Börsipäev 23. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Caterpillari, UPS-i ja 3M-i prognoose ületanud majandusraportid ning lisaks veel täiendav tugi oodatust paremast kinnisvarastatistikast USA turul aitasid investoritel unustada eile Bernanke kolmapäevaseid kommentaare riigi majanduse ebakindlast tulevikust. Ehkki päeva alguses pole pikka aega nii tugevat ostukäivet näinud siis päeva keskel suudeti taset edasi hoida juba sisuliselt olematu volume'ga. Sessiooni lõpp tõi taas suuremat kauplemishuvi. Pool tundi tagasi 0,2% plussis olnud futuurid on praeguseks 0,1% miinusesse vajunud.
USA-st täna peale ettevõtete tulemuste suuremat oodata pole, mistõttu dirigeerib sentimenti kell 19.00 avaldatavad Euroopa pankade stresstesti tulemused. Lisaks teatatakse täna kell 11.00 Saksamaa ärikliimat kajastav IFO indeks ning kell 11.30 Suurbritannia teise kvartali SKT näitaja. Viimane peaks ootuste kohaselt näitama 1.1%list kasvu võrreldes aastatagusega ning 0,6%list kasvu võrreldes esimese kvartaliga (Q1 näitajad olid vastavalt -0,2% ja +0,3%).
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Tulemustetabel on taaskord uuenenud ning link sellele on siin. EPSi veerust on näha, et päris paljud ettevõtted suudavad kasumiootusi lüüa.
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UK II kvartali SKT kasvas oodatust rohkem: 1,1% vs oodatud 0,6% (QoQ) ja 1,6% vs oodatud 1,1% (YoY).
GBP/USD rallis enne andmete avaldamist ja uudise peale sai veel hoogu juurde. Paar on hetke seisuga tõusnud tänase päeva jooksul 0,8% ja hetkel kaupleb 1,5380 juures. -
Kui ZEW indeks kajastas hiljuti Saksa investorite suurenenenud skepsist riigi kuue kuu väljavaadete suhtes ning suuremat positiivsust jooksva olukorra hindamisel, olid ettevõtted juuli IFO indeksi põhjal igas perspektiivis selgelt optimistlikumad kui oodati. Üldine IFO indeks kerkis 106,2 peale vs oodatud langus 101,8 pealt 101,5 peale. Jooksvat olukorda kajastav indeks kerkis 106,8-le (oodati 101,8) ja ettevaatav indeks paranes 105, 5-le (oodati 101,6).
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Saksamaa oodatust paremate IFO tulemuste peale sai EUR/USD samuti korraliku tõuke. Paar on tõusnud tänase päevaga 0,55% ja hetkel kaupleb 1,2960 juures.
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Moody's places Hungary's Baa1 sovereign rating under review for possible downgrade
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Ford Motor beats by $0.28, beats on revs
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Verizon prelim $0.58, ex-items, vs $0.56 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $26.77 bln vs $27.11 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
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Eelmisel neljapäeval võttis USA senat vastu finantssüsteemireformiva seaduse Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, millele Obama sel nädalal ka allkirja pani. 16. juuli börsipäevas tegin seadusest ka lühikese kokkuvõtte.
Kuna seadus ise on 2315 lehekülge pikk, siis ei eksisteeri ilmselt veel kedagi, kes selle täismahus oleks läbi lugenud. Sellest hoolimata on välja koorumas huvitavaid lõike, mis seadusemeeste poolt on mahuka teksti sisse pistetud.
Zero Hedge'i vahendusel ilmneb, et USA valitsus plaanib astuda kiirlaenuärisse:
In Section 1205, LOW-COST ALTERNATIVES TO SMALL DOLLAR LOANS we read:
(a) GRANTS AUTHORIZED.—The Secretary is authorized to establish multiyear demonstration programs by means of grants, cooperative agreements, financial agency agreements, and similar contracts or undertakings, with eligible entities to provide low-cost, small loans to consumers that will provide alternatives to more costly small dollar loans.
(b) TERMS AND CONDITIONS.—19 (1) IN GENERAL.—Loans under this section shall be made on terms and conditions, and pursuant to lending practices, that are reasonable for consumers.
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kellegil head kauplemisideed pole pakkuda tänaseks?
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Citigroup: Treasury to sell another 1.5 bln shares of Citi - CNBC
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Tüng
EU STRESS TESTS SAID LIMITED TO BANKS' TRADING BOOK LOSSES -
Palun tõlget
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Maakeeli- stress test ei testi tegelikult halligi
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Turud on olnud terve nädala ootevalmis ja mures Euroopa pankade stress-testi teemal.
Spekuleeriti ja mõeldi, kas meetodid stress-testimiseks on piisavad.
Ikka rõhutati, et tulemus pmst ei olegi oluline, peaasi, et tulemus oleks credible.
Peaasi, et kriteeriumid oleks enamvähemgi adekvaatsed ja asjalikud.
Ja nüüd laksavad headlined, et stress-test ei olegi kogu panka hõlmav inventuur vaid teatud väikest marginaalset jupikest hõlmav ülevaatus. Olukorras kus pangandus-sektrori probleemid on varjutanud kõik muu Euroopas (ja maailmas) on see geniaalne illustratsioon kuidas Euroopa on võtmehetkedel alati võimetu tegutsema. Turud ei tathtnud ju muud kui ainult selget vastust mis pagan toimub Euroopa panganduses. Ei ole ju palju tahetud. Nüüd oleks hea teada saada millises Brüsseli koridorirägastiku toakeses millise udupea idee see oli, et limiteerida oluline stress-test vaid "BANKS' TRADING BOOK LOSSES" peale.
arusaamatuarusaamatuarusaamatu -
European way of doing business.
IMO absoluutselt geniaalne ja puhas näide. Täielik õpikust copy paste. -
USA turgudel on hommikune pluss käest antud ning ES ja NQ kauplevad vastavalt 0.05% ja 0.18% miinuses.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0.54%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 +0.40%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0.25%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0.51%
Rootsi OMX 30 -1.02%
Venemaa MICEX +0.10%
Poola WIG +0.31%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 +2.28%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng +1.10%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +0.38%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) -0.21%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.21%
Tai Set 50 +0.87%
India Sensex 30 +0.10% -
Tricky Times
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
07/23/2010 7:50 AM
Thus, flexibility, as displayed by water, is a sign of life. Rigidity, its opposite, is an indicator of death.-- Anthony Lawler
For the second day in a row, good economic data have the market percolating higher in the early going. This time, it was the business climate index in Germany and gross domestic product data in the U.K. that came in above expectations. That is helping to offset the weakness we had last night on earnings reports, but keep in mind that we are awaiting the release of the European bank stress tests later today.There has been a high level of optimism about the stress tests, and we have probably been pricing that in. So, we'll have to be watching for a sell-the-news reaction when the bank news hits around noon EDT today.
Earnings reports last night were quite mixed, with disappointments from the likes of Amazon (AMZN - commentary - Trade Now), SanDisk (SNDK - commentary - Trade Now), Capital One (COF - commentary - Trade Now) and QLogic (QLGC - commentary - Trade Now). However, Ford (F - commentary - Trade Now) came in solidly this morning, and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Trade Now) is up a little after an upgrade. The indices were quite weak last night as reports came in, but we are looking better this morning after the upbeat action overseas.
The action yesterday caught many market players by surprise, which gave the move some heft, as many underinvested bulls scrambled to add positions. Many were ill-prepared for the sudden spike up, especially after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had put the freeze on the action during his Congressional appearance on Wednesday. It was a typical bear-market spike, which has added zest, because folks just aren't ready for it.
The big question now is whether we can build further on that spike and maybe even end this downtrend that has been in place since April. The first big obstacle for the bulls is the 1100 level on the S&P500. That is where we failed last week, and it's where we stopped yesterday.
I'm looking for 1100 to be pierced, which will trigger buy stops and bring in bulls worried that they are going to miss a change in trend. Once that happens, I'm looking for further upside to become much tougher.
The really big technical obstacles are the 200-day simple moving average of the S&P500, which is at 1113, and the June high, which is at 1131. Those are the levels that need to be broken to really prompt a change in market character. We are at an important juncture as we move through 1100, and if the bulls really have the juice they exhibited yesterday, these resistance levels will fall fairly fast. I'm not convinced yet that a change in character is imminent, but I'm keeping an open mind and am not looking to mount shorts unless we see some persistent weakness once again.
This has been a tricky market, as we have had alternating days of very good and very bad action. One day, it looks like we are about to fall apart, and the next, it is like we don't have a worry in the world. It makes it tough to build. Hold on to sizable positions and you'll be whipsawed if you set stops too tight.
I'm continuing to give the bulls some room to prove themselves, and I'm taking some short-term long-side trades, but I'm doing very little as far as building longer-term positions. I'm concerned that as earnings season winds down, we are going to lose them as a positive catalysts and that we'll roll over again. However, there are still hundreds of reports to come over the next two weeks, and that can add a lot of uncertainty, especially as we deal with significant technical overhead.
In summary, I'm leaning bullish, but staying very flexible. I'm not overly optimistic that we'll have enough buying power to shift the intermediate market trend to positive. I'll try to knock out some trades while I can, but I'll be fast to hit the eject button if we begin to falter.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark held no positions in the stocks mentioned.
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The Euro suffers on the back of a perception that the European bank stress tests may have been "too soft". This perception is derived from a draft ECB document which says that the stress test haircuts have been "applied to the trading book portfolios only, as no default assumption was considered" (Bloomberg). The stress test results will be unveiled at 16:00GMT
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UR and yields were bashed by a Bloomberg story saying that the haircuts will only be on trading and not held-to-maturity securities because there is no default assumption applied. The story says the ECB document was confidential.
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*EUR
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My guess: sell-off päeva lõpuni. "Positiivne" katalüsaator on väljas, mis sest, et see midagi ei öelnud.. reaktsioon on suht olematu.. ja isegi sellest algklasside eksamist suutsid mõned läbi kukkuda.
PS Ma panen selliste ennustustega 100% viltu :D -
Kui keegi tahab veel mu häid mõtteid turu suuna kohta kuulda, siis subscription maksab 1000 taala kuus. Tuleb ainult meelde jätta, et tuleb tegutseda vastupidiselt minu arvamustele.
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fair enough
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jim kas see oli sinu sisetunne ? :)
Kui mina oma sisetunnet ei usalda ja tegutsen sellele vastupidiselt, siis saan vastu pükse aga börsil ei ole ju mitte midagi pistmist sisetundega. :D
