Börsipäev 31. jaanuar
Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse
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Geopoliitilised pinged Egiptuses tingisid reedel investorite suurenenud riskikartlikkuse globaalsetel aktsiaturgudel, kui kaitset otsiti võlakirjaturgudelt ning valuutadest eelistati dollarit ning jeeni. Aasia indeksid on alustanud uut nädalat madalamal tasemel, üheks erandiks kujunes aga Hiina börs, mis oli neljandat päeva järjest tõusus. Euroopa tõotab futuuride põhjal avaneda 0,3-0,6% miinuses, USA indeksite futuurid liiguvad aga hetkel 0-0,2% kõrgemal võrreldes reedese sulgumisega. Euro on pärast reedest müüki leidmas taas ostuhuvi, kaubeldes dollari vastu 0,18% kõrgemal $1,3637 juures.
Arengud Egiptuses jäävad domineerima sentimenti globaalsetel aktsiaturgudel, ent selle kõrval on täna mõned makrouudised, mis võiksid investorite tähelepanu täiendavalt pälvida. Kell 12.00 avalikustatakse eurotsooni jaanuarikuu esialgne inflatsiooninäit ning konsensuse arvates kiirenes tarbijahinnaindeks detsembri 2,2% pealt 2,3% peale. USA-s aga jälgitakse detsembri isiklikku sissetulekute ja kulutuste muutust (kell 15.30) ning jaanuari Chicago PMI-d kell 16.45. -
Üldiselt mina ei saa aru miks siiski ühe piirkonna personaalne probleem peaks globaalseid turge kukutama. Miks peaks NASDAQ 100 indeksi liikmed kukkuma Egiptuse probleemide peale 3%? Mõju oleks ilmselge kui Suessi kanali töö oleks tugevalt häiritud ja nafta spikeks. Kuid vaevalt, et keegi soovib kanali tööd häirida, sest selle osapole bargaining power oleks igaveseks kadunud. Seda osapoolt kes häirib seal liiklust ei võeta enam legitiimse partnerina.
Turg peaks oluliselt kukkuma kuna turge mõjutavad järgmised asjaolud:
* groupthink
* over leveraging
* hedge fundide lühiajalise tootluse otsimine
* MTF ja turgude fragmentatsioon
Kui nüüd väike võnge või häire normaalses kulgemises tuleb, siis kohe suur probleem. -
OMX Nordic 40.... -0,52%
OMX Copenhagen -0,62%
OMX Stockholm... -0,59%
OMX Helsinki....... -0,30%
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Moody's alandas Egiptuse reitingu Ba2 peale, väljavaated negatiivsed.
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Kõik Energy ja Utilities indeksid on tõusus, ülejäänud languses.
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Tegelikkuses ei tohikski Egiptuse sündmustel globaalsetele turgudele olulist mõju olla nii kaua kui nafta transpordis läbi Suessi kanali takistusi esine. Ma ei oska küll öelda kui tõenäoline või ebatõenäoline see on aga antud määramatust turud ilmselt kõige rohkem pelgavad, jälgides hoolega nafta hinnatseme liikumist ja võimalikku tagajärge majanduslikule taastumisele Aasiast USA-ni. Aga hetkel tundub tõesti pisut ennatlik reaktsioon olevat, sest alles mõni aeg tagasi kauples WTI 92 dollari tasemel ning mitmed kvaliteetsemad naftasordid isegi üle 100 dollari, kuid toona tegid SP500 ja DAX probleemideta ca 2,5 aasta tippe.
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Saksamaa võlakirjade yieldid on pärast ECB jaanuarikuist kohtumist teinud läbi märkimisväärse tõusu ning kahe aastase tulusus on nüüdseks jõudnud juba 15 kuu tippude juurde (10.a veidi alla aasta tipud). Peamiselt on selle taga spekulatsioon, et Euroopa keskpank on sunnitud tänavu inflatsiooni kontrollimiseks rohkem kui ühe korra intressimäärasid tõstma.
Wolfgang Münchau on tänases Financial Timesis kirjutamas, et toit ja energia pole kiireneva inflatsiooni juures suurimaks probleemiks, vaid kõrgemat ohtu kujutab Saksamaa majanduse ülekuumenemine ajal, mil perifeersed Euroopa riigid kõrge tööpuuduse ja olematu majandusliku taastumise käes vaevlevad.But due to an export-based industrial monoculture, Germany is vulnerable to labour supply shortages. In December, the shortage of graduate-level engineers rose by 6 per cent, double what it was a year earlier. The Association of German Engineers, which monitors the labour market situation within its profession, said the rate of increase in labour shortages was frightening, and it expects it to get worse. The gap was accounted for by mostly two sectors – mechanical and electrical engineering. Average German labour costs will be contained in the current year because some of last year’s wage agreements run into this one. The economy also still generates new low paying jobs that bear down on average wage costs. This effect, which stems from welfare reforms, is not going to last forever. I expect this year’s wage round to produce big wage increases, putting pressure on average unit labour costs from next year onwards.
From a pure monetary policy standpoint, the least risky option is a moderate rise right away, followed by a few further rate increases during the year. That would depress average growth. It may even drive the eurozone periphery over the edge. But it would probably not produce deflation for the eurozone as a whole. If the ECB leaves rates unchanged for another year, it will risk an inflationary overshoot later. It would then take a crippling increase in nominal interest rates to bring inflation back to under 2 per cent. We are talking about rates in the higher single digits. Just imagine what such a scenario would do to the Spanish, or even the German, banking sector?
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eurotsooni januaarikuu esialgne THI 2,4% (yoY) vs oodatud 2,3%
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Nädalavahetusel jõudis lõpule tehing, mille üle on turul spekuleeritud juba mõnda aega.
Wall Street Journal kirjutab, et laupäeval teatas Alpha Natural Resources (ANR), et võtab üle Massey (MEE) $7,1 miljardi eest. Selle tehingu tulemusel saab ANR-st maailma suuruselt kolmas kivisöe tootja. Ühendatud firmadel on nüüd kokku 110 kaevandust ja viis miljardit tonni kivisöe reserve.
Kuulujutud ülevõtmisest on aktsiahinda märkimisväärselt upitanud, sest alles septembris oli MEE $30 aktsia.
Siinkohal oleks vist paslik öelda, et kus sütt, seal tuld?
MEE aktsia sulgumishind reedel oli $57,23. -
Teen suhteliselt vallatu väite - turud olidki suhteliselt üelostetud ning NQ100 kukkus ilmselt rohkem oma üleostetuse koorma, kui egiplaste mürgli tõttu. :p
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Täna on Credit Suisse analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Pall Corporation (PLL)-i kohta.
Credit Suisse tõstab PLL reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale ja hinnasihi $54 pealt $66 peale.
CEO Retiring Increases Probability of Takeout. We believe Eric Krasnoff’s retirement is a catalyst for the company to merge or become acquired. In our view ITT’s water tech spin-off will likely be a suitor. It is important for investors to note that there are no publicly traded pure play high end liquid filtration businesses besides Pall. The majority of Pall’s closet competitors have been acquired by larger companies looking to grow into adjacent product categories or expand their flow businesses. The valuations pure play filtration businesses have received in the past have been very strong. We believe PLL shares presently do not reflect the valuation it would receive if it were to be acquired.
Analüütikute sõnul tõstab firma CEO Eric Krasnoffi lahkumine märkimisväärselt võimalusi ettevõtte ülevõtmiseks. Börsil on peale Pall`i väga vähe ainult filtreerimise ja puhastusseadmetega tegelevaid firmasid ning enamus Pall`i peamisi konkurente on juba üle võetud. Analüütikute arvates ei peegelda aktsia praegune hind tõenäosust,et firma võidakse üle võtta.
Better Execution and Systems Strategy Should Boost Margins. Until recently, Pall’s prior track record on execution (particularly in expense management) had been fairly inconsistent. We believe there is a newly found sense of urgency at the company, which is reflected in the company having 3 consecutive strong quarters. Pall is also likely to benefit from the recurring revenue streams the company’s systems installed base will continue to generate going forward.
Lisaks eelnevale peaks firma võitma ka strateegilistest muutustest kuluhalduse osas. Siiani on firma olnud selles üsna ebajärjekindel, aga analüütikud usuvad, et on leitud töötav moodus, mida tõestab ka kolm järjestikust tugevat kvartalit.
Kindlasti on enamus turuosalisi märganud, et M&A aktiivsus on viimasel ajal oluliselt tõusnud ja seda rohkem kaalu saab ka Credit Suisse analüütikute väide PLL-i peatse võimaliku ülevõtmise kohta. Nende uus hinnasiht tähistab ka street high`d. Usun, et turuosalised võtavad analüütikute sõnasabast täna kinni ning aktsia näeb täna ostuhuvi. -
December Personal Income +0.4% vs +0.5% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.4% from +0.3%
December PCE Prices- Core M/M 0.0% vs +0.1% Briefing.com consensus
December Personal Spending +0.7% vs +0.6% Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to +0.3% from +0.4%
Vahepeal -0,2% punases viibinud USA indeksite fuurid on päeva jooksul vaikselt kosunud ning liiguvad nüüd juba päeva tippude juures 0,3-0,4% kõrgemal. EUR/USD jätkab aga eurotsooni inflatsiooniraporti järgset tugevnemist ning on nüüdseks jõudnud tagasi üle taseme $1,37 -
Euro tegemas võimsalt tagasi reedest kaotust: hetkel kauplemas päeva tippudes $1,3718 tasemel (+0,79%).
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Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: SOHU +5.6%, XOM +1.2%.
M&A news: MEE +13.1% (Massey Energy to be acquired by Alpha Natural Resources for $69.33 per share).
Select financial related names showing strength: STD +4.5%, BBVA +3.7%, ING +2.3%, LYG +1.8%, BAC +1.0%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading higher: VALE +1.7%, MT +1.4%, RIO +1.1%.
Select oil/gas related names showing strength: PTR +3.6%, SSN +3.2%, CHK +2.5% (Chesapeake Energy and CNOOC announce Niobrara-Focused DJ Basin and Powder River Basin project cooperation agreement ), REP +1.9%, RDS.A +1.3% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), DO +1.3%, BP +1.2%, TOT +1.1%.
Select coal related names getting boost following ANR/MEE deal: PCX +4.1%, WLT +3.2%, ACI +2.9%, PUDA +2.6%, BTU +1.8%, ICO +1.7%.
Select European drug names are trading modestly higher: SNY +1.6%, AZN +0.82%.
Other news: DEPO +44.2% (receives FDA approval of GRALISE once-daily Tablets for treatment of post-herpetic neuralgia), NPSP +28.9% (reports that its Phase 3 pivotal study of GATTEX met the primary efficacy endpoint of reducing parenteral nutrition dependence in patients with adult short bowel syndrome), PSTI +6.1% (continued momentum), GERN +5.9% (still checking), PXP +5.8% (ticking higher; Q4 average daily sales volumes increased 9% YoY to 93K BOE; reserve replacement 302% for FY10), GTY +2.7% (will replace Applied Signal Technology in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), DAL +2.1% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), ETN +1.4% and OXPS +0.8% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney).
Analyst comments: HD +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman), NOV +0.9% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Sterne Agee). -
Kanada novembrikuu SKT 0,4% vs oodatud 0,3% (M/M) ja 3% vs eelmise kuu 3,4% (Y/Y). USDCAD -0,45% ja kaupleb 0,9967 tasemel.
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Biotehnoloogia sektori jälgijatele teadmiseks, et Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX) ravimi Contrave jaoks peaks täna tõehetk saabuma, sest 31. jaanuar on see kuupäev, mil USA ravimiamet teeb otsuse heakskiidu osas. Mäletatavasti üllatas OREX detsembris turuosalisi positiivse panel`i otsusega, kui vastu ootusi hääletas ravimiameti komisjon Contrave heakskiidu poolt.
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: ITW -1.3%.
M&A news: ANR -5% (Massey Energy to be acquired by Alpha Natural Resources for $69.33 per share).
Select Israel related names ticking lower following weakness overseas: PTNR -4.6%, CEL -3.3%, NICE -2.6%, BSI -2.4%, TEVA -2.2%,
Other news: BGP -5.9% (delays additional payments to vendors, landlords and other parties), SVNT -4.1% (announces proposed offering of $125 million in convertible senior notes), ADES -3.3% (thinly traded; announces filing of shelf registration statement on Form S-3 to offer and sell up to $140 mln of its securities), NFLX -1.4% (under pressure on reports that Amazon may launch streaming service similar to Netflix), LXRX -1.2% (files to withdraw previously filed registration statement).
Analyst comments: CIEN -3% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), APA -0.8% (removed from Conviction Buy List at Goldman), LOW -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman). -
Bounces Are Key
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
1/31/2011 8:52 AM EST
If you don't want to do something, one excuse is as good as another.
-- Yiddish proverb
The market finally decided Friday it was time to sell off, and the unrest in Egypt provided a very convenient excuse. The market has needed to deal with technically extended conditions for some time but just kept plugging along, lulling many folks into thinking we would never see any real selling again. That set the stage for some good old-fashioned selling.
This morning we are hearing from many folks who are proclaiming that Egypt really isn't that important and the market should quickly rebound. They might be right about Egypt, but things are not nearly as clear with the overall market. The technical setup suggests that we have to be very watchful for further selling in the near term.
After the selling on Friday, we are technically oversold and due for some sort of relief bounce. Monday morning is always helpful in that regard, but we shouldn't be too trusting of a quick and immediately bounce after the level of selling we saw on Friday. There are some trapped bulls now who are likely to be looking for exits, and there will be some bears who are feeling more confident now that we finally have a crack in the market.
One of the biggest positives the bulls have going for them is that we have a new month starting tomorrow. According to Sentimentrader.com, 94% of 2010's gains came on the first day of a new month and 61% of the entire rally was due to gap-up openings on the first day of a new month.
That is a remarkable statistic and goes to show how if you weren't long at the close on the last day of the month, you missed out on some very big gains. Market players are very aware of these tendencies -- especially the computerized traders -- and that makes these sorts of moves self-fulfilling to a great degree. There is a very good chance that regardless of what the market does during the day today we will see buyers late in the day who want to be positioned for a gap up on the first day of the new month.
If we take a step back and look at the iShares Russell 2000 (IWM) or PowerShares QQQ (QQQQ) , we clearly have a failed bounce attempt. We broke down starting on Jan. 19, bounced back quite nicely and then broke down again. That is the sort of action that develops into a trend. Even though we may be due for another bounce soon, we have to be very watchful for it to fail.
A change in market character to negative is all about the bounces. When the bounces start to fail, we need to make sure we get out of the way fast.
Conditions are very good for a bounce back today and/or tomorrow, but after that the real test will kick in. If the bulls lose their momentum again, we will need to be extremely careful.
Don't be surprised if we have a good bounce to start this week, but don't be too quick to believe that the market overreacted to Egypt. It isn't about Egypt at all. It is about a market that is extended and in need of some sort of rest.
No positions. -
Euroopa turud:
Saksamaa DAX -0,01%
Prantsusmaa CAC 40 +0,32%
Suurbritannia FTSE100 -0,13%
Hispaania IBEX 35 +1,21%
Rootsi OMX 30 -0,25%
Venemaa MICEX -0,98%
Poola WIG -0,88%
Aasia turud:
Jaapani Nikkei 225 -1,18%
Hong Kongi Hang Seng -0,72%
Hiina Shanghai A (kodu) +1,38%
Hiina Shanghai B (välis) +0,60%
Lõuna-Korea Kosdaq -1,15%
Austraalia S&P/ASX 200 -0,44%
Tai Set 50 -1,89%
India Sensex 30 -0,37% -
January Chicago PMI 68.8 vs 65.0 Briefing.com consensus; December 66.8
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Intel Identifies Chipset Design Error, Implementing Solution; Fourth-quarter, first-quarter and full-year outlook revised to reflect impact of chipset issue ...(stock halted)
Intel cuts Q1 revenue forecast due to chipset error
Intel reducing Q1 and FY11 rev guidance by $300 and $700 mln, respectively -
Intel sees Q1 revs $11.3-12.1 mln vs $11.46 bln Thomson Reuters consensus; down from $11.1-11.9 bln. Gross margin percentage is now expected to be 61 percent, plus or minus a couple percentage points, compared to the previous expectation of 64 percent, plus or minus a couple percentage points. Spending (R&D plus MG&A) is now expected to be approximately $3.6 billion, compared to the previous expectation of approximately $3.4 billion.
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Eurol uus päevasisene tipp $1,3738 tasemel. Eelmisel neljapäeval tehtud enam kui kahe kuu tipp $1,3758 pole kaugel.
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Dallas Fedi tootmisindeks kukkus 12,8 pealt 10,9 punktini jaanuaris, oodati 15,0.
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The Fed purchased $7.72 bln of 2013-2014 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $37.24 bln
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Naelsterling on teinud täna korraliku ralli: GBPUSD +0,98% ja kaupleb hetkel 1,6014 juures.
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PLL tekitas täna turuosalistes küllaga huvi,aga paraku osutus aktsia mittekaubeldavaks. PLL avanes $52 kandist ehk ca 7% ülevalt ning liikus kiirelt $54 alla. Hetkeks tuli uuesti tagasi $53 juurde, käis ära ka $54,40 peal ning hetkel kaupleb $54 kandis ehk ligi 11% plusspoolel. Aktsia oli eelturul saadaval ka $51 kandis, aga kokkuvõtteks võib öelda, et aktsia avanes siiski liiga kõrgelt.
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Chesapeake tõuseb gaasiaurude taustal :)
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Deutsche Bank (DB) reports prelim Q4 net income of EUR 600 mln vs the EUR 785 mln consensus; rev ~EUR 7.4 bln vs the EUR 7.02 bln consensus
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Baidu.com prelim $0.50 vs $0.46 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $371.3 mln vs $361.03 mln Thomson Reuters consensus
BIDU järelturul kauplemas 8% plusspoolel, ca $116 kandis. -
Zerohedge.com avaldas taaskord huvitavaid uudised võlakirjaturult – 2s30s ehk teisisõnu 2-aastase ja 30-aastase USA riiklike võlakirjade spread moodustas täna kõikide aegade tipu ehk 400.6 protsendipunkti. Taaskord tuleb tunnistada, et QE2 ei ole just kõike õnnestunum programm, kuna Fedi esmärgiks peaks olema eelkõige pikaajalise laenumäära alandamine (kinnisvaraturu upitamine). Nii mõnedki USA investeerimispankurid, kellega olen seda teemat hiljuti arutanud on kindlal arvamusel, et kevadel tuleb uus QE just hüpoteeklaenu intressimäära alandamiseks ning hääbuva kinnisvaraturu elavdamiseks. Senikaua võib aga kasutada sama strateegiat - müüa 30-aastast võlakirja lühikeseks ja osta sama summa eest lühiajalisi võlakirju.
