Börsipäev 15. oktoober
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Lisaks oodatust suuremale esmase töötuabiraha taotluste arvule ning USA kasvavale jooksevkonto defitsiidile oli turgu täiendavalt rõhumas finantssektor foreclosure probleemide tõttu (XLF -1,78%), ent suurem osa miinusest viimasel tunni siiski likvideeriti ning päeva lõpetasid indeksid marginaalse kaotusega. S&P 500 -0,4%, Dow 0%, Nasdaq -0,2%. S&P500 ja Dow futuurid hetkel kauplemas 0,1%, Nasdaq 0,4% kõrgemal.
Kerge kasumivõtt on täna hommikul olnud ka Aasias, va Hiinas, kus indeksid on tugevas plussis eesotsas finantssektoriga, mille tugevust Citigroup hiljuti oma analüüsis välja tõi. Ühtlasi on renminbi kallinenud dollari vastu viimasel nädalal 0,4%, soodustades muuhulgas kohalike lennukompaniide väljavaateid, kuna nende võlg on valdavalt dollarites.
USD/CNY
Euroopast täna taas olulist makrot oodata pole (kinnitatakse eurotsooni septembri inflatsiooni näit, mis peaks ühtima esialgse hinnanguga) ning tähelepanu langeb USA-le. Kell 15.15 peab Bernanke kõne teemal „Monetary Policy Objectives and Tools in a Low-Inflation Environment”, kus otsitakse vihjed, mida keskpank võiks järgmise QE raames lisaks valitsuse võlakirjadele ostma hakata. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse septembrikuu tarbijahinnaindeks, jaemüüginäitajad ning NY Fed Empire manufacturing survey, kell 16.55 Michigani tarbijasentimendiindeks ning kell 17.00 ettevõtete laovarude muutus.
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Erko
Võiksid sa lähemalt tutvustada, mis probleemid on nende tagastatavate elukohtadega. Pangad ei suuda teenindada? -
Jon Stewart "Foreclosure Crisis", October 7, 2010
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-october-7-2010/foreclosure-crisis -
stocker,
Viimasel ajal on meediasse jõudnud igasuguseid lugusid sellest, kuidas pangad üsna ebahumaansete võtetega inimesi tänavale tõstavad. Sealhulgas on juhtumeid, kus hüpoteeklaenu võtjad on teinud korralikult tagasimakseid aga sellegipoolest tuldi majal lukkusid vahetama. Ühes loos toodi välja case, kus maja elanik polnud teadlik, et tema eluase on juba uuele inimesele maha müüdud. See aga viitab lohakale paberitööle ja võib-olla isegi ebaseaduslikule tegevusele, mida riigiesindajad on suurenenud kaebuste tõttu põhjalikumalt uurima hakanud. Ühtlasi viivad pangad läbi ise sisejuurdlusi, peatades selleks ajaks kogu foreclosure'te protsessi. Tegelikult pole kellelgi aimu, kui suureks või väikeseks kogu see teema osutub, varieerudes pakkumistest, mis hindavad seda lühiajaliseks tõrkeks kuni seisukohtadeni, et sellest võib kujuneda uus kriis.
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Föderaalreserv ja USA valitsus on kulutanud sadu miljardeid dollareid uue kriisi ärahoidmiseks. Huvitav, kas seda foreclosure'ite jama ja mitmete pangaaktsiate kukkumist 1.5 aasta põhjade juurde julgetakse tõesti lihtsalt kõrvalt vaadata?
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Ei julgeta! QE2 esialgne maht tõstetakse 1trln pealt 2 trln peale. Varahinnad peavad tõusma. Varahindade kukkumist ei saa lubada.
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Google raporteeris eile pärast turgu kolmanda kvartali majandustulemused, mille kohaselt kasvas perioodi käive mullusega võrreldes 25% 5,48 miljardi dollarini vs oodatud 5,27 mld USD. Kolme kuu aktsiakasum tuli samuti korralikult üle ootuste, olles 7,64 dollarit aktsia kohta vs oodatud 6,68 USD. Mitmed analüüsimajad on tänu prognoositust parematele Q3 trendidele tõstmas nii selle kui järgmise aasta EPSi ja paralleelselt ka hinnasihti (Citi: 620>725; RBC Capital 600>690; Jefferies 680>700; JPM 569>625). Siin on GS-i kommentaar:
(1) Google disclosed that 3Q annualized display revenue was over $2.5 bn, similar to our 2010 estimate of $2.6 bn, and mobile revenue was over $1.0 bn, similar to our 2010 estimate of $0.9 bn, so these activities are already about one-eighth of Google’s revenue and one-quarter of its revenue growth. We expect display gains to slow to a 30% 2010E-2013E CAGR
(Google is almost at Yahoo!’s display revenue run rate of about $2.5 bn, though Yahoo! is more US-dependent and accounts for ad exchanges differently) while mobile may sustain a 60%-plus CAGR.
(2) Negatives from results were guidance for a substantial increase in stock-based compensation and management commentary that Google Instant is generating limited incremental revenue while incurring additional capex. We incorporate small Instant benefits in our forecast for 12% qoq revenue growth in 4Q2010.
(3) We raise our 2010E/2011E/2012E revenue by 2%-6% and EPS by 4% to account for 3Q upside; our new EPS estimates are $29.59/$34.09/$38.54.Valuation
Given higher earnings estimates and first-time disclosure of the size of new growth activities, we raise our six-month, DCF-based target price to $700 (from $625), equivalent to 21X our 2011E and 18X our 2012E EPS. -
General Electric beats by $0.02, misses on revs; sees industrial revs flat YoY, with growth QoQ (17.16)
Reports Q3 (Sep) earnings of $0.29 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.02 better than the Thomson Reuters consensus of $0.27; revenues fell 5.1% year/year to $35.89 bln vs the $37.54 bln consensus. GE Capital Services' revenues fell 2% vs last year to $12.5 bln. Industrial sales were $23.6 bln, down 6% from 3Q09. Revs were impacted by lower equipment sales and reduced GE Capital assets. GE expects Q4 2010 Industrial revs to grow QoQ from Q3 and to be about flat with the year-ago period. "For the first time in eight quarters, we saw growth in both equipment and service orders. Equipment orders increased 9%, including 33% growth in Technology Infrastructure... Third-quarter 2010 results should give investors confidence that a renewed GE should grow earnings and dividends in 2011 and beyond... GE Capital is well positioned with respect to Basel III capital requirements and we expect earnings growth in our financial services business to continue."
GE aktsia eelturul -2,4% punases
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Potash (POT) follow up: As mentioned eariler, news reports indicate that China's Sinochem will no longer counterbid for POT... POT trading at 145.00 in pre-mkt
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Apple'i (AAPL) uus kõrgeim hinnasiht tuleb täna hommikul Daniel Ernstilt - $300 pealt tõsteti siht $500 peale. Link.
Apple teatab oma tulemused esmaspäeval pärast turgu.
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Siin on Potashi kohta Reutersi lugu. BHP pakkumine siis 130 USD aktsia kohta
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USA väikeinvestorite seas läbiviidav AAII sentimenti küsitlus näitab, et pullide osakaal on jätkuvalt väga kõrge, kui 47,1% usub aktsiate hinnatõusu järgneva kuue kuu jooksul. Tegemist on kuuenda järjestikuse nädalaga, kui näitaja on olnud üle ajaloolise keskmise, mis on 39%.
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Fed's Bernanke says given the Committee's objectives, there would appear--all else being equal--to be a case for further action
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EUR/USD tõusu ja US futuurid järgi.
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Australian dollar hits parity with U.S. dollar for first time since 1982
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Treasury yields falling after Bernanke text is released
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ES spikes ~9 punkti (~50k lepingut->korralik käive)ja kõik muu liigub käsikäes üles.
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Google (GOOG) tgt raised to $650 from $600 at Stifel following blow-out Q3
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ES jätkab ronimist, hetkel +0,43%, samal ajal aga EUR/USD 1,413 (+0,3%)
September Core CPI M/M 0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus, prior 0.0%
September CPI Y/Y +1.1%, Core CPI Y/Y +0.8%
October NY Fed- Empire Manufacturing Survey 15.73 vs 5.75 Briefing.com consensus, September 4.10
September Retail Sales ex-auto +0.4% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to +1.0% from +0.6%
September Retail Sales +0.6% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to +0.7% from +0.4% -
Google (GOOG) upgraded to Buy at Caris & Company; tgt raised to $700
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30-yr yield spikes to 3.95% following economic data
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nagu hommikul välja tõin, võib foreclosure'te teema areneda ettearvamatus suunas ning hetkel osatakse välja käia vaid stsenaariumeid. Siin on Citi kommentaar (Adam Levitin):
Three Potential Outcomes — Levitin articulated three possible outcomes to the aforementioned issues and assigned an equal likelihood to each. In his best case scenario, these issues are deemed merely technical in nature and are successfully resolved but it takes at least year to do so and all foreclosures are delayed by at least a year. Levitin disputed the claim by banks that these issues can be resolved in a month or so and attributed the banks’ claims to “legal posturing.” In the medium case scenario, litigation ensues and it takes years to sort out these matters. In the worst case scenario, the aforementioned issues become a “systemic problem” which causes the mortgage market to grind to a halt as title insurers refuse to insure mortgages involving existing homes.
What Happens Next?
Our speaker predicted that more and more lenders are likely to stop their foreclosure processes in both judicial and non-judicial states. He also expects more states’ attorney generals to get involved. At the federal level, it is possible than banking regulators might step in as there is legal and reputational risk for the banks involved.Ultimately, if these issues do in fact escalate, the Administration may try to broker some sort of settlement. If such deal brokering does take place, Levitin believes that “some payment” will be exacted from the lenders and servicers. The Administration could bargain for more mortgage principal write downs.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MAT -8.1%, GE -2.0%, CGC -1.9%, CBST -1.4%, INFY -1.4%, JBHT -0.5%.
M&A news: POT -0.5% (under pressure in early trade following reports that Sinochem has dropped its plan to bid for the company).
Select metals/mining related stocks trading lower: GSS -1.9%, NG -1.6%, SLW -1.1%, SLT -1.1%, SSRI -1.0%, HL -0.9%, ABX -0.6%, GG -0.6%, NEM -0.5%.
Other news: ANDS -12.0% (to sell shares of its common stock in underwritten public offering; downgraded to Hold at ThinkEquity), JCP -1.7% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), QLGC -1.2% (early weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), .
Analyst comments: LULU -1.6% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), URBN -1.5% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at KeyBanc), LFT -0.7% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham).
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: GOOG +9.1%, FHN +5.4% (light volume), AMD +3.2%.
M&A news: STX +19.8% (announces preliminary interest regarding a going private transaction), HWK +1.3% (Carlisle Cos to acquire Hawk Corporation in an all-cash accretive transaction for $50/share).
Select financial related names trading modestly higher: NBG +2.7% (trading ex dividend), RBS +2.4%, BCS +2.2%, LYG +1.3%, DB +0.9%, STD +0.8%.
Select mortgage insurers seeing continued strength: PMI +2.4%, RDN +2.1%.
Select STX computer storage device peers are trading higher: WDC +8.5%, HTCH +3.7%, XRTX +3.7%, STEC +1.7%, NTAP +1.5%, SNDK +0.3%, .
Other news: DSCO +18.4% (announces completion of Phase 2a Study of Aerosolized KL4 surfactant in cystic fibrosis), ATEC +16.3% (light volume, still checking), MIPI +15.6% (thinly traded; presents positive data from clinical studies comparing Trofex and ProstaScint for detection of metastatic prostate cancer), TGB +8.7% (rebounding from yesterday's intraday drop; announced last night that they are unaware of any information that would cause the price of the its stock to change materially), GPOR +5.3% (will replace American Physicians Capital in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), YGE +3.3% (announces new 700 MW capacity expansion projects ), BIDU +3.2% (up in sympathy with GOOG), MNKD +3.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), PPC +2.7% (still checking), YHOO +2.4% (continued strength; also boosted by GOOG results), QTM +1.5% (continued strength from yesterday's 10% pop), SNY +1.0% (Teriflunomide successfully reduces relapses and is well tolerated in multiple sclerosis patients; Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TXN +0.7% (announced its first wafer fabrication facility in China), .
Analyst comments: INFN +6.8% (added to Top Picks Live list at Citigroup), WFMI +2.3% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), SMSI +2.3% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan ), BBVA +1.5% (initiated with an Outperform at Macquarie), CRM +0.9% (initiated with Outperform at BMO Capital).
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S&P 500 ja Dow futuurid indikeerimas avanemist 0,2% kõrgemal, Nasdaq aga 0,6% plusspoolel.
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX +0,76%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,41%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 +0,07%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +0,22%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,25%
Venemaa MICEX +0,57%
Poola WIG -0,06%Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -0,87%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,40%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodumaine) +3,19%
Hiina Shanghai B (välismaine) +0,91%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq +0,99%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,21%
Tai Set 50 +0,48%
India Sensex 30 -1,82% -
Rev Shark: Good GOOG Gooses the Bulls
10/15/2010 7:18 AMWhoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce.
-- President James A. GarfieldA strong earnings report from Google (GOOG - commentary - Trade Now) and a potential takeover of Seagate (STX - commentary - Trade Now) has futures up this morning, but the mood has cooled a little bit. The market's initial response to GOOG last night was quite euphoric, but GOOG has a history of marching to its own drummer and doesn't generally tend to generate much sympathetic reaction in the broader market.
We continue to be primarily focused on quantitative easing and the dollar. Fed chief Ben Bernanke is speaking in Boston this morning, and there is a little nervousness that we may have already priced in the impact of further quantitative easing. The market wants reassurance that Ben and his crew are going to go big and fast on "QE 2." Any hesitation or hedging about it is going to make this market nervous. No earnings report or economic news is as important as continued reassurance that QE is coming soon.
Obviously the Google report is a positive and should help Internet-related names, but GE (GE - commentary - Trade Now) is a bit of a disappointment this morning, which is weighing on financials. Financials have been the soft spot in this market lately due to the continuing angst over the mortgage foreclosure problems, but hope for QE 2 has been powerful enough to keep the problems with the bank action contained.
We had some softness in the action yesterday, but after the run we have had recently, it amounted to little more than some healthy consolidation. The uptrend is still well intact and we have plenty of downside support in place to provide a cushion. The bears will have to be quite aggressive to do some damage to this market, and lately they have had no conviction at all.
It is a bit worrisome that so many market players are so confident that QE 2 is going to keep us driving us higher and higher, but anyone trying to fight the Fed lately has been steamrolled. There is no shortage of critics of further quantitative easing, but the market right now is embracing the very simple logic that if the Fed pumps more cash into the economy, it is going to be used to buy stocks.
At some point QE 2 will be priced into the market and the action will become more unstable. If we stay focused on the action in the dollar, we will likely have some advance warning. When the dollar starts to rally, it is a sign that that the world is starting to think that QE 2 has been adequately discounted by the market.
As long as QE 2 is hanging out there, it is going to be very difficult to be aggressive with shorts for very long. It is going to be trotted out as defense against any pullback. In addition, the dip-buyers continue to enjoy great success and there is no reason for them not to stop doing their thing. Buying weakness has consistently worked for about six weeks now, and market players will always stick with what has worked recently.
We have a positive open on the way and CPI, retail sales and sentiment reports on the way. The bulls are riding the trend, and GOOG and QE 2 are keeping it going. Until some cracks develop, there is little reason to fight the upbeat action.
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Midagi on siin turul väga valesti, finants teist päeva mega surve all. BAC-il 2 päevaga üle 10% juukselõikus. Varsti saame teada, mis üllatus tulemas on.
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ES futuuris tund aega 5 minuti tulpades ~50-60k käibega müüki antud. See juba suht erakordne!
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Misiganes kõrvailu siit kuuldavale ei tule, vastupidiste positsioonidega on hetkel päris kena sees olla, nii kõva laks ikka ei tule, et mul maakler uksed kinni paneks :)
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Google (GOOG) target raised to $720 from $685 at UBS - following strong Q3 rev with expenses in check
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Küsiks vilunumate käest, et kas BAC puhul oleks hetkel mõistlikum kaotus (~ -9%) vastu võtta, et pigem ettearvamatu olukord ja kukub veelgi?
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Apple on täna moodustamas taaskord uusi tippe. Paistab, et vägisi tahetakse $310 piiri ületada. All on kuvatud viimase 2 kauplemissessiooni päevasisene aktsiagraafik.
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Bloombergis tehakse juttu Hiina jüaanist, mis jätkab OSK Investment Bank hinnangul kallinemist järk-järgult. Teatavasti levib turgudel spekulatsioon, et Hiina on taaskord tõstmas pankade reservi määrasid, mis on ajalooliselt vaadatuna tähendanud dollari kallinemist jüaani suhtes. Alloleval graafikul on kujutatud pankade reservi määrad ning dollari/jüaani valuutavahetuslepingud. Bloombergi 24 majandusteadlase sõnul kallineb jüaan dollari suhtes käesoleva aasta lõpuks praeguselt tasemelt 0.3%. Analüütikud prognoosivad, et reservi määrasid tõstab Hiina valitsus 0.5 protsendipunkti.
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Headlines crossing wires indicating that the Treasury may delay the release of the currency report
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Ja taas ES futuuris kõrge käibega müüki 30 min. Kui viimasel ajal liigutati turgu üles pigem käibega futuuris, nagu ka mitmeid kordi mainitud, siis tänane päev vastupidine. Futuuris müük kõrge käibega ja üles tiksutakse tunduvalt madalama käibega.
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Steve Santelli CNBC peal väitis, et FED on kohe möödumas Hiinast, kui USA suurimast võlausaldajast.
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30-yr yield climbs above 4.00%
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September Treasury Budget -$34.5 bln vs -$33.5 bln Briefing.com consensus, September 2009 -$45.2 bln
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Steve Santelli CNBC peal väitis, et FED on kohe möödumas Hiinast, kui USA suurimast võlausaldajast.
Väga huvitav....
http://www.mrc.org/bmi/articles/2010/Santellis_Simple_Answer_to_Deficit_Stop_Spending_Stop_Spending_Stop_Spending.html
