Börsipäev 7. mai
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Eilne hullus aktsiaturgudel, millest kirjutasin ka artikli pealkirjaga "Aktsiaturgudel oli eile krahh!", on täna peamiseks kõneteemaks. NASDAQi börs on juba teatanud, et tehingud, kus hind hälbis varasemast konsolideeritud tasemest üle 60%, lähevad tühistamisele (nt Accenture aktsiaga kaubeldi ju ka ainult $0.01 peal - seega need lähevad õnneks tühistamisele). Paraku tekitas eilne paanika olukordi, kus väga paljud aktsiad kukkusid 20%, 30%, 40% ning põrkasid seejärel üles tagasi - need hiigellangused aga tühistamisele ei lähe. Igaljuhul börsiliikumiste järelevaatajatel on siin väga palju peamurdmist ning püüame nende otsustel silma peal hoida.
Eelturg on USAs hetkel eilsete sulgumishindade juures. Ainult euro on dollari vastu täna pisut langust tagasi võtmas ning tõusnud hetkel ca +0.6%. Tänase päeva muudab põnevaks veel Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 avalikustatav USA aprillikuu tööjõuraport, kust oodatakse ca 187 000 töökoha lisandumist, mis kinnitaks teesi, et USA majandus on taastumas.
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Hmm... huvitav, mida Whitney Houston sellest eilsest krahhist arvab?
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Tänase päeva peauudis peaks tulema ikkagi Saksast e. kuidas läheb parlamendis Kreeka abipaketi hääletus.
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Panen siia ka lingi meie Q1 10 viimasele tulemustetabelile (link siin). Aktsiate järgmise päeva protsentuaalse muutuse tulp on väga punaseks muutunud.
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PragCapi vahendusel üsna huvitav graafik. Eilne kukkumine on jätnud oma 50 päeva keskmisest kõrgemal kauplema 26% aktsiatest, mis eelneva kolme kukkumise põhjal annaks hea ostusignaali, ent pikemat ajahorisonti vaadates näeme, kuidas süveneval hirmul on võime seda osakaalu veelgi madalamale tuua.
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Igasuguseid pilte ka kohe üles leiate! :-))
Ei tea, mida täna USA turg teeb. Kas unustatakse eilne või oli eilne vaid eelhoiatus suuremaks kukkumiseks? On ju peale Kreeka ka teisi vahemereäärseid riike.
Kas tehniline analüüs ennustab midagi? -
Faber jagamas Bloombergi vahendusel kommetaare eilsest turuliikumisest ja EKP kohtumisest. Ütleb, et SP500 ülemüüdus sama suur nagu pärast 1987.a krahhi, millele järgnes märkimisväärne põrge, kuid ei tõtta uusi tippe selleks aastaks prognoosima. Aktsiaid, mis eile hetkeks nulli lähedale kukkusid, ei ole tema meelest anomaalia, vaid pikemas perspektiivis juhtub see kogu finantssektoriga. EKP osas leiab, et täiendava likviidsuse lisamine muutub möödapääsmatuks.
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Aktsiaid, mis eile hetkeks nulli lähedale kukkusid, ei ole tema meelest anomaalia, vaid pikemas perspektiivis juhtub see kogu finantssektoriga.
ilmselt varsti ennustab Marc turgude langust üle 100% - sümptomid juba viitavad sellele -
Jälle õigus. Astrofüüsikud juba ammu ennustavad, et pikemas perspektiivis planeet Maa hävib. Discount that!
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Henno Viires, yeah, kui kõrgelt suure hooga kukub siis põrutab innertsiga läbi nulli sügavale miinustesse.
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Kuuldavasti on Islandi vulkaan taas pisut aktiviseerunud. Hetkel ei ole küll midagi hullu, kuid kui olukord peaks pöörduma ja taevas Euroopa kohal taas lukku minema, siis tasuks jälgida Prantsusmaa börsil kauplevat Eurotunneli aktsiat sümboliga GET.
Viimase 5 päeva liikumine:
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Kena nali küll:
http://ap3.ee/article/2010/05/07/USA_borsipaanika_tekitas_Citigroupi_maakleri_viga -
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/panic-and-loathing-sp-500-pits
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Citi on välja toonud S&P500 liikumised pärast rohkem kui -3% langust:
Citi hinnangul on riskid hetkel liiga kõrged ja pigem soovitatakse rallisid müüa:
In view of the recovery in corporate confidence and general investor sentiment from a year ago, it seems improbable that investors will feel emboldened to step up now, particularly when European economic challenges and a stronger dollar could crimp 2H10 earnings. Indeed, selling on rallies could be more pronounced than buying on the dips.
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täpsemalt siis ütleb Citi, et praegu pole mõtet müüa - oodake rallit ja müüge selle käigus
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Panen siia veel T. Levkovichi (Citi) analüüsist ühe lõigu:
Anecdotally, we have definitely picked up the sense of a renewed “buy on dips” mentality among our client base, with 85% of investors in our April survey sayingt hat they were no longer worried about a double-dip recession — it is not in our forecast either, but we were struck by the plurality of that view. Retail moneymarket holdings of investors as a percent of the Wilshire 5000 have declined back to levels seen in mid-2006 (see Figure 12), and liquid asset ratios for fund managers have also come down sharply as of the recently reported March data(see Figure 13). In our opinion, these are becoming more worrying signs rather than the kind of signals that imbue confidence in building up new positions.
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290 000 uut töökohta - tugevalt üle ootuste:
April Nonfarm Payrolls 290K vs 187K consensus, prior revised to 230K from 162K.
April Unemployment Rate 9.9% vs 9.7% consensus. -
Saksaama parlamendi alamkoda on Kreeka päästepaketi heaks kiitnud ja nüüd liigub hääletusele ülemkotta. Suure tõenäosusega see ka ratifitseeritakse, kuid Kreeka yieldid liiguvad ikka tuttavat teedpidi ülespoole.
2a võlakirja intress:
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Kusjuures mulle meeldib see, et Saksa parlamendis oli paketi pooldajaid proportsionaalselt enam kui Kreeka parlamendis. Eks see näitab kummal seda abipaketti rohkem vaja on :-)
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Mis AAPli optsioonidega tehti vahepeal? yahoo näitab mingi ime asju. Vaadake nii pute kui calle, see pole eriti loogiline, mis toimub?
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USA turud üritavad toibuda eilsest päevasisesest suurest müügilainest ning isegi oodatust oluliselt paremad tööjõuraporti numbrid pole suutnud märkimisväärset ostuhuvi eelturul veel tekitada. Hirm, et midagi eilselaadset võiks korduda ka täna, on siiski jätkuvalt õhus. Hetkel S&P500 indeksi ja Nasdaq100 futuurid eilsete sulgumishindade juures ning nafta ca -1% @ $76.4 barrelist.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.59%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -1.15%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0.30%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.55%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.16%
Venemaa MICEX -2.42%
Poola WIG -1.22%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -3.10%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.06%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.87%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -3.21%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1.87%
Tai Set 50 -2.38%
India Sensex 30 -1.29% -
So ... What Now?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/7/2010 8:28 AM EDT
Credibility is like virginity -- once you lose it, you can never get it back.
-- Unknown
The biggest problem for the market after the 700-point intraday swing in the Dow Jones on Thursday is that confidence has been badly shaken. There was obviously a major malfunction somewhere, but The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that no one is exactly sure what happened. The prevailing theory is that high-frequency trading firms, which make up about two-thirds of the market's volume, may have helped accelerate the skid as their programs reacted to the momentum.
No matter what caused the gut-wrenching swings, the action yesterday is likely to scare away investors who already dealt with similar instability and volatility in the meltdown in 2008-2009. Many of them lost trust and never returned to the market, and now those who did will have second thoughts.
Even without this glitch in the system, the market was already under substantial pressure. Scenes of rioting in Greece and concerns that the European sovereign debt problems were accelerating created much uncertainty, and sellers were steadily streaming for the exits.
Technically the dip-buyers, who have continuously been successfully buying any weakness, suddenly found themselves trapped and many panic-sold to escape. Unfortunately, action like yesterday's renders the charts useless to some degree. Typically a huge swoon like we saw will result in a quick bounce but then we roll back over and eventually retest the panic lows as stuck longs look for exits. That is a very long way to go, and it is going to be miserable for the bulls if that scenario plays out.
The big question -- what do we do now? There is no doubt that the character of the market has made a dramatic shift. It's possible that we just shrug it off and see another quick recovery and move back to the highs, but that's a very poor bet. Markets that break down like this one have don't typically recover without a lot of work. The present situation is even worse because we don't have much good technical support. We went up in almost a straight line for so long that we never had time to consolidate and form good areas of support.
I'll be looking for the downside pressure to pick up after a bounce. I would not be in any hurry to build long-term positions at this point. In fact, I would be more inclined to look for exits into strength. Once the market calms down and we start to stabilize, then we can slowly build some positions, but the risk to the downside at this point is too great to ignore.
We have a little bounce in the early going and the jobs data are going to move us. There should be good daytrading volatility, but if you don't have a time frame of just a few hours, the better strategy is to stand aside and wait for better clarity.
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Briefing.com:
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: COHN +37.8%, NCT +19.4%, NANO +7.0%, CIM +5.5%, STEC +5.2%, MELI +2.7%, AIG +2.6%, SNTS +2.6%, LLNW +2.0% (light volume).
M&A news: SXE +27.4% (CGI Group to acquire Stanley - for $37.50/share), GGP +2.3% (Simon Property Group proposes to acquire General Growth for $6.5 bln or $20.00/share).
Select financial related names showing rebounding: STD +4.1%, CS +3.8%, BBVA +3.4%, ING +2.2%, FITB +2.1%, DB +2.0%, HBC +1.8%, C +1.5%, UBS +1.4%, GS +1.3%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: BHP +4.4%, RTP +4.3%, BBL +3.8%, MT +2.4%, VALE +1.4%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: E +2.8%, REP +1.7%, OXY +1.5%, STO +1.0%.
Other news: QCOR +12.3% (discloses that the Advisory Committee voted 22 to 1 that the Company has provided substantial evidence of effectiveness for H.P. Acthar Gel), AVII +9.9% (AVI BioPharma and Collaborators Publish Data From Preclinical Studies Demonstrating the Antimicrobial Efficacy of PMO Oligomers ), RDN +4.0% (still checking), TIBX +3.9% (will replace Brink's Home Security Holdings in the S&P MidCap 400 index), EGO +3.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), .
Analyst comments: PMI +4.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), ABB +3.4% (initiated with a Buy at ING Group), RDN +1.7% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), AA +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance/SSS: AVNW -10.7%, MEND -10.0%, CENT -10.0%, RWC -9.1%, SONE -8.5%, COGT -8.4%, JDSU -7.7%, BEE -7.5%, QSFT -7.3%, HAIN -7.3% (also downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital ), UNTD -5.8%, ANF -5.7%, OSUR -5.6%, EXM -5.2%, FRE -4.9%, TGT -4.2%, ENP -4.2% (light volume), DDS -4.1%, GPS -3.6%, ROST -3.5%, BMC -3.4%, CBS -3.1%, CBS -3.1%, HOTT -2.2%, AEO -2.1%, KSS -2.0%, TJX -1.6%.
Select financial related names showing weakness: NBG -5.5%, DB -4.2%, ING -2.7%, BCS -2.7%, HBC -2.4%, RBS -1.6%, CS -1.5%, LYG -1.1%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: AU -1.4%, BHP -1.3%, VALE -1.2%, RTP -1.1%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: TOT -2.2%, REP -2.1%, E -2.0%, RDS.A -1.5%
Other news: ALU -10.6% (still checking for anything specific), TEF -4.8% (trading ex dividend), IMGN -5.6% (announces proposed public offering of common stock).
Analyst comments: ATW -1.9% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James ), HLS -0.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo). -
Barabas
See ilmselt eilse mataka järelkaja mis lõik enamuse optsioonihindasid sassi, St vaata eilse börsipäeva teemasse postisin sinna eile eksisteerinud myygi ja ostu hinnad :) -
Võiks chatis arutada huvitavaid aegu...olgu need neetud :D
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Mis toimub üldiselt, müüakse nigu kõike, isegi kulda. Kes kurat tahab praegu olla desperately in the cash ?
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Ja kuradi hea küsimus on see miks kuradipärast GS plussis on ?
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Veel parem küsimus miks yahoo keeldub endiselt optsioonide hindasid näitamast
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Barabas, näitab küll aga poolvigaselt :)
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Police are evacuating Time Square because of a suspicious package
