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Börsipäev 9. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile suudeti aktsiaturgudel langus peatada ning nägime tugevat päevalõppu. Ka praegu on indeksite futuurid ja Euroopa ülespoole rühkimas. Makroandmete poole pealt täna USAst midagi väga erilist oodata ei ole. Kell 17.00 tuleb aprillikuu hulgivarude muutuse raport (ootus +0.5%), kell 17.30 naftavarude raport ning kell 21.00 Föderaalreservi Beeži raamatu sisu.
  • Joel, kui viitsid, pane siia S&P pilt ka, kuidas tehniline analüüs millimeetri pealt "toimis." Ehk siis põrked veebruari põhjadest. Lihtsalt naljakas vaadata... ;)
  • Mnjah... juba kaks korda on põrgatud veebruari põhjade pealt. SPY viimase 6 kuu graafik:

  • Morgan Stanley on asunud taas Vimpelcomi (VIP) aktsiad katma ning soovituseks overweight. USA börsil kauplevate ADRide hinnasihina on nad välja käinud $21 ehk 35% tänasest turuhinnast enam. Nimetavad VIPi aktsiaid arenevate turgude telekomide seast üheks oma lemmikuks.

    MS: "We resume coverage of VimpelCom at Overweight –one of our top picks in EEMEA Telecom. The overhangs of the last six months are largely behind us –related to the merger with Kyivstar and drawn out tender offer, removal from MSCI Russia, revenue share losses during 2H09 in Russia and Ukraine, and a focus on acquisitions in the medium term. We believe VimpelCom is now stronger in terms of: 1) balance sheet from the addition of Kyivstar; and 2) corporate governance through the apparent resolution of the shareholder dispute between Telenor and Altimo and increased independents on the board of directors. But, this does not appear to be reflected in the stock, which trades at an 18% discount to the long run Russian average."

  • Overweight, underweight... millal see benchmark'idel baseeruv jama ükskord lõpeb? :-D
  • Zara, Bershka, Pull and Bear ning mitmete teiste tuntud kiirmoe rõivakettide omanik Inditex raporteeris täna vaatamata keerulisele makromajanduslikule olukorrale tugevad esimese kvartali tulemused, mis on aktsia ca 5% kõrgemale tõstnud. Aprillis lõppenud kvartali müügitulu paranes aastaga 14% 2,67 miljardi euroni ning puhaskasum 63% 301 miljoni euroni. Käibe osas vastas number ootustele, kasum aga osutus prognoositud 256,4 miljonist eurost paremaks tänu poodide kiiremast varustamisest tingitud kõrgemale brutokasumimarginaalile, mis paranes 57%-lt 60%le.

    Erinevalt traditsioonilisest rõivaste disainimise ja valmistamise protsessist, mis kestab kuid, lähtub Inditex ärimudelist, mis kombineerib efektiivselt disaini, tootmise ja jaotuse – jooksvalt jälgitakse moetrende ning mõne nädalaga on uued tooted juba kaupluste lettidel üle terve maailma. Selline efektiivsus võimaldab edukalt juhtida varusid ning vähendab vajadust teha suuremaid soodustusi. Kuna kaup Inditexi poeriiulitel väga kaua ei leba, julgustab see kliente kohe ostma, sest vastasel korral ei pruugi sama rõivaese järgmisel nädalal enam leiduda. Inditexi ärimudelist kirjutasin pikemalt siin 

    Inditex on vaatamata majanduskriisile jätkanud väga aktiivselt laienemist väljaspool Hispaaniat, et hajutada oma tulubaasi. Esimeses kvartalis avati ligi 100 poodi 29 riigis, mis tõi koguarvu 4705-ni 76s riigis. Sügisest plaanitakse avada Zara online pood viies Euroopa riigis, mis koos arenevate turgude kasvuga aitab Barclays Capitali arvates lüüa 2011 majandusaastal konsensust nii top kui bottom line osas.  

    Kuna kolmandik tuludest tuleb Hispaaniast, omab sealne kõrge tööpuudus ning fiskaalkulude kärpimine potentsiaalset mõju Inditexi tulemustele. Erinevalt paljudest, ettevõtte tegevjuht Hispaania väljavaadete osas nii negatiivne ei ole:

    "The reality in Spain is better than the perception you may have," he told analysts. "I personally have a strong confidence in the dynamism of the Spanish economy going forward."

  • Reutersi vahendusel üle pooletunnine videoklipp Hiina teemal, milles Arthur Kroeber esindab pulli ja Marc Faber karu.

  • Faber, mees kes kasvatab oma "rohu" ise... :-D
  • Turud on Euroopas ilusti plussis ning ka USA indeksite futuurid on jõudsalt ülespoole liikumas ning kauplevad päeva tippudel ca +0.7% kuni +0.8% juures. Nafta on tõusnud 2.5% ja jõudnud juba $74 alla.

    Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX +1,12%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,97%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,48%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,35%
    Rootsi OMX 30 +1,38%
    Venemaa MICEX +1,12%
    Poola

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,04%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0,69%
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +2,78%
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +3,42%
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0,68%
    Tai Set 50 +0,87%
    India Sensex 30 +0,25%

  • Give the Bounce Some Room
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    6/9/2010 8:37 AM EDT

    "You may be deceived if you trust too much, but you will live in torment if you do not trust enough."

    -- Frank Crane

    Markets don't go straight up or down. During any trend, there will be counter-moves and bounces as oversold or overbought conditions are worked off. The important thing is to not be fooled into thinking that a major trend change is occurring simply because we finally move in the opposite direction for a few days. Bounces are inevitable, but we can't be too trusting of them in the context of a downtrend.

    The challenge is that counter-trend bounces can easily evolve into a change in character. For example, in March 2009 the Nasdaq put together four positive days in a row after a massive breakdown. Volume wasn't particularly heavy, but we cut through resistance at the 50-day simple moving average and just kept on going. Many bears thought we'd eventually see a retest of the March lows, but it never happened.

    There wasn't anything technically compelling about the bounce at first, so if you didn't trust it, you missed out on the early gains. Many market players did just that, and that is what then helped to create a wall of worry for the market to climb for the remainder of the year.

    So here we are now with the market suffering two failed bounces as it has undergone a correction over the past month. We had some positive action in the DJIA and S&P 500 yesterday, and we are we seeing some further gains in the early action this morning. Should we believe that we have seen the lows and load up on longs so that we don't miss the bottom like many did back in March 2009?

    The answer is that you don't have to believe that we have hit a lasting low in order to take some long positions. There isn't any reason why you can't try to profit from counter-trend moves. You don't need to believe the market is out of the woods, but you should make sure you are disciplined with the way you handle trades. The biggest danger is that the bounce fails and we start to downtrend but you don't cut losses or lock in gains.

    The biggest problem for momentum and trend traders at this point is that there simply aren't many good charts for that style. There are plenty of things that are oversold and can bounce, but most look like they will eventually be shorts again as they head into resistance levels. There is some room to the upside before major resistance kicks in, so bears should not be in any big rush to reload short positions.

    There isn't a whole lot of news out there this morning other than some upbeat comments about China exports being 50%-plus over the levels of last May. Tightening in China has been a major concern lately, but this news makes it pretty obvious that those efforts are not doing much to kill that economy.

    While the market remains technically in a downtrend, the bulls have some positives to work with and a fair amount of room before they run into any big resistance levels. Give the bounce some room, but stay disciplined with your trades. If a major turn does develop, we'll be able to add more exposure down the road as the market proves itself.
    -----------------------------------
    Briefing.com vahendusel:
    Ülespoole avanevad:

    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MIND +23.3% (light volume), TTWO +4.1%, CIEN +4.0%, OXM +3.1%, TXN +1.4%, light volume).

    M&A news: DINE +28.8% (Samstock files amended 13D presenting a non-binding indication of interest to acquire for $13.50 per Share in cash), TTIL +19.4% (light volume; TTI Team Telecom to be acquired by TEOCO for $3/share), ECLP +13.5% (Allscripts to acquire Eclipsys for ~$22.10/share in stock .

    Other news: DEPO +8.8% (very light volume; announces acceptance of new drug application for investigational postherpetic neuralgia treatment DM-1796), DSCO +7.5% (receives FDA guidance regarding preclinical program to gain Surfaxin approval; reports preliminary results from phase 2 clinical trial of Surfaxin), FSII +3.7% (announces pricing of 5.4 mln share public offering of its common stock at $3.05/share), WFT +3.1% (still checking), HCCI +3.1% (prices 3.0 mln common shares at $8.00/share ), POM +2.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), WPPGY +2.2% (still checking), FRX +1.9% (Announces Accelerated Share Repurchase ), DNDN +1.6% (still checking), DO +1.4% (confirms no leaks of oil from ocean saratoga drilling rig).

    Analyst comments: AVNR +5.9% (initiated with a Buy at Cantor Fitzgerald), VALE +1.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), POT +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS), BIDU +1.8% (initiated with a Buy at ThinkEquity), CHH +0.8% (upgraded to Neutral from Underweight at JP Morgan).

    Allapoole avanevad:

    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: NCS -3.0%.

    M&A news: MDRX -3.3% (Allscripts to acquire Eclipsys for ~$22.10/share in stock; also reaffirms 4Q10 and FY10 guidance; sees revenue and non-GAAP EPS at high-end of range).

    Other news: KGS -5.8% (still checking), REGN -5.7% (reports ARCALYST Phase 3 Trial data), GMR -4.7% (announces agreement to acquire seven modern tankers), FTE -4.4% (trading ex dividend), NOK -3.7% (traded lower overseas), CNP -3.2% (announces 22 mln common stock public offering), TIVO -2.6% (continued weakness following USPTO decision), BP -1.8% (traded lower overseas), WAG -1.0% (CVS Caremark announces plan to remove Walgreens from PBM pharmacy network and transition pharmacy care to participating providers ).

    Analyst comments: RST -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Baird),
  • Erinevad keskpangad üle maailma on avaldanud oma toetust eurole ja öelnud, et eurol on kindlasti koht nende valuutareservides.

    Marc Chandleri kommentaar RealMoney all: "A news wire is reporting that Russia remains committed to diversifying its reserves and has not changed its view of the euro. This is consistent with what several other central banks, including China, Japan and South Korea have indicated recently."
  • Väike tulemuste kokkuvõte energiaraportist ka siia Briefingu vahendusel:

    Dept of Energy reports that crude oil inventories had a draw of 1829K (consensus is a draw of 900K); gasoline inventories had a draw of 8K (consensus is a draw of 500K); distillate inventories had a build of 1836K (consensus is a build of 500K). The change in the US refinery utilization rate was 1.6% (consensus is 0.00%).
  • British Petroli (BP) aktsia on täna taas üle 10% miinuses ning täna ära käidud ka allpool $30 taset. Sellega on aktsia jõudnud tagasi 1996. aasta augusti tasemele...

  • Link BP liikumise põhjusele ka.

    Naftasektori ekspert Matt Simmons ütleb, et BP võib juba kuu aja jooksul sisse anda pankrotiavalduse.

    Simmons: "They have about a month before they declare Chapter 11. They're going to run out of cash from lawsuits, cleanup and other expenses. One really smart thing that Obama did was about three weeks ago he forced BP CEO Tony Hayward to put in writing that BP would pay for every dollar of the cleanup. But there isn't enough money in the world to clean up the Gulf of Mexico. Once BP realizes the extent of this my guess is that they'll panic and go into Chapter 11."

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