Börsipäev 9. veebruar
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Väga olulist mõju Hiina intressimäärade tõstmine turgudele eile ei avaldanud, kui S&P 500 lõpetas neljandat järjestikust päeva plussis. Täna hommikul on aga Aasia indeksid kergelt madalamal kauplemas ning USA indeksite futuurid 0,15-0,3% punasesse liikunud.
Makrouudiste osas ei tõota täna olla ühtegi olulist sündmust peale Bernanke kõne, mis võiks turgude sentimenti mõjutada. USA keskpanga president võtab Eesti aja järgi kell 17.00 sõna majanduse, töökohtade loomise ja riigieelarve teemal. -
Paljud analüüsimajad on viimasel ajal USA tänavust majanduskasvu prognoosi kergitanud, teiste seas tegi seda eile ka Deutsche Bank, kes tõstis ootuse 3,3% pealt 4,3% peale. Lisaks luges analüüsimaja julgustavaks töötusemäära langust jaanuaris, ajendades neid langetama 2011. aasta lõpu töötuse taseme 8,8% pealt 7,8% peale.
Based on the mix in Q4 2010 real GDP, which showed 7.1% growth in final sales but only a $7B increase in inventory building, we should see significantly more inventory accumulation this quarter, enough to propel output up to +4.5% (see chart below). The combination of strengthening demand and negligible inventory levels means that the restocking of goods should proceed at a faster pace this year relative to what we initially expected. Certainly, this is what the January ISM survey appears to be telling us—the headline figure posted its highest reading in since May 2004. All of the subcomponents increased, and new orders, the most forward-looking component, made a new cyclical high.
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Reuters kirjutab, et suurim McDonald`si litsentsivõtja Arcos Dorados (tegutseb Argentiinas) kavatseb üsna varsti börsile tulla. Firma on väidetavalt juba pankadega ühendust võtnud ning Arcos Dorados võib New York`i börsil alustada kauplemist aprillis.
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Kas see oleks siis nagu arenevate turgude MCD? Iseenesest mõnus ju. Kuna seal regioonis on kiirem kasv, siis see osa firmast kasvab ka kiiremini. Kes soovib kasvu, sellele peaks meeldima.
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momentum, võib nii öelda küll, et on arenevate turgude MCD.
Arcos Dorados is the largest restaurant operator in Latin America and the biggest McDonald’s franchise in the world. It is a Latin American company which operates in more than 3,200 McDonald’s points of sale in Latin America, with 1,800 restaurants, 1,217 kiosks and 263 McCafes distributed in 28 countries and territories (operating directly in Argentina, Aruba, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Curacao, Ecuador, Guadalupe, French Guyana, Martinique, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Puerto Rico, Saint Thomas, Saint Croix, Uruguay and Venezuela, and indirectly by lending advice to brand licensees in the Bahamas, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua, Paraguay, the Dominican Republic, Saint Martin, Saint Croix and Suriname). -
USA MBA kinnisvaralaenude taotlused -5,5% (4. veebr) vs +11,3% eelmisel nädalal.
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Täna on Merrill Lynch ja Citi analüütikud väljas positiivsete kommentaaridega Open Table (OPEN) kohta.
Citi kinnitab oma „osta“ reitingut ja tõstab hinnasihi $80 pealt $108 peale ja ka Merrill Lynch kinnitab „osta“ soovitust ning tõstab hinnasihi $81 pealt $97 peale.
Eile peale turgu teatas OPEN oma kvartalitulemused, mis osutusid väga heaks:
OpenTable Inc Reports Q4 $0.33 (non-GAAP) v $0.22e, R $30.8M v $30Me
Citi analüütikute sõnul on ettevõttel kasvamiseks veel mitmeid võimalusi:
Multiple Growth Opportunities – 1) OpenTable Mobile seated 1.9MM diners in Q4; 2) OPEN signed up about 421 restaurants to its new OpenTable Connect offering in Q4; 3) Recent Toptable acquisition accelerates path to International profitability; and 4) Advertising, Private Dining, Spotlight or daily deal coupons, and Phone reservation as a new channel thru Table Maestro acquisition – all material growth opportunities.
Teiste hulgas toovad analüütikud esile broneerimine läbi mobiili, uued lepingud restoranidega ja hiljutine Toptable ülevõtmine.
Ka Merrill Lynchi analüütikud tõstavad firma prognoose ning on veendunud, et firma kasv jätkub ning OPEN-i lahenduse klientidele ja restoranidele koguvad aina rohkem populaarsust.
As the virtuous cycle plays out, OpenTable should continue to benefit from the fact that more restaurants attract more users, and more users attract more restaurants. The company grew NA seats per ERB restaurant an estimated 19% y/y in 4Q to 1,330, and assuming just 10% (or less) are incremental from being on the OpenTable website, we see little/no financial incentive for restaurants to leave OpenTable. OpenTable is early in the reservation penetration story with just 9% of reservations Online in North America and a much lower percentage internationally. Finally, the company continues to find innovative new products for its restaurants and consumers including Spotlight, Table Maestro, and OpenTable Connect in 2010, and we would expect more products to help restaurants increase their yields in the future.
Tegemist pole upgrade`ga, aga silma jäid need note`d mulle seetõttu, et mõlemad uued hinnasihid on kõrgemad, kui eelmine street high ja teiseks on aktsias märkimisväärne kogus lühikeseks müüjaid sees ( 43%). Kõigi eelduste kohaselt võiks aktsia täna kõrgemale liikuda, aga rõhutan siia juurde veel korra, et tegemist pole upgrade`ga ja sellest tulenevalt võib reaktsioon nõrgaks jääda. -
Gapping up
n reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PRCP +23.2% (also upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Barrington), PLAB +17%, WWWW +13.5%, ANDE +10.7%, PROJ +9.2%, CHBT +6.1% (ticking higher), CBL +5.9%, TWO +5.8% (ticking higher), BGC +5.7%, PBI +4.6%, ATML +4%, BWLD +3.7%, DIS +3.7%, ASYS +3.7%, CSGS +3.6% (light volume), TTWO +3.2%, RL +3.0%, ETM +2.5%, SYT +2.4%, SVM +2.3%, SBGI +2.1% (light volume), AGNC +1.3%, KO +1.2%, ANR +0.8% (ticking higher).
M&A news: DSW +11.1% and RVI +10.4% (DSW and RVI announce merger transaction; Shares of RVI will convert into Class A DSW common shares at an exchange ratio of 0.435 DSW shares per each RVI share),
Select rare earth names trading higher: SHZ +2.3%, AVL +1.3% (Enters Into Negotiation Agreement With the Deninu K'ue First Nation regarding the development of the Nechalacho rare earth elements deposit Thor Lake, NWT), REE +1.2%.
Other news: JOE +10.2% (The St. Joe Co to consider financial and strategic alternatives, incl merger or sale, J/V, asset sales ), JDSU +2.5% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), MNTA +2.1% (awarded U.S. patent for methods of preparing Glatiramer Acetate), EC +1.1% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), NOK +1.1% (reports that the CEO sent memo urging change ), HBC +1% (early strength attributed to positive comments from tier 1 firm), CIB +0.9% (Cramer makes positive comments on MadMoney), EPD +0.6% (modestly rebounding; co provided update on incident at Mont Belvieu; main facilities not damanged and remain operational),.
Analyst comments: KBH +2.2% (ticking higher; initiated with Outperform RBC), PUK +2.1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Societe Generale), BIDU +1.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC), CNW +1.2% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse). -
Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: SMSI -32.6%, SWIR -21% (also downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan), USNA -19.2%, MOTR -18.3%, BCDS -9.6% (thinly traded), MDMD -9% (light volume), PNCL -8.5%, DSCM -6.4%, MICC -5.9%, CKSW -5.5%, CLCT -5%, QUIK -4.3%, NKA -4.3%, HIBB -3.7%, IR -3.6%, STO -3.5%, (light volume), VSAT -3.4%, WPRT -3.2%, ULTI -3.2% (also downgrade to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), NTGR -2.3%, ILMN -2.1% (also downgraded to Hold at Auriga U.S.A), SNY -1.6%, TCK -1.4%..
Select financial related names showing modest weakness: IRE -3.4%, ING -1.7%, DB -0.9%, BBVA -0.9%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: SLT -2.5%, RIO -1.3%, BHP -1.3%, BBL -1.3%, MT -1.3%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: PTR -3.8% (ticking lower), CEO -3.8%, SSL -2.1%, REP -1.0%, SD -0.9%, WFT -0.9%, PBR -0.8%.
Other news: ZLCS -9.1% (discloses an equity distribution agreement with Wedbush Securities under which co may offer and sell its common stock having aggregate sales proceeds of up to $20 mln), QLTI -5.9% (announces interim results from Phase II trial show that O-PPDS study model could not generate definitive clinical results), CAGC -4.3% (still checking for anything specific), TTM -3.4% (traded lower overseas), WFC -2.3% (announces CFO Howard Atkins to retire; CAO Timothy Sloan appointed new CFO; transition effective in August), AIG -1.2% (expects to record a $4.1 bln charge, net of $446 mln in discount and loss sensitive business premium adjustments, for the fourth quarter of 2010), VQ -0.6% (priced a 4 mln share common stock offering at $18.75/share).
Analyst comments: NVTL -6.4% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies), KEY -1.4% (ticking lower, downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC). -
Wait for Actual Weakness
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/9/2011 8:48 AM EST
When you reach the top, keep climbing.
-- Proverb
Virtually every reasonable analysis of this market suggests that is due for a pause. Of course, there is nothing reasonable about this market, so that sort of thinking hasn't worked very well, as this market continues to defy skeptics with surprising persistence.
The market action during last few days the market has been particularly disrespectful of the bears as it has made a new high each day on steadily declining volume. That is standard bearish action but it hasn't mattered at all.
Anyone discussing this market lately has no choice but to express some degree of surprise at the persistent strength. Big rallies of this magnitude aren't all that unusual but those exhibiting this degree of persistence and lack of pullbacks are very rare.
On Tuesday, I discussed some of the factors that have made this one-way market even more unusual than the typical bull run. One is the fact that it is such a joyless uptrend. It often seems like the only person who really appreciates this strength is Jim Cramer. Most individual investors have never really felt the love and they continue to sit on the sidelines and be extremely distrustful.
That is not all that surprising since so many market players are lamenting the artificiality of the market behavior. The general consensus is that the Fed's blatant efforts to prop up equity prices by creating a flood of liquidity coupled with high frequency and computerized trading has created an environment with little human emotion. It just doesn't feel very "normal" and that has scared away many folks.
I can go on at some length about the unusual nature of the market action, which may help give us some perspective, but here is important question: How do we deal with this sort of action? By far, the best approach has been blind, bullish faith. If you have simply loaded up and kept looking for reasons to stay that way, you have likely done very well. Any doubts at all about this market have proven costly.
Of course, if you are an aggressive market player it is tough to have blind faith in any market for very long. Even the most determined momentum player has to wonder how much longer this market can defy gravity -- especially as volume declines and we become more extended. Even if you think the trend has much further to go, it is unreasonable not to expect some sort of consolidation or pullback along the way.
The only effective way to deal with this market that won't go down is to stay bullish but be extremely watchful. The long trades are still there but when a turn comes it is likely to catch many by surprise and it will require some fast moves to protect recent gains. The best advice I can give is to not anticipate, but to wait for some actual weakness before becoming more bearish. That doesn't mean you have to stay heavily long and ignore the fact that so many stocks are extended. You have to take some gains into strength and you have to be disciplined in making new buys. However, you can rack up some pretty good profits even in a market that looks as extended as this one. That will give you some padding against losses you are likely to incur by being reactive rather than anticipatory.
We are seeing a little softness this morning, but when the bulls see red, they aren't hesitating to charge. We'll see what the dip-buyers can do. I believe this market will likely top with a sharp intraday reverse, so I am being watchful for that. But, as we all know, anticipating weakness in this market is a losing strategy. -
Kell 17.00 tehakse Finantsportaalile järjekordne restart, mis peaks kasutamise kohalt jääma märkamatuks, kuid igaksjuhuks annan siinkohal sellest siiski teada.
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Dangdang (DANG): Artisan Partners discloses 10.7% stake in 13G filing
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Euro kauplemas 0,6% kõrgemal ja läbis $1,3700 taseme.
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Bernanke kõne ja küsimustele vastamist saab live's vaadata siit.
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AlariÜ
Dangdang (DANG): Artisan Partners discloses 10.7% stake in 13G filing
Kas kommenteeriksite seda natuke pikemalt -
Tavaliselt annab olulise osaluse omandamine aktsia hinnale tuge ning kui see omandaja on kõrgelt hinnatud investor, siis hind kerkib märgatavalt. Müümise puhul sama efekt vastupidi.
Artisan Partners
http://www.artisanfunds.com/ -
2-10-yr spread trading just below all-time steepest of 293.9
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Nasdaq OMX Group sai SECilt loa, et turule tuua niinimetatud alfa optsioonid, millega investorid saavad panustada populaarsete aktsiate (Apple, Citigroup jne.) tootlusele ülejäänud aktsiaturu suhtes. Nasdaq ei ole seadnud tähtaega, mil optsioonidega kauplemine algab, oktoobris loodeti kauplemist alustada 2011. aasta alguses. (link)
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OPEN-il leidis täna peale avanemist aset korralik sell-off. Kui eelturul võiks märgata mõningast ostuhuvi ja aktsia osteti $87 taseme ehk ca 2,5% plussi, siis peale avanemist müüdi aktsia loetud minutitega ligi 5% miinusesse ja OPEN käis ära isegi $81 all. Peale seda aktsia taastus väga kiirelt ning jõudis tagasi eelturu tasemele ehk üle $87. Hetkel kaupleb aktsia siiski 1,5% miinuspoolel ehk $84 kandis.
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$24 bln 10-yr Note Auction Results: 3.665% (Expected 3.725%); Bid/Cover 3.23x (Prior 3.30x, 10-auction avg 3.13x); Indirect Bidders 71.3% (Prior 53.6%, 10-auction avg 46.3%)
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Dangdang (DANG): Morgan Stanley discloses 5.2% stake in 13G filing
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Cisco Systems prelim $0.37 vs $0.35 Thomson Reuters consensus; revs $10.4 bln vs $10.23 bln Thomson Reuters consensus
CSCO on peale tulemusi tõsise müügiarve alla sattunud, aktsia kaupleb järelturul juba üle 10% miinuses ehk $20 all. -
Portugali 10-aastase võlakirja tulusus tõusis kõikide aegade tippu ehk ca 7.3% peale. Knight Capital avaldas täna finantsmeedias arvamust, et käesoleval aastal on euroalale keerulisemaks kuuks märts. Esiteks, peagi peetakse Iirimaal (25. veebruaril) valimised, mis võib tõsiselt mõjutada riigi valmisolekut kiiresti reageerida probleemidele. Samas aegub märtsis ka hulk riiklike võlakirju, mida tuleb nii-öelda "üle rullida".
