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Börsipäev 14. jaanuar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Veel nädala alguses enne Euroopa perifeeriariikide võlakirjaoksjoneid oldi euro suhtes küllalt skeptilised ning tõin siis välja, et UBS soovitas lühiajalise treidina shortida eurot $1,29 tasemelt. Paljudel tuli ilmselt eile oma lühikesi positsioone katta, pärast oodatust edukamalt sujunud võlakirjade müüke ning Trichet’i kommentaare inflatsiooni osas, mis osade arvates suurendasid tõenäosust intressimäärade tõstmiseks aasta teises pooles. Euro tugevnes dollari suhtes eile ligi 2% ning on jätkanud kallinemist täna 0,1% võrra tasemele $1,3375.

    Tänases makrokalendris vääriks suuremat tähelepanu eurotsooni detsembrikuu lõplik inflatsiooninäit (12.00), USA detsembri inflatsioon ja jaemüük (kl 15.30), tööstustoodang ja tootmisvõimsuse rakendamismäär (16.15). Kell 16.55 avalikustatakse jaanuarikuu Michigani ülikooli tarbijasentimendi indeks.

    Enne USA turgude avanemist teatab oma kvartalitulemused JPMorgan.
  • Hiinas on liikvele jäänud kuulujutud järjekordsest intressimäärade või kohustusliku reservmääära tõstmisest, mis võidakse teatavaks teha kõige varem juba täna või käesoleval nädalavahetusel. Shanghai Composite sulgus 1,3% madalamal, kergelt nõrgem on ka toorainete turg.
  • Euro suhtes on analüüsimajade nägemused jätkuvalt väga erinevad. Eile näiteks käis Goldmani FX meeskond taktikalise ideena välja minna euros pikaks sihiga 1,37 USD stopiga 1,2850 USD. Ent need, kes on Goldmani FX ideid viimase aasta jooksul jälginud, siis tegelikkus on kujunenud täpselt vastupidiseks.

    Our view has long been that European sovereign tensions will ultimately abate on a combination of better fiscal coordination, support from the strong Eurozone countries for the periphery, solid growth in the Eurozone as a whole and signs of reform success in the periphery. As we have highlighted as well, this process is not a linear one and temporary setbacks are likely, but also necessary to maintain the reform momentum.


    Morgan Stanley seevastu oli eile väljas karusema nägemusega ning soovitab taktikalise ideena müüja eurot pärast viimaste päevade rallit lühikeseks.

    EUR has strengthened in recent sessions, buoyed by investment interest from Asia, robust demand in euro-area debt auctions, and a hawkish tone from ECB’s Trichet. Coupled with weakening USD momentum following last Friday’s payrolls and Thursday’s poor claims data, EUR/USD has propelled back above 1.33. We think that the reaction to these events is overdone and current levels are more attractive for re-establishing shorts. We enter a short EUR/USD trade today, with a 10% allocation.
    The fundamental factors driving our core views have not changed. Although European sovereign risks seem to have abated for the time being, we expect them to resurface again in coming weeks. The European redemption schedule is extremely heavy this quarter and even if EUR sees a relief rally on issuances, the long term debt problems remain unsolved (please see EUR: Weakness is More Than Issuance on page 8 for more details).
    Furthermore, the latest data releases out of the core economies are also showing more soft spots, with notable misses in German retail sales and IP. These factors will limit EUR/USD upside, in our view. We target 1.27, initially, with a stop at 1.35. This brings our portfolio’s total short EUR exposure up to 20%, which represents our highest conviction view
    .

    Morgan Stanley'lt üsna kasulik kalender edasistest võlakirjaemissioonidest Euroopas, kust on näha, et kriitilisem on just aasta esimene pool.
  • Eile, peale turu sulgumist andis kasumihoiatuse Coinstar (CSTR).

    Coinstar Inc Reports prelim Q4 $0.65-0.69 v $0.84e, Rev $391M v $425Me (previously guided Q4 $0.79-0.85, R$415-440M on 10/28)
    Guides FY11 $2.60-3.10 (GAAP), R$1.7-1.85B v $1.9Be


    Aktsia kukkus järelturul kuni 30% miinusesse ca $39 tasemele, kuid hiljem siiski taastus natuke ning tõusis $43 taseme alla.
  • USA väikeinvestorite sentimendiindeks tuli käesoleval nädalal pisut madalamale, kuid ajalooliseid tasemeid vaadates seilatakse jätkuvalt väga kõrgel optimismilainel. Nende investorite osakaal, kes usuvad aktsiaturgude langusesse järgmise kuue kuu jooksul, kasvas nädalaga 5,2 protsendipunkti võrra 23,4% peale, mis on nelja nädala kõrgeim tase, kuid näitaja püsib jätkuvalt alla ajaloolise keskmise.
  • Jätku on saamas ka Genzyme (GENZ) ülevõtu saaga ja tänane Reuters kirjutab, et Sanofi-Aventis loodab tehingu viia lõpuni hinnaga $76 aktsia eest (esialgne pakkumine oli $69 aktsia eest).
    GENZ aktsia eilne sulgumishind oli $72,36.
  • Suurbritannia tootjate sisendhinnad kasvasid detsembris 3,4% vs oodatud 1,7% ja aastases lõikes oli kasv 12,5% vs oodatud 10,2%.
    Tootjate väljundite hinnad kasvasid samal ajal 0,5% vs oodatud 0,4% ja aastases lõikes 4,2% vs oodatud 3,9%.
  • Eurotsooni novembrikuu kaubandusbilanss tuli €1,9 miljardilise puudujäägiga, kuigi oodati €1,7 miljardilist ülejääki. Euro on praeguseks hetkeks oma päevased võidud ära andnud ja kaupleb $1,3365 juures. Päevasisene tipp tehti $1,3455 juures.
  • Hiina keskpank tõstab pankade kohustuslikku reservmäära 50 baaspunkti võrra
  • Hiina RRR graafikut on kusagil veebis?
  • See on suurematele pankadele määratud reservimäär enne tänast tõstmist

  • Hiina RRR otsus mõjutab kõige otsesemalt Austraalia dollarit, mis on USD vastu kukkunud täna 0,82% (kaupleb $0,9895 juures) ja euro vastu 0,86% (kaupleb 1,3507 juures).
  • Economist on pannud kokku üsna huvitava interaktiivse graafiku, millel on USA erinevaid osariike vastavalt nende SKT-le ja rahvaarvule kõrvutatud mõne ligilähedaste numbritega riigiga. Annab päris hea aimduse sellest kui loeme igapäevaselt California või mõne teise osariigi probleemidest. Link
  • JPMorgan Chase prelim $1.12 vs $0.99 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $26.72 bln vs $24.44 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
  • Cardtronics (CATM) added to short-term buy list at Deutsche Bank
    JPMorgan kinnitamas $20 hinnasihti.
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: DHT +2.4% (light volume), INTC +1.1%.

    M&A news: SBIB +2.9% (trading higher on reports out overnight that the co is planning to put itself up for sale), SNN +0.3% (Telegraph report out overnight suggests that the co and Biomet are in merger discussions; SNN disclosed that it is not in merger discussions).

    Select semis/technology related names getting boost following INTC results/commentary: KLAC +5.9%, AMAT +3.9%, NVLS +3.3%, DELL +2.3%, TER +2%, ASML +1.9%, MIPS +1.6%, SMH +1.5%,.

    Other news: CPIX +21.7% (receives FDA approval for new formulation of acetadote), CT +18.9% (seeing continued strength on light volume; stated it does not comment on unusual market activity), SIHI +14.1% (still checking), PCE +10.6% (ticking higher following yesterday's 70% surge higher), MOVE +5.1% (AOL and Move agreement expands online real estate marketplace), ELOS +4.4% (received 510(k) clearance from the FDA to market a new Tanda Light Emitting Diode system for skin rejuvenation), CRH +3.9% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), SPMD +3% (CNBC reports that online services providers Groupon and Pandora are seriously weighing the possibility of an IPO this week), MU +2.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), CNIT +2.2% (China Information Tech discloses $39.6 mln in newly signed contracts during the Fourth Quarter of 2010), KKR +1.9% (still checking).

    Analyst comments: COCO +4.9% (upgraded to Outperform from Underperform at RBC Capital), MGM +0.7% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Citigroup).

  • December Retail Sales ex-auto +0.5% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to +1.0% from +1.2%
    December Core CPI M/M +0.1% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus, prior +0.1%
    December Retail Sales +0.6% vs +0.7% Briefing.com consensus
    December CPI MoM +0.5% vs. +0.4% Briefing.com consensus, prior +0.1%
  • Täna on RBC Capital Markets`i analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Corinthian Colleges (COCO) kohta.
    RBC tõstab COCO reitingu „müü“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $5 pealt $6 peale.


    We are upgrading COCO to Outperform and raising our price target to $6 after meeting with the company's new CEO, Jack Massimino, earlier this week. In our opinion, the return of Mr. Massimino, who was previously COCO's chairman and its CEO before that, will be viewed a year from now as an important step in terms of getting the company back on track. We expect that Mr. Massimino will leverage his experience in running public companies in the healt care and for-profit education sectors to develop a rehabilitation plan for COCO that stabilizes enrollment and addresses its perilous regulatory position. We also note that we believe investor expectations for the company are excessively pessimistic. Although an investment in COCO is speculative, we believe that the risk/reward pendulum has swung in a favorable direction.

    Analüütikute reitingumuutuse ajendiks on eelkõige firma uus CEO Jack Massimo. Mehelt, kes on ka enne ettevõtte juht olnud, oodatakse, et ta viiks firma jälle õigetesse rööbastesse. Massimol on analüütikute sõnul vajalik kogemus juhtimaks börsiettevõtet ning teadmised, kuidas stabiliseerida COCO hetkel üsna habrast tasakaalu ning teha tuleviku tarbeks häid strateegilisi otsuseid. Sentiment on firma suhtes äärmiselt negatiivne ning analüütikute sõnul on investeering firmasse küll spekulatiivse maiguga, aga sellele vaatamata usuvad nad, et riski/kasumi suhe on pöördunud viimase kasuks.

    Potential Catalysts: (1) Investor confidence in COCO improves due to new messaging focused on quality student outcomes and the provision of a coherent business plan that has tangible operational and financial benchmarks. (2) CY11E enrollment stabilizes at 85,000 (-15% y/y) students. (3) CY11E operating margin exceeds 5% due to cost reduction initiatives. (4) Gainful Employment (GE) regulation is less onerous than expected. (5) COCO is acquired by another for-profit operator or a private equity investor.

    Peamiste katalüsaatoritena nähakse investorite usalduse paranemist tänu õpilaste tulemuste paranemisele, 2011. Aastal õpilaste lisandumine stabiliseerub, marginaalid tänud kulude vähendamisele suurenevad ning uus regulatsioon on oodatust vähem koormav.

    EDU aktsiad ehk haridussektor on olnud alates suvest väga ränga müügisurve all. Surve on tingitud peamiselt USA haridusministeeriumi poolt kavandatavate regulatsioonide ning ka avalikkuse ette jõudnud info tõttu, mis on oluliselt kahjustanud erakoolide mainet. Oma osa on mänginud ka majanduslangus, mistõttu paljud õpilased jäid hätta õppemaksu tasumisega ning uusi õppureid liitus ka aina vähem. Kõike eelnevat arvesse võttes on investorid sektori suhtes äärmiselt negatiivselt meelestatud ning tänane RBC upgrade võiks lasta tunneli lõpus mõne valguskiire paista küll. COCO puhul võiks positsiooni soetada isegi paarinädalase perspektiiviga, sest on üsna reaalne, et aktsia tiksub lähinädalatel tasapisi üles
    Eelturul kaupleb aktsia $5 kandis ehk üle 5% plusspoolel.Loodetavasti tuleb avanemisel väike pullback.


  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: CSTR -24.7% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Securities), SHFL -5.0%, HAS -4.8%, ZZ -2.0%, TTM -2.9% (reported December sales results), JPM -0.6%.

    Select financial related names showing modest weakness: ITUB -1.4%, HBC -1.3%, BBD -1.3#, BBVA -1.3%, GS -0.6%, BCS -0.65.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: VGZ -5.6%, EXK -3.2%, HL -2.6%, GBG -2.3%, SLW -2.2%, SVM -2.2%, EGO -1.9%, GFI -1.7%, AU -1.6%, NG -1.6%, BBL -1.5%, CDE -1.5%, BHP -1.1%, RIO -0.8%, VALE -0.8%, SLV -0.7%, GLD -0.5%.

    Rare earth names pulling back: REE -2.3%, SHZ -1.8%, AVL -1.5%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing weakness: HAL -1.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Bernstein), SDRL -1.8%, LNG -1.5%, ECA -1.4%, RIG -1.4%, SU -1.1%, RDS.A -0.9%.

    Select European drug names seeing early weakness: SNY -1.4% (also reports of increased bid for GENZ), NVS -1.2%, AZN -0.6%.

    Other news: LOCM -7.5% (announces proposed public offering of of 4 mln shares of common stock), ARMH -5% (following INTC comments from the call last night), QGEN -4.3% (still checking), DNDN -2% (files for common stock and debt securities shelf offering, announces offering of $500 million convertible senior notes due 2016), ANR -2% (2010 and 2011 shipment and cost guidance; increases anticipated 2011 metallurgical coal shipments), ETP -1.5% (files for common units and debt securities shelf offering), RYAAY -1.3% (still checking), NFLX -1% (trading lower following CSTR guidance), AGNC -0.8% (announces pricing of public offering of common stock at $28.00), .

    Analyst comments: HWAY -4.2% (downgraded to Sell from Reduce at Madison Williams ), JASO -3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), PCX -2.9% (downgraded at FBR Capital), SAP -2% (downgraded to Hold at Jefferies), LIFE -2% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), ILMN -1.5% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC), NVO -1.3% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Deutsche Bank), ED -0.9% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman).

  • Will Intel Be the Downside Catalyst?
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/14/2011 8:46 AM EST


    To expect too much is to have a sentimental view of life, and this is a softness that ends in bitterness.
    -- Flannery O'Connor

    Earnings season is all about expectations. If they have been too high, we pay a price; if they have been too low, we celebrate.

    Intel (INTC) earnings have always been a great indicator of overall expectations. Its numbers are almost always quite good, but the market's reaction varies widely. Once again, Intel reported a great quarter, but after a celebration last night, the action isn't nearly as peppy this morning.

    This is nothing new. Intel has a history of producing "sell the news" reactions when the market is at highs. Conventional wisdom is that when the semiconductors are leaders, it is time to be extremely careful. The group is often the last one to lead, right before the market softens.

    I don't want to be overly anticipatory and look for a major market turn here, but Intel earnings are a potential catalyst we have to be aware of. Even if INTC itself holds its gains, it can still cause a "sell the news" reaction in the broader market as earnings season continues.

    JPMorgan (JPM) also reported numbers that were ahead of expectations, but it is trading down a few cents on the news. The big surprise on the earnings front is a preannouncement by Coinstar (CSTR) of poor numbers. It is being clobbered on the news and is spilling over to Netflix (NFLX) as well.

    Another important piece of news overnight is that China's central bank raised its reserve requirements for the fourth time in the past two months. There are obvious concerns about inflation there, but China stocks have consistently shrugged off this tightening so far. There also is a higher level of hawkishness in Europe, but the U.S. seems quite sanguine about the prospects for inflation. But keep an eye on this one -- heightened inflation concerns in the U.S. would be a major headwind for equities.

    Even though the market is slightly weak this morning, the recent uptrend has been so strong and so unrelenting that we'd be foolish to look for a sudden collapse. Markets that are this strong just don't fall apart easily. Generally a top is a process that requires some back-and-forth action over a period of time before dip-buyers start to lose their confidence. The first few dips are almost always bought by the folks who have been waiting endlessly for some sort of pullback. It is only after they find themselves trapped in an uncooperative market for a while that they lose confidence and create selling pressure.

    We have a slight gap down to start the day, but dip-buyers have had an almost Pavlovian response to such things for quite a while. It has been a signal to immediately jump in, because we all know that this market just can't go down.

    As I've mentioned, I've been finding it increasingly difficult to keep finding new buys as this market goes straight up day after day. I'm going to keep looking for setups and am unwilling to be an active short until we have some real price weakness.

    Today will be a very good test of market character. If the "sell the news" reaction shows some vigor today, we will have to watch for that the theme to continue as earnings season continues. A little increase in volatility would go a long way in creating some new trading opportunities.

    No positions.

  • December Industrial Production +0.8% vs +0.4% Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to +0.3% from +0.4%; Capacity Utilization 76.0% vs 75.5% Briefing.com consensus
  • January University of Michigan Confidence 76.0 vs 75.5 Briefing.com consensus, December 74.5
  • Briefingult väike apsakas. Michigani indeksi tegelik näit oodatust madalam:

    January University of Michigan Sentiment- prelim 72.7 vs 75.5 Briefing.com consensus
  • Tänane CPI number meedias küll olulist tähelepanu ei pälvinud, kuid tegu oli siiski huvitava raportiga. Inflatsioon kasvab USAs üle ootuste kiiresti, aga samas kinnitas jaemüügi raport, et tarbimine on riigis endiselt tagasihoidlik. 0.5%line CPI näit ületas oodatud 0.4% ning novembrikuu 0.1% - ühtlasi on tegemist ka suurima kuise kasvuga 2009. aasta juunist saati. Näiteks mootorkütus kasvas detsembris koguni 8.5% ning energia kallines 4.6%. Y-o-y baasil tõusis kütuse hind 13.9%. Imekombel kasvasid toiduhinnad aga vaid 0.1%. Tulevatel kuudel on aga oodata tugevat trendi muutumist, kui üldine hinnakasv jõuab ka toidukaupadeni. Nagu paar nädalat tagasi sai juba mainitud, siis meedias reklaamitud rekordiline jõuluhooaeg valmistas ühe suure pettumuse – jaemüük kasvas 0.6% vs oodatud 0.8% asemel. Alloleval graafikul on ära toodud USA 10-aastase võlakirja ja 10-aastase TIPSi spread, mis näitab sisuliselt turu inflatsiooniootust (ehk järgmise 10 aasta oodatav keskmine inflatsioonimäär on täna ca 2.28%). Tänase raporti taustal ei ole põhjust „karta,“ et trend muutuma peaks. "Prindime majanduse raskustest välja" mentaliteedil on paraku tagajärjed.



  • The Fed purchased $7.31 bln of 2015/2016 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $24.89 bln
  • Natl Bank of Greece: Headlines crossing that Fitch has cut Greece's rating to junk, outlook negative
  • COCO täna paraku oluliselt soodsamat sisenemisvõimalust avanemisel ei pakkunud kui eelturul, kus positsiooni sai soetada ka $5 alt. Peale avanemist käis aktsia ära ka üle $5,20 taseme ning hetkel kaupleb $5,13 juures, ca 9% plusspoolel. Nagu hommikul ütlesin võiks COCO olla väärt hoidmist paari nädala perspektiivis ja jään sellele siis silma peal hoidma ning paari nädala pärast teen ka väikese tagasivaate.







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