Börsipäev 22. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Ehkki USA turul kippus eile meeleolu pärast Bernanke ebakindlaid seisukohti USA majanduslike väljavaadete suhtes päris nutuseks muutuma, jäi Wall Streeti mõju täna Aasia vaatamata kahe eelneva päeva tõusule veidi tagasihoidlikumaks: Jaapan -0,6%, Hongkong -0,18%, Austraalia -0,78%, Hiina +0,75%. Euroopa tõotab avaneda -0,4% kuni -0,7% madalamal, USA futuurid kauplevad aga eilsete sulgumistasemete juures.
Majandusindikaatorite kohalt on graafik täna tihe nii Euroopas kui ka teisel pool Atlandit. Eurotsoonis tuleb avalikustamisele juulikuu PMI näitajad (kl 11.00), maikuu tööstustoodangu tellimused (kl 12.00) ja tarbijausalduse indeks (kl 17.00). Homsete stresstesti tulemuste eel kipub aga põhitähelepanu jääma nendega seotud spekulatsioonidele. Viimaste osas on CNBC terve tänase hommiku teadvustanud, et Euroopa Liit kaalub reede pärast turgu avalda ka tulemused üksikute pankade kohta, mis varasemate plaanide järgi oleks pidanud toimuma mõne nädala pärast.
USA-s on fookuses läinud nädala esmakordse töötuabiraha taotlejate arv (kl 15.30), mis konsensuse arvates võis tõusta 429 000-lt 445 000 peale. Jooksvate töötuabiraha taotlejate arv võis aga langeda 4,681 miljonilt 4,6 miljonile. Kell 17.00 teatatakse aga juunikuu olemasolevate majade müük ja juhtivad indikaatorid.
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Senat hääletas eile õhtul, et töötuabiraha saamise perioodi tuleks USAs praegust rasket tööjõuturu seisukohta arvestades pikendada. House teeb oma otsuse täna.
Tulemustetabel on taaskord uuenenud ning link sellele on siin. Täna enne turgu teatavad oma tulemused sellised ettevõtted nagu 3M, AT&T, Caterpillar, Nokia, UPS jt. Pärast turu sulgemist tulevad Amazon.com, American Express, Microsoft jt.
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Goldman Sachs tõstis eilsete Baidu.com (BIDU) tulemuste järel aktsiale antavat hinnasihti $76 pealt $90 peale. RBC Capital tõstis oma poolt antava hinnasihi $95 pealt $101 peale, napsates sellega ära Street high tiitli Susquehannalt, kes oli väljas $100lise hinnasihiga.
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Otkritie analüüsimaja Venemaal on täna langetanud RTSi aastalõpu hinnasihti 2100 punkti pealt 1800 punkti peale. Küll aga kiidetakse jätkuvalt paranenud Venemaa makromajanduse näitajaid. Väike väljavõte ka siia:
We remain bullish on Russia, though we are reducing our year-end RTS target by 14% (from 2100 to 1,800). Although we predicted many things correctly in our 2010 outlook, we had not anticipated Eurozone sovereign debt issues to prompt such a severe spike in risk aversion. While this is gradually easing, it seems less likely from the current levels that Russia, even allowing for its high-beta status, will manage to deliver 50%+ absolute return by year’s end. Having said that, with the average price of oil at $78/bbl YTD — and back on the rise —Russia’s macro situation is improving. The budget deficit is manageable and the current account will remain in surplus, especially given CBR’s exchange rate policy aimed at relatively weaker ruble. A smoother taxation system, increased attention to institutional and economic reform (albeit marginal), and a renewed investment cycle reaffirm the positive case for Russia. Valuations are among the cheapest of the GEMs. -
Saksamaa PMI ületas ootusi nii tootmis- kui teenustesektoris. Tootmissektoris tuli indeks oodatud 58,0 asemel 61,2 ja teenustesektoris 54,5 asemel 57,3. Ka eurotsooni PMI liitindeks tuli 55,5 asemel 56,7.
UK jaemüügi tulemused (v.a kütus) ületasid samuti ootusi: 0,6% kasvu asemel 1,0% (MoM) ja 2,4% asemel 3,1% (YoY). Koos kütusega olid tulemused samuti oodatust paremad: 1,0% vs 0,5% oodatud (MoM) ja 1,3% vs 1,0% oodatud (YoY).
Eurotsooni hooajalised tööstustoodangu tellimused 3,8% vs -0,1% oodatud (MoM) ja 22,7% vs 20,0% oodatud (YoY).
Euro sai oodatust parematest näitajatest korralikku tuge: EUR/USD rallis uudiste peale 0,8%, tõustes 100 baaspunkti 1,2770 pealt 1,2870 peale. Naelsterling tõusis dollari vastu samuti 0,8%; hetkel kaupleb paar 1,5286 juures.
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Liikumine 100 pip’i ja 100 baaspunkti on siiski erinevad asjad.
Euro rallis tegelikult juba enne Saksa numberid 50 punkti ja enne EZ PMI avaldamist 11:00 oli pluss päeva tõenäosus 80%. Neid kaarte oleks seganud vaid selgelt negatiivne PMI data. -
Hahaha lähme teisele ringile, GMAC 2.0 beeta:
DETROIT—General Motors Co. said Thursday it will acquire auto-finance company AmeriCredit Corp. in a $3.5 billion deal aimed at increasing availability of auto loans and leases. -
Asto, tänud täpsustuse eest! Mul soovitati kasutada pipsi asemel baaspunkti, kuigi tähendused on erinevad jah. Ja jäin ühtlasi andmete postitamisega hiljaks, seega võtsin liikumise kokku.
Tänud veel kord. -
Esmaste töötuabiraha taotlejate arv oodatuga võrreldes pisut kehvem, kestvate töötuabiraha taotlejate arv oodatuga võrreldes parem, kuid viimast on ilmselgelt mõjutamas abiraha maksmise perioodi lõppemine paljudel pikalt abiraha juba saanud inimestel.
Continuing Claims falls to 4.487 mln from 4.710 mln
Initial Claims 464K vs 445K Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to 427K from 429K -
USA turud alustavad tänast päeva võimsa plussiga. Indeksite futuurid on ca 1.1% kuni 1.3% kõrgemal. Nafta on kerkinud 1.1% ja maagaas 2.3%.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +1.49%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +1.64%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0.88%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1.70%
Rootsi OMX 30 +1.56%
Venemaa MICEX +0.78%
Poola WIG +0.71%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0.62%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +0.50%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +1.07%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.78%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -2.42%
Tai Set 50 +0.28%
India Sensex 30 +0.76% -
Bears Caught Snoozing
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
7/22/2010 8:26 AM EDT
A rule of thumb for a warrior is that he makes his decisions so carefully that nothing that may happen as a result of them can surprise him, much less drain his power.
-- Carlos Castaneda
This market has been very choppy and inconsistent lately and has done a nice job of catching both bulls and bears out of position. It is pulling off another good surprise this morning; this time it is catching the bears leaning the wrong way.
Yesterday a dour Ben Bernanke sucked the energy out of the market and caught the bulls who were excited after a good day on Tuesday. But we had some good earnings reports last night from F5 Networks (FFIV) , Baidu (BIDU) , Qualcomm (QCOM) and several others, and Europe is strong on industrial orders and optimism about bank stress tests.
We were down last night on the earnings reports, which just aren't exciting market players very much so far this quarter no matter how good they might be, but Europe reversed sharply when industrial orders in the eurozone jumped 3.8% for May. Market players were caught by surprise and now the mood has shifted again and the squeeze is on.
Regardless of what the driving forces might be for this action, it simply has not been an easy market to navigate recently. We are going from euphoria to doom and gloom and back again. Seemingly good earnings news is being consistently sold while worry and concern about the economic situation increases. It is a mess out there and sentiment reflects that fact.
A lot of folks are blaming the quick shifts in the market on high-frequency and computerized trading. The fact that stocks are highly correlated and are trading together tends to support that argument, but whatever the cause might be for the volatility, it is our job to find a way to navigate it rather than just sit and complain about it.
My position lately has been that the market is clearly in a downtrend since topping out in late April. I'm going to respect that trend until there is good proof to establish that there is a change in market character. I'll look to play some countertrend bounces when the opportunities arise, but I'm keeping time frames short and stops tight.
Big gaps up like we are seeing this morning will often occur in the context of downtrends. In fact, the biggest and strongest upside moves almost always occur during bear markets and downtrends because market players aren't prepared for them. When we have a sudden jump, like we are seeing this morning, they all scramble to reposition and that just adds to the upside pressure.
The way I approach the market practically guarantees that I won't be heavily long at the exact market low. I won't start to have any significant long positions until we have been strong for a while and are showing signs of uptrending.
Being late to the party doesn't bother me much since I will almost always be far ahead of the game by not trying to jump in prematurely. Avoiding losses is the best way to keep your portfolio steadily growing. The biggest losses most market players suffer is when they buy downtrending stocks too early. As I've written many times, trends almost always last longer than most people think is reasonable. If you try to apply logic and reason to the market, you are asking for trouble.
So while it is a little disconcerting to see a big gap-up open this morning while being defensively positioned, it isn't a cause for any real worry or concern. If the market is ready to make a meaningful turn, it has a lot more work to do. It is too early to trust in the upside. That doesn't mean we don't try some trades if we can find them, but it is not the time to start believing that the trend is about to trade.
We have some economic data coming up this morning and some important earnings reports tonight from Amazon (AMZN) , American Express (AXP) , Chipotle (CMG) , Deckers (DECK) and Microsoft (MSFT) , so the one thing we can sure of is that the action is likely to stay choppy.
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Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: WSTL +16.7%, AKNS +10.5%, ELN +7.3%, FFIV +6.7%, XRX +5.8%, ABB +5.7%, BIDU +5.6%, QCOM +5.1%, STI +4.8%, EW +4.6%, EBAY +3.3%, NOK +3.2%, BANR +2.5%.
M&A news: BXC 35.5% (Cerberus to launch cash tender offer for the outstanding shares in BlueLinx Holdings not owned by its affiliate for $3.40 per share in cash), ACF +22.3% (AmeriCredit to be acquired by GM for $3.5 bln, ~$24.50 per share; all cash transaction), CASY +1.4% (Alimentation Couche-Tard increases offer for Casey's General Stores to $36.75 per share),.
Select financial related names showing strength: LYG +5.8%, NBG +5.6%, ING +5.0%, BBVA +4.7%, STD +4.0%, UBS +3.4%, COF +2.8%, RBS +2.3%, WFC +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform at FBR Capital, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rochdale), BAC +1.8%, C +1.5%, MS +1.5%, GS +1.1%, .
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: MT +4.0%, BBL +3.3%, BHP +2.8%, GOLD +1.8%, RTP +1.6%, GDX +0.7%, .
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: SDRL +3.4%, REP +3.2%, WFT +2.7%, PBR +2.5%, HERO +2.5%, RDS.A +2.3%, TOT +2.1%, BEXP +2.0%, BP +1.4%.
Select drug names trading higher: SNY +2.9%, NVS +1.8%. |
Select solar related names ticking higher in early trade: LDK +6.2%, JASO +4.1%, SPWRA +3.4%, STP +2.9%, TSL +1.3%.
Other news: ROYL +9.5% (makes two new discoveries; drilling surpasses 2009), RCL +4.9% and CCL +3.1% (still checking), SOMX +4.7% (announces acceptance of Phase 3 Clinical Trial Data for Publication in Sleep and Sleep Medicine), RYAAY +3.7% (still checking), ALV +2.8% (still checking), MEE +1.4% (releases methane data from upper big branch mine).
Analyst comments: HGSI +3.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at RW Baird), ATLS +2.2% (initiated with an Outperform at BMO Capital), FCX +2.2% (upgraded to Buy from Sell at Credit Agricole).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SWI -17.5% (also downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), MLNX -12.8%, LTBR -12.1%, CASB -11.8%, NFLX -8.9% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord , ISRG -6.7%, NVEC -5.2%, SYT -4.3%, ISIL -3.4% (light volume), WDC -3.2%, SBUX -2.3%, DO -1.8%.
Other news: UPI -15.3% (announces public offering of common stock), MELA -10.4% (announces FDA needs more time to arrange panel meeting to review MelaFind PMA application), ITRI -4.4% (Hearing weakness related potential contract loss after Esco Tech announced SoCalGas AMI was selected for Negotiations), CSFL -2.0% (announces pricing of common stock offering at $8.50/share), CSTR -1.9% (ticking lower following NFLX results).
Analyst comments: CMTL -1.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham), ODSY -0.5% (downgraded to Negative from Neutral at Susquehanna), -
Eelturul teatatud tulemused olen nüüdseks jõudnud kõik ka meie tulemustetabelisse sisse kanda. Link siin.
S&P500 indeks on samal ajal 1100 punkti "jahil".
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kas selline äärmuslik kõikumine pole hoiatav signaal?
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Oluline roll siinkohal masinate poolt tehtaval kauplemisel.
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House passes bill to extend unemployment benefits
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Today after the close, of the many companies scheduled to report, some of the bigger names include: AMZN, AXP, BUCY, COF, CMG, DECK, ETFC, MSFT, MOS, and SNDK. Tomorrow before the open, of the many companies scheduled to report, some of the bigger names include: F, HON, IR, JCI, ERIC, MCD, MHP, SLB, SPAY, and VZ.
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Goldman Sachs: SEC inspector general is broadening GS investigation into the timing of settlement in civil suite- CNBC
