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Börsipäev 1. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Head lastekaitsepäeva, suvekuu algust ja uue kuu esimest börsipäeva.

    Sel nädalal on hulgaliselt tulemas mitmeid majandusraporteid, millest huvipakkuvaim on kindlasti reedene maikuu tööjõuraport. Tähelepanu keskmes jätkuvalt naftareostus Mehhiko lahel ning geopoliitilised pinged Koreade vahel ning nüüd siis ka Iisraeli ja muu maailma vahel.

    Eelturu futuurid on S&P500 indeksil USAs hetkel ca -0.4%, nafta +0.3% ning euro dollari vastu kaotanud 0.8%.
  • BP jaoks siiani naftareostus Mehhiko lahes maksma läinud umbes miljard dollarit ja edu see toonud ei ole. Tegu ilmselt suurima looduskatastroofiga USA ajaloos ning võimalik, et nafta merre voolamine suudetakse peatada alles augustis. BP aktsia on Londonis top kill operatsiooni ebaõnnestumise peale kukkunud -13% (viimase 18 aasta suurim kukkumine).
  • Euro saab täna valuutaturul peksa ning on dollari vastu tänasega vajunud -2% ja kaupleb tasemel €1=$1.211. Euroopa indeksid samuti tugevalt miinuses ning ka USA futuurid tõotavad päeva algust enam kui 1.5%lise langusega.
  • Eurostat teatas täna, et eurotsooni töötusmäär tõusis aprillikuus (seasonally adjusted) 10% pealt 10.1%-le. Euroopa Liidu töötusmäär jäi kuisel baasil vaadatuna aga 8.7%-le. Eurotstati andmetel on eurotsoonis ca 15,860 mln töötut. Saksamaa töötusmäär langes mais aga 7.8% pealt 7.7%-le, kuna töötute arv langes kuuga 45,000 võrra.
  • Euroopa võlaprobleemide taustal on täna plusspoolel kulla hind. Hommikul soovitasid ka Credit Suisse analüütikud osta kulda ja kullakaevanduste aktsiaid. Kulla hinda nähakse 12. kuu pärast $1400 dollari juures.

    Gold could reach $1,400 an ounce in the next 12 months, Credit Suisse strategists said Tuesday in a view that conflicts with other analysts of the same bank. Among the reasons cited: gold tends to do well when the real Fed funds rate is below 2%; the 80% possibility of a macro environment supportive for gold; a low proportion of Chinese and Japanese foreign exchange reserves in gold; the shortage of a reserve currency; low aggregate weightings of gold; and the real (inflation-adjusted) gold price is 34% off its all-time high. By 2015, the cost of producing gold will be $1,400. They advised buying "cheap" gold stocks, citing Newmont Mining. (marketwatch)

    Newmont Mining (NEM) aktsia hind:

  • Kuidas kommenteerite fakti, et vanemad ei tohi enam laste eest tehinguid teha?
    Mina teen kah. Kas nüüd peab laps hakkama oma peaga raha liigutama? ...või olen ma midagi valesti aru saanud?
  • MSM, http://www.lhv.ee/forums/index.cfm?id=50395&start=101#140
  • momentum, otsisin, et äkki on keegi teema algatanud, aga nii pika pealkirja alt ei osanud otsida.
  • Kuigi reede lõpetati USA aktsiaturgudel pigem päeva põhjas, jäid paljudele märkamatuks päeva lõpu poole Goldman Sachsi poolt tõstetud S&P500 indeksi kasumiprognoosid. Nimelt GS tõstis 2010. aasta EPSi prognoosi S&P500 indeksil $76 pealt $78le ning 2011. aasta EPSi prognoosi $90 pealt $93 peale. Samuti tuldi välja 3, 6 ja 12 kuu hinnasihtidega S&P500 indeksile. GSi hinnasihid on vastavalt 1160, 1250 ja 1300 punkti.

    Kui 2010. aasta EPS oleks $78 ja 2011. aasta EPS $93, tähendaks see, et S&P500 indeks kaupleb praeguse ca 1074 punkti peal ca 13.8x 2010. aasta ja 11.5x 2011. aasta kasumit. Neid kordajaid võib pidada pigem odavaks.
  • Ka paljud aktsiahinnad on hetkel odavad ja muutuvad tänasel päeval veel odavamaks. Täna jälle globaalne SELL OFF
  • Kui keegi tahab kuulata ja näha illustratsioone BP poolt tehtavate püüdluste kohta naftareostuse piiramiseks, siis üks link Bloombergi videole on siin. 

  • The Bank of Canada increased its interest rate 25 bps to 0.50%, as expected; Canada becomes the first G-7 country to raise rates
  • Gapping Down
    Select financial related names trading lower following extended domestic holiday weekend and weakness in overseas trading exacerbated by ECB report raising concerns on further write-downs: IRE -8.4%, AIB -6.8%, BBVA -5.1%, CS -3.8%, RDN -3.7%, STD -3.3%, NBG -3.3%, BCS -2.9%, AIG -2.9% (AIG to adhere to original AIA transaction terms), UBS -2.9%, RF -2.8%, GNW -2.8%, ING -2.8%, KEY -2.4%, C -1.5%, JPM -1.4%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLT -6.0%, MT -4.4%, RTP -2.4%, TOT -2.2%, BHP -2.4%, BBL -1.6%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: BP -15.0% (plans to further enhance lower marine riser package containment system), RIG -8.2%, ATPG -7.9%, ESV -6.4%, APC -6.4%, CAM -3.9%, WFT -3.5%, DO -3.3%, BHI -2.9%, HAL -3.3%, NBR -2.8%, SLB -2.0%, CVX -1.1%.

    Other news: ACGY -8.0% (trading ex dividend).

    Analyst comments: BEAT -7.9% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), RGC -6.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Montgomery Scott), BYD -2.8% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Janney Montgomery Scott), GLW -2.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ticonderoga), S -1.9% (initiated with a Sell at BTIG).

    Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: RYAAY +5.7% (light volume).

    M&A news: EVVV +17.9% (agrees to be acquired by Covidien for $22.50 per share in cash, or $2.6 bln; COV sees FY10 dilution of $0.05-0.08, FY11 accretion of $0.10-0.15).

    Select gold related names ticking higher: GG +1.5%, EGO +1.5%, NEM +1.3%, GOLD +0.9%.

    Other news: ONCY +9.2% (receives approval from Belgium FAMHP to conduct Phase 3 Trial for REOLYSIN), OREX +8.5% (announces FDA acceptance of Contrave new drug application for the treatment of obesity), PUK +6.7% (AIG to adhere to original AIA transaction terms ), RSH +6.7% (still checking), IGTE +6.2% (still checking).

  • Kanada majandus kasvas esimeses kvartalis annualiseeritult 6.1% (2x kiiremini USAst) ja viimastel kuudel on üllatavalt kiirelt töökohti loodud. Inflatsiooniootuste kontrolli all hoidmiseks tundub baasintressimäära tõstmine mõistlik samm.
  • Shark räägib täna tehnilisest pöördepunktist (kas üle või alla):

    An Important Technical Juncture
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/1/2010 9:02 AM EDT

    "If there is no struggle, there is no progress."

    -- Frederick Douglass
    The market is under heavy selling pressure to start the new month. The failure of BP's (BP) efforts to halt the oil leak in the Gulf of Mexico, new lows for the euro and poor economic data from China are keeping buyers on the sidelines.

    The problem isn't just that the news is bad but that we just don't know when we will have some clarity. The oil leak may take months to correct, the problems in Europe continue to fester, and the Chinese economic situation continues to slip.

    Technically, the market is at a particularly important juncture. We have had a fairly deep correction already. Sentiment is quite poor, and we are oversold enough to support a bounce. On the other hand, we have already had a couple good bounce attempts but have been unable to generate sustained momentum. While the spikes last Tuesday and Thursday were quite big, they came on average volume and fizzled out the next day.

    The big question at this point is whether the fundamental situation is poor enough for the correction that we have been undergoing to deepen. The best argument against that is that negativity is already quite high, but the problem is that we have so much uncertainty that the buyers just aren't very interested in trying to pick up some bargains.

    When you stand back and look at the big picture, there just isn't any great reason to embrace this market. We had an oversold bounce last week that failed almost exactly at the 200-day simple moving average of the S&P 500, which is the first key level of overhead resistance. Unlike our other bounces during the rally that started in March 2009, we didn't have the V-shaped recovery. Buyers produced some one day spikes but the selling pressure quickly returned.

    The key thing to keep in mind right now is that we are in downtrend. We may see some counter-trend bounces, but technical overhead is having an impact, and the market is now inclined to sell strength. There is no reason to expect that we are suddenly going to go straight back up again.

    The market has had a very strong tendency toward positive opens to start the week, but we are obviously breaking that pattern this morning. Does that mean we have a buying opportunity this morning? Will the nervousness be shaken off and dip-buyers jump in as market players wake up from the long weekend?

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a good bounce attempt this morning, but if you are playing, you will need to keep time frames short. Until the indices can deal effectively with some overhead resistance and deliver some follow-through, the trend is down and the correction ongoing.
  • Euroopa indeksid ja USA futuurid on päeva põhjadest veidi kosunud, kuid sellegipoolest jätkuvalt korralikus miinuses. USA indeksite futuurid indikeerivad avanemist -0,5% kuni -1,2% punases.  

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -1,57%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -1,84%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 -1,92%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -2,63%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -1,14%
    Venemaa MICEX -2,18%
    Poola WIG -1,42%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,58%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng -1,36%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.92%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -1,24%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,13%
    Tai Set 50 -1,54%
    India Sensex 30 -2,20%

  • Ei saa pihta - OMX kodukal Tallinna käive 8MEEK.
    Äripäeva AP Investor näitab napilt üle 1MEEK.
    Keda uskuda?
    Kas see erinevus on teadjatele rutiin?
  • Aprillis on ehituskulutused igaljuhul hüppeliselt kasvanud:

    May ISM Manufacturing Index 59.7 vs 59.4 consensus, April 60.4
    April Construction Spending m/m +2.7% vs +0.1% consensus, prior revised to +0.4% from +0.2%

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