mahtu Mehhiko lahte peatada. Hetkel on naftat juba 12 päeva merre voolanud (ca 200 000 gallonit päevas). Kui katastroof oleks võrdne kuulsa Exxon Valdezi juhtumiga, peaks sellise tempoga naftat merre voolama ca 43 päeva (Exxon maksis reostuse eest $4.3 miljardit + mainekahjustus, mida on raske numbritesse panna). BP plaanib lähipäevadel nafta merre voolamise peatada, kuid meetodiga, mida varem pole sügaval meres proovitud:

    BP hopes to deploy a giant, 40-foot steel funnel within the next few days to attempt to trap much of the leaking oil at its source. While the technique has worked in shallow water, it has never been done under a mile of ocean water. The company also has begun to drill a relief well to take the pressure off the current leak, but that process could take months. (marketwatch)

    BP on plahvatuse pärast naftaplatvormil kaotanud miljardeid oma turuväärtusest. Londonis kaupleva BP aktsia ettevaatav 2011 P/E on 7.5x, mis on 30% soodsam sektori keskmisest (oodatav dividenditootlus jääb ca 6% juurde):

  • Kauppalehti:

    ti 13:34 Felix Abba ostaa Kalevin suklaatehtaan

  • Valuutaturul on usk Kreeka päästeplaani edusse kadumas ja euro on taas korraliku müügisurve all. EUR/USD on eelmise nädala põhjadest läbi kukkunud ning liikunud 1.3100 tasemest allapoole.
  • Aasia ja Euroopa on päeva alustanud korralikus miinuses ning ka USA futuurid on eilse ralli järel oluliselt allapoole tulnud. S&P500 indeksi futuur on hetkel -0.9%, Nasdaq100 futuur -1.05% ja nafta -1.8%.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -1.20%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.62%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1.31%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -2.91%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -1.59%
    Venemaa MICEX -1.33%
    Poola WIG -1.70%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 N/A (börs suletud)
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.23%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.23%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.99%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.15%
    Tai Set 50 +4.85%
    India Sensex 30 -1.43%

  • Protect Gains in This Period of Uncertainty
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    5/4/2010 8:28 AM EDT

    Always remember that the most important thing in a good marriage is not happiness, but stability.
    -- Juvenal Urbino, in Gabriel Garcia Marquez's Love in the Time of Cholera

    The pattern of alternating days of strength and weakness is continuing this morning. After a strong day yesterday, all overseas markets are in the red as concerns linger over the European sovereign debt issue. There are reports that the 110-billion-euro bailout of Greece won't be enough to cover all of the country's needs. Worries are also growing over which country will be the next to need a bailout; Spain is on the brink and is a much larger economy than Greece.

    Asia is seeing worries that the Chinese economy remains overheated and that steps will be taken to cool things off. The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates for the sixth time since October in order to cool inflationary pressure caused by Chinese demand for natural resources.

    As these concerns have bubbled up, U.S. indices have seen a sharp increase in volatility over the past week. We have had two sharp dips and two sharp bounces and are set for a weak open today. The streak of uninterrupted days of gains has clearly been broken over the past week.

    But the bulls remain unimpressed by recent signs of a change in market character and are confident that we will continue on a relentless trajectory higher. Every dip in this market has been a buying opportunity for over a year, so why should anything change at this point? The negatives will soon be forgotten once again -- if you aren't buying weakness, then you haven't learned a thing about this market.

    The bears, who are exhausted as they keep hoping and praying for some sort of top, aren't particularly convincing, once again telling us that this time it is different and we really are going to see a market turn. We have been hearing predictions of a market top for so long it is hard to take the bears very seriously, regardless of how good their arguments may be. They will eventually be right and we'll have some sustained downside, but the bears themselves will probably be very surprised when it does happen.

    As I commented in my closing post yesterday, the increased volatility in this market over the past week is a sign the uncertainty is increasing. This uncertainty raises the chances that the market is ready for a rest, but if you're looking for a total collapse, it's unlikely to occur.

    There are cracks forming in the uptrend, and a high level of defense is warranted. We've yet to see whether this choppiness morphs into a more severe correction, but there are enough warnings signs already that a cautious stance is prudent. Nothing is more unproductive in investing and trading than giving back gains. Stay focused on keeping your portfolio as close as possible to its highs. If you can avoid having to recoup losses, you will outperform.
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: NTRI +15.7%, PWAV +13.4% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Merriman), IPXL +12.5%, SNCR +9.9% (light volume), ANN +6.8%, IVAC +5.4%, PSEM +5.1%, LLEN +4.8%, CTSH +4.0%, MCK +4.0%, PFE +2.2%, CGNX +1.4%, MA +1.0%.

    M&A news: LIHR +5.9% (Lihir Gold and Newcrest to merge), IDC +0.7% (Interactive Data to be acquired by Silver Lake and Warburg Pincus for $33.86/share in cash).

    Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: RTP +4.2%, GOLD +2.0%, .

    Other news: MSON +31.0% (HIFU receives unanimous approval to continue the clinical investigation of high intensity focused ultrasound for treatment of prostate cancer ), EPCT +5.2% (earns $2.0 mln milestone payment from Meda AB for the first commercial shipment of Ceplene to a major country in the European Union), SPRD +4.9% (still checking), SLXP +4.7% (XIFAXAN 550 mg (rifaximin) demonstrated acute and sustained relief of non-constipation irritable bowel syndrome symptoms; data from target 1&2 presented at Digestive Disease Week), ACUR +3.9% (King Pharms and ACUR Announce Plans to Submit an NDA for Acurox Tablets Without Niacin), CNXT +2.2% (retires $106.7 mln of 4% convertible subordinated notes due 2026), FRX +1.4% (Ironwood and Forest present positive linaclotide results from two pivotal phase 3 trials in patients with chronic constipation), SNN +0.9% (light volume; New data reinforces the proven safety and effectiveness of the BIRMINGHAM HIP Resurfacing System).

    Analyst comments: SNV +2.1% (upgrded to Buy at Citigroup).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: LF -15.7%, TNL -11.2%, RDN -10.8%, SHOO -7.5%, N -7.3% (light volume), ALVR -7.3%, EMR -6.3%, BZH -6.0%, HOLX -5.6% (also downgraded to Hold at Brean Murray, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), SGMO -5.4% (light volume), PBI -5.1%, GLRE -3.9% (light volume), BOFL -3.8%, UBS -3.0%, GVA -2.5%, TXRH -2.5%, BZ -2.4% (light volume), VVUS -2.1%, NLY -2.1%, SFSF -2.1% (also announced it will acquire CubeTree for $20 mln in Success Factors stock), VOLC -1.6%, RAX -1.3%.

    Select financial related names showing weakness: CS -7.4% (trading ex dividend), LYG -5.8%, ING -5.4%, NBG -5.0%, STD -5.0%, BBVA -4.1%, RBS -4.0%, BCS -3.2%, UBS -2.8%, DB -2.8%, HBC -2.0%, BAC -0.9%, C -0.9%, . Select mortgage/insurer related names lower following RDN reuslts: ABK -7.8%, PMI -4.4%, MTG -3.8%, MBI -3.0%

    Select telecom names trading lower: PT -2.4%, FTE -2.0%, VOD -2.1%, TEF -2.0%, DT -2.0%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: RDS.A -2.5%, TOT -2.4%, E -2.3%, PBR -1.2%.

    Other news: PEI -6.6% (commenced a public offering of 8 mln shares of common stock), QCOR -6.3% (co held conference call to discuss the results of the FDA Panel meeting last night), FSS -4.7% (announced it will offer ~$75 mln of common stock), GHL -3.2% (will sell 3 mln shares of common stock in an underwritten agreement).

    Analyst comments: TRLG -4.9% (downgraded to Hold at Lazard), KDN -4.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), SMG -2.2% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), DRE -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at RW Baird), CLX -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies).
  • Kotecha Credit Agricole'st arvab, et surve eurole on lähiajal vaid tõusmas ning ootab euro ja dollari suhte jõudmist paari kuu jooksul juba tasemele €1=$1.25. Link intervjuule siin. 

  • Buffett'i parimad killud viimaselt Buffetpalooza'lt...

    1. “I would make Paul Volcker look like a sissy.” Charlie on financial reform.

    2. “If you give people unlimited credit, they will go plumb crazy. And they did.” Charlie on reform again.

    3. “It would be both unfair and stupid. I don’t think the government would be that crazy.” Charlie on reform that would require posting collateral on existing derivative contracts.

    4. “I don’t know how this movie ends. And generally I don’t go to movies like that.” Warren on the debt crisis in Greece and whether he is looking for opportunities in Europe.

    5. “There are plenty of CEOs I’d like to see gone in America, but Lloyd Blankfein is not one of them.” Charlie on the head of Goldman Sachs.

    6. “I knew enough to lend them money but not enough to buy the equity.” Warren on buying debt, not shares, in Harley Davidson during the financial crisis.

    7. “We celebrate wealth only when it is fairly won.” Charlie on excessive compensation.

    8. “We are deliberately seeking big losses in a single year. We want to be so rich that the loss is just a blip long-term.” Charlie on Berkshire’s reinsurance business.

    9. “Trend is not destiny.” Warren.

    10. “The politicians are not behaving better as the newspapers are getting weaker.” Charlie on one of the side effects of a declining newspaper industry.

    11. “I developed more courage once I learned I could handle hardship. Maybe you should get your feet wet in failure.” Charlie to an investor nervous about the economic outlook.

    12. “That is a stunningly stupid idea.” Charlie on the economics of ethanol.
  • Tehaste tellimused +1.3% vs oodatud -0.2% ning pending home sales +5.3% vs oodatud +5.0%.
  • Kreeka 2-aastaste võlakirjade tulusus on täna taas tõusma hakanud ning kerkinud 10% pealt 14% peale. Hispaania 2-aastase võlakirja tulusus on tõusnud 1.95% pealt 2.20% peale ning Portugali oma 3.6% pealt 4.3% peale.
  • Ah? Kes tahaks 2,2% intressiga Hispaania võlga osta???
  • Kes tahaks üldse PIS võlakirju osta praeguste intressidega (Kreeka jätame välja, kuna seal intressid juba päris kõrgel) ?
  • Moody's ja Fitch hindavad Hispaaniat jätkuvalt kolme A-ga ja see näib vähemalt praegu pakkuvat kaitset laenukulude drastilise kallinemise eest. Kes siis ei tahaks kõrgeima krediidikvaliteediga riigile laenu anda :)
  • Pole ju ka midagi imestada. Kui IMF sees, eks jõuavad nemadki oma reitinguid kärpida.
  • Tere. Olen TTÜ majandusteaduskonna tudeng ja oleks vaja teie abi uurimustöö tegemisel. Palun neid, kes on opsioonidega kokku puutunud, täita järgnev küsitlus.
    Ette tänades.
  • martin2010, "... optsioonidega ......".
    Inglise keeles on see termin ka "option".

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