Börsipäev 30. juuli
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Eilne sessioon kujunes USA börsidel võrdlemisi närviliseks, kui investorite tähelepanu liikus ettevõtete majandustulemustelt uuesti makromajandusele ning eelkõige just tänasele teise kvartali SKT avaldamisele kell 15.30, mis konsensuse arvates peaks näitama 2.6%list annualiseeritud QoQ kasvu (esimeses kvartalis 2.7%). Aasia sentiment on samuti negatiivne, eesotsas Hiina ja Jaapaniga. Viimase eksporditööstusele on jätkuvat peavalu valmistamas jeeni tugevnemine dollari suhtes, jõudes tänaseks kõrgeimale tasemele alates detsembrist. Üks paljudest, kelle viimase kvartali majandustulemustele jeeni kallinemine tuntavat mõju avaldas, on näiteks Nintendo. Eile raporteeriti esimese kvartali kahjumiks 25.2 miljardit jeeni, millest -70.5 miljardit moodustas ühekordne valuutakõikumisest tingitud kahjum. Antud perioodil oli dollar jeeni suhtes nõrgenenud 93.04 pealt 88.48 peale. Sony on näiteks öelnud, et nad kaotavad ligikaudu 7 miljardit jeeni oma aastasest ärikasumist euro suhtes langeva ühe jeeni pealt ja 2 miljardit jeeni dollari suhtes langeva ühe jeeni pealt. Samas näitas Sony hiljuti oma kasumiprognoosi tõstes, et jeeni tugevnemist suudetakse siiski taluda.
USD/JPY graafik
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Lisaks USA SKT-le on teisel pool Atlandit makrouudistest laual veel Chicago PMI (kl 16.45) ja Michigani tarbijasentimenti indikaator (kl 16.45). Euroopas jäävad eurotsooni juulikuu inflatsiooninäit ja töötusemäär (kl 12.00) sentimenti kujundamisel pigem ebaoluliseks. USA eelturul on jätkumas suhteliselt närviline liikumine. SP500 futuur käis hetkeks ära nullis, kuid on nüüd vajunud tagasi 0.3% punasesse.
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Merriman on alates jaanuarist iga nädal IMAXi aktsiat "Sell" reitinguga trampinud, kuid oodatust kiiremini kasvav tellimusteraamat sundis neid eile oma prognoose üle vaatama ning nüüd ollakse väljas "neutral" soovitusega. Merrimani teksti leiab Barron'si subscriptioniga siit
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USA majanduse kasv aeglustus teises kvartalis oodatust rohkem. Samas revideeriti esimese neljandiku näitu üles 3.7% peale. Mäletatavasti oli esmane näit 3.2% ja hiljem pärast kolmandat revideerimist juba 2.7% ning ühtäkki tagasi 3.7% peale. Seega tänanegi number võib tulevikus oluliselt erineda.
Q2 GDP- advanced +2.4% vs +2.5% Briefing.com consensus; Q1 +3.7%
Q2 Chain Deflator- advanced +1.8% vs +1.1% Briefing.com consensus; Q1 1.1%
Q1 GDP revised higher to +3.7% from +2.7%
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USA futuurid hetkel protsendi jagu miinusesse vajunud
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Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0.49%
Pantsusmaa CAC 40 -0.45%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0.53%
Hispaania IBEX 35 -1.27%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0.53%
Venemaa MICEX -1.46%
Poola WIG +0.37%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1.64%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0.30%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) -0.40%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0.00%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -0.23%
Tai Set 50 -0.06%
India Sensex 30 -0.69% -
Indecision Reigns
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
07/30/2010 7:51 AM
"Indecision is the seedling of fear"
-- Napoleon Hill
We have a particularly tricky trading environment right now as the market tries to make up its mind whether it is going give us our fourth failed bounce since the top in April or put an end to the downtrend we've been in since then. We are jumping around in almost random fashion as the level of indecision is extremely high.
Earnings season hasn't helped matters. It has been full of landmines, and last night was no exception, with some nasty sell-the-news reactions to reports from the likes of Thoratec (THOR - commentary - Trade Now), Acme Packet (APKT - commentary - Trade Now), Coinstar (CSTR - commentary - Trade Now), Cavium Networks (CAVM - commentary - Trade Now) and Conexant Systems (CNXT - commentary - Trade Now). There were some positive reactions as well, but the primary theme of second-quarter earnings has been to sell reports, particularly in the technology sector, no matter how good some of them have appeared to be.
The pressure on the semiconductor sector recently has been particularly troublesome since many of these companies have posted the best earnings numbers and look cheap on forward estimates. The bears tell us that this reaction is because we are at the peak of the cycle and that things are only going to slow down from here. The action in some of these stocks seems to suggest that there is some truth to the assertion.
Since the bottom in March 2009 earnings have been consistently quite positive. If you simply read quarterly reports, you wouldn't have much sense of the economic chaos that we have experienced during that time. Earnings really boosted us nicely, especially a year ago when we were in the early stages of turning up, but now there is much more worry about the potential for another soft economic patch or even something worse.
With earnings mostly out of the way, we are going to be very focused on economic reports. If they continue to be soft, I believe there is a very high risk that we will take out the lows of the year that we hit in July. The fact that we are entering the seasonally weakest time of the year for the market from August through October is not going to help matters. To add to the obstacles, there is going to be intense political debate over the health of the economy as we approach the November midterm election.
Later today, we have advance GDP, Chicago PMI and the University of Michigan sentiment survey. That will set the tone of trading, but it is also the last day of the month, so that is going to add a good bit of choppiness as well.
Yesterday was a particularly tricky day, with several quick shifts as the mood ping-ponged from euphoria to panic. High levels of instability like that often indicate that we are at a turning point. When we combine that with the fact that we are struggling with overhead resistance around the 200-day simple moving average, we need to be very vigilant and watch for further downside pressure to develop.
As I've mentioned, I've been positioned very neutrally for a few days now as I wait for the market to give us some clearly indication of direction. We looked pretty good for another leg up at the open yesterday, but the way that fizzled was very negative. We did come back nicely, but it had the feel of end-of-the-month and computerized manipulation rather than pure accumulation.
It is a summer Friday, which means that volume will likely be low, but it also the last day of the month, so expect some randomness to the trading today. It is a good time to be very selective with trades as the environment is very muddled.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned. -
Briefing.com vahendusel:
Ülespoole avanevad:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MCBC +46.1%, PWER +18.5%, ALU +11.2%, MXWL +10.6%, TUNE +10.3%, HLIT +8.9% (light volume), DDIC +6.5%, AXTI +6.3%, CPSI +6.3%, TRID +6.1%, QSFT +5.8%, GPRO +5.0% (light volume), IXYS +4.5% (light volume), EMN +4.2%, SUN +4.1%, ACI +4.0%, SWIR +3.6%, MET +3.5%, ROVI +3.4%, MXIM +3.3%, EXPE +3.0%, HTHT +2.3% (light volume), TSRA +2.2%, AXL +1.7%, SYNA +1.0%.
M&A news: CRL +6.4% (Charles River and WuXi PharmaTech to terminate their previously announced acquisition agreement; CRL approves $500 mln stock repurchase plan),.
Other news: GERN +13.3% (to proceed with first human clinical trial of embryonic stem cell-based therapy), OREX +10.5% (reported patients taking Contrave were two to three times more likely to lose at least 5-10% of their body weight compared to those taking placebo), HLCS +7.0% (thinly traded; confirms publication of demonstration using Helicos' single-molecule sequencing technology), SHOO +3.2% (will replace inVentiv Health in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), SOLR +3.5% (acquires Sapphire Producer Crystal Systems for $24 mln in cash, 5.4 mln shares of common stock, and a $21 mln cash earn-out), NFLX +3.0% (early strength attributed to upgrade at tier 1 firm), BIDU +1.0% (says web search service availability in China fully blocked, according to CNBC).
Analyst comments: AU +1.1% (initiated with a Hold at Citigroup), ARRS +0.9% (upgraded to Hold from Underperform at Jefferies).
Allapoole avanevad:
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: TNAV -29.4% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan), APKT -14.0%, THOR -13.0%, WFR -11.2% (also downgraded to Underperform from Buy at Credit Agricole, downgraded to Sell from Buy at Wunderlich), VITC -9.5%, CAVM -9.3%, WPCS -9.3% (thinly traded), TSYS -9.2%, LNET -9.1% (light volume), NTRI -8.8%, CSTR -8.5%, FNBN -6.3% (thinly traded), CNXT -6.0%, AUTH -5.2% (light volume), GNW -3.7%, CTCT -3.4%, WYNN -3.2%, OCLR -2.8%, MRK -2.2%, FSLR -2.0%, VALE -1.1%, AMGN -1.0%, PTV -0.9%.
M&A news: WX -2.4% (Charles River and WuXi PharmaTech to terminate their previously announced acquisition agreement).
Select financial related names showing weakness: RDN -4.8%, ING -3.7%, IRE -2.5%, AIB -2.4%, NBG -2.4%, RF -2.4%, MBI -2.1%, BBT -1.8%, MI -1.7%, HBAN -1.7%, WFC -1.6%, FITB -1.5%, C -1.5%, BPOP -1.4%, MS -1.4%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: MT -2.1%, RTP -1.7%, BBL -1.7%, BHP -1.4%.
Select solar names under pressure following FSLR results: JASO -2.5%, SOLF -2.4%, TSL -2.3%, LDK -2.0%, SPWRA -1.7% (light volume).
Other news: GFRE -8.0% (files for $120 mln mixed securities shelf offering), TLAB -3.9% (still checking), GOOG -1.0% (says web search service availability in China fully blocked, according to CNBC), LVS -0.9% (trading lower with WYNN).
Analyst comments: TSYS -4.6% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), BJ -2.3% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Cowen), HAL -2.0% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at FBR Capital), SHPGY -1.4% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), CL -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman- removed from Conviction Buy list).
