Börsipäev 11. mai
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eile oli börsidel väga huvitav päev. Euroopa turud tegid läbi massiivse ralli, mille peale avanesid ka USA turud ca 4% kõrgemalt. Kuigi päeva jooksul suudeti sellest euro nõrkuse tõttu suur osa käest ära anda, siis päeva lõpuks pressiti lühikeste positsioonide katjate abil indeksid ikkagi ca +4.5% juures kinni. Hetkel on aga eelturul futuurid ca -0.8%. Üheks põhjuseks kindlasti ka see, et kui eile päeval oli euro dollari vastu juba ca +2.5% tõusus, siis päeva lõpuks oli see langenud ca +0.5% peale ning praegusel eelturul on juba -0.6%, mis tähendab, et on liigutud juba allapoole nädalavahetusel teatatud abipaketi eelsest tasemest. Seega hiiglasliku laenumehhanismi paketiga kõiki kahtlusi ei ole suudetud veel eemale peletada.
Euro ja USA dollari graafik viimasel nädalal:
Makroandmetest avaldatakse USAs täna kell 17.00 ainult märtsikuu hulgimüügi varude muutuste raport, kust oodatakse ca +0.5%list näitu.
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Hiinast hommikul tulnud teated inflatsiooni kiirenemise kohta on olnud samuti murettekitavad. Aprillis kiirenes inflatsioon +2.8%ni (viimase 1.5 aasta kõrgeim näitaja) ning kinnisvara hinnad kerkisid ca 13%. Uute laenude väljastamise maht oli $113 miljardit, mis ületas kõikide analüütikute ootusi. Link Bloombergi loole.
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Pikem intervjuu Marc Faberiga, mis nagu alati, on väärt vaatamist. Link siin
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Mulle meeldib intervjuu Barton Biggsiga, kes on võrreldes paljude teiste viimasel ajal intervjuu andjatega oluliselt optimistlikum. Biggsi arvates on igasugused jutud eurotsooni lagunemisest alusetud ning ta usub, et aja jooksul muutub eurotsoon üha lähedasemaks USAle, kus eurotsooni liikmed käituvad justkui oma reeglite ja seadustega USA osariigid, kuid kelle tegevusi jälgib mingi liikmesriikide poolt kokku pandud kõrgem organ. USA aktsiatelt (eelkõige tehnoloogiasektorilt) ootab ca 20%list rallit.
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Ott Ummelas teeb Eestile positiivset reklaami: EU’s Least-Indebted State Is Model for Euro After Greek Crisis
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USA indeksid hetkel eelturul ca -1.0%.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -1.20%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -2.24%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -2.14%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -5.41%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.94%
Venemaa MICEX +2.80%
Poola WIG -0.74%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.14%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1.37%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -1.90%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.87%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0.01%
Tai Set 50 -1.19%
India Sensex 30 -1.09% -
Don't Expect a 'V'
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
5/11/2010 8:34 AM EDT
A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes.
-- Mark Twain
For over a year this market has had a tendency to put together technically questionable bounces that keep going straight up after any pullback. Every time the bears start looking for an oversold bounce to fail, they end up being squeezed when the market makes a "V"-shaped recovery. The bears panic and the underinvested bulls start chasing, and before you know it we are back at new highs.
The action over the past week has the same look to it. We broke down badly last week and were staring into the abyss, but just when it looked like we were going to really fall apart we had the biggest bounce in a year. The bounce was big and had fantastic breadth, but it was flawed. It occurred on lighter volume and it wasn't sufficient to cut through key technical overhead resistance.
Once again we are at that point where the market has had that tendency to make all the skeptics and doubters look like fools. During the past year if you have questioned this market's ability to bounce back, you have been wrong and have had to chase strength to put money to work.
This morning the action looks a bit different. Rather than building on yesterday's big gains, there are concerns about the European bailout plan and worries about inflation spiking up in China. The euro, which was supposed to be propped up by the bailout move, is now back to where it was prior to the big announcement this weekend.
So are we at the point where this market changes character and doesn't just continue to go straight up on the back of a technically weak bounce?
The bulls are so accustomed to being bailed out by this market that many of them have no doubts at all about how easily we will recover and just keep on running. The bears have to be hesitant about saying that this time it is different and the market is not going to jump back up so fast. But it's usually when everyone is expecting a pattern to continue that it changes. And when it does finally change, that's when the real pain occurs because many people will be poorly positioned.
When the market undergoes a change in trend, a large group of market players will have grown comfortable that the trend will just go on endlessly. They will laugh at the folks who have kept incorrectly predicting the trend change ... but then suddenly we break down, try to bounce back and fail, and they find themselves stuck. Instead of taking some stops, they hold on to positions and ride them down as they keep waiting and hoping for the trend they had embraced to resume once again. Eventually it does, but by that time their losses are so great they will need a huge move just to get back to even.
I'm painting a rather gloomy picture here, but my point is that we can't expect this market to pull off these "V"-shaped bounces endlessly. That doesn't mean we necessarily trend down, but a period of choppy action would not be at all surprising.
The weak open this morning after the big bounce yesterday is going to be a very good test of the dip-buyers. If they truly believe in this market and still have some firepower, they should be jumping in here pretty quickly. The key technical level will be yesterday's highs. If we can move back up there, then the chances of further upside momentum will be good, but I'd be surprised if we can do that without some sort of surprise news.
What I really disliked about the market yesterday was that the bounce did very little to give us attractive chart setups. After the breakdown last week, the freak action last Thursday and the big bounce yesterday, most charts are a mess. I saw very few things I would consider good buying setups. Charts are going to need some work before they will look attractive.
As I mentioned a couple times in the last few days, gold mining has the best-looking technical setup. There should be some opportunities there as market players look for safe havens away from the chaos that has been building lately.
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Briefing.com:
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: EMKR +9.6%, TRGL +9.1% (also Toreador Royalty and Hess (HES) announce Paris basin shale oil partnership), HQS +8.2%, FOSL +5.7%, MFB +5.5%, JASO +3.9%, SCVL +3.9% (light volume), LDK +3.9%, SLXP +3.8%, ABAT +2.1%, LM +1.5% (light volume).
Select gold related stocks trading higher: GFI +2.3%, GOLD +2.1%, AUY +1.9%, IAG +2.8%, NGD +2.3%, AEM +1.4%, EGO +1.1%.
Other news: RGDX +20.9% (light volume; signs agreement with GlaxoSmithKline to provide proprietary BRAF mutational analysis technology), NEXM +10.0% (announces encouraging pre-clinical results showing the ability of the NexACT technology to enhance the bioavailability of rituximab when administered subcutaneously), CGEN +8.8% (announces the discovery and initial experimental validation of CGEN-928 as a drug target for the treatment of multiple myeloma), CRUS +6.0% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: PCS +3.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ZEUS +1.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc), CAKE +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Baird),
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MBI -12.1%, PCLN -11.8%, ZAGG -10.7%, VISN -8.9% (also was upgraded to Hold at Auriga), ADY -6.0%, AGO -4.9%, FLR -4.0%, NUAN -3.0%, WRC -1.6%, ARIA -1.6%, MRK -1.5% (highlights late-stage pipeline and reaffirms guidance for FY10 EPS).
Select financial related names showing weakness: AIB -7.8%, RBS -5.4%, ING -5.0%, STD -4.9%, BBVA -4.4%, BCS -4.3%, NBG -3.9%, DB -3.2%, PUK -2.9%, IRE -2.9%, HBC -2.7%, MS -2.2%, CS -2.1%, C -1.9%, AIG -1.8%, BK -1.5%. Select mortgage insurer related names trading lower following MBI results: RDN -4.5%, PMI -4.5%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: RTP -4.3%, MT -4.2%, BBL -4.1%, BHP -3.8%, AAUKY -2.7%, VALE -2.0%.
Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: TOT -3.4%, E -2.4%, RDS.A -2.2%, XOM -1.3%.
Other news: BEE -12.0% (announces public offering of 40 mln shares of common stock), RCKY -9.3% (priced a 1.8 mln share common stock offering at $8.40/share ), TEF -6.0% (Telefonica disclosed offer for stake in BRASILCEL, N.V.), JAZZ -5.1% (announces 7 mln share public offering ), EXPE -2.7% (trading lower in sympathy with PCLN), GTY -2.5% (announces proposed public offering of 4,500,00 shares of common stock ), CEF -2.2% (it plans to offer Class A shares to the public in Canada (except Quebec) and in the U.S. under its existing U.S.$1 mln base shelf prospectus), SCG -1.7% (announced it intends to offer 7.15 mln shares of common stock).
Analyst comments: WAC -3.6% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe, Bruyette), XIN -2.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Roth), DF -1.8% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein). -
Hulgimüügi varude kasv oodatust pisut väiksem, kuid siiski võrreldav konsensusega.
March Wholesale Inventories +0.4% vs +0.5% consensus, prior +0.6% -
$38 bln 3-year Note Auction Results: Yield 1.414% (expected 1.411%); Bid/Cover 3.27x (12-auction avg 2.93x, Prior 3.10x); Indirect Bidder 50.7% (12-auction avg 52.0%, Prior 52.2%)
Võlakirjaoksjon hindele 5 -
Citigroup (C): Reiterate Buy and $5.50 tgt following meeting with mgmt- Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank C-d katmas osta soovitusega ja target $5.50 -
U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown announces that he will step down; suggests Queen should contact the leader of the Conservative Party (Cameron) to seek a new government
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Toornafta futuuridel kalendrispreadi contango juba $3.95 usd. Päris raju, sellist pilti pole väga kaua aega esinenud.
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Conservative Leader David Cameron leaving Buckingham Palace as the new U.K. Prime Minister
UK-l uueks peaministriks David Cameron
