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Börsipäev 16. juuni

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Eile tegid aktsiaturud väga korraliku ralli ning mõned börsipäevad tagasi siin foorumites väljakäidud S&P500 indeksi aprillikuust alanud allapoole liikumise trendist murti sellega ülespoole ning oodatud/loodetud W-põrge saigi reaalsuseks.

    Küll võib lühema aja pilti sogasemaks ajada aga makroraportid, mida täna on tulemas lausa hulgim. Eesti aja järgi kell 15.30 avaldatakse maikuu annualiseeritud müügitempo alustatud elamuehitiste arvu kohta (ootus 655 000), välastatud ehituslubade kohta (ootus 631 000), maikuu tootjahinnaindeksi muutus (ootus -0,5%; tuumikosa ootus +0,1%), kell 16.15 maikuu tootmisvõimsuste kasutamise määr (ootus 74,4%) ja maikuu tööstustoodangu muutus (ootus +0,8%) ning kell 17.30 traditsiooniliselt iganädalane nafta- ja kütusevarude muutumise raport. Seega markonumbreid tuleb täna hulgaliselt, kuid mind huvitavad eelkõige kinnisvaraga seotud numbrid, et näha, kui suurt negatiivset mõju on avaldanud aprilliga lõppenud USA kinnisvarastiimulid.

  • Financial Times'is täna mitmed artiklid räägivad Baltikumist ja Ida-Euroopast:

    http://www.ft.com/ibi

  • Obama räägib sellest, kuidas USA riik peab vähendama oma sõltuvust naftast. Link videole siin. Mina näen selle sõltuvuse vähendamisel väga olulist rolli maagaasil ja alternatiivsetel taastuvenergiaallikatel.

  • FedEx lööb küll neljanda kvartali kasumi ja käibe osas, kuid jääb järgmise fiskaalaasta aktsiakasumi prognoosimisel konsensusest tagasihoidlikumaks, mille peale teeb SP500 futuur päeva põhjasid (-0,6%)

    FedEx beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS in-line; guides FY11 EPS below consensus 

    Reports Q4 (May) earnings of $1.33 per share, $0.01 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $1.32; revenues rose 20.1% year/year to $9.43 bln vs the $9.04 bln consensus. Co issues in-line guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.85-1.05 vs. $1.03 Thomson Reuters consensus. Co issues downside guidance for FY11, sees EPS of $4.40-5.00 vs. $5.05 Thomson Reuters consensus. "This guidance assumes the current market outlook for fuel prices and a continued moderate recovery in the global economy. The capital spending forecast for fiscal 2011 is $3.2 billion, which includes the expected delivery of six Boeing 777Fs and 16 Boeing 757s, along with investments in information technology, vehicles and facilities in support of the company's global growth strategy. We expect continued improvement in both revenue and earnings in fiscal 2011."

  • Huvitav mis hakkab suht lähitulevikus saama Venemaast,araabiamaadest jms maadest mis elavad peamiselt nafta ekspordist.Kui USA-s suurem naftasõltumatus tekib ja euroopa hakkab juba üle minema elektriautodele.Midagi stagnatsiooni sarnast ehk?
  • Kinnisvaraostu stiimulid nüüd läbi... ja numbrid maikuus jäävad oodatud/loodetuga võrreldes ikka korralikult alla.

    May Housing Starts 593K vs 655K Briefing.com consensus, M/M -10%.
    May Building Permits 574K vs 631K Briefing.com consensus, M/M -5.9%.
    May Core PPI M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus, prior +0.2%.
    May PPI M/M -0.3% vs -0.5% Briefing.com consensus, prior -0.1%.
  • Mis Nokiaga juhtus, et äkki kukkus 8.09 pealt 7.40 peale.
  • Nokia alandab prognoose.

    Briefing.com vahendusel: Nokia lowers devices & services Q2 outlook and updates the FY10 outlook (9.82 ). Co now expects Q2 Devices & Services net sales to be at the lower end or slightly below previously expected range of EUR 6.7-7.2 bln primarily due to lower than previously expected average selling prices and mobile device volumes. Co now expects Q2 Devices & Services non-IFRS operating margin to be at the lower end or slightly below previously expected range of 9% to 12% primarily due to a lower than previously expected gross margin. Co continues to expect industry mobile device volumes to be up approximately 10% in 2010, compared to 2009 (based on its revised definition of the industry mobile device market applicable beginning in 2010). Co continues to target its mobile device volume market share to be flat in 2010, compared to 2009. Co now expects Devices & Services non-IFRS operating margin to be at the lower end of, or below, its previously targeted range of 11% to 13% for the full year 2010. Co also expects its mobile device value market share to be slightly lower in 2010 primarily due to the competitive situation at the high-end of the market and shifts in product mix.
  • Ja juba 7.28 Kõik toimub paari minuti jooksul.
  • U.S.-listed shares of Nokia Corp sank in premarket trading on
    Wednesday after the company warned that profitability at its key phones unit
    would be weaker than expected this quarter and in 2010 as it struggles to
    compete against rivals like Apple in the high-end of the phone market.
  • MSM, ma pakun, et paari sekundi jooksul kui mitte kiiremini Nokia suguse aktsia puhul
  • Mõni kindlasti ka siseinfot saand enne ja juba paar nädalat tagasi huijas maha oma koguse..
  • Kust sa seda võtad? Miks see oluline on? Miks peab selliseid asju siia kirjutama?
  • Räägivad siin tehingu kiirustest.
  • Pakun et mõni müüs kindlasti juba paar kuud tagasi Nokia aktsiad maha.
  • HEINZ, su tähelepanek vastab tõele, sest muidu poleks ju teised osta saanud.
  • Ma pakuks, et keegi müüb iga päev.
  • Joel Kukemelk Re: Börsipäev 16. juuni 16/06/10 15:30
    Kinnisvaraostu stiimulid nüüd läbi... ja numbrid maikuus jäävad oodatud/loodetuga võrreldes ikka korralikult alla.
    May Housing Starts 593K vs 655K Briefing.com consensus, M/M -10%.
    May Building Permits 574K vs 631K Briefing.com consensus, M/M -5.9%.
    ------------------------
    Starts
    Single M/M - 17,2%
    Multiple M/M +32,9%
    Permits
    Single M/M -9,8%
    Multiple M/M +9,67%

    ühepereelamute osas vähenemine, kortermajade (või mis iganes need multiple on) osas kasv, asi ei ole nii kole kui pealkirjast kaugemale vaadata - EUR/USD ja turg on siiani küll leigelt reageerinud housing numbritele



  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: GXDX -17.8%, NOK -10.0%, FDX -2.4%.

    M&A news: COV -8.8% (light volume; Somanetics announces Covidien will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Somanetics Corporation for $25.00 per share in cash).

    Select financial related names showing weakness: IRE -5.1%, STD -3.3%, KEY -3.0%, BCS -2.5%, NBG -2.4%, DB -1.8%, ING -1.7%, UBS -1.7%, AIG -1.3%, C -1.3%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: PAL -3.2%, MT -2.1%, VALE -1.9%, RTP -1.8%, BBL -1.7%, BHP -1.4% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan).

    Select oil/gas related names under pressure: ACGY -4.8%, SDRL -4.6%, HERO -4.1%, BEXP -3.9%, ATPG -3.2%, APC -2.8%, STO -2.8%, REP -2.6%, SLB -2.1%, SU -2.1%, DVN -1.7%, WFT -1.6%, CHK -1.5%.

    Select mobile device makers and cos with exposure to NOK are trading lower following NOK guidance: STM -4.7%, BP -2.9% (shares lower in premarket trade following President Obama's speech; also estimates raised for BP spill to 60Kbpd from 35K), ALU -3.8%, RFMD -3.4% (NOK accounts for ~55% of the revs at RFMD), VG -3.3%, SI -1.9%, QCOM -1.6%, MOT -1.6%, ERIC -1.5%, RIMM -1.4%, TXN -1.4% (TXN sales to Nokia accounted for ~20% of revs in 2009), SWKS -1.1%, .

    Other news: CRIS -30.7% (trial did not meet its primary endpoint of extending the time from randomization to disease progression or death in study patients who received GDC-0449), FSC -4.1% (commences 8 mln share public offering of common stock), GTU -3.7% (plans to offer Units of Central GoldTrust to the public in Canada and in the US under its existing U.S.$800 mln base shelf prospectus dated June 8, 2009), RBCN -2.9% (prices offering of ~2.6 mln shares of common stock at $30/share), UTA -1.8% (priced a ~2.85 mln share common stock offering at $7/share), RL -1.4% (prices 9.0 mln common shares at $81.00/share), AIXG -1.4% (still checking), AZN -1.0% (still checking for anything specific).

    Analyst comments: IGT -3.7% (downgraded to Sell at Goldman), WPRT -2.2% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Securities), DWA -2.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman).

    Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: CLC +5.7%, RRTS +1.6% (light volume), CCE +0.5% (light volume).

    M&A news: SMTS +31.0% (Somanetics announces Covidien will acquire all of the outstanding shares of Somanetics Corporation for $25.00 per share in cash).

    Select alternative/clean energy names getting boost following Obama comments last night: CLNE +15.6% (focuses on alternative fuels for vehicles), HEV +14.6% (business of rechargeable lithium batteries), FSYS +8.9% (light volume; focuses on alternative fuel components).

    Select education names ticking higher on reports of gainful employment delay: DV +3.8%, APOL +3.8%, ESI +2.9% (light volume), COCO +1.6%.

    Other news: URRE +50.0% (Tenth Circuit rules in favor of Uranium Resources in Indian Country Case), NBIX +30.9% (Neurocrine Biosciences and Abbott Labs announce global agreement to develop and commercialize elagolix for treatment of endometriosis), GNVC +16.0% (announces engagement of financial advisor to evaluate strategic alternatives ), PWER +6.8% (announces completion of its reorganization), IMMU +5.8% (reports new data from EMBLEM study show Epratuzumab provided significant efficacy), AXL +3.6% (ticking higher in premarket; Hearing move attributed to analyst upgrade), SUN +2.7% (plans to separate coke business; expects refining segment to be profitable in 2Q10), AMTD +1.6% (Reports Monthly Metrics; An average of 484,000 client trades per day in May 2010, up 18% from May 2009 and up 13% from April 2010), MDRX +0.7% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), IRDM +0.6% (Iridium Communications and SpaceX sign commercial launch contract).

    Analyst comments: SHPGY +1.5% (initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank).

  • Euroopa turud:

    Saksamaa DAX -0,07%
    Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0,12%
    Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,1%
    Hispaania IBEX 35 -1,46%
    Rootsi OMX 30 -0,51%
    Venemaa MICEX -0,26%
    Poola WIG -0,02%

    Aasia turud:
    Jaapani Nikkei 225 +1,81%
    Hong Kongi Hang Seng suletud
    Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) N/A suletud
    Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) N/A suletud
    Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,18%
    Tai Set 50 +1,08%
    India Sensex 30 +0,29%

  • Rev Shark: Stay Nimble and Flexible
    06/16/2010 7:56 AM

        No, no, you're not thinking; you're just being logical.
        -- Niels Bohr

    Navigating the market gyrations is never an easy task, but the recent movement is causing more than the normal amount of frustration. Even the folks who tend to love any positive action are expressing their dismay over the lack of logic this market is displaying.

    The market is never a totally rational beast. If it were, we would just program our computers and print money. But generally the normal the market irrationality isn't so extreme that it appears to be random.

    The action yesterday was a good case in point. There was a good bond auction in Europe, which helped to prop up the euro. But the news flow has been very negative lately with a poor report from Best Buy (BBY - commentary - Trade Now) Tuesday morning helping to confirm that consumers may be retrenching once again.

    I'm not going to repeat all the negative news we have heard recently, but it has been consistent - and the Gulf of Mexico oil leak disaster and the European sovereign debt situation are far from any clear resolution. Nonetheless, the market gapped up and then ran straight up all day. Breadth was extremely strong and volume nothing spectacular.

    I believe part of what drove the action was that there was such an extreme focus on the obvious technical overhead levels around 1108. Even the folks who don't normally pay much attention to the charts were aware of that level and no one wanted to be left out of the breakout. Once the market set its sights on it, there was no turning back regardless of any fundamental consideration.

    A lot of folks are confused by this seemingly random strength, but what we need to do now is focus on what happens next. The biggest problem with yesterday's action is that it just isn't a very impressive technical breakout. It is difficult to trust that momentum is building and that buyers are going to be aggressive out of fear they will miss the turn.

    On the other hand, for over a year this market has consistently moved higher following these sorts of flimsy breakouts. In fact, light volume moves seem more likely to result in a lasting follow-through than higher volume moves. Investors who have tried to short these sorts of moves have consistently lost money and have probably helped to fuel more upside.

    Last night, quite a few folks were joking about how the market would be sure to gap down this morning to trap the bears just like it gapped up to trap the bulls on Tuesday. It isn't a huge gap, but the premarket is gapping down a bit as the euro strengthens, FedEx (FDX - commentary - Trade Now) earnings disappoint and nothing new has come from President Obama's televised energy speech last night.

    Technically, Tuesday's action has pushed the market into a short-term uptrend, so we need to respect that. But given the randomness of the action, there is little reason to be aggressive with new buys. I'm staying very selective with the charts I buy and that means I continue to hold high levels of cash. There just aren't a lot of great setups for position trades as we deal with major resistance after a low-volume bounce.

    We'll see if the buyers jump in on this early weakness and then we'll go from there. Just stay nimble and flexible. We are dealing with a random market and that requires a high level of vigilance.

    No positions.

  • NOK pidi vist oma hinnapoliitikat natuke kohandama pärast seda kui AAPL teatas, et nende uus iPhone maksab 199$.
  • Miks delistitakse? Mis sellega kaasneb?
  • Ma mäletan, et nädalapäevad tagasi räägiti, et Nokia hoiatab.
    Oot, kohe vaatan. Jep, 09.juuni 2010.
    Kes siis reageeris, võib täna kergendatult hingata.

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