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Börsipäev 27. jaanuar

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  • Aasia indeksid on kauplemas täna valdavalt plusspoolel, saades tuge toorainete eilsest tõusust ning Jaapani oodatust kiiremini kasvavast ekspordist (detsembri eksport paranes aastatagusega võrreldes 13%, kiirenedes novembri 9,1% pealt ning ületades analüütikute prognoositud 9,3%-list tõusu). Hiina indeksid on täna aga üle protsendises plussis seda vaatamata valitsuse välja käidud plaanile üritada kolmanda ringi meetmetega kinnisvarasektori nõudlust jahutada. Viimased on suunatud ostjatele, kes on soetamas omale teist või kolmandat kodu ning hõlmavad muuhulgas näiteks esmase sissemakse suurendamist 50% pealt 60% peale, kõrgemat kinnisvaralaenude intressi, 5,5%list müügimaksu kui hoone pannakse viie aasta jooksul uuesti turule ja kohalike omavalitsuste suuremat sekkumist kinnisvarahindade määramisel. Ühtlasi keelatakse inimestel teise kodu ostmine kõikides suuremates linnades.

    Kuigi Euroopas on kindlasti huvitav jälgida Saksamaa jaanuarikuu esmast inflatsiooninäitu (konsensus ootab kiirenemist detsembrikuu 1,7% pealt 2,0% peale), siis turgude sentimenti kohalt kujuneb olulisemaks USA makrokalender. Kell 15.30 avalikustatakse möödunud nädalal esmakordselt töötuabiraha taotlenud inimeste arv, kui konsensus ootab kerget tõusu 404K pealt 410K peale, Kestvate taotluste mahuks prognoositakse 3835K (eelneval nädalal 3861K). Samal ajal avaldatakse detsembrikuu kestvuskaupade tellimuste muutus ning kell 17.00 novembrikuu lõpetamata kinnisvaratehingute arv.

    Euroopa indeksite futuurid on hetkel kauplemas 0,2% kõrgemal, USA omad aga 0,1% plussis.
  • Tänane tulemuste kalender on üks tihedamaid, kui kokku avalikustavad oma numbrid 152 USA börsidel noteeritud ettevõtet. Enne turgu raporteeriva muuhulgas At&T, Caterpillar, Altria, Eli Lilly, Lockheed martin, Motorola, Nokia, Potash ja Procter & Gamble. Pärast turgu on aga kaks suuremat nime Microsoft ja Amazon.
  • S&P alandas Jaapani reitingu AA- peale.

    Dollar on tõusus: AUDUSD -0,79%: EURUSD -0,35%; GBPUSD -0,22%; NZDUSD -0,4%; USDCAD +0,31%; USDCHF +0,33% ja USDJPY +0,93%.
  • Deutsche on eile tõstnud Kone soovituse hoia pealt osta peale ning leiab, et viimase aja langus pakub head sisenemise kohta. Hinnasiht tõstetakse 41 euro pealt 44 peale pärast in-line tulemusi.
    Kone is a well-managed, high quality company, operating in a very attractive industry characterized by stable earnings due to a high visibility of its service business. Hence, we believe it deserves a premium valuation compared to the capital goods sector. E&E companies seldom offer good entry points, and given the recent bleak performance of Kone, we think this is one. We upgrade Kone to Buy with a new TP of E44 (from E41).



    Lisaks säilitab SEB täna osta soovituse, kuid tõstab hinnasihi 46 euro pealt 48 euro peale.
  • Eurotsooni tarbijausalduse indeks tuli vastavalt ootustele -11,2 punkti; ärikliima indeks tuli 1,58 vs oodatud 1,34 punkti; tööstususalduse indeks tuli 6 vs oodatud 5 punkti; teenustesektori usalduse indeks 9,2 vs oodatud 10,0 punkti.
    Euro on päevasest põhjast $1,3636 tasemelt taastunud viimase paari tunniga ja kaupleb hetkel $1,3681 juures (0,23% miinuspoolel).
  • Euro tegi uue kahe kuu tipu $1,3737 juures.
  • Kas on midagi kuulda ka AMLN. Mida arvate?
  • to Marek9: AMLN kohta on nii palju uut, et ravimiamet tegi teatavaid mööndusi Bydoreoni uute klliniliste uuringute läbiviimise juures (ravimiamet nõudis lisauuringuid ravimi ohutuse osas), mis vähendab uuringu läbiviimise ajakulu 10 nädalalt mõne päevani. AMLN peaks sellega algust tegema veebruari alguses ning uudiseid võiks Bydoreoni kohta oodata aasta teises pooles.
  • Caterpillar beats by $0.20, beats on revs; sees FY11 EPS and rev above consensus (95.75)
    Continued growth in developing countries, improving economies in North America and Europe, strong demand for mining products and the need for our dealers to add to inventories and replenish rental fleets should all contribute to higher sales in 2011. The outlook reflects our expectation that the world economy will continue to recover and that Caterpillar is positioned to win by providing customers with products and support that are unmatched in the industry.
  • Initial Claims 454K vs 410K Briefing.com consensus, prior revised to 403K from 404K
    Continuing Claims rises to 3.991 mln from 3.897 mln
    December Durable Orders -2.5% vs +1.5% Briefing.com consensus
    December Durable ex-trans rises +0.5%, Briefing.com consensus +0.6%
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: FLWS +13.7%, TER +9.4%, NFLX +7.7% (also upgraded to Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), NEI +7.3%, AF +7.1%, AMLN +6.5% (also upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray), HBI +6.2% (ticking higher), QCOM +6% (also upgraded to Outperform at Morgan Keegan), TSCO +5.6%, ISSI +4.7%, POT +3.7%, AZN +2.9%, CAT +2.5%, LSI +2.4%, SWK +2.3%, SYMC +2.3% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Jefferies), CTXS +1.9%, BANR +1.5%, NE +0.6%.

    M&A news: PLD +7.3% and AMB +9.6% (ProLogis confirms ongoing discussions regarding strategic combination with AMB), ABBC +4.2% (Abington Bancorp to be acquired for $13.16/share or ~$273 mln by Susquehanna Bancshares).

    Select financial related names showing strength: IRE +3.5%, ING +3.2%, GNW +3.1%, PUK +3.0%, STD +2.7%, MBI +2.2%, BBVA +2.0%, AEG +1.8%, BCS +1.4%, STI +1.3%, UBS +1.2%, CS +0.7%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing strength: TOT +1.1%, REP +1.0%, RDS.A +0.9%.

    A few potash/ag names ticking higher following POT results: CF +2.0%, MOS +1.8%, AGU +1.5%.

    Other news: IVD +73.5% (receives F.D.A. clearance for Mago 4S), RXII +18.7% (announces positive initial results in microRNA Therapeutics), TNK +6.6% (still checking; the co was formed by TK and TOO announced last night that it received an offer to acquire from TK for the remaining 49% interest), NXPI +6.6% (Atos Origin and NXP Introduce End-to-End Security in the Smart Grid), CWS +5.2% (still checking), COV +4.5% (will replace McAfee in the S&P 500 index), CCME +3.4% (still checking), MU +3.3% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), TCLP +1.2% (still checking), CSTR +1.1% (ticking higher with NFLX), DE +1.1% (higher in sympathy with CAT), STI +1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).

    Analyst comments: GOLD +2% (resumed with a Overweight at HSBC Securities).
  • to Nelli: kuidas võivad käituda avanedes NFLX ja QCOM ?
  • Täna on Jefferies&Company väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Amedisys (AMED)-i kohta.
    Jefferies tõstab AMED reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $31 pealt $45 peale.


    Restructuring now complete. During Q4, management (1) completed the rationalization of underperforming home healt agency locations, (2) streamlined its organizational structure, (3) introduced a new sales compensation structure, (4) upgraded its IT infrastructure, and (5) continued to shift clinical compensation to a per visit, variable rate structure. Financial charges related to this restructuring will likely make the 4Q10 earnings release noisy, but sets the stage for much cleaner financials in 2011.

    Analüütikud toovad välja, et restruktureerimine firmas on nüüd lõpuni jõudnud ning aset on leidnud mitmesugused muudatused.

    • Improved volume trends expected in 2011. AMED should seen improving organic volume trends this year resulting from pent up demand, accelerating demographic trends and market share gains.
    With the U.S. economy projected to grow 2-3% this year, we expect to see improved trends in healthcare utilization, particularly among Medicare beneficiaries, many of whom deferred clinical procedures last year and tend to be active users of home nursing services. It is also important to note that 2.5 million baby boomers will become Medicare eligible this year alone, likely putting increased demands on home health providers. Finally, we expect AMED to win market share from less efficient providers who cannot profitably operate under recently implemented Medicare cuts.


    Analüütikud ootavad käesolevalt aastalt käibekasvu, sest seda soodustavad juba demograafilised muutused, sest ainuüksi 2,5 miljonit baby boomer`t saavad õiguse kasutada Medicare abi ning mis omakorda tõstab nõudlust ka kodupõetajate järele. Analüütikute sõnul võidab AMED tõenäoliselt ka turuosa konkurentidelt, kes ei suuda peale Medicare poolt tehtud kärpeid enam kasumlikult tegutseda.

    AMED aktsiasse on kogenenud paras kogus short-seller`id ( 19%) ja $45 hinnasihi näol on tegemist uue street high`ga. Selline kombinatsioon peaks ostuhuvi äratama mu arvates küll.

  • Zerohedge'i vahendusel graafik Egiptuse börsist, mis kukkus minutite jooksul 11%:



    Bloombergi vahendusel seletust ka:
    “The international investment community has taken a decision that what’s happening in Egypt is serious and therefore are exiting their positions,” said Mohammed Ali Yasin, chief investment officer at Abu Dhabi-based financial services company CAPM Investments PJSC.

    Cairo is under heavy security for a second day to prevent the repeat of the Jan. 25 protests, when thousands took to the streets of the capital and major cities to denounce President Hosni Mubarak, inspired by the revolt that toppled Tunisia’s leader. Groups organizing the protests, including the National Association for Change, are calling for another round of protests tomorrow, Abdel Rahman Youssef, a leading figure in the opposition movement, said by text message.
  • to daniel1: Mõlemad firmad andsid väga head prognoosid ja lisaks muidugi ka üle ootuste paremad kvartalitulemused, mis on omakorda ka aktsiad rallima pannud.
    Mismoodi NFLX ja QCOM avanedes käituvad on väga raske prognoosida, aga ei soovitaks olla ei ostu- ega müügipoolel vaid pigem jälgida.
  • Gapping down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: QTM -24.8%, MMI -8.6%, MUR -8.5% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank, RCL -5.8%, RHI -5%, EGHT -4.3% (also downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Northland Securities), BAX -3.5%, JBLU -3.4%, VAR -3.1%, T -2.9%, NOK -2.8%, CL -2.5%, ETFC -2.5%, SBUX -2.5%, PG -2.4%, NVS -2%, CVD -1.4%.

    Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLT -4.0%, NGD -2.6%, GFI -2.1%, RBY -1.8%, GSS -1.3%, AU -1.2%, KGC -1.2%, NXG -1.1%, IAG -1.0%, NEM -1.0%, EGO -0.9%.

    Other news: PSTI -16.7% (announces proposed public offering of common stock and warrants to purchase common stock), REXX -7.2% (Rex Energy Announces 61% Net Increase in Proved Reserves and Provides Operational Update), LDK -4% (prices a follow-on offering of 12 mln ADS, each representing one ordinary share, at a price to the public of $12.40 per ADS).

    Analyst comments: GT -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), CHK -1.1% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Stifel Nicolaus), BWA -0.9% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman), RSH -0.8% (downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital), ABT -0.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), ADP -0.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Outperform at Credit Agricole).
  • Cirrus Logic prelim $0.34 vs $0.33 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $95.6 mln vs $91.68 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
    Cirrus Logic sees Q4 revs $88-94 mln vs $85.61 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
  • Cree: Kevin Douglas discloses 6.8% stake in 13G filing

  • Good Effort, Bulls
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    1/27/2011 8:50 AM EST

    It is not worthwhile to try to keep history from repeating itself, for man's character will always make the preventing of the repetitions impossible.
    --Mark Twain

    Though the indices aren't reflecting it very well, many stocks have undergone a correction over the past six trading days. Most of the damage was done to small-cap names, but also suffering have been some key big-cap momentum issues, such as Google (GOOG) and Priceline.com (PCLN) .

    Yesterday the market appeared to shrug off its recent concerns as small-caps put together a brisk rally. The State of the Union address received much of the credit for the strength, but it looked more likely that too many folks were simply caught leaning the wrong way and had to scramble to reposition.

    The Federal Reserve interest-rate announcement saw an extremely tepid response as Ben Bernanke and his crew assured us that inflation was not an issue and that it is therefore safe to keep on printing new cash. Unemployment remains a major concern, and nothing much seems to be changing on that front.

    So the issue now is, does the market just resume the remarkable uptrend that it's enjoyed since the end of August? The action of the past week or so barely even registers on the charts of the senior indices, so it's hard to discern much damage. Nonetheless, many stocks -- such as those in the cloud-computing group -- certainly saw some difficulty.

    Nonetheless, this market has had a great tendency to shrug off these minor bouts of weakness and to continue on its upward trek as if nothing had happened. Every time this takes place, it generates a new supply of bears to squeeze, as well as underinvested bulls who need to buy.

    This time around, we are also seeing some pretty good earnings reports hitting, although the reaction to Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) was quite worrisome for a while. The "sell-the-news" inclination seems to have subsided, but big reports are scheduled tonight from Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT) . These will be a good test of the market move.

    I'm a bit hesitant to embrace a number of the small-caps that bounced yesterday. In many cases, the moves look like nothing more than oversold bounces, but I've often discussed those have a habit of turning into V-shaped moves right back up to highs.

    I'm going to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt here, and I will not try to fight them. I'm sure I don't have to remind anyone about the dangers of trying to call a top in this market. I'm little skeptical that stocks are going to quickly and easily resume the same sort of momentum they had a couple weeks ago, but the bulls are certainly giving it a good try.

    We'll see what happens after we digest this morning's economic data and go from there.

    No positions
  • S&P 500 indeks tegi päeva tipuks 1300.73 punkti.
  • November Pending Home Sales M/M +2.0% vs -0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior +3.1%
  • Äsja avaldati FCIC lõplik "The Financial Crisis Inquiry Report" (553 lk). PDFi kujul saab seda lugeda siit.
  • hetkel käimas ka pressikas
    http://www.fcic.gov/watch

    siin EGX30 kohta natuke täpsem päevasisene graafik
    http://www.forexpros.com/indices/egx30-advanced-chart
  • FCIC raport peatükkide kaupa
    http://www.fcic.gov/report
  • The Fed purchased $5.79 bln of 2012/2013 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $33.56 bln
  • Kuld kauplemas kolme kuu põhjas $1319 juures:

  • Vaatamata tänasele Jaapani reitingu alandamisele on Jaapani 10-aastased võlakirjad täna tõusnud:


  • Potash (POT) target raised to $240 at Boenning & Scattergood
    Boenning & Scattergood raises their POT tgt to $240 from $190 following earnings. Firm notes in this morning's earnings release, the company predicts that China's consumption of K will reach 11 million tons this year (three quarters imported) while North America consumes 10 million tons -- the first time, ever, that China will use more K than the U.S. and Canada. Firm notes these dynamics lay the foundation for price increases, maybe as much as $250 to $300 per ton, which should be the main spring behind their 2012 earnings numbers.

    Tegemist on uue street high targetiga.
  • Zerohedge on FCIC raportist noppinud graafikuid, millega saab tutvuda siin.
  • Potash announces three-for-one stock split and dividend increase
    Late last night, co announced that its Board of Directors has approved a three-for-one stock split of the company's outstanding common shares which will be payable in the form of a stock dividend. Subject to final regulatory approval, all shareholders will receive two additional shares for each share owned on the record date of February 16, 2011. Additionally, the Board of Directors approved an increase of the company's quarterly cash dividend (from $0.10 per share to $0.21 per share on a pre-split basis), and declared a quarterly cash dividend of US $0.07 per common share (on a post-split basis) payable May 5, 2011 to shareholders of record on April 14, 2011.

    Ehk iga olemasoleva aktsia eest saab 2 aktsiat lisaks (senise 1 aktsia eest saab investoril olema kontol 3 aktsiat) ning kvartaalseid dividende tõsteti $0.10 pealt $0.21 peale.
  • $29 bln 7-yr Note Auction Results: 2.744% (Expected 2.774%); Bid/Cover 2.85x (Prior 2.86x, 10-auction avg 2.87x); Indirect Bidders 52.1% (Prior 64.2%, 10-auction avg 50.9%)
  • AMED on täna kena tõusu teinud ning hetkel kaupleb $36,25 kandis ehk ligi 9% plusspoolel. Aktsia osteti eelturul liiga üles ja enne avanemist kauples aktsia lausa 11% plussis ja seetõttu pidid huvilised ootama sobivamat momenti ja see peale avanemist tuligi, kui aktsia kukkus $34 kanti.

  • January 27, 2011 Jim Rogers
    Its Not Time To Own Stocks And Bonds
    “Throughout history, go back and look, you know we had huge inflation in the 70s, stocks were not in a good place to be. This is the time when you should own real assets, not stocks and bonds.” - in CNBC

  • Paar nädalat tagasi (14. jaanuar) andsid RBC Capital Markets`i analüütikud "osta" soovituse Corinthian Colleges (COCO)-le koos $6 hinnasihiga.
    Nagu näha allolevalt graafikult, siis $6-line hinnasiht ongi juba käes.

  • MSFT prelim reports $0.77 vs $0.68 consensus, revs of $19.9 bln vs $19.1 bln consensus (29.32 +0.55)
  • Tänased teatajad:
    ABAX, ARAY, AMZN, ANEN, AMCC, ARBA, BXS, EPAY, CPHD, CB, COBZ, COHR, COLM, CPSI, CPWR, CYT, DRIV, DLLR, ESIO, FII, FNF, FFIN, GSIT, HUBG, INFN, INFA, KLAC, LSCC, MBFI, MCRL, MCRS, MSCC, MWW, MYGN, OIIM, OMCL, OPLK, OPNT, PMCS, QLGC, RLRN, RMD, RVBD, SNDK, SCSC, SFG, SXL, TNAV, TSRA, THOR, VSEA, VRSN, VPRT ja ZOLL.

    Homme enne turgu:
    AAI, ARLP, ACO, AEP, ART, CVX, CMCO, D, DOV, F, HON, IDXX, ININ, KSP, OSK, PFS, QSII, SMG, SNV, TROW ja WL.
  • Exco Resources (XCO): Wilbur Ross discloses 9.7% stake in amended 13D filing, up from 8.5% on 1/26
  • Amazon.com prelim $0.91 vs $0.88 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $12.95 bln vs $13.01 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
    Turule tulemused ei meeldinud ja AMZN kaupleb hetkel $166 kandis.

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