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Börsipäev 11. veebruar

Kommentaari jätmiseks loo konto või logi sisse

  • Dow Jones lõpetas eile esimest korda punases pärast kaheksapäevast tõususeeriat, tõsi seda küll üsna marginaalse muutuse juures (-0,1%), kui survet tekitas Cisco -14%line kukkumine ja nõrkus tarbijasektori aktsiates. Nasdaq ja S&P 500 suutsid aga päeva lõpu tõusuga jõuda kergesse plussi.

    Kuigi Aasia liikumine on hommikul olnud üsna erisuunaline siis Euroopa on avanenud miinuspoolel ning USA futuurid liiguvad hetkel samuti 0,4-0,5% punases.

    Tänasesse päeva kuigi olulisi makrouudiseid ei mahu. Mõni hetk tagasi avalikustas Hispaania oma neljanda kvartali SKT muutuse, mis osutus oodatud 0,1% asemel veidi paremaks (+0,2% QoQ). Edasi langeb fookus juba USA poole peal detsembrikuu kaubandusbilansile (kell 15.30) ja kell 16.55 Michigani tarbijausalduse indeksile.
  • Värske USA väikeinvestorite sentimendi küsitluse järgi vähenes pullide osakaal 2,1 protsendipunkti 49,4% peale, samal ajal jäi nende investorite osakaal samaks, kes aktsiaturgudel järgneva kuue kuu jooksul langust ootavad. Seega pullide arvelt suurenes neutraalne sentiment.
  • Risk planning gone mad“ – niimoodi võttis olukorra kokku üks Suurbritannia pangajuht. Nimelt on mitmed pangajuhid rahulolematud sealse finantsinspektsiooni, Financial Services Authority (FSA), tegevusega. Pangajuhtide sõnul on FSA oma stressitestidega üle piiri läinud, paludes pankadel arvestada mitmete ebatavaliste stsenaariumitega. Näiteks tehakse arvutusi, mis juhtub kui seagrippi haigestub enamik panga töötajatest, kus otsitakse vastuseid küsimusele, kuidas pank edasi tegutseb, ja kes pangaautomaate rahaga varustaks. Samuti on palutud arvestada riigipöördega Ladina-Ameerikas ja suuremõõtmelise kaubandussõjaga Hiina ja USA vahel. Lisaks tuleb ühe stsenaariumi kohaselt arvestada ka sellega, kui Islandi vulkaanipurse põhjustab kuudepikkuse lennuseisaku. Pangajuhtide sõnul põhjustab viimsepäeva stsenaariumite läbimängimine lugematute tundide ulatuses aja raiskamist. (link)
  • Suurbritannia jaanuari tootjahinnaindeksid: input 1,7% vs oodatud vs oodatud 1,4% (M/M) ja 13,4% vs oodatud 12,7% (Y/Y). Output 1,0% vs oodatud 0,5% (M/M) ja 4,8% vs oodatud 4,4% (Y/Y).
  • Euro on teist päeva väga tugevalt kukkumas: kolmapäevasest tipust $1,3745 tasemelt tulnud alla ligi 1,6% ja kaupleb hetkel $1,3520 juures.
  • Naelsterling on hoolimata oodatust kõrgematest tootjahinnaindeksitest surve all ja kaupleb dollari vastu 0,62% madalamal allpoolt $1,6000 piiri. Viimati kauples GBPUSD seal tasemel jaanuari lõpus.
  • Täna on Morgan Stanley analüütikud väljas positiivse reitingumuutusega Healthsouth (HLS) kohta.
    Morgan Stanley tõstab HLS reitingu „hoia“ pealt „osta“ peale koos $28 hinnasihiga.


    Consensus forecasts will rise in 2011. HLS is reporting earnings next Thursday night. We expect theywill reiterate their 2.5-3.5% volume outlook for 2011 given historical conservatism. However, in light of Q4/10 trends and our expectations for a slight utilization uptick in 2011(as already factored in the rest of our managed care and provider forecasts), we believe HLS can reach the higher end of this range as 2011 unfolds. Our revised model forecasts 3.5% discharge growth off better 2010 levels.

    Firma teatab oma kvartalitulemused järgmisel nädalal ning analüütikud usuvad, et lõppenud kvartali trendide valguses tuleb aasta firma jaoks parem, kui konsensus ootab. Firma enda prognoos mahtude osas on 2,5%-3-5% kasvu 2011. Aastaks, aga analüütikud ütlevad, et see võib ulatuda firma prognoosi ülemisse äärde.

    Solid volume growth should allow HLS to leverage its industry high margins (north of 20%). Expense controls have been impressive YTD despite weak utilization industry wide and operating momentum should continue into 2011. Expected Q4/10 cost trends are encouraging, with SW&B expense expected to come in less than 50% of revenues despite merit pay increases and recent de novos (hospitals remain at full staffing while productivity ramps).

    Mahtude kasv peaks lubama firmal saavutada oma sektori kõrged marginaalid ( 20% +). Lisaks sellele on ka kulude kontroll olnud märkimisväärselt hea, vaatamata nõrgale utilisatsioonile.

    Risk-reward skewed toward our bull case. On the heels of stronger than expected Q4/10 trends for HLS (with volumes at +5.3%) and continued solid cost leverage, we believe the risk-reward is now skewed toward our bull case ( price target $32) should volumes exceed current consensus expectations, which we believe are conservative.

    Analüütikud usuvad, et aktsia puhul on riski-kasumi suhe nüüd pigem liikumas nende bull-case suunal, mille puhul oleks hinnasihiks $32.

    Just viimane lõik oli see, mis mu tähelepanu selle call`i juures esimesena köitis.Teiseks usuvad analüütikud, et konsensuse ootused on liiga konservatiivsed, mille põhjal võiks eeldada, et aktsia näeb mõningast ostuhuvi täna, aga paraku ei saa HLS puhul just öelda, et oleks tegemist kõige parema kauplemisaktsiaga .
    Hetkel kaupleb HLS eelturul $23 peale ehk 1,8% plusspoolel.

  • EXPE on tulemustejärgselt -13% languses $22.34 tasemel ja DB on langetanud reitingu osta pealt hoia peale ning hinnasiht $25. Tõenäoliselt saab ka PCLN mõned % müüki.
  • December Trade Balance -$40.6 bln vs -$40.4 bln Briefing.com consensus; prior -$38.3 bln
  • Gapping up
    In reaction to strong earnings/guidance: PDEX +21.6%, FALC +17.3%, STMP +9.7%, NBIX +9%, RAX +7.5% (ticking higher), PNRA +6.7%, WBC +5.3% (light volume), TTM +4.4%, CMG +3.3% (has pulled back overnight following sharp jump higher on earnings; weakness attributed to tier 1 firm downgrade and downgraded to Underperform from Mkt Perform at Morgan Keegan), WMGI +2.9% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord Genuity).

    Other news: VITA +22.7% (receives FDA clearance for Vitoss bimodal bone graft substitute), ATSC +11% (awarded $238 mln IDIQ contract from U.S. Army), ELX +9.1% (still checking), CLSN +9.9% (DMC unanimously recommended that the trial continue enrollment in pivotal Phase III clinical study of ThermoDox in combination with radio frequency ablation for primary liver cancer), BCRX +3.5% (trading higher; Hearing strength attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), NXY +3.2% (still checking), NAT +3.1% (still checking), SU +2.1% (still checking), HLS +1.8% (attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), SAP +1.3% (still checking for anything specific), ICFI +1.2% (wins $107.6 million contract to support U.S. Environmental Protection Agency), F +1.4% (to reduce debt by an additional $3 billion through trust preferred securities redemption), DEO +0.9% (light volume; attributed to tier 1 firm upgrade), MENT +0.6% (saw spike in late trading today following reports that the co retained advisor).

    Analyst comments: AGNC +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Keefe Bruyette).
  • Kanada detsembrikuu kaubandusbilansi ülejääk (v.a teenused) C$3 miljardit vs oodatud -C$0,3 miljardit. Eelmisel kuul oli puudujääk C$0,1 miljardit. USDCAD -0,23% ja kaubeldakse 0,9930 taseme juures.
  • Teatavasti sai MannKind (MNKD) alles hiljuti juba teise pettumuse osaliseks, kui USA ravimiamet taaskord firma diabeediravimi Afrezza tagasi lükkas. Nüüd on siis selge, et ka firma asutaja ja CEO Al Mann on alla andnud ning lõpetab firma rahastamise. Adam Feuerstein arvab, et loobuma peaksid ka investorid.
    TheStreet.com veebilehel kirjutab Adam Feuerstein, et firma vajab hädasti raha ning isegi peale ligi 50% töötajate vallandamist on ettevõttel raha ainult 10 kuuks.
    Kui eile toimunud pressikonverentsil Mann`i käest küsiti, kas ta on valmis firmasse veel oma isiklikku raha juurde panema (Mann on firmasse investeerinud juba ligi $1 miljardit), siis vastas Mann üsna otsekoheselt, et ei ole.
    Feuerstein arvab, et see oli firma CEO poolt mõistlik ja kainelt kaalutletud otsus ning kui Mann ise ei usu enam firma/ravimi edusse piisavalt, siis ei peaks seda tegema enam ka investorid.
    MNKD aktsia on eelturul 11% miinuses ning kaupleb $4,40 kandis.

  • Gapping Down
    In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: MNKD -15%, EXPE -13.4% (also downgraded at tier 1 firm, downgraded to Hold at The Benchmark Company, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank), NILE -11.8% (also downgraded to Hold from Buy at Citigroup), JOEZ -11.3%, LPSN -11.2%, HOKU -10.9%, LF -5.2% (also downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at Needham), XPO -5.1%, TTMI -4.6%, RSG -4.6%, IM -3.8%, (light volume), BJRI -3.8%, CEPH -3.5% (also downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan, downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray), CGNX -3.1%, TTI -2.6% (light volume), KFT -2.1%, NANO -1.8%, TOT -0.7%. .

    Select financial related names showing weakness: ING -2.5%, BCS -2.2%, AEG -1.7%, DB -1.6%, STD -1.6%, RBS -1.5%, CS -1.4%, HBC -1.2%, BBVA -0.9%, UBS -0.9%.

    A few metals/mining stocks trading modestly lower: MT -2.1%, RIO -1.2%.

    Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: RDS.A -1.4%, REP -1.3%, PTR -1.2%, RIG -0.9%, SDRL -0.9%, E -0.8%.

    Select European drug names are under pressure: SNY -1.9%, AZN -0.8%.

    Other news: NOK -8.1% (Nokia and Microsoft announce partnership; outlines new strategy, introduces new operational structure; provides financial targets), OPTR -6.9% (intends to offer and sell shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering ), STM -3.6% and ERIC -0.8% (trading lower with NOK), AUO -2.3% (traded lower overseas following Jan results), CPE -2.2% (weakness attributed to pricing of offering), ARMH -2.1% (still checking), MCP -1.9% (prices $180 mln 5.50% mandatory convertible preferred offering and prices secondary offering of 13.5 mln shares at $50.00 per share by selling share holders).

    Analyst comments: S -2.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman), GDOT -5.7% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Janney), DF -1.9% (downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo), GT -1.8% (downgraded to Fair Value from Buy at CRT Capital), ECA -1.4% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Macquarie), PEP -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Davenport).
  • Mimi Pham – Weeden & Company: And I guess maybe directly just asking Al, in terms of if the financing options fall through, if there an option still to provide some resources through the Mann group?
    Alfred Mann: I can’t make any commitment at this point. Obviously, I believe in this product, and I have invested in it, because I believe in it, and I have got to find a solution for this.

    Otseselt ta EI ei öelnud.
  • Otseselt "ei" sõna ta küll ei kasutanud, aga ma arvan, et kui ta otsustaks oma raha juurde investeerida, siis poleks ju vaja enam lahendust otsida. See oleks juba olemas.

  • Crazy Time
    By Rev Shark
    RealMoney.com Contributor
    2/11/2011 8:51 AM EST

    Of course I'm crazy, but that doesn't mean I'm wrong.
    -- Robert Anton Wilson

    This market has had some very peculiar action lately, but action yesterday it was particularly crazy. After a gap-down open, we rallied intraday on news the Hosni Mubarak was going to resign the Egyptian presidency, but then we rallied again when he didn't.

    It didn't make much sense and we did see some weakness after hours, but it is a good illustration of how secure the dip-buyers are about their approach. They don't even wait for things to pull back before they rush in and buy the bad news. Bad news just means we are going to get another opportunity to pull back a few cents and then make a new high.

    When a market has the much buoyancy, you obviously have to be extremely careful about trying to fight it. We are technically extended and there are plenty of very good reasons for why we should see some consolidation, but the bulls just keep on pushing. Quite often it feels like the buyers are jumping in because they know that there are so many who want to call a top and they are quite easy to squeeze. Weakness seems to be the equivalent of a blinking neon sign that says "hurry up and buy."

    As I've written many times lately there is only one way to deal with this market. You have to stick with the longs that are working and try not to be overly anticipatory in looking for a reversal. We need some actual price weakness to kick in before you should try doing much on the downside. It is extremely difficult to avoid the temptation to look for a reversal but it has not paid at all to be anticipatory.

    The biggest difficulty this market presents is that it is extremely tough to have confidence that we will continue to go straight up without a pause, but if you haven't had faith and stayed fully invested, it has cost you.

    Not only are the bears tired of this market action, but many bulls are as well. It is not easy to trade when we only go in one direction. There is no opportunity to move in and out of stocks when they never consolidate or pull back and offer new entry points.

    We have some slight softness this morning, but the news flow is rather slow. There are quite a few stocks gapping after earnings reports but there is nothing much that is market-moving.

    We'll be focused on Egypt once again, but this market is treating all news there as good news. The indices are already far above the point they were at when the strife began, so it is illogical that we'd keep going even higher on that news, but that is exactly what happened yesterday.

    Buckle up -- it's crazy time.
  • February University of Michigan Sentiment- prelim 75.1 vs 75.5 Briefing.com consensus; January 74.2
  • NVIDIA trades to HoD; Hearing move attributed to takeover chatter
  • Abercrombie & Fitch ticking higher on pickup in volume; activity attributed to renewed M&A rumor
  • The Fed purchased $7.38 bln of 2016/2018 maturities through Permanent Open Market Operations as dealers looked to put back $24.07 bln
  • Mubarak on väidetavalt Egiptuse presidendi kohalt tagasi astunud...
  • VP Suleiman kohaselt astub Mubarak tagasi ja annab võimu armeele üle.
  • NBC News reporting that it appears that Mubarak was forced out by the military
  • Hommikul sai öeldud, et HLS pole hea kauplemisaktsia ja allolev graafik demonstreerib selle väite paikapidavust ka väga hästi. Aktsia avanes ka natuke liiga kõrgelt ehk $23,27 pealt, 3% plussist ning käis korra ära $23,50 all, aga sealt on aktsia tasapisi allapoole tiksunud ning nüüd on taas jõudnud tagasi oma päeva tipu juurde ehk $23,50 kanti.

  • Alari poolt mainitud NVDA ülevõtu kuulujutt on aktsia viinud juba peaagu 6% plussi. NVDA kaupleb hetkel $24,10 kandis.
  • Kes IMAX-i käekäigu ja plaanide kohta tahab kuulda otse firma CEO käest, siis saab vaadata/kuulata täna hommikul CNBC-s tehtud intervjuud Richard Gelfond`ga.
    Olgu öeldud, et IMAX on ka LHV Pro idee.
  • Hologic (HOLX) spikes to highs on heavy volume; strength attributed to FDA approval of 3-D mammogram device
  • NASDAQ: Silver Lake Investors discloses 5.3% stake in 13G filing
  • Clorox (CLX): Icahn discloses 9.08% stake in 13D filing

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