Börsipäev 10. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Euroopa Liidu ametnikud on nädalavahetusel kõvasti tööd teinud ning kokku pannud/panemas laenumehhanismi, mis võib ulatuda ca €650 miljardi euroni. Tegu on päris agressiivsete sammudega Kreeka probleemide edasilevimise peatamiseks ning hetkel on euro dollari vastu kauplemas +1.4% (tasemel €1=$1.292) vs reedene sulgumishind.
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500 BEUR
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USA futuurituru avamise hetkel on S&P500 indeksi futuur +1.8% ja Nasdaq100 futuur samuti +1.8%.
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CNBC räägib isegi 600 BEURist:
"European Union finance ministers are trying to reach agreement on a compromise 600-billion-euro ($805 billion) mechanism to prevent Greece's debt crisis causing turmoil in other euro zone states, EU sources said on Sunday."..."loan guarantees by euro zone countries worth 440 billion euros, a stabilization fund worth 60 billion euros and a 100 billion euro top-up of International Monetary Fund loans."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37052269 -
Tegemist on tänapäeva sõjaga.Rikkamad riiigid ikestavad võlakoorma kaudu vaesemaid. Pankade aktsiad peaksid langema, kuna nende turgu võetakse ära.
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Nicolas Sarkozyl oli eelmisel nädalal tõsi taga, kui ta enne nädalavahetuse kohtumist spekulante hoiatas, öeldes et EU minstrid on valmis kaitsma euroala iga hinna eest. Laenugarantiidest ja krediidist koosneva kogupaketi suuruseks kujunes 750 miljardit eurot, millest 250 miljardit tuleb IMFlt (pakett on lisaks Kreeka 110 miljardile eurole). Peale selle nõustus Euroopa Keskpank astuma pretsedentitu sammu ning ostma pisteliselt avaliku- ja erasektori võlakirjasid, et takistada laenukulude tõusu. Täiendavalt taaskäivitati mitmed kriisiaegsed likviidsusmeetmed, mis peaksid parandama odava raha kättesaadavust. USA futuurid praegusel hetkel kauplemas juba 2,4% kuni 2,8% kõrgemal ja EUR/USD on samuti teinud põrke 1,29 juurde.
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Euroopas ka päev üsna võimsa tõusuga algamas....Stoxx 50 futuur hetkel 6% kõrgemal
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Ühes aktsiaturgudega tegi kogu tooraineturg (va kuld) eelmisel nädalal läbi märkimisväärse korrektsiooni: nafta -13%, vask -7%, nikkel -14%, kuld seevastu rallis viie kuu kõrgtasemele 1200 USD juude vaatamata dollari tugevnemisele. Euroopa Liidu ja IMF-i abipakett on pannud raha uuesti spekulatiivsematessse varaklassidesse liikuma ja vähendanud huvi kulla vastu. Nafta kaupleb +2.8%, vask +2%, kuld -1%
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Huvitav, Sarkozil polnud aega selle laenupaketi tõttu nadalavahetusel isegi Moskvasse sõita, aga Merkel oli kohal.
Kas te teate, kas ka demokraatlikud riigid korraldavad selliseid sõjaväparaade, kus ka kogu sõjaväetehnika väljas oleks? -
EUR/USD +2.4% ja tasemel €1=$1.305. S&P500 ja Nasdaq100 futuur +4.5%, Saksamaa DAX +4.2%.
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Sarkozil polnud enam vaja natsismi tappa, Merkelil aga küll.
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750 miljardi eurone pakett oli täpselt see, mida investorid Lõuna-Euroopa võlakirjaturgudel kuulda tahtsidki.
Kreeka valitsuse 2a võlakirja yield:
Hispaania 2a yield:
Portugali 2a yield:
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Jätkuvalt kahtlustatakse, et neljapäevase languse taga oli kauplemisviga. MIljon või miljard, mis seal vahet? Samas ajalooliselt ei ole miljoni ja miljardi segiajamine nii suurt langust toonud:
Bear Stearns hits “B”
Oct. 2, 2002In what appeared to be a fat finger error, a Bear Stearns trader who intended to place a sell for $4 million placed an order for $4 billion instead. The erroneous trade occurred at 3:40 p.m., sending U.S. markets into a tailspin on a day when stocks had been trading lower. The Dow fell by 183 points to hit a day low of 7697 before recovering a bit and closing at 7756.
5 Trading Errors That Shook the Markets - Investing - Stocks - SmartMoney.com
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Euroopas on täna toimunud väga võimas ralli ning suuremad indeksid on plussis 4% kuni 6%. Kreeka börs on tõusnud ca 10% ning Hispaania kogunisti 12%. USA futuurid on hetkel kauplemas +4% juures.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +4.66%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +8.27%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +4.61%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +12.24%
Rootsi OMX 30 +5.57%
Venemaa MICEX N/A (börs suletud)
Poola WIG +4.35%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1.60%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +2.54%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.39%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.01%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +2.49%
Tai Set 50 +1.52%
India Sensex 30 +3.35% -
Gigamedia langes kuni 2 dollarini toopäev, ai ai kus oleks ka naksand mönuga tüki, matrix oli must kiirem))))
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Inimene ikka arvutitele vastu ei saa, a küll tuleb see päev kui saab))))
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Chase Strength or Wait for Weakness?
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/10/2010 8:12 AM EDT
"The future is bound to surprise us, but we don't have to be dumbfounded."
--Kenneth Boulding
A near-trillion-dollar bailout of the euro by the E.U. has us blasting higher to start week. While many market players were looking for some sort of aid package to rescue Greece, few anticipated a comprehensive and massive program to shore up the euro and prepare for rescue of other countries with sovereign debt issues.
On Friday, many were concerned that the E.U. would have difficulty even finalizing a package for just Greece, so the news of agreement over such a huge plan has caught many by surprise. If early indications hold, we will have the largest gains of the year.
The big question now is whether this is the start of yet again another big V-shaped move back up to new highs. So far, we are set to recoup a big portion of last week's loss, but will all the worries and concerns that weighed on the market now be forgotten? Is the uptrend that looked dead last week back on? Is it time to load up again and ride the train to new highs?
There are no easy answers here. The market did a superb job of punishing bulls that stayed in too long last week, and now it is frustrating the cautious folks who took stops and moved into cash last week.
It should come as no surprise that this big move occurs over the weekend and provides no easy entry points. A very large chunk of the gains since the lows in March 2009 have occurred on Mondays, and much of that was in the gap up opens on Monday mornings. If you exclude Monday action from this market, the gains are significantly smaller.
While that is an interesting statistic, it doesn't help us very much in dealing with this big gap up. Our choices here are pretty limited. We can chase this massive move and hope that it keeps going, or we stay patient and hope to find some good entries on pullbacks.
One approach many traders use is to wait for an hour or so and then do some buying if the market makes an intraday high. The thinking is that a new high after the first hour shows that momentum is building and the risk of a gap and fade open has passed.
A lot of market players are very out of position this morning, and some are going to panic buy. We all know about this market's propensity for V-shaped bounces back to the highs, so there will be those who are willing to chase this strength just so they aren't left behind.
I'm not going to pretend to know what this market is going to do from here. Obviously, very few market players are well positioned for this big whipsaw, so we need to see how the mood develops after the initial spike up open. Early pullbacks are likely to be bought as underinvested bulls try to put money to work, but it is the action later in the day that will provide the best insight into the health of the market.
I'm sitting with a very heavy level of cash, and my game plan is to say focused on individual stocks that I favor and to look for entries after the initial frenzy subsides. Most of the charts are a mess after last week, and the gap up open this morning is going to give us some very odd formations. There wouldn't be any great technical setups this morning, but the market could easily keep on running.
Keep your emotions in check, and don't act rashly if you holding a high level of cash. Chasing this huge open could work, but it isn't the best strategy for the prudent trader to employ. The market will calm down fairly fast and then we can make more rational decisions about the action to take. Keep an open mind and be ready to move as the action evolves.
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Briefing.com:
Ülespoole avanevad:
Many names are seeing early premarket strength with the futures pointing to sharply higher open...
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOL +13.5%, HRBN +13.3%, CAGC +10.7%, DYN +10.1%, GSI +9.7%, NVAX +8.1% (light volume), TSN +7.8% (light volume), ENER +5.4%, BR +5.0% (light volume), LPX +1.9%, AOB +1.6%, PSYS +1.4%, MCD +1.3% .
Select financial related names rebounding sharply boosted by news of Greek bailout plan: AIB +25.4%, ING +22.0%, STD +21.1%, STD +21.1%, IRE +20.4%, BBVA +19.2%, LYG +18.8%, BCS +17.5%, RBS +17.3%, MBI +13.4%, UBS +12.3%, CS +11.1%, HBC +8.8%, C +7.5%, BAC +6.9%, MS +6.3%, AIG +5.9%, GS +4.2%, NTRS +3.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), PNC +3.8% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel).
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +11.4%, RTP +10.2%, SLT +9.8%, BHP +8.1%, BBL +8.0%, PAL +7.6%, SWC +6.8%, AA +5.0%, NGG +3.7% (agrees to $442 mln rate hike to purchase Cape Wind power), GOLD +3.3%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: REP +13.0% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at HBSC), E +4.6%, RDS.A +3.3%, XOM +2.5%, BP +2.1% (updates GOM oil spill response in 6-K; upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Berstein), .
Select drug/pharma related names trading higher: SNY +7.8%, NVS +3.9% (FDA accepts Novartis vaccines' sBLA to expand indication of Menveo to children 2-10 years of age ), GSK +3.3% (GlaxoSmithKline statement on FDA advisory Committee Meeting on Rotavirus Vaccines), ...
Other news: SPWRA +9.4% (announces $75 mln loan commitment from IFC, a member of the World Bank; ), BDSI +8.9% (announces approval of ONSOLIS in Canada), XCO +7.3% (announces agreement with BG Group for joint development of Appalachian assets), YONG +5.8% (begins construction of new production facility; Cap ex for the new facility is expected to be $15 mln to $20 mln ), PG +2.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: NUS +18.6% (upgraded to Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), TSTC +11.6% (initiated with a Buy at Roth), CX +11.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), EGLE +6.7% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan), BA +5.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman- added to Conviction Buy list), CF +5.0% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital), PBCT +3.8% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette), YHOO +3.7% (upgraded to Positive from Neutral at Susquehanna), WAG +2.5% (initiated with a Buy at Lazard).
Allapoole avanevad:
With futures pointing to sharply higher open very few names are trading lower premarket...
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: DF -13.2%, PETS -1.6% (light volume).
Analyst comments: MCO -3.9% (downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray; lowers tgt to $30 from $38). -
Öigemini öelda arvuti programmidele, mis tegutsevad süstemaatiliselt börsidel
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Peale seda kollapsit tekkiski siuke arvamus, et mis asi on virtuaalne raha. Paljud koguvad oma raha kuni hauda, kas see on önn.
Pigem hinge läks saade, kus perel oli 11 last ja elasid önnelikult. -
Nagu mõni postitus tagasi on näha, siis täna on allapoole avanejate nimekiri erakordselt väike. Üks võimalik kukkuja on BP (BP), kuna ettevõte ei ole suutnud jätkuvalt Mehhiko lahes asunud puurtornil toimunud plahvatuse järel naftareostust peatada. Tänaseks on merre voolanud ca 4 miljonit gallonit ja siiani on reostus ettevõttele maksma läinud $350 miljonit (võrdluseks Exxon Valdezi juhtumi puhul voolas merre 10.8 miljonit gallonit):
BP on Monday disclosed $350 million in costs so far from its Gulf of Mexico oil leak, with the spill entering its 19th day since a giant oil rig sank and caused an estimated 5,000 barrels of oil a day to empty into the Gulf's water.
After failing to cap the leak with a 100-ton containment dome, BP (BP 49.32, +0.26, +0.53%) said Monday it will attempt to lower a smaller dome over the main leak point. The larger structure didn't work because it became clogged with ice-like crystals as a result of cold temperatures and crushing ocean pressure a mile beneath the surface. (marketwatch)
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Morgan Stanley strateeg T. Draaisma on olnud alates jaanuarist karune, kuid ELi, IMFi ja ECB võimas abipakett sunnib ka teda nägemust muutma:
We think it is possible that the correction is not fully over yet, and that the ECB may be pushed to do outright QE. But with the recent policy initiatives, and, as of Friday, 24% upside to our 1280 MSCI Europe target on a 12-month view, we’d rather be buyers then sellers. (loe pikemalt Draaisma nägemuse kohta siit)
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Kaua ralli võib kesta ?
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Pall on nüüd ilusti EU-st põrganud Aasia poole peale,kui järgmine shake tuleb siis vast sealt
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Crore, see kindlasti ka üks võimalik riskifaktor (Hiina laenu- ja kinnisvaramullist oleme siin päris palju kirjutanud). Teine kuum teema ka finantsregulatsioonid, mis kindlasti tulemata ei jäe (peab lihtsalt jälgima, millisel kujul need tulevad). Ma arvamusel, et nädalavahetusel tehtud abiplaan Kreeka ja Co jaoks peaks olema piisav, et siinsed pinged mõneks ajaks tagaplaanile jätta (kui liikmesriikide parlamendid selle ikka kenasti heaks kiidavad). Pakuks, et sellise abiplaani peale võivad vähemalt Euroopa aktsiad siit küll veel ülespoole sõita.
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Moody's reviews all rated Portuguese banks for possible downgrade
Moody's says Portugal downgrade to AA3 possible, downgrade to A1 possible; will complete review of Greece, Portugal in next four weeks or so - CNBC
