Börsipäev 10. veebruar
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Kuigi valdava osa eilsest päevast kauplesid USA suuremad indeksid miinuspoolel, siis vahetult enne sulgemist suurenenud ostuhuvi aitas Dow Jones indeksil koguni plussis lõpetada ning sellega pikendada järjestikust tõusuperioodi kaheksa päevani – enim alates möödunud aasta märtsist. S&P500 ja Nasdaq sulgusid aga 0,3% madalamal.
Tänasesse börsipäeva mahub mitmeid makromajanduslikke uudiseid. Muuhulgas on oma detsembrikuu tööstustoodangu muutuse raporteerinud Prantsusmaa, näidates oodatud -0,3%lise kahanemise asemel 0,3% kasvu. Itaalia avaldab vastavad numbrid kell 11.00 ja Suurbritannia kell 11.30. Tähelepanu võiks saada ka Inglise keskpanga kohtumine. Kuigi intressimäära tõstmist ei oodata, tekitab turgude jaoks veidi ärevust teadmine, et eelmisel kohtumisel hääletas 25 baaspunktise tõstmise poolt juba kaks liiget. Pärast seda liigub fookus USA möödunud nädala esmaste töötuabiraha taotluste numbrile (kell 15.30), mille osas prognoosib konsensus vähenemist 415K pealt 410K peale. Kestvate taotluste suurusjärguks oodtakse 3900K vs 3925K eelneval korral. Kell 17.00 avaldatakse aga detsembrikuu hulgimüügi varud.
Euroopa on avanenud 0,2% punases ning USA indeksite futuurid teevad päeva põhjasid 0,2-0,6% miinuses. -
USA dollar on täna võimsalt taastumas: dollari indeks +0,35%.
AUDUSD -0,76% (1,0044); EURUSD -0,61% (1,3646); GBPUSD -0,27% (1,6057); NZDUSD -0,57% (0,7674); USDCAD +0,4% (0,9972); USDCHF +0,62% (0,9635); ja USDJPY +0,37% (82,64). -
Šveitsi tarbijahinnad langesid jaanuaris 0,4% vs oodatud 0,2% langus (M/M). Aastases lõikes tõusid hinnad 0,3% vs oodatud 0,6%. Šveitsi frank kauplemas USA dollari vastu 0,6% madalamal 0,9635 tasemel.
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Öösel avaldati Austraalia töötururaport, millest selgus, et jaanuaris lisandus kokku 24 tuhat uut töökohta (oodati 17,5 tuhat), kuid kogu kasv tuli osalise tööajaga töökohtadest; täiskohaga töökohti jäi hoopis 8 tuhande võrra vähemaks, mis on esimene langus kolme kuu jooksul. Ühtlasi näitab see ettevõtjate vähest usku Austraalia majanduse väljavaadetele. Põhjuse selleks annab omalt poolt ka Hiina - Austraalia suurim kaubanduspartner - kes üritab oma inflatsiooni kontrolli alla saada, tõstes intressimäärasid.
Austraalia dollar on täna väga tugeva müügisurve all, kaubeles USA dollari vastu 0,85% madalamal $1,0036 taseme juures. -
Inglismaa keskpank jättis vastavalt ootustele intressimäära 0,5% peale ja stiimulprogrammi mahu £200 miljardi peale.
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Orexigen (OREX), mille kaalualandav ravim Contrave USA ravimametilt jaanuari lõpus eitava vastuse sai, peab hakkama püksirihma koomale tõmbama, sest tulevik paistab firma jaoks üsna ebakindel olema.
Tänane FierceBiotech.com kirjutab, et ettevõtte on sunnitud ligi pooled (40%) oma töötajatest vallandama.
OREX-i CEO ütleb küll, et nad usuvad endiselt Contrave potentsiaali, aga lähitulevik ilmselt selgust ega kiiret lahendust ei too ja seetõttu tuleb oma vahendid kriitlise pilguga üle vaadata.
OREX kaupleb eelturul üle 10% miinuses, $3 kandis. -
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: MCZ +24%, ALU +15.7% (also upgraded to Add from Sell at WestLB ), SCSS +10.6%, WFMI +9.8%, ENS +7.5%, SFSF +6.3%, RAS +4.8%, YMI +4.4%, S +3.7%, GT +2.7%, ARRS +2.4% (also upgraded to Buy from Hold at Needham), RICK +2.1% (light volume), MNTA +1.5%, SNN +1.3%.
M&A news: SRX +3.4% (continued strength following yesterday's M&A speculation).
Other news: ECA +9.1% (to establish joint venture with PetroChina through sale of 50 percent interest in Cutbank Ridge business assets for C$5.4 billion; also reported earnings), ARTC +4.1% (ArthroCare announces settlement of SEC investigation), DSCI +3.6% (continued strength), TFM +2.7% (thinly traded; ticking higher following WFMI results), QCOR +2.7% (will replace Sonic Solutions in the S&P SmallCap 600 index), MYGN +2.4% (announces that a study published in Lancet Oncology shows the Company's 46-gene PROLARIS molecular diagnostic test significantly predicts prostate cancer outcome), RL +0.5% (ticking higher; strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), ISIG +0.4% (settles with news america for $125 million; parties enter into exclusive 10-year business agreement). -
Initial Claims 383K vs 410K Briefing.com consensus; prior revised to 419K from 415K
Continuing Claims falls to 3.888 mln from 3.935 mln -
Danske käsi ei käi kõige paremini
COPENHAGEN Feb 10 (Reuters) - Denmark's biggest financial institution Danske Bank reported below-forecast profits, warned of high impairment charges in Ireland and said it would raise 20 billion crowns ($3.7 billion) in new share capital to keep it among the best-capitalised banks in Europe.
The contrasting results released on Thursday, and earlier strong profits from major Swedish banks, reflected the different pace of economic recovery, with Denmark clearly lagging its Nordic neighbours.
Danske Bank's shares slid 10.2 percent by 1018 GMT, underperforming a 2.2 percent drop in the Nordic banking index -
USA töötuabiraha taotluste numbris üllatuslangus -Arvopaperi
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Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: PACR -15.4%, EZCH -12.3%, TQNT -12.1% (also downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James), AMKR -12.1%, NUAN -10.1%, CSCO -10.0% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray, downgraded to Hold at Stifel), ATVI -6.8%, TKLC -6.2%, EPIC -6% (light volume), TEX -5.7%, FLIR -5.3% (also announces first-ever quarterly dividend of $0.06 per share; announces new share repurchase program), CS -5%, ALL -4.6% (also downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James ), DEO -4.6%, EQIX -3%, RIO -2.6%, PEP -2.2%, AKAM -2.1%, MET -1.9%, EXBD -1.5%, SHPGY -1%, AAP -0.8% (light volume), .
Select financial related names showing weakness with CS results weighing on the sector overseas: NBG -4.8%, STD -3.5%, BCS -2.6%, AEG -2.6%, DB -2.3%, IRE -2.2%, UBS -1.8%, HBC -1.5%, RBS -1.2%.
Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: HL -3.1%, SLT -2.3%, GFI -2.0%, PAAS -1.9%, NG -1.9%, EGO -1.9%, GSS -1.8%, SLW -1.7%, GOLD -1.6%, SLV -1.3%, BBL -1%, AU -1%, GLD -0.8%, BHP -0.8%, .
Rare earth names trading lower: REE -2.2%, MCP -2.2%, AVL -1.9%.
Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: SDRL -2.7%, PTR -2.3%, REP -2.0%, FTO -1.8%, WFT -1.7%, HES -1.4%, TOT -1.1%, HAL -1.0%.
Select coal names under pressure: ICO -2.2%, PUDA -1.6%, PCX -1.3%.
Other news: IDIX -25.2% (reports FDA removes the full clinical hold on IDX184, and places it on partial clinical hold; FDA places GSK2248761 on clinical hold; downgraded to Perform at Oppenheimer, downgraded to Sell at ThinkEquity, downgraded to Hold at Stifel Nicolaus), MRNA -8% (intends to offer and sell units consisting of shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase common stock in an underwritten public offering), LLNW -3.7% (trading lower with AKAM), NOK -3.7% (still checking; reports out overnight that the co is nearing partnership with MSFT), CYS -3.1% (plans to make a public offering of 20 mln shares of its common stock), STM -3% (trading lower with TQNT), JNPR -2.6% (trading lower following CSCO results), OREX -2.6% (announces corporate realignment; co will cut ~40% of workforce; co expects ~$2.6 mln in charges as a result), TEF -2.6% (co is looking to purchase stake in Polkomtel), PMT -2% (announces proposed offering of common shares of up to 8 mln shares), MGM -1.9% (Hong Kong IPO (in a JV with Pansy Ho) sought at the end of February could generate greater than originally expected $800 mln, according to reports ), WSO -1.6% (weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), TX -1.5% (to repurchase shares from usiminas concurrently with closing of secondary public offering ), ITT -1.2% (trading lower; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade), .
Analyst comments: ENER -3.5% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Citigroup), AIXG -2.6% (downgraded to Add from Buy at WestLB), HUM -1.1% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer), WMT -0.5% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS). -
Be Careful Out There
By Rev Shark
RealMoney.com Contributor
2/10/2011 8:52 AM EST
By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of its citizens.
-- John Maynard Keynes
The primary driving force behind this market has been the easy money policies of the Federal Reserve. The quantitative easing programs have resulted in a flood of cheap capital that has had few other places to go other than the stock market. The Fed's goal is to inflate stocks, which will bolster confidence and, hopefully, trickle down and help create new jobs.
Ben Bernanke assures us that this approach will work because inflation is low and he is certain that he can reverse his policies at exactly the right point. As long as prices aren't rising, we shouldn't be worried about all this cheap cash that is sloshing around.
The Fed uses a core measure of inflation that excludes food and energy and has a component called "owner's equivalent rent." This measure shows that housing prices are falling because if you were just going to rent your home rather than actually own it, the cost of doing so is still declining.
Unfortunately, in the real world, rising food and energy costs are very evident and the cost of owning a home is not declining. In addition, interest rates have started to inch up lately. So despite the official government figures, signs of inflation are in the air.
the U.K.'s equivalent of the Federal Reserve is becoming concerned about inflation due to sharp increases in energy and commodity costs. This is triggering the weakness we are seeing this morning. In December, the U.K. saw an annualized inflation rate of 3.7%, which was well ahead of the anticipated rate of 2%.
This market has been riding a gusher of liquidity created by quantitative easing but at some point, that is going to reverse and it will be a major challenge for the market to navigate -- especially if the economic recovery is not really booming. Inflation concerns are going to spook this market from time to time, even though the Fed assures us that there are no signs of it. We are seeing one of those scares this morning.
In addition to the inflation issue, we have a few other concerns this morning as well. Earnings last night from Cisco (CSCO) and Akamai Technologies (AKAM) were lackluster and interest rates on Portuguese debt have spiked.
Of course, the market is still quite technically extended with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now up eight days in a row and the major indices badly in need of some consolidation. Yesterday, the dip-buyers bailed the market out of some trouble several times and the indices managed a good close. But those later buyers are finding themselves trapped this morning.
We'll see what the dip-buyers can do with the weakness at the open this morning but we definitely have some better excuses for selling today. Be careful out there: We are seeing some problems popping up, and with the market so badly in need of consolidation, it is not going to be easy to just shrug them off.
At the time of publication, Rev Shark had no positions in the stocks mentioned, but positions can change at any time. -
Capstone Investments analüütikud alustavad täna Yahoo! (YHOO) katmist.
Capstone Investments annab YHOO-le „osta“ soovituse koos $24 hinnasihiga.
Yahoo`s operations are worth much more than the market`s implied $5,64 per share value. Although the company`s search adrevtising business has been crucified by Google (GOOG), Yahoo`s display advertising operations are accelerating and its overall costs are contained.
CEO Carol Bartz has and will continue to ruthlessly cut costs to maintain profitability. Yahoo has a total $11,16 in share in net cash and ist publicly-traded stakes in Yahoo Japan (35% and Alibaba. Com ( 40%). The latter`s parent company Alibaba Group, alos owns severale valuable private compaines in which Yahoo isi n an indirectly beneficiary.
Analüütikud on veendunud, et Yahoo väärtus on märksa suurem, kui konsensus arvab ning seda isegi konservatiivsete prognooside korral. Kuigi Yahoo! Otsingumootor kaotab kaotab Google`le järjepidevalt turgu, siis reklaami vallas ( display advertising ) on olukord kiirelt paranemas. Juhitakse tähelepanu firma CEO püüdlustele kulude kärpimise abil firma kasumlikkust säilitada. Lisaks sellele on firmal raha $11,16 aktsia kohta ning väärtuslikud ärid Aasias ( Alibaba.com, Yahoo Jaapan)
Yahoo`s management and board have turned over. In 2008 Microsoft (MSFT) offered an unsolicited $33 per share for the company. Foolishly, Yahoo`s managementspurned the bid. However, since then the company`s entire management team has been replaced.
In our view, Yahoo`s shares rise if 1) CEO Bartz leads a business resurrection ori f 2) a friendly or hostile aquirer ohver $24 + per share for Yahoo.
We also believe that the stock`s downside is limited to $13,89 (17%) because at this price the company typically aggressively repurchases its shares. We are exited about Yahoo`s valuation and thus its stock`s price apperciation potential, even under our conservative scenario.
Analüütikud usuvad, et firma on suhteliselt tõenäoline ülevõtu kandidaat ning arvavad, et alla $24 ülevõtuhind mingil juhul ei oleks.
Kuigi antud call on suhteliselt tundmatult analüüsimajalt ning nad alles laustavad Yahoo katmist, siis silma jäi mulle see sellepärast, et YHOO ülevõtu teema on olnud päevakorral nüüd juba mõnda aega ning näiteks legendaarne fondijuht Doug Kass on veendunud, et YHOO võtetakse käesoleval aastal üle ja hinnasiht $24 on new street high. Ma ei usu, et selles call`s täna trade sees on, aga pikemas perspektiivis võib aktsia kõrgemale liikuda. -
NBC News reporting that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will step down as Egypt's leader, Omar Suleiman to take over.
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There is no POMO today, the Fed will release its new POMO schedule at 2 p.m. ET
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Arvestades seda, et YHOO call oli täna suhteliselt nõrk, siis aktsia liikus üllatavalt hästi. Eelturul kauples aktsia $16,35 kandis ja peale avanemist on aktsia vaikselt üles tiksunud ja hetkel kaupleb $16,60 kandis ehk 1% plusspoolel. Hoian aktsial lähikuudel silma peal.
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AAPL käis täpselt $360 ära ja nüüd vajunud juba 1.6% langusesse, kui staarid ära vajuvad tuleb turg järgi ja täna turg üsna raske.
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January Treasury Budget -$49.8 bln vs -$59.5 bln Briefing.com consensus; Prior -$42.6 bln
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Research In Motion spikes to highs on heavy volume; Bloomberg TV reporting co is planning for Playbook software to run GOOG's Android App
